asia
Its largest lake is so dry, China digs deep to water crops
With China's biggest freshwater lake reduced to just 25% of its usual size by a severe drought, work crews are digging trenches to keep water flowing to one of the country's key rice-growing regions.
The dramatic decline of Poyang Lake in the landlocked southeastern province of Jiangxi had otherwise cut off irrigation channels to nearby farmlands. The crews, using excavators to dig trenches, only work after dark because of the extreme daytime heat, the official Xinhua News Agency reported.
A severe heat wave is wreaking havoc across much of southern China. High temperatures have sparked mountain fires that have forced the evacuation of 1,500 people in the southwest, and factories have been ordered to cut production as hydroelectric plants reduce their output amid drought conditions. The extreme heat and drought have wilted crops and shrunk rivers including the giant Yangtze, disrupting cargo traffic.
Fed by China’s major rivers, Poyang Lake averages about 3,500 square kilometers (1,400 square miles) in high season, but has contracted to just 737 square kilometers (285 square miles) in the recent drought.
As determined by water level, the lake officially entered this year’s dry season Aug. 6, earlier than at any time since records began being taken in 1951. Hydrological surveys before then are incomplete, although it appears the lake may be at or around its lowest level in recent history.
Along with providing water for agriculture and other uses, the lake is a major stopover for migrating birds heading south for the winter.
Read: China and US spar over climate on Twitter
A wide swath of western and central China has seen days of temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) in heat waves that have started earlier and lasted longer than usual.
The heat is likely connected to human-caused climate change, though scientists have yet to do to the complex calculations and computer simulations to say that for certain.
“The heat is certainly record-breaking, and certainly aggravated by human-caused climate change,” said Maarten van Aalst, director of the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre in the Netherlands. “Drought is always a bit more complex.”
The “truly mind-boggling temperatures roasting China” are connected to a stuck jet stream — the river of air that moves weather systems around the world — said Jennifer Francis, a climate scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center in Falmouth, Massachusetts.
She said a an elongated area of relatively high atmospheric pressure parked over western Russia is responsible for both China’s and Europe’s heat waves this year. In China’s case, the high pressure is preventing cool air masses and precipitation from entering the area.
“When hot, dry conditions get stuck, the soil dries out and heats more readily, reinforcing the heat dome overhead even further,” Francis said.
In the hard-hit city of Chongqing, some shopping malls have been told to open only from 4 to 9 p.m. to conserve energy. Residents have been seeking respite in the cool of air raid shelters dating from World War II.
That reflects the situation in Europe and elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere, with high temperatures taking a toll on public health, food production and the environment.
Pakistan's government steps up pressure on ex-PM Imran Khan
The Pakistani government on Tuesday stepped up pressure on former Prime Minister Imran Khan who has been holding mass rallies, seeking to return to office, with an Islamabad court poised to launch contempt proceedings over his verbal threats to a judge at a weekend rally.
Meanwhile, police raided the apartment of Khan's close aide Shahbaz Gill overnight in the Pakistani capital, and took him away in handcuffs for interrogation.
The developments came two days after authorities filed terrorism charges against Khan, escalating political tensions in the country. In a speech at a rally on Saturday, Khan vowed to sue police officers and a female judge, Zeba Chaudhry, and alleged that Gill had been tortured after his initial arrest earlier this month.
Khan, who came into power in 2018 and was ousted in April in a no-confidence vote in Parliament, could be disqualified for life from politics if convicted of insulting Chaudhry. The terrorism charge against him could carry anything from several months to 14 years in prison, the equivalent of a life sentence.
Gill has been charged with treason for his recent anti-army remarks during a show on the private ARY TV in which he urged soldiers and officers to disobey “illegal" orders from military leaders. The treason charge against Gill carries the death penalty under a sedition act that stems from a British colonial-era law. ARY TV remains off-air in Pakistan following that broadcast.
Read: Police file terrorism charges against Pakistan's Imran Khan
Since his ouster, Khan has alleged — without providing evidence — that Pakistan's powerful military took part in a U.S. plot to oust him. Washington, the Pakistani military and the government of Khan's successor, Shahbaz Sharif, have all denied the allegation.
The latest trouble for Khan started at Saturday's rally when he criticized Chaudhry, saying: “You also get ready for it, we will also take action against you. All of you must be ashamed.”
Sharif's government is unhappy with Khan over his threats and although courts usually pardon offenders if they apologize, some politicians have been convicted in the past for disobeying or insulting judges.
It was unclear whether Khan would attend Tuesday's court hearing or send his lawyer.
Ahsan Bhoon, a lawyer who heads the Supreme Court Bar Association of Pakistan, welcomed the proceedings against Khan, saying no one should be allowed to insult a judge or damage the reputation of the judiciary.
Khan came to power promising to break the pattern of family rule in Pakistan. His opponents contend he was elected with help from the powerful military, which has ruled the country for half of its 75-year history.
Since his ouster, Khan has also demanded early elections and vowed to oust Sharif's government through “pressure from the people."
Malaysia top court upholds ex-PM Najib's graft conviction
Former Prime Minister Najib Razak sought Tuesday to remove Malaysia's top judge from the final appeal against his 12-year prison sentence in a graft case linked to the massive looting of the 1Malaysia Development Berhad state fund, saying she may not be impartial.
In a new twist, Najib said in his application that the husband of Chief Justice Maimun Tuan Mat, who is leading a five-member Federal Court bench, had been critical about his leadership over the 1MDB scandal.
In his affidavit read out in court his lawyer, Najib said Zamani Ibrahim had, in a Facebook post right after Najib's ouster in 2018 general elections, concluded that Najib “had siphoned sovereign government funds" into his personal account. Najib said this was “highly disturbing" as it was likely that Zamani influenced Maimun's view on his alleged culpability.
As such, the court's findings may be seen as “tainted with bias, and the public perception of the independence of the judiciary will be in doubt," Najib said in his application.
Prosecutors accused Najib of making the application in bad faith to delay the conclusion of his final appeal.
Also read: Malaysia's ruling party wins big again in state polls
Najib, 69, would become Malaysia’s first former prime minister to be imprisoned if his appeal fails. He has maintained he is innocent and has been out on bail pending his appeals.
His latest move came after the Federal Court last week rebuffed several attempts by Najib to delay the hearing. It rejected his attempt to introduce new evidence that could spark a retrial on allegations of bias by the high court judge who sentenced him in 2020.
The court also refused to postpone the hearing for Najib’s newly appointed lawyers to prepare for the case. Najib’s new lead counsel, Hisyam Teh Poh Teik, then asked to withdraw himself as he wasn’t given time to prepare but the court denied his request.
Hisyam then said he would not make any new submissions in the appeal. Najib has protested that his right to a fair hearing was at stake as he was left with no effective counsel or proper representation in such a case.
The hearing then began Thursday. The prosecution ended their arguments Friday, and his defense is due to start Tuesday.
But at the start of the hearing, Hisyam told the Federal Court the defense has made an application to recuse Maimun and for a new panel to hear the appeal. He said there was a real danger of bias on Maimun's part that would cause her not to be objective and impartial.
Maimun, Malaysia's first female chief justice appointed in 2019, has come under attack on social media from Najib’s supporters. Police arrested a man over the weekend in connection with death threats made against Maimun. Hundreds of Najib's supporters amassed outside the court in a show of support.
Also read: Manpower export to Malaysia resumes after four-year gap
1MDB was a development fund Najib set up shortly after taking power in 2009. Investigators allege at least $4.5 billion was stolen from the fund and laundered by Najib’s associates. Najib was found guilty of abuse of power, criminal breach of trust and money laundering for illegally receiving $9.4 million from SRC International, a former unit of 1MDB.
The 1MDB scandal sparked investigations in the U.S. and several other countries and caused the downfall of Najib’s government in 2018 elections. Najib faces a total of 42 charges in five separate trials linked to 1MDB, and his wife is also on trial on corruption charges.
Still, Najib remains politically influential. His United Malays National Organization leads the current government after defections of lawmakers caused the collapse of the reformist government that won the 2018 polls.
Indiana governor in Taiwan following high-profile US visits
Indiana's Republican governor met with Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen Monday morning, following two recent high-profile visits by U.S. politicians that drew China's ire and Chinese military drills that included firing missiles over the island.
Gov. Eric Holcomb arrived Sunday evening in Taiwan for a four-day visit that will focus on economic exchange, particularly semiconductors, according to a statement from his office.
His visit is coming at a tense moment for Taiwan, China and the U.S. after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan earlier this month. China claims self-ruled Taiwan as its own territory and views exchanges with foreign governments as an infringement on its claims.
Tsai acknowledged the tensions in her opening remarks ahead of their meeting Monday morning and welcomed further exchanges.
“In the midst of this, Taiwan has been confronted by military threats from China, in and around the Taiwan Strait. At this moment, democratic allies must stand together and boost cooperation in all areas," Tsai said. “Building on our existing foundation of collaboration, I look forward to our supporting one another, and advancing hand in hand, forging closer relations and creating even deeper cooperation.”
Read: US to hold trade talks with Taiwan, island drills military
In response to Pelosi's visit, China's military held several days of exercises that included warplanes flying toward the island and warships sailing across the midline of the Taiwan Strait, an unofficial buffer between the island and mainland.
China also imposed visa bans and other sanctions on several Taiwanese political figures, though it’s unclear what effect the sanctions would have.
Holcomb emphasized the economic nature of his visit, mentioning that the state is among the top in the U.S. for direct foreign investment and was home to 10 Taiwanese companies. “We both seek to deepen and enhance our already excellent cooperation that we've established over the years,” he said.
Holcomb will also meet representatives of the semiconductor industry, and is expected to promote academic and tech cooperation between Taiwan and the state of Indiana. The delegation is meeting with National Yang-Ming University and National Cheng Kung University as part of the exchange.
He is traveling with officials from the state's economic development council, as well as the dean of engineering at Purdue University, an institution which has just established a semiconductors degree program. He will visit South Korea next.
Police file terrorism charges against Pakistan's Imran Khan
Pakistani police have filed terrorism charges against former Prime Minister Imran Khan, authorities said Monday, escalating political tensions in the country as the ousted premier holds mass rallies seeking to return to office.
The terrorism charges came over a speech Khan gave in Islamabad on Saturday in which he vowed to sue police officers and a female judge and alleged that a close aide had been tortured after his arrest.
Khan himself has not immediately addressed the police charge sheet being lodged against him. Khan's political party — Tehreek-e-Insaf, now in the opposition — published online videos showing supporters surrounding his home to potentially stop police from reaching it.
Hundreds remained there early Monday and police have yet to attempt to detain Khan, said Fawad Chaudhry, who served as information minister in Khan’s government. Tehreek-e-Insaf warned that it will hold nationwide rallies if Khan is arrested.
Khan’s lawyer Bawar Awan meanwhile filed a request to Islamabad's High Court seeking protective bail for Khan, which would protect him from being arrested.
Under Pakistan’s legal system, police file what is known as a first information report about charges against an accused person to a magistrate judge, who allows the investigation to move forward. Typically, police then arrest and question the accused.
The report against Khan includes testimony from Magistrate Judge Ali Javed, who described being at the Islamabad rally on Saturday and hearing Khan criticize the inspector-general of Pakistan's police and another judge. Khan went on to reportedly say: "You also get ready for it, we will also take action against you. All of you must be ashamed.”
Khan could face several years in prison from the new charges, which accuse him of threatening police officers and the judge under the country's sedition act, which stems from British colonial-era law. However, he's not been detained on other lesser charges levied against him in his recent campaigning against the government.
The Pakistani judiciary also has a history of politicization and taking sides in power struggles between the military, the civilian government and opposition politicians, according to the Washington-based advocacy group Freedom House. Current Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif likely will discuss the charges against Khan at a Cabinet meeting scheduled for Tuesday.
Khan came to power in 2018, promising to break the pattern of family rule in Pakistan. His opponents contend he was elected with help from the powerful military, which has ruled the country for half of its 75-year history.
Read: Pakistani lawmakers to elect new PM after Imran Khan ouster
In seeking Khan’s ouster earlier this year, the opposition had accused him of economic mismanagement as inflation soars and the Pakistani rupee plummets in value. The parliament's no-confidence vote in April that ousted Khan capped months of political turmoil and a constitutional crisis that required the Supreme Court to step in. Meanwhile, it appeared the military similarly had cooled to Khan.
Khan alleged without providing evidence that the Pakistani military took part in a U.S. plot to oust him. Washington, the Pakistani military and Sharif's government have all denied the allegation. Meanwhile, Khan has been carrying out a series of mass rallies trying to pressure the government.
In his latest speech Sunday night at a rally in the city of Rawalpindi outside of Islamabad, Khan said so-called “neutrals" were behind the recent crackdown against his party. He has in the past used the phrase “neutrals” for the military.
“A plan has been made to place our party against the wall. I assure you, that the Sri Lankan situation is going to happen here,” Khan threatened, referencing the recent economic protests that toppled that island nation's government.
"Now we are following law and constitution. But when a political party strays from that path, the situation inside Pakistan, who will stop the public? There are 220 million people.”
Khan's party has been holding mass protests, but Pakistan's government and security forces fear the former cricket star's popularity still could draw millions out to the street. That could further pressure the nuclear-armed nation as it struggles to secure a $7 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund amid an economic crisis, exacerbated by rising global food prices due in part by Russia's war on Ukraine.
On Sunday, the internet-access advocacy group NetBlocks said internet services in the country blocked access to YouTube after Khan broadcast the speech on the platform despite a ban issued by the Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority.
Police arrested Khan's political aide, Shahbaz Gill, earlier this month after he appeared on the private television channel ARY TV and urged soldiers and officers to refuse to obey “illegal orders” from the military leadership. Gill was charged with treason, which under Pakistani law carries the death penalty. ARY also remains off-air in Pakistan following that broadcast.
Khan has alleged that police abused Gill while in custody. Police say Gill suffers from asthma and has not been abused while detained. Gill is now in a hospital and a court will decide at a hearing later Monday whether he should return to jail. Khan's speech Saturday in Islamabad focused primarily on Gill's arrest.
Meanwhile, police separately arrested journalist Jameel Farooqi in Karachi over his allegations that Gill had been tortured by police. Farooqi is a vocal supporter of Khan.
Japan's PM Kishida isolates with COVID-19, cancels travels
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has been diagnosed with COVID-19 and canceled his planned travels while he isolates and recuperates.
Kishida developed a slight fever and cough late Saturday and a PCR test for the coronavirus was positive, said Noriyuki Shikata, the cabinet secretary for public affairs at the prime minister's office.
“Prime Minister Kishida is isolated inside his residence,” he told The Associated Press on Sunday.
Read: Japan minister says women ‘underestimated’
The 65-year-old prime minister was on summer vacation last week and was scheduled to return to work Monday. It’s not clear where or how he was infected.
Kishida won't go in person to a conference on African development later this month in Tunisia but will participate online. He also postponed his trip to the Middle East.
Cases of coronavirus infections have been surging recently in Japan, although most people — including Kishida — have been vaccinated. Other world leaders including U.S. President Joe Biden have been diagnosed with COVID-19 and recovered.
US, S. Korea open biggest drills in years amid North threats
The United States and South Korea began their biggest combined military training in years Monday as they heighten their defense posture against the growing North Korean nuclear threat.
The drills could draw an angry response from North Korea, which has pushed its weapons testing activity to a record pace this year while repeatedly threatening conflicts with Seoul and Washington amid a prolonged stalemate in diplomacy.
The Ulchi Freedom Shield exercises will continue through Sept. 1 in South Korea and include field exercises involving aircraft, warships, tanks and potentially tens of thousands of troops.
While Washington and Seoul describe their exercises as defensive, North Korea portrays them as invasion rehearsals that justify its nuclear weapons and missiles development.
Cho Joong-hoon, a spokesperson of South Korea's Unification Ministry, which handles inter-Korean affairs, said the South hasn't immediately detected any unusual activities or signs from the North.
The United States and South Korea had canceled some of their regular drills and reduced others to computer simulations in recent years to create space for diplomacy with North Korea and because of COVID-19 concerns.
Ulchi Freedom Shield, which started along with a four-day South Korean civil defense training program led by government employees, will reportedly include simulated joint attacks, front-line reinforcements of arms and fuel, and removals of weapons of mass destruction.
The drills came after North Korea last week dismissed South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s offer to exchange denuclearization steps and economic benefits, accusing Seoul of recycling proposals Pyongyang has long rejected.
Read: US, South Korea to begin expanded military drills next week
Kim Yo Jong, the increasingly powerful sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, described Yoon’s proposal as foolish and stressed that the North has no intentions to barter away an arsenal her brother apparently sees as his strongest guarantee of survival.
She harshly criticized Yoon for continuing military exercises with the U.S. and also for Seoul's failure to stop South Korean civilian activists from flying anti-Pyongyang propaganda leaflets and other “dirty waste” across the border by balloon.
She also ridiculed U.S.-South Korean capabilities for monitoring the North’s missile activity, insisting Seoul wrongly identified the launch location of the North’s latest missile tests last Wednesday, hours before Yoon at a news conference urged Pyongyang to return to diplomacy.
Kim Yo Jong earlier this month warned of “deadly” retaliation against South Korea over a recent North Korean COVID-19 outbreak, which Pyongyang dubiously claims was caused by leaflets and other objects floated by southern activists. There are concerns that the threat portends a provocation which might include a nuclear or missile test or even border skirmishes, and that the North may try to raise tensions sometime around the allied drills.
In an interview with Associated Press Television last month, Choe Jin, deputy director of a think tank run by North Korea’s Foreign Ministry, said the United States and South Korea would face “unprecedented” security challenges if they don’t drop their hostile military pressure campaign against North Korea, including joint military drills.
Last week’s launches of two suspected cruise missiles extended a record pace in North Korean missile testing in 2022, which has involved more than 30 ballistic launches, including the country’s first demonstrations of intercontinental ballistic missiles in nearly five years.
North Korea’s heighted testing activity underscores its dual intent to advance its arsenal and force the United States to accept the idea of the North as a nuclear power so it can negotiate economic and security concessions from a position of strength, experts say.
Kim Jong Un could up the ante soon as there are indications that the North is preparing to conduct its first nuclear test since September 2017, when it claimed to have developed a thermonuclear weapon to fit on its ICBMs.
Official: Flooding in eastern Afghanistan kills at least 9
Heavy flooding from seasonal rains in eastern Afghanistan overnight left at least nine people dead, swept away homes and destroyed livestock and agricultural land, a provincial official and a villager elder said Sunday.
Associated Press video showed villagers in the Khushi district of Logar province south of the Afghan capital of Kabul cleaning up after the flooding, their damaged homes in disarray.
Abdullah Mufaker, head of Logar province's Natural Disaster Management Ministry, said it was still unknown how many were killed and injured by the rising waters but that there were at least nine fatalities.
Read: 31 dead in India flash floods & landslides
“The exact number is not clear for the time being, and the people have gone to remove the dead bodies,” he said.
Del Agha, a village elder, said the flooding was unprecedented in the history of Khushi. “It destroyed all the people’s animals, houses and agricultural lands,” he said. "People are homeless, they have been refuged to the mountains.”
Last week, heavy rains set off flash floods that killed at least 31 people and left dozens missing in northern Afghanistan.
31 dead in India flash floods & landslides
At least 31 people have died in flash floods and landslides triggered by heavy monsoon rains in four Indian states since Friday night, officials said on Sunday.
In the hilly state of Himachal Pradesh alone, 22 people have been killed in the past 36 hours and several others reported missing after bridges and houses were swept away.
"The deaths were reported from the districts of Mandi, Kangra and Chamba. Ten people are also said to be missing," a senior disaster authority official told the media.
"Mandi is the worst-hit district, where 13 people have died so far," the official added.
Local TV channels aired footage of rescue operations being carried out in Himachal. However, at many places, these operations have been hampered by heavy downpours.
Read:India landslide death toll reaches 47
Indian opposition Congress leader Rahul Gandhi took to social media to condole the deaths and urge the Himachal government to provide relief to the affected.
"There has been heavy destruction in Himachal Pradesh due to landslides, cloudbursts and floods," Gandhi wrote on Facebook this morning.
Apart from Himachal, four deaths have been reported from the neighbouring hilly state of Uttarakhand and the eastern state of Odisha. One person died in Jharkhand.
"In Uttarakhand in particular, a series of cloudbursts across the state triggered flash floods and landslides that have claimed four lives so far," a police officer said.
In the eastern Indian states of Odisha and Jharkhand, five people have been killed in the past 24 hours. "Four of the deaths occurred in Odisha," another official said.
Landslides and flash floods due to cloudbursts and heavy rains are common in northern India in the monsoon months of July to September.
China's response to Pelosi visit a sign of future intentions
China's response to U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan was anything but subtle — dispatching warships and military aircraft to all sides of the self-governing island democracy, and firing ballistic missiles into the waters nearby.
The dust has still not settled, with Taiwan this week conducting drills of its own and Beijing announcing it has more maneuvers planned, but experts say a lot can already be gleaned from what China has done, and has not done, so far. China will also be drawing lessons on its own military capabilities from the exercises, which more closely resembled what an actual strike on the island claimed by Beijing as its own territory would look like, and from the American and Taiwanese response.
During the nearly weeklong maneuvers that followed Pelosi's early August visit, China sailed ships and flew aircraft regularly across the median line in the Taiwan Strait, claiming the de facto boundary did not exist, fired missiles over Taiwan itself, and challenged established norms by firing missiles into Japan's exclusive economic zone.
“I think we are in for a risky period of testing boundaries and finding out who can achieve escalatory dominance across the diplomatic, military and economic domains,” said David Chen, an analyst with CENTRA Technology, a U.S.-based consulting firm.
Pelosi was the highest-level member of the U.S. government to visit Taiwan in 25 years, and her visit came at a particularly sensitive time, as Chinese President Xi Jinping prepares to seek a third five-year term as leader of the ruling Communist Party later this year.
Under Xi, China has been increasingly forceful in declaring that Taiwan must be brought under its control — by force if necessary — and U.S. military officials have said that Beijing may seek a military solution within the next few years.
Tensions were already high, with China conducting regular military flights near Taiwan and the U.S. routinely sailing warships through the Taiwan Strait to emphasize they are international waters.
China accuses the U.S. of encouraging the island’s independence through the sale of weapons and engagement between U.S. politicians and the island’s government.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying called Pelosi’s visit a “serious provocation” and accused Washington of breaking the status quo and “interfering in China’s internal affairs.”
“China is not the old China of 120 years ago, and we are not Iraq, Syria or Afghanistan — we will not allow any foreign force to bully, suppress or enslave us,” she told reporters in Beijing. “Whoever wants to do so will be on a collision course with the Great Wall of steel forged by the 1.4 billion Chinese people.”
The U.S. continues to insist it has not deviated from its “one-China” policy, recognizing the government in Beijing while allowing for informal relations and defense ties with Taipei.
China held off on its maneuvers until Pelosi had left Taiwan, and turned back its forces before they approached Taiwan's coast or territorial airspace, which showed a “modicum of restraint,” Chen said. But, he noted, another congressional visit following Pelosi's triggered the announcement of more exercises.
“We are likely entering a period of regular military demonstrations in and around China’s maritime domain," he said.
“The Chinese Communist Party is also quite capable in creating cross-domain responses, as has been seen in the cyber realm. Beyond that, we could see escalatory moves in space, in the South China Sea, Africa, the Indian Ocean, or the South Pacific.”
Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said the scale and coordination of the exercises suggested China was looking past Taiwan toward establishing dominance in the western Pacific. That would include controlling the East and South China Seas via the Taiwan Strait, and having the capability to impose a blockade to prevent the U.S. and its allies from coming to the aid of Taiwan in the event of an attack.
Short of an armed conflict, a blockade of the Taiwan Strait — a significant thoroughfare for global trade — could have major implications for international supply chains at a time when the world is already facing disruptions.
In particular, Taiwan is a crucial provider of computer chips for the global economy.
Though ostensibly a reaction to Pelosi's visit, it is clear China's exercises had been long planned, said Mareike Ohlberg, a senior fellow in the Asia Program of the German Marshall Fund think tank.
“I do think they were looking for an opportunity to escalate,” she said. “This is not something you prep after the announcement (of the visit) and then pull off that quickly and that easily.”
Read:China sets sanctions on Taiwan figures to punish US, island
The U.S. held back throughout the maneuvers, keeping an aircraft carrier group and two amphibious assault ships at sail in the region, but not close to the island. Taiwan avoided any active countermeasures.
Kurt Campbell, the Biden administration's coordinator for Indo-Pacific affairs, said this week that the U.S. was taking a “calm and resolute” long-view approach that would include continued transits of the Taiwan Strait, supporting Taiwan’s self-defense capabilities, and otherwise deepening ties with the island.
To that end, the U.S. announced Thursday that it was opening talks with Taiwan on a wide-ranging trade agreement.
Campbell said Washington sees China’s actions as “part of an intensified pressure campaign against Taiwan, which has not ended.”
“We expect it to continue to unfold in the coming weeks and months,” he said.
The U.S. Department of Defense has acknowledged China’s increasingly capable military, saying it has become a true rival and has already surpassed the American military in some areas, including shipbuilding, and now has the world’s largest navy.
The reserved American response to the recent exercises seemed calculated to avoid any accidental confrontation that could have escalated the situation, but could also feed China’s confidence, Ohlberg said.
“The base of China’s thinking is that the U.S. is in decline and that China is on the rise, and I guess the response would have been seen in Beijing as confirming that thinking,” she said.
The U.S. and China came perhaps the closest to blows in 1996, when China, irked by what it saw as increasing American support for Taiwan, fired missiles into the waters some 30 kilometers (20 miles) from Taiwan’s coast ahead of Taiwan’s first popular presidential election.
The U.S. responded with its own show of force, sending two aircraft carrier groups to the region. At the time, China had no aircraft carriers and little means to threaten the American ships, and it backed down.
China subsequently embarked on a massive modernization of its military and the recent exercises demonstrate a “quantum leap” of improvement from 1996, showing a joint command and control coordination not seen before, Chen said.
Before being confident enough to launch an actual invasion of Taiwan, however, the Chinese military still needs to do more to assure the country’s political leadership it would be successful, he said.
“These latest exercises are probably part of proving that capability, but more needs to be hammered out before they could be confident in conducting a full-scale Taiwan amphibious invasion,” he said. “They’ve only demonstrated the maritime blockade and air control parts of that campaign, without opposition.”
Following the visit, China released an updated “white paper” on Taiwan outlining how it envisioned an eventual annexation of the island would look.
It said it would follow the “one country, two systems” format applied in Hong Kong, which critics say has been undermined by a sweeping national security law that asserts Beijing’s control over speech and political participation. The concept has been thoroughly rejected in Taiwanese public opinion polls in which respondents have overwhelmingly favored their current de facto independence.
Tellingly, the new white paper discarded a pledge in its previous iteration not to send troops or government officials to an annexed Taiwan.
China has refused all contact with Taiwan’s government since shortly after the 2016 election of President Tsai Ing-wen of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party. Tsai was overwhelmingly reelected in 2020.
China's bellicose response to Pelosi's visit may have the unintended effect of strengthening the DPP in midterm elections later this year, said Huang Kwei-bo, vice dean of the College of International Affairs at Taiwan’s National Chengchi University.
Ideally, it would be in Taiwan's best interest if both sides backed off and found “reasoned ways” to settle differences, he said.
“There’s an old saying that when two big elephants fight, the ant and the grass suffer,” he said.