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Why another high inflation report may not cause Fed to hike
The government inflation report being released Tuesday is expected to show that price acceleration in the United States remained chronically high in February, putting the Federal Reserve in an unusually tough position.
The Fed had been considered sure to raise its benchmark interest rate by at least a quarter-point when it meets next week. Many analysts even expected an aggressive half-point hike if Tuesday’s report for February pointed again to elevated inflation. But that was before last weekend’s two major bank failures and a series of emergency measures that the Fed unveiled to try to bolster confidence in the financial system.
With bank share prices cratering Monday and fears of further financial instability roiling markets, most economists now expect the Fed to pause its rate hikes next week to avoid causing any further instability at a delicate moment for the banking system.
At the same time, inflation continues to run far above what the Fed wants. Economists have estimated that Tuesday’s report will show that consumer prices rose 0.4% from January to February, according to a survey of economists by the data provider FactSet. That would be slightly less than the increase from December to January but still too fast to be consistent with the Fed’s 2% annual inflation target.Economists have predicted that compared with a year ago, overall inflation rose 6% in February, down from a 6.4% year-over-year jump in January. They have also estimated that so-called core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy costs, rose 5.5% from a year earlier. That would be only slightly below January’s annual pace of 5.6%.
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Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, said Goldman now thinks the Fed’s policymakers will pause their rate increases next week. Goldman had previously predicted a quarter-point hike. In a note to clients, Hatzius noted that the Fed, for now, appears even more focused on calming the banking sector and the financial markets than on fighting inflation.
“We would be surprised if, just one week after going to great lengths to support financial stability, policymakers risked undermining their efforts by raising interest rates again,” Hatzius wrote in a separate note Monday.
If the Fed does pause its rate hikes this month, Hatzius predicted, it will likely resume them when it next meets in May. Ultimately, he still expects the Fed to raise its key rate, which affects many consumer and business loans, to about 5.4% this year, up from the current 4.6%.
The Fed may get some unintentional help in its inflation fight from the aftereffects of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and New York-based Signature Bank. In response, many small and medium-size banks may pull back on lending to shore up their finances. A lower pace of lending could help cool the economy and slow inflation.
The possibility of a Fed pause underscores the sharp shift in the nation’s financial system and economy in barely one week. Last Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell had told the Senate Banking Committee that if hiring and inflation continued to run hot, the Fed would likely raise rates at this month’s meeting by a sizeable half-point. That would have marked a re-acceleration in the Fed’s efforts to tighten credit. The central bank had raised its benchmark rate by a quarter-point in February, a half-point in December and by three-quarters of point four times before that.
The next day, testifying to a House committee, Powell cautioned that no final decision had been made about what the Fed would do at the March meeting. Still, on Friday, the government reported that employers added a robust 311,000 jobs last month. It was a potential sign of continued high inflation, and it led to predictions of a half-point hike at the Fed’s meeting next week.
Later that day, though, Silicon Valley Bank failed, thrusting an entirely new set of concerns onto the Fed.
Global Covid-19 cases now over 681 million
The overall number of Covid-19 cases around the world has now surpassed 681 million.
According to the latest global data, the total Covid-19 case count amounted to 681,658,125 while the death toll reached 6,812,441 this morning.
The US has reported 105,649,010 Covid-19 cases so far, while 1,148,993 people have died from the virus in the country — both highest counts globally.
India logged 524 new Covid-19 cases, while the active cases rose to 3,618, according to the Union Health Ministry data updated on Sunday.
The death toll has increased to 5,30,781 with one death recorded in Kerala, the data updated at 8 am stated.
Read: China once again urges U.S. to immediately stop political manipulation on COVID origins-tracing: FM spokesperson
The Covid-19 case tally was recorded at 4.46 crore (4,46,90,492).
Meanwhile, France has registered 39,657,165 Covid-19 cases so far, occupying the third position in the world number-wise, and 165,213 people have died in the country, as per Worldometer.
Covid-19 situation in Bangladesh
Bangladesh reported seven more Covid-19 cases in 24 hours till Monday morning.
With the new cases, the country's total caseload rose to 2,037,929, according to the Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS).
However, the official death toll from Covid-19 remained unchanged at 29,445 as no new fatalities were reported.
Study concludes whether money can buy happiness
A joint study by two researchers from Princeton University and University of Pennsylvania seems to have answered one of the most asked timeless questions: can money buy happiness?
The research conducted by Daniel Kahneman and Matthew Killingsworth, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, reached a conclusion: happiness tends to rise with increase in income and earnings.
The latest study on the correlation between money and happiness refutes the previously reached conclusion that happiness levels off for people when their income reaches $75,000, The Washington Post reports.
In 2010, Nobel Prize-winning economist and psychologist Daniel Kahneman first proposed this threshold in a study that found that "emotional well-being [also] improves with log income, but there is no further growth beyond a yearly income of $75,000."
Read More: Happiness Hormone: Ways to Boost Dopamine
However, a research conducted by Matthew Killingsworth, a happiness researcher and senior fellow at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, found that happiness does not level out after hitting $75,000, rather continues to rise with “income well beyond $200,000,” the report adds.
In their latest study, both researchers came together and pitted their theories against each other with the help of an arbiter.
The study was adjusted for inflation, they told The Washington Post.
The two researchers surveyed 33,391 people in the US — aged between 18 and 65 — with a household income of at least $100,000 a year.
Read More: From coffee to yoga to happiness: Offbeat ministries from around the world!
Killingsworth developed a smartphone app called ‘Track Your Happiness’ to measure their happiness. The app required participants to report their feelings at random intervals throughout the day.
“The data came from repeatedly pinging people at randomly-timed moments during daily life, and asking about their happiness at that moment in real-time,” he told The Washington Post via email.
They were specifically asked questions like “How do you feel right now?” on a scale ranging from “very bad” to “very good.”
The study found that happiness continues to rise with “income even in the high range of incomes” for the majority of people, reaching a conclusion that for many, earning more can mean increased happiness.
Read More: Eid for Introverts: Finding Happiness and Fulfillment on Your Own
However, for about 20% of the respondents, the case is a bit different. For them, the unhappiness diminishes with rising income up to a certain threshold, the report says citing the research.
These people usually experience “negative miseries” that can’t be alleviated by making more money, according to the study.
“In the simplest terms, the findings suggest that for most people larger incomes are associated with greater happiness,” Killingsworth said about the final conclusion of the study.
However, he cautioned that money isn’t everything — “just one of the many determinants of happiness.”
Read More: Spending Money for Happiness: 10 Effective Ways
“For instance, if you’re rich and miserable, more money won’t help,” The Washington Post quoted him as saying.
From wine country to London, bank's failure shakes worldwide
It was called Silicon Valley Bank, but its collapse is causing shockwaves around the world.
From winemakers in California to startups across the Atlantic Ocean, companies are scrambling to figure out how to manage their finances after their bank suddenly shut down Friday. The meltdown means distress not only for businesses but also for all their workers whose paychecks may get tied up in the chaos.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom said Saturday that he's talking with the White House to help "stabilize the situation as quickly as possible, to protect jobs, people's livelihoods, and the entire innovation ecosystem that has served as a tent pole for our economy.”
U.S. customers with less than $250,000 in the bank can count on insurance provided by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Regulators are trying to find a buyer for the bank in hopes customers with more than that can be made whole.
Also Read: A major bank failed. Here’s why it’s not 2008 again
That includes customers like Circle, a big player in the cryptocurrency industry. It said it has about $3.3 billion of the roughly $40 billion in reserves for its USDC coin at SVB. That caused USD Coin’s value, which tries to stay firmly at $1, to briefly plunge below 87 cents Saturday. It later rose back above 97 cents, according to CoinDesk.
Across the Atlantic, startup companies woke up Saturday to find SVB’s U.K. business will stop making payments or accepting deposits. The Bank of England said late Friday that it will put Silicon Valley Bank UK in its insolvency procedure, which will pay out eligible depositors up to 170,000 British pounds ($204,544) for joint accounts “as quickly as possible.”
“We know that there are a large number of startups and investors in the ecosystem who have significant exposure to SVB UK and will be very concerned,” Dom Hallas, executive director of Coadec, which represents British startups, said on Twitter. He cited “concern and panic.”
The Bank of England said SVB UK’s assets would be sold to pay creditors.
It’s not just startups feeling the pain. The bank’s collapse is having an effect on another important California industry: fine wines. It’s been an influential lender to vineyards since the 1990s.
“This is a huge disappointment,” said winemaker Jasmine Hirsch, the general manager of Hirsch Vineyards in California’s Sonoma County.
Hirsch said she expects her business will be fine. But she's worried about the broader effects for smaller vintners looking for lines of credit to plant new vines.
“They really understand the wine business,” Hirsch said. “The disappearance of this bank, as one of the most important lenders, is absolutely going to have an effect on the wine industry, especially in an environment where interest rates have gone up.”
In Seattle, Shelf Engine CEO Stefan Kalb found himself immersed in emergency meetings devoted to figuring how to meet payroll instead of focusing on his startup company's business of helping grocers manage their food orders.
“It’s been a brutal day. We literally have every single penny in Silicon Valley Bank,” Kalb said Friday, pegging the deposit amount that’s now tied up at millions of dollars.
He is filing a claim for the $250,000 limit, but that won’t be enough to keep paying Shelf Engine’s 40 employees for long. That could force him into a decision about whether to begin furloughing employees until the mess is cleaned up.
“I’m just hoping the bank gets sold during the weekend,” Kalb said.
Tara Fung, co-founder and CEO of tech startup Co:Create that helps launch digital loyalty and rewards programs, said her firm uses multiple banks besides Silicon Valley Bank so was able switch over its payroll and vendor payments to another bank Friday.
Fung said her firm chose the bank as a partner because it is the “gold standard for tech firms and banking partnerships,” and she was upset that some people seemed to be gloating about its failure and unfairly tying it to doubts about cryptocurrency ventures.
San Francisco-based employee performance management company Confirm.com was among the Silicon Valley Bank depositors that rushed to pull their money out before regulators seized the bank.
Co-founder David Murray credits an email from one of Confirm’s venture capital investors, which urged the company to withdraw its funds “immediately,” citing signs of a run on the bank. Such actions accelerated the flight of cash, which led to the bank's collapse.
“I think a lot of founders were sharing the logic that, you know, there’s no downside to pulling up the money to be safe,” Murray said. “And so we all did that, hence the bank run.”
The U.S. government needs to act more quickly to stanch further damage, said Martín Varsavsky, an Argentinian entrepreneur who has investments across the tech industry and Silicon Valley.
One of his companies, Overture Life, which employs about 50 people, had some $1.5 million in deposits in the financially embattled bank but can rely on other holdings elsewhere to meet payroll.
But other companies have high percentages of their cash in Silicon Valley Bank, and they need access to more than the amount protected by the FDIC.
“If the government allows people to take at least half of the money they have in Silicon Valley Bank next week, I think everything will be fine," Varsavsky said Saturday. “But if they stick to the $250,000, it will be an absolute disaster in which so many companies won’t be able to meet payroll.”
Andrew Alexander, a calculus teacher at a private San Francisco high school that uses Silicon Valley Bank, wasn’t overly worried. His next paycheck isn't scheduled for another two weeks, and he's confident many of the issues can be resolved by then.
But he worries for friends whose livelihoods are more deeply intertwined with the tech industry and Silicon Valley.
“I have a lot of friends in the startup world who are just like terrified,” Alexander said, “and I really feel for them. It’s pretty scary for them.”
A major bank failed. Here’s why it’s not 2008 again
The financial institution best known for its relationships with high-flying world technology startups and venture capital, Silicon Valley Bank, experienced one of the oldest problems in banking — a bank run — which led to its failure on Friday.
Its downfall is the largest failure of a financial institution since Washington Mutual collapsed at the height of the financial crisis more than a decade ago. And it had immediate effects. Some startups that had ties to the bank scrambled to pay their workers, and feared they might have to pause projects or lay off or furlough employees until they could access their funds.
How did this happen? Here's what to know about why the bank failed, who was affected most, and what to know about how it may, and may not affect, the wider banking system in the U.S.
WHY DID SILICON VALLEY BANK FAIL?
Silicon Valley Bank was hit hard by the downturn in technology stocks over the past year as well as the Federal Reserve's aggressive plan to increase interest rates to combat inflation.
The bank bought billions of dollars worth of bonds over the past couple of years, using customers' deposits as a typical bank would normally operate. These investments are typically safe, but the value of those investments fell because they paid lower interest rates than what a comparable bond would pay if issued in today's higher interest rate environment.
Typically that's not an issue, because banks hold onto those for a long time — unless they have to sell them in an emergency.
But Silicon Valley's customers were largely startups and other tech-centric companies that started becoming more needy for cash over the past year. Venture capital funding was drying up, companies were not able to get additional rounds of funding for unprofitable businesses, and therefore had to tap their existing funds — often deposited with Silicon Valley Bank, which sat in the center of the tech startup universe.
So Silicon Valley customers started withdrawing their deposits. Initially that wasn't a huge issue, but the withdrawals started requiring the bank to start selling its own assets to meet customer withdrawal requests. Because Silicon Valley customers were largely businesses and the wealthy, they likely were more fearful of a bank failure since their deposits were over $250,000, which is the government-imposed limit on deposit insurance.
That required selling typically safe bonds at a loss, and those losses added up to the point that Silicon Valley Bank became effectively insolvent. The bank tried to raise additional capital through outside investors, but was unable to find them.
The fancy tech-focused bank was brought down by the oldest issue in banking: a good ol' run on the bank. Bank regulators had no other choice but to seize Silicon Valley Bank's assets to protect the assets and deposits still remaining at the bank.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
There are two large problems remaining with Silicon Valley Bank, but both could lead to further issues if not resolved quickly.
The most immediate problem is Silicon Valley Bank's large deposits. The Federal government insures deposits to $250,000, but anything above that level is considered uninsured. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation said insured deposits would be available on Monday morning. However the vast majority of Silicon Valley Bank's deposits were uninsured, a unique characteristic of the bank due to its customers being largely startups and wealthy tech workers.
At the moment, all of that money can't be accessed and likely will have to be released in an orderly process. But many businesses cannot wait weeks to get access to funds to meet payroll and office expenses. It could lead to furloughs or layoffs.
Two, there's no buyer of Silicon Valley Bank. Typically bank regulators look for a stronger bank to take on the assets of a failing bank, but in this case, another bank hasn't stepped forward. A bank buying Silicon Valley Bank could go a long way to resolving some of the problems tied with the money that startups can't get to right now.
IS THIS A SIGN THAT WE COULD REPEAT WHAT HAPPENED IN 2008?
At the moment, no, and experts don't expect there to be any issues spreading to the broader banking sector.
Silicon Valley Bank was large but had a unique existence by servicing nearly exclusively the technology world and VC-backed companies. It did a lot of work with the particular part of the economy that was hit hard in the past year.
Other banks are far more diversified across multiple industries, customer bases and geographies. The most recent round of “stress tests” by the Federal Reserve of the largest banks and financial institutions showed that all of them would survive a deep recession and a significant rise in unemployment.
However there might be economic ripple effects in the Bay Area and in the technology start up world if the remaining money can't be released quickly.
UN observes 1st International Day against Islamophobia
The United Nations on Friday commemorated the first International Day to Combat Islamophobia with a special event in the General Assembly Hall, where speakers upheld the need for concrete action in the face of rising hatred, discrimination and violence against Muslims.
The observation followed the unanimous adoption of an Assembly resolution last year that proclaimed March 15 as the international day, calling for global dialogue that promotes tolerance, peace and respect for human rights and religious diversity.
As the UN secretary-general said the nearly two billion Muslims worldwide – who come from all corners of the planet – "reflect humanity in all its magnificent diversity. Yet, they often face bigotry and prejudice simply because of their faith."
Also, Muslim women can also suffer "triple discrimination" because of their gender, ethnicity, and faith.
The high-level event was co-convened by Pakistan, whose Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari underlined that Islam is a religion of peace, tolerance and pluralism.
Although Islamophobia is not new, he said it is "a sad reality of our times" that is only increasing and spreading.
"Since the tragedy of 9/11, animosity and institutional suspicion of Muslims and Islam across the world have only escalated to epidemic proportions. A narrative has been developed and peddled which associates Muslim communities and their religion with violence and danger," said Zardari, also chair of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation Council of Foreign Ministers.
"This Islamophobic narrative is not just confined to extremist, marginal propaganda, but regrettably has found acceptance by sections of mainstream media, academia, policymakers and state machinery."
UN General Assembly President Csaba Kőrösi said Islamophobia is rooted in xenophobia, or the fear of strangers, which is reflected in discriminatory practices, travel bans, hate speech, bullying and targeting of other people.
He urged countries to uphold freedom of religion or belief, which is guaranteed under the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights.
"All of us carry a responsibility to challenge Islamophobia or any similar phenomenon, to call out injustice and condemn discrimination based on religion or belief – or the lack of them," he added.
Read more: Top UN woman urges Muslims: Move Taliban into 21st century
Kőrösi said education is key to learning why these phobias exist, and it can be "transformative" in changing how people understand each another.
The growing hate that Muslims face is not an isolated development, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said.
"It is an inexorable part of the resurgence of ethno-nationalism, neo-Nazi white supremacist ideologies, and violence targeting vulnerable populations, including Muslims, Jews, some minority Christian communities and others," he added.
"Discrimination diminishes us all. And it is incumbent on all of us to stand up against it. We must never be bystanders to bigotry.”"
Stressing that"we must strengthen our defences," Guterres highlighted UN measures such as a Plan of Action to Safeguard Religious Sites. He also called for ramping up political, cultural, and economic investments in social cohesion.
Read more: No militant act undercover of Islam: PM
"And we must confront bigotry wherever and whenever it rears its ugly head. This includes working to tackle the hate that spreads like wildfire across the internet." he added.
Lineker off flagship BBC soccer show after Twitter posts
Former England captain Gary Lineker was temporarily removed on Friday from his role as presenter of the BBC's flagship soccer highlights show in the wake of his criticism of the British government’s new asylum policy.
The long-running “Match of the Day” program, which has been a national institution in Britain since the 1960s, will be aired on Saturday “without studio presentation or punditry,” the BBC said in an extraordinary development after a slew of Lineker's colleagues announced they wouldn't appear on the show without him.
In a post on Tuesday on his Twitter account that has 8.7 million followers, Lineker — one of England's greatest soccer players and now among the U.K.’s most influential media figures — compared lawmakers’ language about migrants to that used in Nazi Germany.
The BBC considers Lineker posting such views on social media as a breach of its guidelines. The network said it held discussions with Lineker over his involvement in “Match of the Day,” which is broadcast on Saturday nights and shows highlights of English Premier League games that day.
“The BBC has decided that he will step back from presenting ‘Match of the Day,’" the broadcaster said, “until we’ve got an agreed and clear position on his use of social media.
"We have never said that Gary should be an opinion-free zone, or that he can’t have a view on issues that matter to him, but we have said that he should keep well away from taking sides on party political issues or political controversies.”
Also Read: BBC crisis escalates as players, stars rally behind Lineker
Lineker has yet to make an official comment, though one of his former colleagues on the BBC — Dan Walker — said he had been in contact with Lineker and asked him “whether he is stepping back or whether the BBC have told him to step back.”
Walker said Lineker replied to him that the BBC “told me I have to step back.”
“So Gary Lineker wants to continue to present ‘Match Of The Day’ and is not apologizing for what he has said,” Walker said on Channel 5, where he works, “but he has said it’s a BBC decision to force him to not present the program at the moment.”
In solidarity with Lineker, Alan Shearer and Ian Wright — former England players who work as pundits on “Match of the Day” — said on Twitter they would not be appearing on the program this weekend.
After more of his BBC co-workers, like former soccer players Alex Scott, Jermaine Jenas and Micah Richards, said they would not want to work on "Match of the Day" because of the treatment of Lineker, the BBC took the decision to change the format of the show.
“Some of our pundits have said that they don’t wish to appear on the program while we seek to resolve the situation with Gary," the BBC said.
“We understand their position and we have decided that the program will focus on match action without studio presentation or punditry.”
Conservative lawmakers in Britain have called on the BBC to discipline Lineker, the network’s highest-paid star on 1.35 million pounds ($1.6 million) last year, for saying the government’s plan to detain and deport migrants arriving by boat is “an immeasurably cruel policy directed at the most vulnerable people in language that is not dissimilar to that used by Germany in the 30s.”
The government has called Lineker’s Nazi comparison inappropriate and unacceptable, and some lawmakers said he should be fired.
The 62-year-old Lineker was a household name in Britain well before he became a smooth, knowledgeable presenter of sports shows on the BBC and other broadcasters. He was the leading scorer at the 1986 World Cup and finished his international career with 48 goals in 80 matches for England.
His club career included spells with Barcelona, Tottenham, Everton and Leicester.
The BBC, which is funded by a license fee paid by all households with a television, has a duty to be impartial and news staff are barred from expressing political opinions. As a freelancer who doesn’t work in news or current affairs, Lineker isn’t bound by the same rules and he often delves into politics and human rights issues with his tweets.
The BBC's neutrality has come under recent scrutiny over revelations that its chairman, Richard Sharp — a Conservative Party donor — helped arrange a loan for then Prime Minister Boris Johnson in 2021, weeks before he was appointed to the BBC post on the government’s recommendation.
China names Li Qiang premier nominally in charge of economy
China on Saturday named Li Qiang, a close confidant of top leader Xi Jinping, as the country’s next premier nominally in charge of the world’s second-largest economy now facing some of its worst prospects in years.
Li was nominated by Xi and appointed to the position at Saturday morning’s session of the National People’s Congress, China’s ceremonial parliament. That came a day after Xi, 69, secured a norms-breaking third five-year term as state leader, setting him up to possibly rule for life.
Li is best known for having enforced a brutal “zero-COVID” lockdown on Shanghai last spring as party boss of the Chinese financial hub, proving his loyalty to Xi in the face of complaints from residents over their lack of access to food, medical care and basic services.
Li, 63, came to know Xi during the future president’s term as head of Li’s native Zhejiang, a relatively wealthy southeastern province now known as a technology and manufacturing powerhouse.
Prior to the pandemic, Li built up a reputation in Shanghai and Zhejiang before that as friendly to private industry, even as Xi enforced tighter political controls and anti-COVID curbs, as well as more control over e-commerce and other tech companies.
Also read: Xi awarded 3rd term as China's president, extending rule
As premier, Li will be charged with reviving a sluggish economy still emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic and confronted with weak global demand for exports, lingering U.S. tariff hikes, a shrinking workforce and an aging population.
He takes on the job as authority of the premier and the State Council, China’s Cabinet, has been steadily eroding as Xi shifts more powers to bodies directly under the ruling Communist Party.
At the opening of the annual congress session on Sunday, outgoing Premier Li Keqiang announced plans for a consumer-led revival of the struggling economy, setting this year’s growth target at “around 5%.” Last year’s growth fell to 3%, the second-weakest level since at least the 1970s.
As with Xi’s appointment on Friday, there was no indication that members of the NPC had any option other than to endorse Li and other officials picked by the Communist Party to fill other posts.
Unlike Xi, who received the body’s full endorsement, Li’s tally included three opposed and eight abstentions.
The nearly 3,000 delegates deposited ballots into boxes placed around the vast auditorium in the Great Hall of the People, in a process that also produced new heads of the Supreme People’s Court and the state prosecutor’s office, and two vice chairmen of the Central Military Commission that commands the party’s military wing, the 2 million-member People’s Liberation Army.
Xi was renamed head of the commission on Friday, an appointment that has been automatic for the party leader for three decades. The premier has no direct authority over the armed forces, who take their orders explicitly from the party, and plays only a marginal role in foreign relations and domestic security.
Xi’s new term and the appointment of loyalists to top posts underscore his near-total monopoly on Chinese political power, eliminating any potential opposition to his hyper-nationalistic agenda of building China into the top political, military and economic rival to the U.S. and the chief authoritarian challenge to the Washington-led democratic world order.
German gunman kills 6 at Hamburg Jehovah's Witness hall
A gunman stormed a service at his former Jehovah’s Witness hall in Germany, killing six people before taking his own life after police arrived, authorities in the port city of Hamburg said Friday.
Police gave no motive for Thursday night’s attack. But they acknowledged recently receiving an anonymous tip that claimed the man identified as the shooter showed anger toward Jehovah's Witnesses and might be psychologically unfit to own a gun.
Eight people were wounded, including a woman who was 28 weeks pregnant and lost the baby. Chancellor Olaf Scholz said the death toll could rise.
Officers apparently arrived at the hall while the attack was ongoing and heard one more shot, according to witnesses and authorities. They did not fire their weapons, but officials said their intervention likely prevented further loss of life at the boxy building next to an auto repair shop a few kilometers (miles) from downtown.
Also read: Gunmen in military uniforms shoot dead governor, 5 civilians in central Philippines
Scholz, a former Hamburg mayor, said the city was “speechless in view of this violence” and “mourning those whose lives were taken so brutally.”
All of the victims were German citizens apart from two wounded women, one with Ugandan citizenship and one with Ukrainian.
Officials said the suspected assailant was a 35-year-old German man identified only as Philipp F., in line with the country's privacy rules. Police said he had left the congregation “voluntarily, but apparently not on good terms,” about a year and a half ago.
A website registered in the name of someone who fits the police description says that he grew up in the Bavarian town of Kempten in “a strict religious evangelical household.”
The website, which is filled with business jargon, also links to a self-published book about “God, Jesus Christ and Satan.”
Philipp F. legally owned a semi-automatic Heckler & Koch Pistole P30 handgun, according to police. He fired more than 100 shots during the attack, and the head of the Hamburg prosecutors office, Ralf Peter Anders, said hundreds more rounds were found in a search of the man’s apartment.
Germany’s gun laws are more restrictive than those in the United States but permissive compared with some European neighbors, and shootings are not unheard of.
Last year, an 18-year-old man opened fire in a packed lecture at Heidelberg University, killing one person and wounding three others before killing himself. In 2020, the nation saw two high-profile shootings, one that killed six people and another that took nine lives.
In the most recent shooting involving a site of worship, a far-right extremist attempted to force his way into a synagogue in Halle on the Jewish holy day of Yom Kippur in 2019. After failing to gain entry, he shot two people to death nearby.
The German government announced plans last year to crack down on gun ownership by suspected extremists and to tighten background checks. Currently, anyone who wants to acquire a firearm must show that they are fit to do so, including by proving that they require a gun. Reasons can include being part of a sports shooting club or being a hunter.
Hamburg Police Chief Ralf Martin Meyer said the man was visited by officers after they received an anonymous tip in January, claiming that he had “particular anger toward religious believers, in particular toward Jehovah’s Witnesses and his former employer.”
Officers said the man was cooperative and found no grounds to take away his weapon, according to Meyer.
“The bottom line is that an anonymous tip in which someone says they’re worried a person might have a psychological illness isn’t in itself a basis for (such) measures,” he said.
Germany’s top security official laid a wreath of flowers outside the hall to commemorate the victims and thanked police before taking questions from reporters.
Asked whether the attack could have been prevented, Interior Minister Nancy Faser said it was necessary to wait for the investigation to conclude, but she acknowledged that changes were needed in the way background checks are conducted and information is exchanged between authorities.
She said a bill now making its way through the legislative process would require gun owners to undergo psychological tests.
On Friday morning, forensic investigators in protective white suits could be seen outside the hall. As a light snow fell, officers placed yellow cones on the ground and windowsills to mark evidence.
A special operations unit that happened to be near the hall arrived just minutes after receiving the first emergency call at 9:04 p.m., Hamburg’s top security official said. The officers were able to separate the gunman from the congregation.
“We can assume that they saved many people’s lives this way,” Hamburg state Interior Minister Andy Grote told reporters.
Upon arrival, officers found people with apparent gunshot wounds on the ground floor and then heard a shot from an upper floor, where they found a fatally wounded person believed to be the shooter, according to police spokesman Holger Vehren.
Gregor Miebach, who lives within sight of the building, heard shots and filmed a figure entering the building through a window. In his footage, shots can then be heard from inside. The figure later apparently emerges from the hall, is seen in the courtyard and then fires more shots through a first floor window before the lights in the room go out.
Miebach told German television news agency NonstopNews that he heard at least 25 shots. After police arrived, one last shot followed, he said.
His mother, Dorte Miebach, said she was shocked by the shooting. “It's really 50 meters (yards) from our house and many people died,” she said. “This is still incomprehensible.”
Jehovah’s Witnesses are part of an international church founded in the United States in the 19th century and headquartered in Warwick, New York. The church claims a worldwide membership of about 8.7 million, with about 170,000 in Germany.
Members are known for their evangelistic efforts that include knocking on doors and distributing literature in public squares. The denomination’s practices include a refusal to bear arms, receive blood transfusions, salute a national flag or participate in secular government.
David Semonian, a U.S.-based spokesman for Jehovah’s Witnesses, said in an emailed statement Friday that members “worldwide grieve for the victims of this traumatic event.”
Anti-Russia guerrillas in Belarus take on 'two-headed enemy'
After Russia invaded Ukraine, guerrillas from Belarus began carrying out acts of sabotage on their country's railways, including blowing up track equipment to paralyze the rails that Russian forces used to get troops and weapons into Ukraine.
In the most recent sabotage to make international headlines, they attacked a Russian warplane parked just outside the Belarusian capital.
“Belarusians will not allow the Russians to freely use our territory for the war with Ukraine, and we want to force them to leave,” Anton, a retired Belarusian serviceman who joined a group of saboteurs, told The Associated Press in a phone interview.
“The Russians must understand on whose side the Belarusians are actually fighting," he said, speaking on the condition that his last name be withheld for security reasons.
More than a year after Russia used the territory of its neighbor and ally to invade Ukraine, Belarus continues to host Russian troops, as well as warplanes, missiles and other weapons. The Belarusian opposition condemns the cooperation, and a guerrilla movement sprang up to disrupt the Kremlin's operations, both on the ground and online. Meanwhile, Belarus' authoritarian government is trying to crack down on saboteurs with threats of the death penalty and long prison terms.
Activists say the rail attacks have forced the Russian military to abandon the use of trains to send troops and materiel to Ukraine.
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The retired serviceman is a member of the Association of Security Forces of Belarus, or BYPOL, a guerrilla group founded amid mass political protests in Belarus in 2020. Its core is composed of former military members.
During the first year of the war, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko realized that getting involved in the conflict “will cost him a lot and will ignite dangerous processes inside Belarus,” said Anton Matolka, coordinator of the Belarusian military monitoring group Belaruski Hajun.
Last month, BYPOL claimed responsibility for a drone attack on a Russian warplane stationed near the Belarusian capital. The group said it used two armed drones to damage the Beriev A-50 parked at the Machulishchy Air Base near Minsk. Belarusian authorities have said they requested the early warning aircraft to monitor their border.
Lukashenko acknowledged the attack a week later, saying that the damage to the plane was insignificant, but admitting it had to be sent to Russia for repairs.
The iron-fisted leader also said the perpetrator of the attack was arrested along with more than 20 accomplices and that he has ties to Ukrainian security services.
Both BYPOL and Ukrainian authorities rejected allegations that Kyiv was involved. BYPOL leader Aliaksandr Azarau said the people who carried out the assault were able to leave Belarus safely.
“We are not familiar with the person Lukashenko talked about,” he said.
The attack on the plane, which Azarau said was used to help Russia locate Ukrainian air defense systems, was “an attempt to blind Russian military aviation in Belarus."
He said the group is preparing other operations to free Belarus “from the Russian occupation” and to free Belarus from Lukashenko’s regime.
"We have a two-headed enemy these days,” said Azarau, who remains outside Belarus.
Former military officers in the BYPOL group work closely with the team of Belarus’ exiled opposition leader, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who ran against Lukashenko in the 2020 presidential election that was widely seen as rigged.
The disputed vote results handed him his sixth term in office and triggered the largest protests in the country’s history. In response, Lukashenko unleashed a brutal crackdown on demonstrators, accusing the opposition of plotting to overthrow the government. Tsikhanouskaya fled to Lithuania under pressure.
With the protests still simmering a year after the election, BYPOL created an underground network of anti-government activists dubbed Peramoha, or Victory. According to Azarau, the network has some 200,000 participants, two-thirds of them in Belarus.
“Lukashenko has something to be afraid of,” Azarau said.
Belarusian guerrillas say they have already carried out 17 major acts of sabotage on railways. The first took place just two days after Russian troops rolled into Ukraine.
A month later, then-Ukrainian railways head Oleksandr Kamyshin said there “was no longer any railway traffic between Ukraine and Belarus,” and thanked Belarusian guerrillas for it.
Another group of guerrillas operates in cyberspace. Their coordinator, Yuliana Shametavets, said some 70 Belarusian IT specialists are hacking into Russian government databases and attacking websites of Russian and Belarusian state institutions.
“The future of Belarus depends directly on the military success of Ukraine,” Shametavets said. “We’re trying to contribute to Ukraine’s victory as best we can.”
Last month, the cyberguerrillas reported hacking a subsidiary of Russia’s state media watchdog, Roskomnadzor. They said they were able to penetrate the subsidiary’s inner network, download more than two terabytes of documents and emails, and share data showing how Russian authorities censor information about the war in Ukraine.
They also hacked into Belarus’ state database containing information about border crossings and are now preparing a report on Ukrainian citizens who were recruited by Russia and went to meet with their handlers in Belarus.
In addition, the cyberguerrillas help vet Belarusians who volunteer to join the Kastus Kalinouski regiment that fights alongside Kyiv’s forces. Shametovets said they were able to identify four security operatives among the applicants.
Belarusian authorities have unleashed a crackdown on guerrillas.
Last May, Lukashenko signed off on introducing the death penalty for attempted terrorist acts. Last month, the Belarusian parliament also adopted the death penalty as punishment for high treason. Lukashenko signed the measure Thursday.
“Belarusian authorities are seriously scared by the scale of the guerrilla movement inside the country and don’t know what to do with it, so they chose harsh repressions, intimidation and fear as the main tool,” said Pavel Sapelka of the Viasna human rights group.
Dozens have been arrested, while many others have fled the country.
Siarhei Vaitsekhovich runs a Telegram blog where he regularly posts about Russian drills in Belarus and the deployment of Russian military equipment and troops to the country. He had to leave Belarus after authorities began investigating him on charges of treason and forming an extremist group.
Vaitsekhovich said his 15-year-old brother was recently detained in an effort to pressure him to take the blog down and cooperate with the security services.
The Russian Federal Security Service "is very unhappy with the fact that information about movements of Russian military equipment spills out into public domain,” Vaitsekhovich said.
According to Viasna, over the past 12 months at least 1,575 Belarusians have been detained for their anti-war stance, and 56 have been convicted on various charges and sentenced to prison terms ranging from a year to 23 years.
Anton says he understands the risks. On one of the railway attacks he worked with three associates who were each sentenced in November to more than 20 years in prison.
“It is hard to say who is in a more difficult position — a Ukrainian in a trench or a Belarusian on a stakeout,” he said.