Climate Change
Australia commits to reducing greenhouse emissions by 43%
Australia’s new government on Thursday formally committed to a more ambitious greenhouse gas reduction target of 43% by the end of the decade in fulfillment of a key election pledge.
The previous conservative government was dumped by voters at the May 21 election after it stuck to a seven-year-old pledge to reduce Australia’s emissions by only 26% to 28% below 2005 levels by 2030.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said he had written to U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change executive secretary Patricia Espinosa Cantellano to inform her of Australia’s new 2030 target.
Albanese said legislation to enshrine the new target in law would be introduced to the new Parliament which will sit for the first time on July 26. However the target did not depend on Parliament’s approval.
Investment in Australia’s energy sector had been held up during the previous government’s nine years in power due to the administration’s failure to agree on a climate policy, Albanese said.
“What businesses have been crying out for is investment certainty,” Albanese said. “The certainty that they need to invest over a longer time frame than the political cycle of three years.”
Australia is one of the world’s largest exporters of coal and liquified natural gas which makes reducing dependence on fossil fuels a politically vexed issue. The previous government was widely considered a laggard among wealthy countries in combating climate change.
Read: Climate change wipes out $525 bn over last 2 decades: Report
The United States has committed to reductions of between 50% and 52% below 2005 levels by 2030. Britain has pledged to cut emissions by 68% below 1990 levels.
Albanese’s government could face pressure in a new, greener Parliament to adopt an even more ambitious target.
Several seats have yet to be declared as counting continues following the election.
The center-left Labor Party administration will likely hold a narrow majority of 77 seats in the 151-seat House of Representatives where a majority of lawmakers is needed to form government.
Read: Climate change threatens access to water, sanitation
A record 16 lawmakers in the House will not be aligned with either the government or opposition.
The minor Greens party is on track to secure four seats, up from a single lawmaker in the last Parliament. The Greens want a 2030 reduction target of 75%. Newly elected independent lawmakers have called for a 60% target or at least 50%.
Greens senators could hold a balance of power in the upper chamber where major parties rarely hold a majority and need support from outside government to pass laws.
The 2030 commitment comes as much of Australia’s population faces soaring electricity and gas prices due in part to the Russia-Ukraine war.
Large parts of southeast Australia face the threat of blackouts for a range of reasons including an unusually cold start to the Southern Hemisphere winter and unscheduled outages of aging coal-fired generations that will be shut down within years and are not being adequately maintained.
Climate change wipes out $525 bn over last 2 decades: Report
A V20-commissioned report launched on Wednesday alongside the UN climate talks in Bonn, Germany, shows how climate change has already eliminated one fifth of the wealth of these countries, or US$ 525 billion, over the last two decades.
The V20 Group of finance ministers from climate vulnerable economies including Bangladesh called for the immediate establishment of a separate and dedicated international funding for loss and damage crisis-level adaptation action.
Also read: UN: Climate shocks, war fuel multiple looming food crises
The report, titled “Climate Vulnerable Economies Loss Report: Economic losses attributable to climate change in V20 economies over the last two decades (2000-2019)", shows that for the top ten per cent of worst at-risk of the V20 countries, economic losses due to climate change for the past two decades are estimated to exceed half of all growth.
The analysis provides the first ever estimate of the economic losses attributable to anthropogenic climate change only.
Economic losses cut GDP growth in the V20 by one full per cent each year on average which averaged 3.67% in 2019 across the vulnerable economies, according to a message received from Bonn.
From 2000 to 2019, the report estimated economic losses due to hydro-meteorological extreme events are higher than the previous two decades and the world’s most vulnerable economies are also not adapting fast enough to cope with the changing climate as it currently stands.
Though the study analysed historical economic losses, it also highlighted that these losses will continue to increase given the earth’s warming is set to progress to within 1.5 degrees Celsius in the next decade regardless of further actions to reduce emissions.
It noted that losses due to climate change have been growing over time, underscoring that countries are not adapting fast enough.
Kenneth Nana Yaw Ofori-Atta, Ghana Finance Minister, said this should sound alarm bells for the world economy, since V20 are fast-growing engines of global economic growth, whereas the climate crisis has the potential to bring that phase to an end if the world fails to act.
“The failure on the $100 billion of international climate finance delivery, particularly the failure to ensure a 50:50 balance for adaptation, has left us highly exposed. Meeting and exceeding the COP26 agreed Delivery Plan to make-up shortcomings on the $100 billion and to double adaptation finance by 2025 are therefore absolutely crucial to our and the world's economic well-being. But it is no longer enough,” he said.
Also read: Dhaka: Inadequate efforts for climate migrants may lead to global security risk
Minister Ofori-Atta said as matter of pragmatism and justice, the V20 and Climate Vulnerable Forum is calling on COP27 to establish an international financing mechanism for climate change loss and damage in solidarity with victims least responsible for, and least equipped to withstand, the increasingly extreme physical shocks driven by climate change.
Dr Michiel Schaeffer, chief scientist at Finres, author of the study, explained at 1.1°C of warming, the majority of V20 countries have already reached their optimum temperature - any further warming beyond this will cause an acceleration in the loss and damage experiences by societies - this report is an also urgent call for more stringent mitigation action in line with keeping global mean temperature increase below 1.5°C.
Florent Baarsch, CEO of Finres, who led the study, said results are extremely novel they built on new peer-reviewed scientific methods and data that did not exist less than a year ago.
Prof. Dr. Patrick Verkooijen, CEO of the Global Center on Adaptation, which hosts the V20 secretariat, while countries work hard to find enough ambition to reduce emissions within Paris Agreement bounds, the climate emergency has become the lived reality that is devastating lives around the globe.
“Acceleration adaptation at speed and at scale is a solution we have at hand right now to reduce loss and damage. It is not only proven to work but it is also a smart investment that will continue to pay off.”
Dr Seth Ofaso, Ghana CVF Presidency Envoy to the UNFCCC said the $100 billion commitment under the Paris Agreement is for mitigation and adaptation.
“When this was first negotiated over a decade ago, recognition of loss and damage was not what it is today. It is untenable that the world’s rich and responsible nations continue to refuse the poor, vulnerable and least responsible nations support for the crushing costs that we bear because of inaction on the climate crisis.”
Ghana highlighted how the V20 and Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF) are working unitedly for COP27 in Egypt later this year to deliver concrete results in terms of establishing international funding for loss and damage through a dedicated new instrument.
Dr Ofaso said what the V20 can do on its own is limited and only makes sense if the world’s rich, powerful and climate change responsible nations can be inspired by the V20’s breakthrough efforts and go beyond.
“It should fall on COP27 to decisively act on the void of finance for loss and damage in a clear litmus test for whether those fueling the climate crisis can truly begin to take responsibility for the breath of damage that has been unleashed by it.”
Dhaka seeks renewed global actions to combat climate change
Bangladesh has sought finance and technology transfer for the developing countries like Bangladesh to help them cope with the devastating impacts of climate change.
Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen raised the issue while delivering country statement at the Stockholm+50 international meeting, held in Stockholm, Sweden on Thursday.
Also read: FM Momen rues long delay in Teesta deal with India
Speaking at the plenary session of the meeting, Momen said that the Stockholm+50 platform has offered a unique opportunity to rethink the critical role of the global community for a resilient, healthy and prosperous planet for all.
He emphasized on Bangladesh government’s climate actions and initiatives to save the planet including ‘Mujib Climate Prosperity Plan’ and adoption of ‘Planetary Emergency’ resolution by the Parliament.
Stockholm+50 international meeting is convened by the United Nations and hosted by Sweden with support from the Government of Kenya.
Under the theme “Stockholm+50: a healthy planet for the prosperity of all–our responsibility, our opportunity,” this high-level meeting commemorates the 1972 United Nations Conference on the Human Environment and celebrate 50 years of global environmental action.
Around 150 members of the United Nations, members of the UN Specialized Agencies, IGOs, IFIs are taking part in this meeting.
On the sidelines of Stockholm+50, Momen attended an intergenerational roundtable on exploring how to better understand, think and act for future generations.
In the roundtable, he shared the important policies of the government to leave behind a safe, climate resilient and prosperous Bangladesh for the young generation.
Bangladesh also joined a “Ministerial Statement on Future Generations” which aims to recognize the responsibilities of the present generations towards future generations and take specific actions to leave a planet that will not be irreversibly damaged by climate change and other human activity.
He also held bilateral meetings with the Administrator of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the Executive Director of the Green Climate Fund (GCF).
During the meeting, the UNDP Administrator Achim Steiner highly praised Bangladesh’s commitment to the Paris Agreement and her leadership role in global climate actions.
Also read: FM urges UNHCR to expedite efforts at Rohingya repatriation to Myanmar
Momen sought support from UNDP in developing early warning system for flash floods, heightening embankments to serve both the purposes of protecting floods, creating carbon sinks by planting mangroves.
The foreign minister is scheduled to meet the Swedish Minister for International Development Cooperation and address at different leadership dialogue sessions and roundtables of the Stcokholm+50 on Friday.
States urged to redouble efforts to protect imperilled planet for current, future generations
Five decades after the world’s first conference to make the environment a major issue, UN human rights experts have called on States to redouble efforts to protect the imperilled planet for current and future generations amid unprecedented challenges.
“Some communities suffer from environmental injustices where the exposure to pollution and toxic substances is so extreme that they are described as ‘sacrifice zones’,” they said.
“Given humanity’s trajectory on toxics, climate change, and biodiversity loss, the planet is at risk of becoming a human sacrifice zone.”
Also read: Climate change threatens access to water, sanitation
David Boyd, the Special Rapporteur on human rights and the environment, urged States to put the right to a healthy environment at the centre of all discussions and outcomes at the Stockholm+50 conference on 2 and 3 June, and to implement constitutional changes and stronger environmental laws, stemming from the recognition of the right to a healthy environment.
Marcos Orellana, UN Special Rapporteur on toxics and human rights, urged Stockholm+50 not to forget how human rights inspired key elements of the 1972 Stockholm Declaration.
“This is a key moment for international environmental law to change direction and embrace a human rights-based approach to environmental protection,” he said.
The concept of the right to a healthy environment is rooted in the 1972 Stockholm Declaration, according to a message received from Geneva.
“Today, 50 years later, the Stockholm+50 conference represents the ideal forum to enthusiastically welcome the recent UN recognition of this right whilst also identifying urgent actions necessary for its implementation,” the experts said.
“Putting human rights at the centre of environmental action will have positive implications for air quality, clean water, healthy soil, sustainably produced food, green energy, climate change, biodiversity and the elimination of toxic substances and protection of indigenous people’s rights. Doing so has the potential to spark transformative changes and save millions of lives every year.
“We live in a time of unprecedented environmental challenges. The multiple crises relating to climate disruption, biodiversity loss and pervasive pollution are impacting the enjoyment of human rights and jeopardizing the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals.”
In October 2021, in a landmark resolution, the Human Rights Council recognised for the first time the human right to a clean, healthy and sustainable environment. The resolution marked the culmination of decades of efforts by a diverse array of civil society organisations, including youth groups, national human rights institutions and indigenous peoples.
Also read: Climate change costs poor women in Bangladesh up to 30pc of their outgoings
The Special Rapporteurs encouraged States to act upon Council’s invitation that ‘the General Assembly [...] consider the matter’ of the recognition of the right to a clean, healthy and sustainable environment at its earliest convenience. A General Assembly resolution on the right to a healthy environment would reinforce the urgency of actions to implement the right.
“We are all extraordinarily fortunate to live on this miraculous planet, and we must use the right to a healthy environment to ensure governments, businesses and people do a better job of taking care of the home that we all share.”
South Asia's intense heat wave a 'sign of things to come'
The devastating heat wave that has baked India and Pakistan in recent months was made more likely by climate change and is a glimpse of the region's future, international scientists said in a study released Monday.
The World Weather Attribution group analyzed historical weather data that suggested early, long heat waves that impact a massive geographical area are rare, once-a-century events. But the current level of global warming, caused by human-caused climate change, has made those heat waves 30 times more likely.
If global heating increases to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) more than pre-industrial levels, then heat waves like this could occur twice in a century and up to once every five years, said Arpita Mondal, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Technology in Mumbai, who was part of the study.
Also read: Delhi suffers at 49C as heatwave sweeps India
“This is a sign of things to come,” Mondal said.
The results are conservative: An analysis published last week by the United Kingdom’s Meteorological Office said the heat wave was probably made 100 times more likely by climate change, with such scorching temperatures likely to reoccur every three years.
The World Weather Attribution analysis is different as it is trying to calculate how specific aspects of the heat wave, such as the length and the region impacted, were made more likely by global warming. “The real result is probably somewhere between ours and the (U.K.) Met Office result for how much climate change increased this event,” said Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at the Imperial College of London, who was also a part of the study.
What is certain, though, is the devastation the heat wave has wreaked. India sweltered through the hottest March in the country since records began in 1901 and April was the warmest on record in Pakistan and parts of India. The effects have been cascading and widespread: A glacier burst in Pakistan, sending floods downstream; the early heat scorched wheat crops in India, forcing it to ban exports to nations reeling from food shortages due to Russia’s war in Ukraine; it also resulted in an early spike in electricity demand in India that depleted coal reserves, resulting in acute power shortages affecting millions.
Then there is the impact on human health. At least 90 people have died in the two nations, but the region’s insufficient death registration means that this is likely an undercount. South Asia is the most affected by heat stress, according to an analysis by The Associated Press of a dataset published Columbia University’s climate school. India alone is home to more than a third of the world’s population that lives in areas where extreme heat is rising.
Experts agree the heat wave underscores the need for the world to not just combat climate change by cutting down greenhouse gas emissions, but to also adapt to its harmful impacts as quickly as possible. Children and the elderly are most at risk from heat stress, but its impact is also inordinately bigger for the poor who may not have access to cooling or water and often live in crowded slums that are hotter than leafier, wealthier neighborhoods.
Rahman Ali, 42, a ragpicker in an eastern suburb of the Indian capital New Delhi earns less than $3 a day by collecting waste from people’s homes and sorting it to salvage whatever can be sold. It's backbreaking work and his tin-roofed home in the crowded slum offers little respite from the heat.
“What can we do? If I don’t work...we won’t eat,” said the father of two.
Some Indian cities have tried to find solutions. The western city of Ahmedabad was the first in South Asia to design a heat wave plan for its population of over 8.4 million, all the way back in 2013. The plan includes an early warning system that tells health workers and residents to prepare for heat waves, empowers administrations to keep parks open so that people can shade and provides information to schools so they're able to tweak their schedules.
Also read: Earth given 50-50 chance of hitting key warming mark by 2026
The city has also been trying to “cool” roofs by experimenting with various materials absorb heat differently. Their aim is to build roofs that’ll reflect the sun and bring down indoor temperatures by using white, reflective paint or cheaper materials like dried grass, said Dr. Dileep Mavalankar, who heads the Indian Institute of Public Health in western Indian city Gandhinagar and helped design the 2013 plan.
Most Indian cities are less prepared and India’s federal government is now working with 130 cities in 23 heat wave-prone states for them to develop similar plans. Earlier this month, the federal government also asked states to sensitize health workers on managing heat-related illnesses and ensure that ice packs, oral rehydration salts, and cooling appliances in hospitals were available.
But Mavalankar, who wasn't part of the study, pointed to the lack of government warnings in newspapers or TV for most Indian cities and said that local administrations had just not “woken up to the heat.”
Climate change threatens access to water, sanitation
Climate change is set to significantly increase pressure on people's access to water and sanitation unless governments do more to prepare key infrastructure now, according to the UN.
Climate change is already posing serious challenges to water and sanitation systems in countries around the world, Thomas Croll-Knight, spokesperson for the UN Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), said Friday.
Despite being a priority aligned with the Paris Climate Agreement, plans to make water access possible in the face of climate pressures, are absent in the pan-European region, according to the UNECE and the World Health Organization's Regional Office for Europe.
And "in most cases" throughout the region of 56 countries, there is also a lack of coordination on drinking water, sanitation and health.
From reduced water availability and contamination of water supplies to damage to sewerage infrastructure, these risks are set to increase significantly unless countries step up measures to increase resilience now, Croll-Knight said.
Also read: Climate change costs poor women in Bangladesh up to 30pc of their outgoings
It is estimated that more than one-third of the European Union will be under "high water stress" by the 2070s, by which time the number of additional people affected (compared to 2007) is expected to surge to 16–44 million.
And globally, each 1°C increase caused by global warming is projected to result in a 20 percent reduction in renewable water resources, affecting an additional seven percent of the population.
Meanwhile, as governments prepare for the next UN climate conference (COP 27) in November and the UN 2023 Water Conference, the UNECE painted a potentially grim picture moving forward in parts of Europe.
From water supply and sewerage infrastructure damage to water quality degradation and sewage spillage, impacts are already being felt.
For example, increased energy demand and disruption to treatment plants in Hungary are threatening significant additional operational costs for wastewater treatment.
Challenges in ensuring adequate water supply in the Netherlands have increased, while Spain struggles to maintain a minimum drinking water supply during drought periods.
Also read: President Hamid urges global efforts to combat climate change
Despite water management adaptation initiatives in many nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and national action programmes (NAPs) under the Paris Agreement, governance mechanisms and methods for integrating water and climate are absent, leaving the interface of drinking water, sanitation and health worryingly unaddressed, in most cases.
Over 59 million internally displaced in 2021
A record 59.1 million people were displaced within their homelands last year, 4 million more than in 2020, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) said Thursday.
For the past 15 years, most internal displacements were triggered by disasters, with annual numbers slightly higher than those related to conflict and violence.
Weather-related events such as floods, storms and cyclones resulted in some 23.7 million internal displacements in 2021, mainly in Asia Pacific.
With the expected impacts of climate change, and without ambitious climate action, numbers are likely to increase in the coming years, the IOM said.
Meanwhile, conflict and violence triggered 14.4 million internal displacements in 2021, a nearly 50 percent increase over the previous year.
The majority took place in Africa, particularly Ethiopia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, while Afghanistan and Myanmar saw unprecedented numbers of displacement.
Children and youth accounted for more than 40 percent of the total number of those internally displaced last year.
Also read: Ukraine war refugees top 5 million as assault intensifies
Climate change costs poor women in Bangladesh up to 30pc of their outgoings
Women heading poor, rural households in Bangladesh are spending up to 30 per cent of their total expenditure on measures to protect themselves from the impacts of climate change including flooding and storms, according to axnew research.
The study was done by International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED), Kingston University, the International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD) and UN Development Programme (UNDP).
Also read:President Hamid urges global efforts to combat climate change
The study, Still bearing the burden: how poor rural women in Bangladesh are paying most for climate risks, surveyed 3094 households from the rural areas of ten selected districts in Bangladesh to assess their exposure to climate change and their spending patterns on reducing the risks of climate-related disasters.
On average, 15 per cent of households’ expenditure is going on measures to protect against flooding and storms, like raising floors or building shelters for their livestock. But for households headed by women, that percentage doubles.
Across the districts, 83 per cent of households are affected by climate-related disasters and are spending about US$93 (BDTk 7493) a year privately on measures to reduce their risks.
This adds up to about US$1.8 billion. This study updates a 2019 review by IIED which used secondary data, and found similar estimates of total rural household level expenditure.
Sudipto Mukerjee, UNDP’s Resident Representative in Bangladesh said: “As in other climate vulnerable countries, it is the poorest in Bangladesh, with negligible carbon footprints and who can least afford it, who are bearing the bulk of the climate losses and adaptation costs. This amounts to gross climate injustice and hits at the heart of the fundamental rights of the poorest and weakest inhabitants of this ailing planet. “
Paul Steele, IIED’s Chief Economist said: “Our estimate of what people living in rural Bangladesh are spending on climate change is conservative - the true cost is likely to be even higher as this survey didn’t look at the costs of clean up and repair in the aftermath of cyclones, storms and floods.
“This just goes to show how the burden of paying for climate change is falling on the shoulders of those who have done least to cause it but are most vulnerable to it, and women are paying the highest price.”
Also read: Bangladesh needs to boost climate diplomacy: Experts
Different households’ exposure to catastrophic events varies both by region and by gender.
Households from the northern districts of Gaibandha, Jamalpur and Kurigram report high exposure to floods.
Storm exposure is mostly found in the southern coastal districts of Bagerhat, Barguna and Satkhira.
While households headed both by women and men experience a similar exposure to things like drought and excessive heat, those headed by women have a greater percentage exposure to floods, and a lower percentage exposure to storms. This is because the most flood-affected districts are in northern areas, such as the Greater Rangpur region, where due to seasonal migration men are often living away from the household.
The survey shows women tend to care more about reducing damage from climate-related disasters but in almost all cases, households headed by women are poorer and cannot spend at the same level as those headed by men.
They, therefore, spend a greater share of their income on climate adaptation.
President Hamid urges global efforts to combat climate change
President Abdul Hamid on Wednesday called for comprehensive global steps to combat the adverse effects of global warming on food security.
“We must turn our words into action. Climate change knows no boundary,” he said while addressing virtually the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security in South Asia at the senate building of Dhaka University.
Also read: Six non-resident envoys present credentials to President Hamid
The porgramme was organised by the International Committee of CCFS.
Saying ‘the world is more united than ever before in addressing the threats of climate change considering the vulnerabilities and the worst effect,’ the president said none can remain idle until this misfortune actually unfolds.
“The time of action cannot be delayed,” he emphasised.
Consolatory commitments, showy speeches, attractive slogans and presentation of substantial papers are not enough to mitigate the problem, he also said.
Earth given 50-50 chance of hitting key warming mark by 2026
The world is creeping closer to the warming threshold international agreements are trying to prevent, with nearly a 50-50 chance that Earth will temporarily hit that temperature mark within the next five years, teams of meteorologists across the globe predicted.
With human-made climate change continuing, there’s a 48% chance that the globe will reach a yearly average of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels of the late 1800s at least once between now and 2026, a bright red signal in climate change negotiations and science, a team of 11 different forecast centers predicted for the World Meteorological Organization late Monday.
The odds are inching up along with the thermometer. Last year, the same forecasters put the odds at closer to 40% and a decade ago it was only 10%.
The team, coordinated by the United Kingdom’s Meteorological Office, in their five-year general outlook said there is a 93% chance that the world will set a record for hottest year by the end of 2026. They also said there's a 93% chance that the five years from 2022 to 2026 will be the hottest on record. Forecasters also predict the devastating fire-prone megadrought in the U.S. Southwest will keep going.
Also read: Longest lightning bolt record: 477 miles over 3 US states
“We’re going to see continued warming in line with what is expected with climate change,” said UK Met Office senior scientist Leon Hermanson, who coordinated the report.
These forecasts are big picture global and regional climate predictions on a yearly and seasonal time scale based on long term averages and state of the art computer simulations. They are different than increasingly accurate weather forecasts that predict how hot or wet a certain day will be in specific places.
But even if the world hits that mark of 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial times — the globe has already warmed about 1.1 degrees (2 degrees Fahrenheit) since the late 1800s — that’s not quite the same as the global threshold first set by international negotiators in the 2015 Paris agreement. In 2018, a major United Nations science report predicted dramatic and dangerous effects on people and the world if warming exceeds 1.5 degrees.
The global 1.5 degree threshold is about the world being that warm not for one year, but over a 20- or 30- year time period, several scientists said. This is not what the report predicts. Meteorologists can only tell if Earth hits that average mark years, maybe a decade or two, after it is actually reached there because it is a long term average, Hermanson said.
“This is a warning of what will be just average in a few years,” said Cornell University climate scientist Natalie Mahowald, who wasn’t part of the forecast teams.
The prediction makes sense given how warm the world already is and an additional tenth of a degree Celsius (nearly two-tenths of a degree Fahrenheit) is expected because of human-caused climate change in the next five years, said climate scientist Zeke Hausfather of the tech company Stripe and Berkeley Earth, who wasn’t part of the forecast teams. Add to that the likelihood of a strong El Nino — the natural periodic warming of parts of the Pacific that alter world weather — which could toss another couple tenths of a degree on top temporarily and the world gets to 1.5 degrees.
The world is in the second straight year of a La Nina, the opposite of El Nino, which has a slight global cooling effect but isn’t enough to counter the overall warming of heat-trapping gases spewed by the burning of coal, oil and natural gas, scientists said. The five-year forecast says that La Nina is likely to end late this year or in 2023.
The greenhouse effect from fossil fuels is like putting global temperatures on a rising escalator. El Nino, La Nina and a handful of other natural weather variations are like taking steps up or down on that escalator, scientists said.
On a regional scale, the Arctic will still be warming during the winter at rate three times more than the globe on average. While the American Southwest and southwestern Europe are likely to be drier than normal the next five years, wetter than normal conditions are expected for Africa’s often arid Sahel region, northern Europe, northeast Brazil and Australia, the report predicted.
Also read: Rare, pristine coral reef found off Tahiti coast
The global team has been making these predictions informally for a decade and formally for about five years, with greater than 90% accuracy, Hermanson said.
NASA top climate scientist Gavin Schmidt said the figures in this report are “a little warmer” than what the U.S. NASA and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration use. He also had doubts about skill level on long-term regional predictions.
“Regardless of what is predicted here, we are very likely to exceed 1.5 degrees C in the next decade or so, but it doesn’t necessarily mean that we are committed to this in the long term — or that working to reduce further change is not worthwhile,” Schmidt said in an email.