United News of Bangladesh

In the aftermath of a deadly attack in Pahalgam, a scenic area of India-administered Kashmir that left at least 26 people dead, tensions between India and Pakistan escalated, prompting both nations to take retaliatory diplomatic steps, including halting cross-border trade and suspending visa services. India blamed Pakistan for the April 22 assault, withdrew from a crucial water-sharing pact over the Indus River, and reduced its diplomatic presence in Islamabad. Pakistan rejected the allegations, demanded a neutral inquiry, and imposed a blanket suspension on trade with India — even via third countries. Trade ties between the two neighbours have been virtually frozen since 2019, and the Wagah-Attari land crossing, the primary official trade route, has also been sealed. Despite the breakdown in formal trade, experts say the actual level of commerce between the two countries is significantly higher, driven by indirect routes that bypass official scrutiny. Did India and Pakistan ever have robust trade relations?Yes. Trade commenced soon after the 1947 partition of British India. In 1996, India granted Pakistan “Most Favoured Nation” (MFN) status under World Trade Organization rules, mandating equal treatment among trading partners. Still, political friction, particularly over Kashmir, prevented trade from reaching its full potential. In the fiscal year 2017–18, official bilateral trade reached $2.41 billion, with India exporting $1.92 billion worth of goods and importing $488.5 million. However, after a deadly 2019 suicide bombing in Pulwama, India revoked Pakistan’s MFN status. By 2024, total trade had fallen to just $1.2 billion. Pakistan’s exports to India plunged from $547.5 million in 2019 to merely $480,000 by 2024. What’s the current state of official trade?Between April 2024 and January 2025, India’s exports to Pakistan stood at $447.7 million, while Pakistan’s exports totaled just $420,000, according to India’s Ministry of Commerce. India primarily exports pharmaceuticals, petroleum products, rubber, plastics, organic chemicals, spices, dairy, and cereals. Pakistan’s main exports to India include copper, glassware, fruits, oilseeds, and sulphur. Rubio calls India and Pakistan in effort to defuse crisis over Kashmir attack Trade lawyer Shantanu Singh noted that Pakistan’s pharmaceutical sector, which depends heavily on Indian imports, is likely to be hit hardest. He also pointed out that closing the Wagah-Attari Integrated Check Post (ICP) — the sole operational land trade route — will increase logistical costs and affect regional trade, particularly with Afghanistan. Is actual trade higher than reported?Yes. While official data puts Indian exports to Pakistan at $447.7 million, estimates from the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) suggest the real volume could be as high as $10 billion annually. This occurs through indirect channels, using countries like the UAE, Sri Lanka, and Singapore as intermediaries. How does this backchannel trade operate?According to GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava, Indian goods are first shipped to hubs like Dubai, Singapore, and Colombo. These goods are stored in bonded warehouses, where documents and origin labels are altered before being re-exported to Pakistan under a new country of origin. Srivastava explained that while this "grey-zone" trade may not always be illegal, it enables commerce to continue discreetly and profitably despite official restrictions. Is such trade common globally?Yes. Similar tactics are used worldwide to sidestep trade restrictions. Economist Jayati Ghosh cited India as a key transshipment point for Russian oil heading to Europe since the Ukraine war. In 2023, India imported 1.75 million barrels per day of Russian crude — up 140% from 2022 — making up 40% of its total crude imports in 2024. Likewise, economist Biswajit Dhar said China has long routed its exports to India via ASEAN countries to benefit from preferential trade terms, avoiding high tariffs that apply to direct Chinese imports. Dozens of tourist resorts in Indian-controlled Kashmir are closed after deadly attack Can informal India-Pakistan trade continue?Efforts are underway in both countries to monitor and potentially curb this unofficial trade. Pakistan’s new ban includes third-country trade routes, and Indian authorities are collecting data on indirect exports. However, enforcing these restrictions is challenging since private businesses — not governments — handle most of the rerouting and relabelling. Customs officials in Pakistan must determine whether imported goods truly originate from a listed third country or are merely Indian products disguised to bypass trade bans. Singh noted that proving the origin requires importers to provide documentation under Pakistani law. He stressed that increased scrutiny of imports may be necessary. Still, demand in Pakistan for Indian goods — especially given shared cultural preferences — ensures this trade is likely to persist. Higher margins and market demand incentivize traders to maintain indirect routes. As Singh put it, “This trade will continue because the demand exists. Traders won’t willingly give up a profitable business.” Dhar added that unless traders cooperate fully — which is unlikely — enforcing trade bans may prove futile. Have there been previous trade disruptions?Yes. The 1965 war halted trade, but the Tashkent Agreement in 1966 gradually restored ties. The 1971 war — leading to Bangladesh’s independence — again strained relations. Although the 1972 Simla Agreement aimed to normalise ties, trade has remained volatile. Tensions persist along India-Pakistan Kashmir border amid cross-border skirmishes In 2019, after the Pulwama bombing, India imposed 200% import duties on Pakistani goods. Months later, it revoked Jammu and Kashmir’s special status, prompting Pakistan to downgrade diplomatic relations and suspend trade. Since then, no formal trade negotiations have resumed. Source: With input from agency

General Motors is lowering its profit expectations for the year as the carmaker braces for the potential impact from auto tariffs being rolled out by the US. GM announced early this week that it was reassessing its expectations for 2025 due to tariffs. The company said at the time that its initial full-year financial outlook didn’t contemplate their potential impact, reports AP. On Thursday the automaker said that it now foresees full-year adjusted earnings before interest and taxes in a range of $10 billion to $12.5 billion. The guidance includes a current tariff exposure of $4 billion to $5 billion. GM previously predicted 2025 adjusted EBIT between $13.7 billion and $15.7 billion. The revised forecast comes after President Donald Trump signed executive orders Tuesday to relax some of his 25% tariffs on automobiles and auto parts, a significant reversal as the import taxes threatened to hurt domestic manufacturers. Tariffs, oil prices and other uncertainties weighing down Mideast economies, IMF says Automakers and independent analyses have indicated that the tariffs could raise prices, reduce sales and make US production less competitive worldwide. Trump portrayed the changes as a bridge toward automakers moving more production into the United States. Still, it remains unclear what impact Trump’s broader tariffs will have on the US economy and auto sales. Most economists say the tariffs — which could ultimately hit most imports — would raise prices and slow economic growth, possibly hurting auto sales despite the relief that the administration intends to offer on its previous policies. In a letter to shareholders on Thursday, General Motors CEO Mary Barra said that the automaker looks forward to maintaining its strong dialogue with the Trump administration on trade and other evolving policies. “As you know, there are ongoing discussions with key trade partners that may also have an impact,” she said. “We will continue to be nimble and disciplined and update you as we know more.” Shares of GM climbed more than 2% before the opening bell.

Countries across the Middle East and North Africa face significant challenges to economic growth as the region faces economic uncertainty due to tariff measures, lower-than-recent oil prices and cuts to financial aid, the International Monetary Fund said Wednesday. The IMF's regional outlook report for the MENA region said Brent crude oil prices — which are down from highs above $120 a barrel in 2022 — are likely to be $65 to $69 per barrel in 2025 and 2026, making energy-exporting economies vulnerable to market fluctuations. Tariff plans by the U.S. and other countries and geopolitical tensions also have created mounting economic uncertainty globally that is weighing down on the region's economies, which could negatively impact their growth by anywhere from 2% to 4.5%, said Jihad Azour, director for Middle East and Central Asia at the IMF. "Therefore countries need to react and need to devise policies in order to protect their economies,” Azour said in an interview in Dubai. Caterpillar warns tariffs may raise Q2 costs by $350m as sales decline Reductions in foreign aid coming into the region also will play a role, Azour said, as U.S. President Donald Trump has pulled his country back from its position as the world’s single largest aid donor. “The drop in international assistance, especially for countries in fragility, is something that is creating new risks for the region,” Azour said. Growth in the MENA region is expected to be 2.6% this year, as compared to 1.8% last year, Azour said, but he added that global uncertainty could impact the outlook. Economies in the Persian Gulf continue to attract substantial foreign direct investment, rising by nearly 2% of GDP since the pandemic, while other MENA nations struggle with slower inflows. The IMF says it is willing to work with some of the struggling nations and the new government in Syria. He also said that IMF staff and Lebanese officials were in discussions in Lebanon. “The Syria recovery will be a long process that would require mobilization of regional and international support and also a comprehensive program of building institutions, reforming their economy, and also addressing a certain number of key issues like infrastructure, refugees and rebuilding a new social contact,” Azour said. Samsung sees revenue boost from smartphone sales despite chip slump Despite the global economic uncertainty, MENA nations can drive growth through structural reforms and diversifying economic ties, the report said.

Caterpillar Inc on Wednesday said it expects tariffs could push its second-quarter costs up by as much as $350 million, as the company reported a drop in first-quarter sales amid weakening demand for its machinery. Despite recent developments in the US trade policy — including President Donald Trump’s order on Tuesday easing tariffs on imported cars and parts — uncertainty remains over the broader impact of the ongoing trade war on the American economy, reports AP. The construction and mining equipment maker reported revenue of $14.25 billion for the first quarter, down from $15.8 billion a year ago. The figure also fell short of the $14.54 billion forecast by analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research. Sales volume fell by $1.1 billion, while dealer inventories increased by $100 million — a notable decrease compared to the $1.4 billion inventory build in the same period last year. Samsung sees revenue boost from smartphone sales despite chip slump Net income dropped to $2 billion, or $4.20 per share, compared with $2.86 billion, or $5.75 per share, a year earlier. Excluding restructuring costs, adjusted earnings were $4.25 per share, slightly below Wall Street’s expectation of $4.30 per share. Earlier in April, Caterpillar announced that CEO D. James Umpleby III will transition to executive chairman on 1 May, with Chief Operating Officer Joseph Creed set to take over as CEO and join the board. Umpleby has held the top role for eight years. Caterpillar expects second-quarter sales to remain similar year-over-year and forecasts a slight decline in full-year sales, consistent with previous guidance. Shares rose over 3% in premarket trading.

Samsung Electronics reported a record-high consolidated revenue of 79.14 trillion won ($56 billion) for the January–March quarter, driven by strong sales of its flagship Galaxy S25 and other premium smartphones. The tech giant’s operating profit rose slightly to 6.7 trillion won ($4.7 billion), up from 6.61 trillion won ($4.6 billion) in the same period last year, reports AP. Weak grid investment slows Asia-Pacific energy transition: ADB However, the company’s semiconductor business saw a sharp decline in profitability. Operating profit for the division fell to 1.1 trillion won ($774 million), down from 1.91 trillion won ($1.3 billion) a year ago. Samsung attributed the decline to falling average selling prices and reduced demand for high-bandwidth memory, as customers await next-generation chip releases. While the mobile business continues to drive growth, the chip unit—historically a key profit engine for Samsung—faces pressure from market uncertainties and cautious customer spending. The company expects the launch of new memory products to revive demand in the coming quarters.

Amazon says it's not planning to display added tariff costs next to product prices on its site — despite a report that sparked speculation the e-commerce giant would soon show the new import charges, and the White House's fiery comments denouncing the purported change. The Trump administration’s reaction appeared to be based on a misinterpretation of internal plans being considered by Amazon, rather than a final decision made by the company. And even those talks were limited. Only Amazon's Haul service — its recently launched, low-cost storefront — “considered the idea” of listing import charges on certain products, company spokesperson Tim Doyle said in a statement sent to The Associated Press. But this "was never approved and is not going to happen.” Earlier Tuesday, Punchbowl News had reported that Amazon planned to start showing how much of each product's cost derived from tariffs “right next to” its total listed price, citing an anonymous source familiar with the matter. The Trump administration was quick to criticize news of the potential move. At a briefing with reporters earlier in the day, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt accused Amazon of taking a “hostile and political act” — and further attacked the company by suggesting it had “partnered with a Chinese propaganda arm.” A source familiar with the matter, who spoke of the condition of anonymity, told The Associated Press that the president also called Amazon founder Jeff Bezos to complain about the reported plans Tuesday morning. FTC withdraws request to delay Amazon trial, says it has sufficient resources The administration seemed to change its tune following Amazon's clarifying statement. “Jeff Bezos was very nice. He was terrific," President Donald Trump told reporters before leaving the White House for Michigan on Tuesday afternoon. "He solved a problem very quickly and he did the right thing. He’s a good guy.” Bezos was one of a handful of powerful, ultra-wealthy tech titans who attended Trump's inauguration in January — filling some of the most exclusive seats right behind the president. But Trump's relationship with much of the corporate world has been tested since, as the tariff wars he's launched with nearly all of America's trading partners continue to plunge companies into uncertainty. Trump’s tariffs — and responding retaliation from targeted countries, notably China — threaten to increase prices for both consumers and businesses. Economists warn these import taxes will hike prices for a range of goods consumers buy each day and lead to worse inflationary pressure. There's a reason why the Trump administration responded the way it did to Tuesday's Amazon speculation, explains Rob Lalka, a professor of business at Tulane University’s Freeman School — noting that such quick and harsh words from the White House signals concern about companies "redirecting customer frustration.” At the same time, volatile tariffs put a lot on the line for businesses like Amazon — and those companies may have to play ball, too, while trying to be transparent with customers. Many CEOs across industries have recently shared weaker outlooks due to the new — and at times on-again, off again — import taxes. And some big names have already raised prices while specifically pointing to the costs of tariffs, including Amazon rivals Temu and Shein. Earlier this month, Temu and Shein said in separate but nearly identical notices that their operating expenses had gone up “due to recent changes in global trade rules and tariffs" — both announcing price hikes to take effect last Friday (April 25). Temu, owned by the Chinese e-commerce company PDD Holdings, now lists added "import charges" — which have reportedly doubled many items' prices, although those available in local warehouses currently appear to be exempt. Meanwhile, Shein, now based in Singapore, has a checkout banner that reads, “Tariffs are included in the price you pay. You’ll never have to pay extra at delivery.” Amazon workers in North Carolina vote against joining union Tariffs may now be in the spotlight like they never were before — but companies have long itemized added costs to the things we purchase, Lalka notes, from city occupancy taxes on a hotel bill to rideshare apps like Uber breaking out local fees. And Amazon itself “already turned to this playbook” when it began collecting state sales taxes, he adds, although another line in your online shopping cart may be less apparent than potentially seeing total import taxes next to each product you scroll by. It's a message regardless, he explains. “Companies are always communicating something with us when whenever they are putting things in their receipt,” Lalka said — adding that, while Amazon later confirmed it wasn't actually breaking out tariff prices, the idea didn't come from nowhere. “The reality is that politics are always being played."

U.S. stocks drifted to a mixed finish on Monday, ahead of potential flashpoints this week that could bring more sharp swings for financial markets. The S&P 500 inched up by 0.1% to extend its winning streak to a fifth day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 114 points, or 0.3%, and the Nasdaq composite slipped 0.1%. The relative lull in trading offered a respite from the sharp, historic swings that have rocked markets for weeks, as hopes rose and fell that President Donald Trump may back down on his trade war. Many investors believe Trump’s tariffs could cause a recession if left unaltered. Coming into Monday, the S&P 500 had roughly halved its drop that had taken it nearly 20% below its record set earlier this year. Mixed trading for some influential tech stocks ahead of their earnings reports this week pulled the S&P 500 back and forth between modest gains and losses for much of Monday. Amazon fell 0.7%, Microsoft dipped 0.2%, Meta Platforms added 0.4% and Apple rose 0.4%. All are on the schedule to report their latest result this week, and they’re some of Wall Street’s most influential companies because they’ve grown to become some of the biggest in terms of size, by far. That gives their movements extra weight on the S&P 500 and other indexes. Outside of Big Tech, executives from Caterpillar, Exxon Mobil and McDonald’s may also offer clues this week about how they’re seeing economic conditions play out. Several companies across industries have already slashed their estimates for upcoming profit or pulled their forecasts entirely because of uncertainty about what will happen with Trump’s tariffs. Market turmoil has many afraid to check retirement savings “We heard more plans to mitigate tariff impacts than in prior months and than during 2018” from U.S. companies, including pre-ordering, shifting production and increasing prices for their own products, according to Bank of America strategist Savita Subramanian. But she also said in a report that she’s seeing “some indications of a pause: no hiring/no firing, no new projects/no cancellations etc.” A fear is that Trump’s on-again-off-again tariffs may be pushing households and businesses to alter their spending and freeze plans for long-term investment because of how quickly conditions can change, seemingly by the hour. All told, the S&P 500 rose 3.54 points to 5,528.75. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 114.09 to 40,227.59, and the Nasdaq composite edged down by 16.81 to 17,366.13. So far, economic reports have mostly seemed to show the U.S. economy is still growing, though at a weaker pace. On Wednesday, economists expect a report to say U.S. economic growth slowed to a 0.8% annual rate in the first three months of this year, down from a 2.4% pace at the end of last year. But most reports Wall Street has received so far have focused on data from before Trump’s “Liberation Day” on April 2, when he announced tariffs that could affect imports from countries worldwide. That could raise the stakes for upcoming reports on the U.S. job market, including Friday’s, which will show how many workers employers hired during all of April. Economists expect it to show a slowdown in hiring down to 125,000 from 228,000 in March. The most jarring economic data recently have come from surveys showing U.S. consumers are getting much more pessimistic about the economy’s future because of tariffs. The Conference Board’s latest reading on consumer confidence will arrive on Tuesday. In the bond market, Treasury yields fell some more. They’ve largely been sinking since an unsettling, unusual spurt higher in yields earlier this month rattled both Wall Street and the U.S. government. That rise had suggested investors worldwide may have been losing faith in the U.S. bond market’s reputation as a safe place to park cash. Asian shares soar after Wall Street rallies into a 3rd day The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.21% from 4.29% late Friday. It’s been pulling back recently as weaker-than-expected reports on the economy bolster expectations among investors that the Federal Reserve will deliver cuts to interest rates later this year. Such cuts could juice the economy by making it easier for households and companies to borrow and spend. In stock markets abroad, indexes were mixed amid modest moves across much of Europe and Asia. The CAC 40 in Paris rose 0.5%, but stocks slipped 0.2% in Shanghai.

Michael Montgomery once checked his retirement account weekly with a sense of satisfaction. But recently, to avoid the stress and doubt about whether he can still retire soon, he’s taken a different approach. “I’m not looking,” says the 66-year-old professor from Huntington Woods, Michigan. As the White House fuels market uncertainty through its trade war while downplaying the risk of a recession, many retired and soon-to-retire Americans are growing uneasy—concerned about outliving their savings or delaying long-awaited bucket list plans. Keeping logged off his account has made Montgomery’s days less worrisome. He and his wife adjusted their portfolio after Election Day, including moving more money into bonds. But he’s not sure what more he can do if the entire world economy can be affected by Washington’s decisions. 10 Best Free Online Courses to Become a Copywriter in 2025 “I hope like hell I don’t lose all my retirement savings,” he says. “But where else could you put the money that these people could not disorder? They can’t get into your mattress but that’s about it.”   Many experts warned U.S. stocks were overpriced and due for a correction even before President Donald Trump reclaimed the Oval Office. But a historic blanket of tariffs have injected new uncertainty into the market. Though stocks rallied this week, the S&P 500 is down 10% from an all-time high reached in February. Losses in the Nasdaq and among small-cap stocks are steeper. Even bonds and the U.S. dollar have been volatile. Many economists are warning of a possible recession. It has 71-year-old Jeanne Oats Estridge feeling so “paranoid” she called her financial planner with an idea. “How about we put it all in cash?” Oats Estridge asked. “I just don’t advise it,” she heard back. Earlier this month, the Cboe Volatility Index, considered a “fear gauge” of investor pessimism, reached its highest level in five years. The index, known as VIX, has since retreated but is still in territory reflecting fearful investors. Another measure of market sentiment, the Cboe S&P 500 Left Tail Volatility Index, which tracks investor worry about so-called “black swan” events such as the 2008 housing crash that spurred the Great Recession, likewise has backed off from highs but remains elevated. Trump has urged people to “be cool” in assessing the impact of tariffs on their investments. Asked about his own savings earlier this month, he chuckled and replied: “I haven’t checked my 401(k).” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, meantime, brushed off the possibility that some might need to delay retiring, saying people “don’t look at the day-to-day fluctuations of what’s happening.” That seeming nonchalance isn’t sitting well with some older investors. Peter Rost, 72, retired from his software development job last year and planned to start tapping his retirement savings to supplement Social Security. But he doesn’t want to bake in his losses. “I’m looking to take $2,000 and meanwhile the account drops by $30,000,” he says. He’s been through serious downturns before, but those were different. “I had the time to be patient and let it work its way back,” says Rost, who lives in New Hartford, Connecticut, “but now I’m retired and I need money from that account.” At his age, he says, there’s one goal: “Make sure I don’t run out of money before I die.” Americans’ retirement savings totaled about $44 trillion at the end of 2024, according to the Investment Company Institute. The composition of those savings has shifted increasingly toward stocks in the last couple decades as the 401(k) has become employers’ typical offering. Among fund giant Vanguard’s nearly 5 million accounts, for example, the average investor puts three-quarters of their savings in stocks. Even older investors are still heavily steeped in equities: People 55 to 64 have 64% in stocks at Vanguard; those 65 and older have 49% in stocks. With that exposure, financial advisers are getting an influx of calls amid the recent market uncertainty. Paul Duesterhaus, a 68-year-old retiree from Quincy, Illinois, is passing up an IRA withdrawal this year to avoid selling at a low. Instead, the retired manager at an air compressor manufacturing company will put off buying a new car as planned and cut back on things like eating out. Still, he can’t help but feel bigger impacts of a trade war are ahead. “I think there’s going to be longer lasting effects that are going to affect every American,” he says. That angst is more common among older adults than younger people. An April poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found just under half of U.S. adults ages 45 and older said their retirement savings are a “major” source of stress for them right now, compared to about one-third of younger people. Older Americans were also more likely to say they’re stressed about the stock market.    

Asian stock markets climbed in early trading on Friday, following a third consecutive day of gains on Wall Street, fueled by optimism that the Federal Reserve may move to cut interest rates. Japan's Nikkei 225 jumped 1.9% to reach 35,701.38, while South Korea's Kospi advanced 1% to 2,547.39. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.4% to 22,226.19. Meanwhile, China’s Shanghai Composite Index was mostly flat, hovering at 3,297.36. Investor sentiment was lifted by speculation that former President Donald Trump may be easing his stance on tariffs and taking a softer tone toward the Federal Reserve. However, Beijing pushed back on Thursday, stating that China is not currently engaged in active trade talks with the U.S. Elsewhere in the region, Taiwan’s Taiex saw a strong gain of 2.3%, while markets in Australia remained closed in observance of Anzac Day. Growth slows for South Asia, Bangladesh hit too: WB Wall Street’s rally kept rolling Thursday as better-than-expected profits for U.S. companies piled up in reports mainly from tech companies like ServiceNow and Texas Instruments, offsetting the uncertainties in the retail sector. Federal Reserve officials boosted expectations for interest rate cuts as they said that they would slash the rate as early as June if Trump’s tariffs hurt the U.S. economy and job market. The S&P 500 charged 2% higher to 5,484.77 and pulled within 11% of its record set earlier this year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.2% to 40,093.40, while the Nasdaq composite jumped 2.7% to 17,166.04. In other moves early Friday, U.S. benchmark crude oil gained 13 cents to $62.92 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude, the international standard, added 22 cents to $66.77 per barrel. The U.S dollar rose to 142.96 Japanese yen from 142.69 yen. The euro edged lower, to $1.1349 from $1.1391.    

Amid mounting global economic uncertainties, South Asia's growth outlook is showing signs of strain, with Bangladesh no exception, according to the latest assessment by the World Bank. The multilateral lender has warned that the region’s economic momentum is losing steam due to a confluence of external shocks, tightening financial conditions, and domestic vulnerabilities, casting a shadow over near-term development prospects. Bessent criticises IMF, World Bank; sees ‘big deal’ opportunity with China A significant decrease in export growth and low investment have contributed to economic slowdown in Bangladesh in FY24, but growth is expected to rebound in the medium term, says the World Bank in its twice-yearly update, released on Thursday. The latest Bangladesh Development Update highlights the recent economic developments and outlook for the medium term, with a special focus on financial sector stability. After a fall in real GDP growth to 4.2 percent in FY24 from 5.8 percent in FY23, economic activity slowed further in FY25. The economy continues to face significant challenges, including investment moderation, elevated inflation and vulnerabilities within the financial sector. Meanwhile, external sector pressures have apparently eased, with robust growth in remittance inflows and exports bolstering the current account balance in FY25. Reforms in key sectors could create millions of jobs in Bangladesh: World Bank Real GDP growth is projected to further moderate to 3.3 percent in FY25 due to declining private and public investment. Political uncertainty and rising costs associated with borrowing and inputs are expected to constrain private investment growth and keep industrial growth subdued. Public investment will decline as the government reduces capital expenditure in FY25. The fiscal deficit is expected to remain under 5 percent of GDP in the medium term, with capital expenditure increasing only gradually. Inflation is likely to remain elevated in the near term. World Bank’s Vice President for South Asia Martin Raiser said multiple shocks over the past decade have left South Asian countries with limited buffers to withstand an increasingly challenging global environment. “The region needs targeted reforms to strengthen economic resilience and unlock faster growth and job creation. Now is the time to open to trade, modernize agricultural sectors, and boost private sector dynamism.” World Bank Interim Country Director for Bangladesh Gayle Martin mentioned that the country will need bold and urgent reforms to bolster the financial sector, facilitate trade and enhance domestic revenue mobilization. Real GDP is expected to rise gradually in the medium term, if backed by critical reforms. Inflation is expected to gradually subside in the medium term on the back of tight monetary policy, fiscal consolidation and easing import restrictions on key food commodities. Rising trade uncertainties are expected to put pressure on the external sector. World Bank’s Senior Economist Dhruv Sharma, who is also the co-author of the report, said the risks to the outlook are on the downside as uncertainties related to trade, persistent inflationary pressure, weak demand in Bangladesh's major export markets and intensifying financial sector vulnerabilities could weigh on growth. The Bangladesh Development Update is a companion piece to the South Asia Development Update, a twice-a-year World Bank report that examines economic developments and prospects in the South Asia region and analyses policy challenges countries are facing. The April 2025 edition, Taxing Times, projects regional growth to slow to 5.8 percent in 2025—0.4 percentage points below October projections—before ticking up to 6.1 percent in 2026. This outlook is subject to heightened risks, including from a highly uncertain global landscape, combined with domestic vulnerabilities including constrained fiscal space. It includes a special chapter analysing the state of domestic resource mobilization in the region. Despite often higher tax rates, the region's tax revenues remain below the average for emerging markets and developing economies. The report outlines how countries can address inefficiencies in tax policy and administration to increase revenues so that they can enhance resilience amid an increasingly challenging global economic environment.