Omicron
Global covid cases hit new high amid Omicron surge
The overall number of global coronavirus cases has surged past 287 million with European countries tightening Covid-19 restrictions as Omicron spreads.
According to Johns Hopkins University (JHU), the total case count mounted to 287,931,555 while the death toll from the virus reached 5,435,753 Saturday morning.
The US has recorded 54,570,527 cases so far and more than 825,536 people have died from the virus in the country, the university data shows.
Brazil, which has been experiencing a new wave of cases since January, registered 22,291,839 cases as of Friday, while its Covid death toll rose to 619,334.
India's Covid-19 tally rose to 34,838,804 on Saturday with 16,764 new cases as per the health ministry data.
Besides, as many as 220 deaths due to the pandemic were reported since Friday morning took the total death toll to 481,080.
READ: Global covid cases hit new high amid Omicron surge
Meanwhile, the country's Omicron tally reached 1,270 on Friday and at least 374 have recovered, the health ministry said.
Covid situation in Bangladesh
Bangladesh logged two Covid-linked deaths with 512 fresh infections in 24 hours till Friday morning.
With the detection of the fresh cases after testing 18,522 samples, the daily-case positivity rate increased to 2.74 per cent from Thursday’s 2.25 per cent during the period, said the Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS).
The fresh numbers reported on Friday took the country’s total fatalities to 28,072 while the caseload mounted to 15,85,539.
Meanwhile, the mortality rate remained static at 1.77 per cent during the period.
Besides, the recovery rate declined to 97.70 per cent with the recovery of 290 more patients during the 24-hour period.
Bangladesh reported daily Covid cases above 500 after two months. On October 13, the country logged 518 new Covid cases with 17 deaths.
Meanwhile, three more Covid cases of the Omicron variant have been detected in Bangladesh, raising the total tally to seven, according to GISAID, a global initiative on sharing all influenza data, shared the results on Wednesday.
READ: Global Covid: Cases top 286 million with Omicron surge
On December 9, Bangladesh again logged zero Covid-related death after nearly three weeks as the pandemic was apparently showing signs of easing.
The country reported this year’s first zero Covid death in a single day on November 20 along with 178 infections since the pandemic broke out in Bangladesh in March 2020.
Bangladesh reported the highest number of daily fatalities of 264 on August 5 this year, while the highest daily caseload was 16,230 on July 28 this year.
Omicron’s New Year’s cocktail: Sorrow, fear, hope for 2022
Sorrow for the dead and dying, fear of more infections to come and hopes for an end to the coronavirus pandemic were — again — the bittersweet cocktail with which the world said good riddance to 2021 and ushered in 2022.
New Year’s Eve, which used to be celebrated globally with a free-spirited wildness, felt instead like a case of deja vu, with the fast-spreading omicron variant again filing hospitals.
At the La Timone hospital in the southern French city of Marseille, Dr. Fouad Bouzana could only sigh when asked what 2022 might bring.
“It’s starting to become exhausting,” he said, “because the waves come one after another.”
The mostly muted New Year’s Eve celebrations around the world ushered in the fourth calendar year framed by the global pandemic. More than 285 million people have been infected by the coronavirus worldwide since late 2019 and more than 5 million have died.
In Paris, officials canceled the fireworks amid surging infections and reintroduced mandatory mask-wearing outdoors, an obligation followed by the majority of people who milled about on the Champs-Elysées as the final hours of 2021 ticked away.
READ: Minimal, yet festive: Nation welcomes New Year 2022
In Berlin, police urged people not to gather near the Brandenburg Gate, where a concert was staged without a live audience. In Madrid, authorities allowed only 7,000 people into the city’s Puerta del Sol downtown square, a venue traditionally hosting some 20,000 revelers.
In the United States, officials took a mixed approach to the year-end revelry: nixing the audience at a countdown concert in Los Angeles, scaling it back in New York yet going full speed ahead in Las Vegas, where 300,000 people were expected for a fireworks show on the strip.
President Joe Biden noted the losses and uncertainty caused by the pandemic but said: “We’re persevering. We’re recovering.”
“Back to work. Back to school. Back to joy,” Biden said in a video posted on Twitter. “That’s how we made it through this year. And how we’ll embrace the next. Together.”
In New York, officials planned to allow just 15,000 people — vaccinated and masked — inside the perimeter around Times Square, a sliver of the 1 million that typically squeeze in to watch the famed ball drop. Outgoing Mayor Bill de Blasio, defending the event, said people need to see that New York is open for business.
Yet by Thursday, rapper LL Cool J had dropped out of the New York telecast after a positive COVID-19 test and restaurant owners battered by staffing shortages and omicron cancelations throughout the holiday season struggled to stay open.
“I’m really scared for our industry,” said New York restaurateur David Rabin, who watched reservations and party bookings disappear this month. “No one made any money in December. The fact they may have a good night tonight, it has no impact.”
Airlines also struggled as the year came to a close, canceling thousands of flights after the virus struck flight crews and other personnel and amid bad weather.
The pandemic game-changer of 2021 — vaccinations — continued apace. Pakistan said it had fully vaccinated 70 million of its 220 million people this year and Britain said it met its goal of offering a vaccine booster shot to all adults by Friday.
In Russia, President Vladimir Putin mourned the dead, praised Russians for their strength in difficult times and soberly warned that the pandemic “isn’t retreating yet.” Russia’s virus task force has reported 308,860 COVID-19 deaths but its state statistics agency says the death toll has been more than double that.
“I would like to express words of sincere support to all those who lost their dear ones,” Putin said in a televised address broadcast just before midnight in each of Russia’s 11 time zones.
Elsewhere, the venue that many chose for New Year’s celebrations was the same place they became overly familiarly with during lockdowns: their homes.
Pope Francis also canceled his New Year’s Eve tradition of visiting the life-sized manger set up in St. Peter’s Square, again to avoid a crowd. In an unusual move for Francis, the 85-year-old pontiff donned a surgical mask for a Vespers service of prayer and hymns Friday evening as he sat in an armchair. But he also delivered a homily standing and unmasked.
READ: New Year’s Eve muted by omicron; many hoping for better 2022
“A sense of being lost has grown in the world during the pandemic,” Francis told the faithful in St. Peter’s Basilica.
France, Britain, Portugal and Australia were among countries that set new records for COVID-19 infections as 2021 gave way to 2022. Still, French President Emmanuel Macron expressed hope as he gave the last New Year’s address of his current term.
“Perhaps 2022 will be the year we come out of the epidemic — I want to believe that with you — the year where we will be able to see the exit from this day without end,” Macron said as he urged the unvaccinated to get the jab.
France’s unprecedented 232,200 new cases Friday marked its third day running above the 200,000 mark. The U.K. was close behind, with 189,846 new cases, also a record. In London, officials said as many as 1 in 15 people were infected with the virus in the week before Christmas. Hospitalizations of COVID-19 patients in the U.K. rose 68% in the last week, to the highest levels since February.
Yet boisterous New Year’s Eve celebrations kicked off in the Serbian capital of Belgrade where, unlike elsewhere in Europe, mass gatherings were allowed despite fears of the omicron variant. One medical expert predicted that Serbia will see thousands of new COVID-19 infections after the holidays.
At Expo 2020, the sprawling world’s fair outside Dubai, 26-year-old tourist Lujain Orfi prepared to throw caution to the wind on New Year’s Eve — her first time ever outside Saudi Arabia, where she lives in the holy city of Medina.
“If you don’t celebrate, life will pass you by,” she said. “I’m healthy and took two (vaccine) doses. We just have to enjoy.”
Australia went ahead with its celebrations despite reporting a record 32,000 new cases. Thousands of fireworks lit up the sky over Sydney’s Harbor Bridge and Opera House at midnight. Yet the crowds were far smaller than in pre-pandemic years.
In Japan, writer Naoki Matsuzawa said he would spend the next few days cooking and delivering food to the elderly because some stores would be closed. He said vaccinations had made people less anxious about the pandemic, despite the new variant.
“A numbness has set in, and we are no longer overly afraid,” said Matsuzawa, who lives in Yokohama, southwest of Tokyo. “Some of us are starting to take for granted that it won’t happen to me.”
South Korean authorities closed many beaches and other tourist attractions along the east coast, which usually swarm with people hoping to catch the year’s first sunrise.
In India, millions of people rang in the new year from their homes, with nighttime curfews and other restrictions taking the fizz out of celebrations in New Delhi, Mumbai and other large cities.
In mainland China, the Shanghai government canceled an annual light show along the Huangpu River that usually draws hundreds of thousands of spectators. There were no plans for public festivities in Beijing, where popular temples have been closed or had limited access since mid-December.
In the Philippines, a powerful typhoon two weeks ago wiped out basic necessities for tens of thousands of people ahead of New Year’s Eve. More than 400 were killed by Typhoon Rai and at least 82 remain missing.
Leahmer Singson, a 17-year-old mother, lost her home to a fire last month, and then the typhoon blew away her temporary wooden shack in Cebu city. She will welcome the new year with her husband, who works in a glass and aluminum factory, and her 1-year-old baby in a ramshackle tent in a clearing where hundreds of other families erected small tents from debris, rice sacks and tarpaulins.
Asked what she wants for the new year, Singson had a simple wish: “I hope we won’t get sick.”
6 provinces in Canada report new daily highs for coronavirus
Coronavirus infections set new one-day highs in six Canadian provinces Wednesday, prompting several provinces to impose more restrictions in hopes of containing the spread of the omicron variant.
The biggest jumps were in Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia, which are the country’s most populous provinces. Quebec reported more than 13,000 new cases in the previous 24 hours, Ontario had 10,436 and British Columbia listed 2,944.
Manitoba, Alberta, and Newfoundland and Labrador also set new records. Manitoba reported 947 new infections, which broke the previous high of 825 set just a day earlier. Alberta said it had 2,775 and Newfoundland and Labrador reported 312.
Read: 31st at Cox’s Bazar: Strict ban on outdoor events, but hotels buzzing
British Columbia announced it is delaying the full return to classrooms after the Christmas break to give school staff time to implement enhanced health measures. Staff and students whose parents are health workers will return to schools Jan. 3 or 4 as planned. All other students return Jan. 10.
Officials in Newfoundland and Labrador said its schools would shift to remote learning after the holiday break.
Read: Coronavirus cases surge across Australia as omicron spreads
Nunavut territory extended its ``circuit-breaker″ lockdown to Jan. 17 as a rise in infections strains its health care system. The rule put in place before Christmas bans indoor gatherings, closes libraries, gyms, arenas and churches, limits restaurants to takeout service.
New COVID-19 cases in US soar to highest levels on record
More than a year after the vaccine was rolled out, new cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. have soared to their highest level on record at over 265,000 per day on average, a surge driven largely by the highly contagious omicron variant.
New cases per day have more than doubled over the past two weeks, eclipsing the old mark of 250,000, set in mid-January, according to data kept by Johns Hopkins University.
The fast-spreading mutant version of the virus has cast a pall over Christmas and New Year’s, forcing communities to scale back or call off their festivities just weeks after it seemed as if Americans were about to enjoy an almost normal holiday season. Thousands of flights have been canceled amid staffing shortages blamed on the virus.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top U.S. infectious-disease expert, said Wednesday that there is no need to cancel small home gatherings among vaccinated and boosted family and friends.
But “if your plans are to go to a 40- to 50-person New Year’s Eve party with all the bells and whistles and everybody hugging and kissing and wishing each other a happy new year, I would strongly recommend that this year we not do that,” he said.
The threat of omicron and the desire to spend the holidays with friends and loved ones have spurred many Americans to get tested for COVID-19.
Read: India's Omicron tally crosses 350
Aravindh Shankar, 24, flew to San Jose, California, on Christmas from West Lafayette, Indiana, to be with family. Though he felt fine, he decided to get tested Wednesday just to play it safe, since he had been on an airplane.
He and his family spent almost an entire day searching for a testing appointment for him before he went to a site in a parking lot next to the San Jose airport.
“It was actually surprisingly hard,” Shankar said about trying to find a test. “Some people have it harder for sure.”
Read: French kids line up to get vaccine shots as omicron spreads
The picture is grim elsewhere around the world, especially in Europe, with World Health Organization chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus saying he is worried about omicron combining with the delta variant to produce a “tsunami” of cases. That, he said, will put “immense pressure on exhausted health workers and health systems on the brink of collapse.”
The number of Americans now in the hospital with COVID-19 is running at around 60,000, or about half the figure seen in January, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported.
While hospitalizations sometimes lag behind cases, the hospital figures may reflect both the protection conferred by the vaccine and the possibility that omicron is not making people as sick as previous versions.
COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. have climbed over the past two weeks from an average of 1,200 per day to around 1,500.
Public health experts will be closely watching the numbers in the coming week for indications of the vaccines’ effectiveness in preventing serious illness, keeping people out of the hospital and relieving strain on exhausted health care workers, said Bob Bednarczyk, a professor of global health and epidemiology at Emory University.
CDC data already suggests that the unvaccinated are hospitalized at much higher rates than those who have gotten inoculated, even if the effectiveness of the shots decreases over time, he said.
“If we’re able to weather this surge with hopefully minimal disruptions to the overall health care system, that is a place where vaccines are really showing their worth,” Bednarczyk said.
It’s highly unlikely that hospitalization numbers will ever rise to their previous peak, said Amesh Adalja, senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security at the Bloomberg School Public Health. Vaccines and treatments developed since last year have made it easier to curb the spread of the virus and minimize serious effects among people with breakthrough infections.
“Its going to take some time for people to get attuned to the fact that cases don’t matter the same way they did in the past,” Adalja said. “We have a lot of defense against it.”
But even with fewer people hospitalized compared with past surges, the virus can wreak havoc on hospitals and health care workers, he added.
“In a way, those hospitalizations are worse because they’re all preventable,” he said.
Several European countries, including France, Greece, Britain and Spain, also reported record case counts this week, prompting a ban on music at New Year’s celebrations in Greece and a renewed push to encourage vaccination by French authorities.
WHO reported that new COVID-19 cases worldwide increased 11% last week from the week before, with nearly 4.99 million recorded Dec. 20-26. But the U.N. health agency also noted a decline in cases in South Africa, where omicron was first detected just over a month ago.
3 more Omicron cases detected in Bangladesh
Three more Covid cases of the Omicron variant have been detected in Bangladesh, raising the total tally to seven.
According to GISAID, a global initiative on sharing all influenza data, shared the results on Wednesday.
With the fresh one, seven people have been diagnosed with Omicron in Bangladesh. Earlier, two more Omicron cases were detected in the country on Tuesday.
On December 11, Bangladesh reported its first two cases of the Omicron variant in two members of the Bangladesh women cricket team.
Read: 2 more Omicron cases detected in Bangladesh
They returned from Zimbabwe after taking part in the ICC Women's World Cup Qualifiers. The event was, however, called off midway due to the surge of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus.
After coming back to Dhaka, they were isolated in a hotel.
On December 6, the health department confirmed that two women cricketers were Covid-positive.
However, on December 20, Bangladesh Cricket Board (BCB) confirmed both the players tested negative for Covid.
Bangladesh all but certain to see Covid’s fresh wave
As the ‘super mutant’ Omicron strain of Covid-19 is spreading fast in many countries displacing the previously dominant Delta variant, experts warned that Bangladesh is all but certain to see a fresh wave of the deadly virus.
They also cautioned that the Omicron may take a heavy toll on over 8 crore unvaccinated people, mainly the kids and elderly people, if there is an outbreak of the Covid variant in the country amid people’s serious apathy to wear masks outside and maintain health safety rules.
Since Omicron is three times more transmissible than the Delta, the analysts advised the government to tighten the enforcement machinery to force people to follow all Covid-safety protocols alongside properly screening the incoming passengers through air and land ports and ensuring their quarantine.
They think all the incoming passengers coming from the Omicron-hit countries should be kept in institutional quarantine to prevent the spread of the highly contagious Covid variant.
Prof Dr Nazrul Islam, ex VC of BSMMU, Prof Dr Mushtuq Hussain, IEDCR’s consultant, and Prof Dr Bijon Kumar Sil, head of Gono Bishwabidyalay’s Microbiology department, made the observations while talking to UNB.
Health Minister Zahid Maleque also voiced concern that the Covid infection may spike in the country since most people do not wear masks and follow hygiene rules.
The country has been witnessing a steady rise in Covid cases for the last few days and the two first Omicron cases were reported here on December 11.
Read: Bangladesh bracing for third Covid wave?
Possible fresh wave
Noted Virologist Professor Dr Nazrul Islam said two people in the country have already been identified with Omicron variant. “So, its wave may come to Bangladesh, and we’ve to be very careful about those who are coming from abroad.”
He said the Covid infection has started increasing again and it may continue to grow slowly till February next. “The country is likely to face a fresh wave in March with the rise in temperature. The number of cases will go up alarmingly in the middle of that month.”
The expert said usually Covid infections remain low during winter due to the intervention of many other respiratory viruses and flus like influenza.
Prof Mushtaq Hussain said Bangladesh is at a high risk of witnessing a wave of Omicron in the days to come like the African and European countries. “Omicron is already in the community transmission stage in some African and European countries. So, there’s no reason to think that Bangladesh would not experience an outbreak of Omicron,” he said.
Though there is no fresh case of Omicron after two imported ones in the country, he said the infection rate may continue to surge after a few days.
“After the coronavirus infection was detected in Wuhan, China, and Delta strain in India, many people thought that it would not come to Bangladesh. But they were proved wrong. So, we fear a community transmission of Omicron in Bangladesh.”
Noted microbiologist Bijon Kumar Sil said Omicron will gradually spread to different areas of the country after deepening its roots.
He said Omicron has spread to over 100 countries within a month, showing its highly contagious nature. “So, I don’t think we’ll get rid of this virus. There may be some unidentified people in our country that is why the infection rate is now showing an uptrend.”
India's Omicron tally crosses 350
India's Omicron tally crossed 350 on Friday, with the health ministry on Christmas Eve recording over 120 fresh cases of the new Covid strain in 24 hours.
Indian Health Ministry said that as many as 122 new Omicron cases were reported in the past 24 hours, indicating the caseload nearly tripled in just one day. Delhi and the western state of Maharashtra are the worst hit, according to the Ministry data.
Asunder Maharashtra and Delhi, the southern Indian states of Telangana, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka also reported over 30 Omicron cases, as per the latest figures.
"The World Health Organisation on December 7 said that Omicron has a significant growth advantage over Delta which means, it has greater transmissibility.
Read: Omicron less likely to put you in the hospital, studies say
"Omicron cases double within 1.5-3 days, so we have to remain vigilant with Covid appropriate behaviour,” Health Secretary Rajesh Bhushan said at a media briefing in the national capital in the evening.
Overall, India recorded 6,650 new Covid-19 cases and 374 deaths in 24 hours till Friday morning.
Alarmed by the rising Omicron cases, India's federal government on Wednesday warned states that "the variant is three times more transmissible than the Delta" and directed them to take appropriate action to rein in its spread, including activation of a "war room".
Soon after the directive was issued, state after state announced curbs to prevent any mass outbreak of the Omicron strain.
While Delhi banned all Christmas and New Year gatherings, the neighbouring state of Haryana made it clear that unvaccinated people won't be allowed to enter public places like malls, restaurants, banks and offices from January 1.
Read: U.S. announces first recorded Omicron-related death
Another northern Indian state, Punjab, told all government employees that they won't get their salary unless they upload their vaccination certificate on the official portal.
On the other hand, the southern state of Karnataka made it mandatory for all international travellers to undergo quarantine for a week post-arrival, followed by an RT-PCR test on the eight day.
The World Health Organization has already warned that the "variant of concern" -- first detected in South Africa -- could have severe consequences in several countries.
Omicron less likely to put you in the hospital, studies say
Two new British studies provide some early hints that the omicron variant of the coronavirus may be milder than the delta version.
Scientists stress that even if the findings of these early studies hold up, any reductions in severity need to be weighed against the fact omicron spreads much faster than delta and is more able to evade vaccines. Sheer numbers of infections could still overwhelm hospitals.
Still, the new studies released Wednesday seem to bolster earlier research that suggests omicron may not be as harmful as the delta variant, said Manuel Ascano Jr., a Vanderbilt University biochemist who studies viruses.
“Cautious optimism is perhaps the best way to look at this,” he said.
Also read: Moderna: Initial booster data shows good results on omicron
An analysis from the Imperial College London COVID-19 response team estimated hospitalization risks for omicron cases in England, finding people infected with the variant are around 20% less likely to go to the hospital at all than those infected with the delta variant, and 40% less likely to be hospitalized for a night or more.
That analysis included all cases of COVID-19 confirmed by PCR tests in England in the first half of December in which the variant could be identified: 56,000 cases of omicron and 269,000 cases of delta.
A separate study out of Scotland, by scientists at the University of Edinburgh and other experts, suggested the risk of hospitalization was two-thirds less with omicron than delta. But that study pointed out that the nearly 24,000 omicron cases in Scotland were predominantly among younger adults ages 20 to 39. Younger people are much less likely to develop severe cases of COVID-19.
Also read: Booster at least 80% effective against severe Omicron
“This national investigation is one of the first to show that omicron is less likely to result in COVID-19 hospitalization than delta,” researchers wrote. While the findings are early observations, “they are encouraging,” the authors wrote.
The findings have not yet been reviewed by other experts, the gold standard in scientific research.
Ascano noted the studies have limitations. For example, the findings are specific to a certain point in time during a quickly changing situation in the United Kingdom and other countries may not fare the same way.
Matthew Binnicker, director of clinical virology at Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota, said that in the Scottish study, the percentage of younger people was almost twice as high for the omicron group compared with the delta group, and that “could have biased the conclusions to less severe outcomes caused by omicron.”
He nonetheless said the data were interesting and suggest omicron might lead to less severe disease. But he added: “It’s important to emphasize that if omicron has a much higher transmission rate compared to delta, the absolute number of people requiring hospitalization might still increase, despite less severe disease in most cases.”
Data out of South Africa, where the variant was first detected, have also suggested omicron might be milder there. Salim Abdool Karim, a clinical infectious disease epidemiologist in South Africa, said earlier this week that the rate of admissions to hospitals was far lower for omicron than it was for delta.
“Our overall admission rate is in the region of around 2% to 4% compared to previously, where it was closer to 20%,” he said. “So even though we’re seeing a lot of cases, very few are being admitted.”
India braces for third Covid wave
With Omicron cases rising by the day, India is on the cusp of a third wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. Public health experts who have sounded out the stark warning ahead of Christmas and New Year's eve celebrations believe that this should also serve as a wake-up call to neighbouring countries, including Bangladesh.
In the US, the rapidly spreading Omicron strain has already displaced the previously dominant Delta variant of the coronavirus, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In Europe too, as many as 38 countries have reported Omicron cases. Not to mention that the World Health Organization has already warned that the "variant of concern" -- first detected in South Africa -- could have severe consequences in several countries.
"A gradual surge in Omicron cases indicates that it's on its way to becoming the primary strain of Covid soon. We anticipate a mass outbreak in some states in February. Tightening the enforcement machinery to ensure that people follow all Covid-safety protocols is the need of the hour," Delhi-based expert Dr Disha Rau told UNB.
India has had 3,47,58,481 Covid infections and 4,78,325 deaths since the pandemic began last year. And the country's Omicron tally stands at 213, with the worst hit being Delhi and the western state of Maharashtra.
Read:India suffers double blow as black fungus declared epidemic amid COVID-19 surge
Alarmed by the rising Omicron cases, India's federal government on Wednesday warned states that "the variant is three times more transmissible than the Delta" and directed them to take appropriate action to rein in its spread, including activation of a "war room" and focussing on worst-affected districts.
Soon after the directive was issued, state after state announced curbs to prevent any mass outbreak of the Omicron strain. While the Indian capital banned all Christmas and New Year gatherings, the neighbouring state of Haryana made it clear that unvaccinated people won't be allowed to enter public places like malls, restaurants, banks and offices from January 1.
"All district magistrates shall conduct an intensive survey of the entire area falling under their jurisdiction and identify those pockets, colonies, markets and crowded places that have the potential of becoming superspreaders of coronavirus and its Omicron variant," the Delhi government said in its order.
Read:Covid-19: Why ‘world’s pharmacy’ India is short on shots
Another northern Indian state, Punjab, told all government employees that they won't get their salary unless they upload their vaccination certificate on the official portal. On the other hand, the southern state of Karnataka made it mandatory for all international travellers to undergo quarantine for a week post-arrival, followed by an RT-PCR test on the eight day.
"State-wise measures are okay, but people must follow social-distancing norms and wear masks to prevent any community spread of Omicron. Unvaccinated people face a higher risk of contracting Omicron. They should avoid crowded places and get the shots at the earliest," said MK Singh, a retired professor of the All India Institute of Medical Sciences.
Earlier this month, India's civil aviation regulator backtracked on its decision to resume regular international flights from December 15. The government put curbs on all flights in March last year in the wake of the Covid-induced lockdown. However, it allowed domestic flights from May 2020, and the entry of all foreigners except tourists from October that year.
South Africa's case drop may show omicron peak has passed
South Africa's noticeable drop in new COVID-19 cases in recent days may signal that the country's dramatic omicron-driven surge has passed its peak, medical experts say.
Daily virus case counts are notoriously unreliable, as they can be affected by uneven testing, reporting delays and other fluctuations. But they are offering one tantalizing hint — far from conclusive yet — that omicron infections may recede quickly after a ferocious spike.
South Africa has been at the forefront of the omicron wave and the world is watching for any signs of how it may play out there to try to understand what may be in store.
After hitting a high of nearly 27,000 new cases nationwide on Thursday, the numbers dropped to about 15,424 on Tuesday. In Gauteng province — South Africa’s most populous with 16 million people, including the largest city, Johannesburg, and the capital, Pretoria — the decrease started earlier and has continued.
Read:U.S. announces first recorded Omicron-related death
“The drop in new cases nationally combined with the sustained drop in new cases seen here in Gauteng province, which for weeks has been the center of this wave, indicates that we are past the peak," Marta Nunes, senior researcher at the Vaccines and Infectious Diseases Analytics department of the University of Witwatersrand, told The Associated Press.
“It was a short wave ... and the good news is that it was not very severe in terms of hospitalizations and deaths,” she said. It is "not unexpected in epidemiology that a very steep increase, like what we saw in November, is followed by a steep decrease.”
Gauteng province saw its numbers start sharply rising in mid-November. Scientists doing genetic sequencing quickly identified the new, highly mutated omicron variant that was announced to the world on Nov. 25.
Significantly more transmissible, omicron quickly achieved dominance in South Africa. An estimated 90% of COVID-19 cases in Gauteng province since mid-November have been omicron, according to tests.
And the world seems to be quickly following, with omicron already surpassing the delta variant as the dominant coronavirus strain in some countries. In the U.S., omicron accounted for 73% of new infections last week, health officials said — and the variant is responsible for an estimated 90% or more of new infections in the New York area, the Southeast, the industrial Midwest and the Pacific Northwest.
Confirmed coronavirus cases in the U.K. have surged by 60% in a week as omicron overtook delta as the dominant variant there. Worldwide, the variant has been detected in at least 89 countries, according to the World Health Organization.
In South Africa, experts worried that the sheer volume of new infections would overwhelm the country's hospitals, even though omicron appears to cause milder disease, with significantly less hospitalizations, patients needing oxygen and deaths.
But then cases in Gauteng started falling. After reaching 16,000 new infections on Dec. 12, the province's numbers have steadily dropped, to just over 3,300 cases Tuesday.
“It's significant. It's very significant,” Dr. Fareed Abdullah said of the decrease.
Read: Omicron sweeps across nation, now 73% of new US COVID cases
“The rapid rise of new cases has been followed by a rapid fall and it appears we're seeing the beginning of the decline of this wave,” said Abdullah, working in the COVID-19 ward at Pretoria's Steve Biko Academic Hospital.
In another sign that South Africa’s omicron surge may be receding, a study of health care professionals who tested positive for COVID-19 at Chris Hani Baragwanath hospital in Soweto shows a rapid increase and then a quick decline in cases.
“Two weeks ago we were seeing more than 20 new cases per day and now it is about five or six cases per day,” Nunes said.
But, she said, it is still very early and there are several factors that must be closely watched.
South Africa's positivity rate has remained high at 29%, up from just 2% in early November, indicating the virus is still circulating among the population at relatively high levels, she said.
And the country's holiday season is now underway, when many businesses close down for a month and people travel to visit family, often in rural areas. This could accelerate omicron’s spread across South Africa and to neighboring countries, experts said.
"In terms of the massive everyday doubling that we were seeing just over a week ago with huge numbers, that seems to have settled,” said Professor Veronica Uekermann, head of the COVID-19 response team at Steve Biko Academic Hospital.
“But it is way too early to suggest that we have passed the peak. There are too many external factors, including the movement during the holiday season and the general behavior during this period,” she said, noting that infections spiked last year after the holiday break.
It's summertime in South Africa and many gatherings are outdoors, which may make a difference between the omicron-driven wave here and the surges in Europe and North America, where people tend to gather indoors.
Another unknown factor is how much omicron has spread among South Africans without causing disease.
Some health officials in New York have suggested that because South Africa appears to have experienced a quick, mild wave of omicron, the variant may behave similarly there and elsewhere in the U.S. But Nunes cautions against jumping to those conclusions.
“Each setting, each country is different. The populations are different. The demographics of the population, the immunity is different in different countries,” she said. South Africa's population, with an average age of 27, is more youthful than many Western countries, for instance.
Most of the patients currently being treated for COVID-19 in hospitals are unvaccinated, Uekermann emphasized. About 40% of adult South Africans have been inoculated with two doses.
“All my patients in ICU are unvaccinated," Uekermann said. “So our vaccinated people are doing better in this wave, for sure. We have got some patients who are very ill with severe COVID, and these are unvaccinated patients.”