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NATO allies puzzled by Trump’s sudden shift on US troop plans in Europe
NATO allies and defense officials have expressed confusion after U.S. President Donald Trump abruptly announced he would send 5,000 American troops to Poland, just weeks after ordering the withdrawal of the same number of troops from Europe.
Swedish Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard said the situation was hard to follow and created uncertainty for allies. Speaking at a NATO meeting in Helsingborg, she said it was “confusing” and not easy to manage, as foreign ministers gathered with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Defense officials also admitted they were unsure about the decision. One U.S. official said they had spent two weeks responding to earlier plans to reduce troop levels and still did not fully understand the latest change.
In a post on Truth Social, Trump said the United States would send an additional 5,000 troops to Poland, pointing to his close ties with Polish President Karol Nawrocki, whom he supported during last year’s election.
The move marks a sharp reversal from recent signals from the Trump administration, which had suggested cutting the U.S. military presence in Europe rather than increasing it.
Officials within NATO said allies had been taken by surprise, even though Washington had earlier promised better coordination on troop movements. NATO military chief U.S. Lt. Gen. Alex Grynkewich said the alliance would continue working closely with partners to stay aligned on decisions.
Some European ministers, including those from the Netherlands and Norway, said they were not alarmed but stressed that any changes should follow a clear and structured process. Latvia’s Foreign Minister Baiba Braže said allies were aware that the U.S. was reviewing its troop posture, and that for now there appeared to be no major change.
Earlier this month, the Trump administration had announced plans to reduce its presence in Europe by about 5,000 troops. Around 4,000 troops were also reported to have been removed from planned deployment to Poland, while the transfer of some U.S. missile-trained personnel to Germany was paused.
Grynkewich said several hundred troops would be reassigned elsewhere but did not provide details. He also met defense chiefs from Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland at NATO headquarters to discuss options.
The policy shift comes amid tensions following comments by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who criticized U.S. strategy on Iran and suggested Washington was being disrespected by Tehran. Trump responded by saying troop cuts could go “far beyond 5,000” and also announced new tariffs on European cars.
About 80,000 U.S. troops are currently stationed in Europe. Under Pentagon rules, at least 76,000 troops and key equipment must remain unless allies are consulted and it is judged to be in U.S. interest to reduce that level.
Trump’s latest remarks suggest troop levels may remain largely unchanged, with forces rotating into Poland from Germany expected to continue. Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski welcomed the move, saying it would keep American troop presence in Poland at roughly current levels.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte also supported continued coordination. He said Europe must take greater responsibility for its own security but stressed that existing consultation processes were working as normal.
The meeting in Helsingborg was held to prepare for a planned summit between Trump and NATO leaders in Turkey in July.
28 days ago
Hajj and Eid-ul-Azha: Significance of two major Islamic observances
Once a year, large numbers of Muslim pilgrims converge in Saudi Arabia, uniting in religious rituals and acts of worship as they perform the Hajj. While fulfilling a religious obligation, they immerse themselves in what can be a spiritual experience of a lifetime for them and a chance to seek God’s forgiveness and the erasure of past sins.
This year, the Hajj has been approaching against the backdrop of a tenuous ceasefire in the Iran war and related tensions and uncertainty in the Middle East.
Earlier in the year, travel chaos from the war ensnared some of the Muslims who were in Saudi Arabia performing “Umrah,” often referred to as the lesser or minor pilgrimage. Some were stranded and scrambled to find their way home.
Here’s a look at the annual Hajj pilgrimage and its significance to Muslims.
The Hajj is one of the pillars of Islam
The Hajj is the annual Islamic pilgrimage to Mecca in Saudi Arabia and involves a series of religious rituals. It’s required once in a lifetime of every Muslim who can afford it and is physically able to make it. Some Muslims make the journey more than once.
It is one of the Five Pillars of Islam, in addition to the profession of faith, prayer, almsgiving and fasting.
The annual Islamic pilgrimage cycles through the seasons
The Hajj occurs once a year during the lunar month of Dhul-Hijja, the 12th and final month of the Islamic calendar year. This year, the Hajj will officially start on Monday.
When the Hajj falls during the summer months, the intense heat can be especially challenging. Amid extreme high temperatures in 2024, more than 1,300 people died during Hajj, according to Saudi authorities. The country’s health minister said at the time that the vast majority of the fatalities were unauthorized pilgrims who walked long distances under the sun.
A religious obligation and a spiritual experience
For pilgrims, performing the Hajj fulfills a religious obligation and is also a deeply spiritual experience. It’s seen as a chance to seek God’s forgiveness, to grow closer to God and to walk in the footsteps of prophets.
Communally, the Hajj unites Muslims of diverse races, ethnicities, languages and economic classes from around the world. It leaves many feeling unity, connection and humility. Pilgrims also show up with their own personal appeals, wishes and experiences.
Many pilgrims bring with them prayer requests from family and friends that they would like to be said on their behalf.
Some spend years hoping and praying to one day perform the Hajj or saving up money and waiting for a permit to embark on the trip.
Ahead of the journey, preparations may include packing various essentials for the demanding trip, seeking tips from those who’ve performed the pilgrimage before, attending lectures or consulting other educational material to prepare spiritually and physically.
Pilgrims perform a series of religious rituals
Pilgrims make the intention to perform the Hajj and they enter a state of “ihram.” Being in ihram includes abiding by certain rules and prohibitions. For instance, men are not to wear regular sewn or stitched clothes that encircle the body, such as shirts, during ihram. Instead, there are simple ihram cloth garments for men; scholars say the purpose is to discard luxuries and vanity, shed worldly status symbols and immerse the pilgrim in humility and devotion to God.
A spiritual highlight of the Hajj for many is standing on the plain of Arafat, where pilgrims praise God, plead for forgiveness and make supplications. Many raise their hands in worship with tears streaming down their faces.
Other rituals include performing “tawaf,” which involves circling the Kaaba in Mecca counterclockwise seven times. The Kaaba, a cube-shaped structure, is the focal point toward which Muslims face during their daily prayers from anywhere in the world.
Among other rituals, pilgrims retrace the path of Hagar, or Hajar, the wife of Prophet Ibrahim, known as Abraham to Jews and Christians. Muslims believe Hagar ran between two hills seven times searching for water for her son.
The Islamic holiday of Eid ul-Azha
Eid ul-Azha, or the “Feast of Sacrifice,” is the Islamic holiday that begins during the Hajj, on the 10th day of the Islamic lunar month of Dhul-Hijja.
A joyous occasion celebrated by Muslims around the world, Eid ul-Azha marks Ibrahim’s willingness to sacrifice his son as an act of submission to God. During the holiday, Muslims slaughter sheep or cattle and distribute some meat to poor people.
28 days ago
Rubio heads to NATO talks amid tensions over US troop plans and alliance differences
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is heading to Europe on Thursday on a mission to reassure nervous US allies as uncertainty grows over Washington’s NATO policy, troop levels, and shifting positions on European defence.
Rubio will attend a NATO foreign ministers’ meeting in Sweden on Friday, while senior Pentagon officials are expected to brief the 32-member alliance in Brussels on US military commitments in Europe. The meetings come ahead of a NATO leaders’ summit in Turkey in July.
The diplomatic push comes at a time of growing global uncertainty, including the ongoing Iran war and stalled efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Tensions have also risen in Europe over US President Donald Trump’s criticism of NATO allies and his interest in Greenland, a territory of NATO member Denmark.
Rubio has frequently been deployed by the Trump administration to ease concerns at international meetings, including earlier visits to the Munich Security Conference and Italy.
Confusion over US troop levels in Europe
Before leaving for Sweden, Rubio declined to clarify possible changes to US troop deployments in Europe, including under NATO’s defence planning framework.
Recent moves by the Trump administration have added to confusion. Plans to send thousands of US troops to Poland and Germany were paused or canceled, but Trump later announced on social media that 5,000 additional troops would be sent to Poland.
It remains unclear whether this means a resumption of previously halted deployments, an expansion of forces, or a broader reshaping of US troop levels across Europe. The Pentagon referred questions to the White House, which did not immediately respond.
Rubio, however, acknowledged frustration within the administration over NATO’s role, particularly in relation to the Iran conflict.
He said President Trump and other officials were “very disappointed” with the alliance.
While reaffirming that he supports NATO, Rubio questioned whether all members are contributing equally, citing disagreements over the Iran war response and access to US military facilities.
He criticised some allies, including Spain, for not allowing access to bases linked to US operations and said there had been limited European participation in efforts to secure key maritime routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.
“I know why NATO is good for Europe, but why is NATO good for America?” Rubio said, arguing that US bases abroad allow global military reach.
NATO defends planned adjustments
NATO officials have said changes in US troop levels were long planned and do not signal a sudden withdrawal. However, some allies say they were caught off guard by recent announcements.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said allies were informed a year ago that the US would gradually reduce some forces in Europe, and that European countries and Canada must take greater responsibility for the continent’s defence.
He said the US will remain committed to NATO but is expected to shift more focus to other global priorities over time.
US General Alexus Grynkewich said security in Europe would remain stable but warned allies should expect continued adjustments in US troop levels in the coming years.
The Trump administration has repeatedly said European countries must take greater responsibility for their own security, including support for Ukraine, as Washington reassesses its global military commitments.
28 days ago
US military strategy in Europe unclear as Trump orders more troops for Poland
US President Donald Trump on Thursday said the United States will send an additional 5,000 troops to Poland, deepening confusion after weeks of conflicting signals from his administration over whether it is reducing or reinforcing its military presence in Europe.
The announcement comes as the Trump administration had recently indicated it was planning to reduce troop levels in Europe by about 5,000. US officials also confirmed that around 4,000 service members were no longer being deployed to Poland, adding to uncertainty among European allies already unsettled by changing US defence plans.
In a post on Truth Social, Trump linked the decision to Poland’s recent presidential election and his relationship with new Polish President Karol Nawrocki.
“Based on the successful Election of the now President of Poland, Karol Nawrocki, who I was proud to Endorse, and our relationship with him, I am pleased to announce that the United States will be sending an additional 5,000 Troops to Poland,” Trump said.
The announcement also contrasts with earlier statements from Trump and the Pentagon, which had suggested a broader drawdown of US forces in Europe, including reductions in Germany. At one point, Trump told reporters the cuts could be “a lot further than 5,000.”
US officials had already paused or canceled several planned deployments, including a 4,000-strong Army brigade intended for Poland and a missile-trained unit bound for Germany, as part of the restructuring of US forces in Europe.
The shifting decisions have drawn criticism from lawmakers in both parties, who say the uncertainty risks sending the wrong message to allies and to Russian President Vladimir Putin amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Republican Representative Don Bacon said Polish officials told him they were “blindsided” by the changes and described the situation as “reprehensible.”
Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell said earlier this week that the pause in deployments to Poland was temporary and linked to a broader reduction in US brigade combat teams in Europe from four to three. He said final decisions on troop placement were still being worked out.
It remains unclear whether the canceled deployments will be reinstated or whether the US plans further adjustments to its force posture elsewhere in Europe. The Pentagon referred questions to the White House, which did not immediately respond.
US defence officials also expressed confusion over Trump’s latest announcement, with one saying they were still trying to understand its meaning after weeks of reacting to earlier policy changes.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, however, had earlier welcomed Washington’s signals of support, saying he was pleased with US commitments to Poland.
The announcement came as US Secretary of State Marco Rubio travelled to Sweden for NATO discussions, where allies have been pressing Washington for clarity on its Europe strategy.
Former US diplomat Ian Kelly said the lack of consistency was creating uncertainty among allies, adding that European partners were seeking stability even when they disagree with US policy shifts.
28 days ago
UN voices 'grave concern' over Taliban marriage law
The United Nations expressed “grave concern” on Thursday about a new law issued by Afghanistan’s Taliban government on separation in marriage which includes provisions on child marriage, saying the code further entrenches discrimination against women and girls.
The government rejected the accusations, saying the decree follows Islamic law and insisting the country has already banned the forced marriage of girls.
Afghanistan’s justice ministry published Decree No. 18 “on judicial separation of spouses” last week, which sets out rules for separation of a married couple.
Among its most controversial provisions, it says that the silence of a girl reaching puberty can be interpreted as consent to marriage. It also includes a section on the separation of girls who reach puberty and are married, which “implies that child marriage is permitted,” the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) said in a statement.
“This undermines the principle of free and full consent and failing to safeguard the best interests of the child,” it said.
The decree stipulates that a marriage can be ruled invalid “if a father or grandfather has given a minor girl or boy without any dowry, not enough dowry or obscene embezzlement.” It also says that a girl given away in marriage by her father or grandfather to a man who “has not treated her with kindness or is well-known for his bad choices...has the right to approach the court to cancel the marriage contract upon reaching puberty."
However, if a girl asks her husband for a divorce and he denies it, “then in this case, there are no witnesses with the girl, the husband’s word is valid,” the new law says. She does not need witnesses if she makes the request before a judge.
Women and girls already face widespread discrimination in Afghanistan, with laws dictating how they must dress and behave. They are banned from secondary school and universities and from most jobs, as well as from nearly all leisure activities, including gyms, beauty salons and even from public parks.
“Decree No. 18 is part of a broader and deeply concerning trajectory in which the rights of Afghan women and girls are being eroded,” said Georgette Gagnon, the U.N.’s Deputy Special Representative of the Secretary-General and officer in charge of UNAMA.
While the law allows for women to separate from their husbands, it makes it much harder for them to do so than it does for men.
The decree “operates in a deeply unequal framework: while men retain the unilateral right to divorce, women must pursue complex and restrictive judicial avenues to separate from a spouse,” UNAMA said. “This situation reinforces structural discrimination and limits women’s autonomy in matters fundamental to their dignity, safety, and well-being.”
After seizing power in Afghanistan following the chaotic withdrawal of U.S.-backed forces in 2021, the Taliban announced certain limited rights for women, issuing a decree that included the right for women to an inheritance and to refuse marriage. However, “successive decrees have undermined these protections,” UNAMA said.
The myriad restrictions imposed by the government “have deprived millions of Afghan women and girls of their right to education, weakened economic participation, and deepened poverty, with long-term consequences for Afghanistan’s development,” it added.
The objections from “those who contradict the religion of Islam are not new and we should not pay attention to them,” Zabihullah Mujahid, a spokesman for the Afghan government, told the RTA state broadcaster in an interview.
Mujahid noted that Afghanistan's supreme leader Hibatullah Akhundzada has already issued a previous decree that bans the forced marriage of girls. Afghan courts and the country's ministry of vice and virtue have investigated thousands of such cases in the past year alone, he said, “which shows the Islamic Emirate's concern for women's rights.”
29 days ago
Honduras gun attacks kill 25
Gunmen opened fire in two separate attacks Thursday on the Honduran coast, killing at least 25 people, including six police officers, authorities said.
The first incident took place at a plantation in the municipality of Trujillo in northern Honduras, where at least 19 workers were shot and killed, according to Public Prosecutor’s Office spokesperson Yuri Mora.
The resource-rich region has been the site of a decades-long agrarian conflict.
The Inter-American Commission on Human Rights has previously issued precautionary measures to some activists in the region who have been threatened, surveilled and intimidated for their work defending the environment and land rights.
The 2024 killing of environmental leader Juan López highlighted the dangers of defending natural resources in this highly militarized area of Honduras. The Central American nation regularly ranks as one of the most dangerous for environmentalists, with five killed in 2024 and 18 the year before, according to nongovernmental organization Global Witness.
Three people were recently arrested for masterminding López's killing, providing a rare glimpse of justice in a country with high rates of impunity.
In the second attack, assailants opened fire on police in the municipality of Omoa in the Cortes department near the Guatemalan border, killing six officers, including a senior officer, police said.
The officers were assigned to an anti-gang mission and were attacked while traveling to Omoa from the capital, Tegucigalpa, police said.
National Police spokesperson Edgardo Barahona said earlier Thursday that determining the death toll in Trujillo was complicated partly because relatives of the victims have removed bodies of their loved ones. Investigators have been sent to the scene, he said.
The National Police and armed forces will respond to both of the areas where attacks took place, and teams including forensic specialists and prosecutors will be formed to investigate, the Security Ministry said.
Honduras has struggled with high rates of crime linked to gangs and the transnational drug trade, although its homicide rate has decreased significantly in recent years since a 2011 peak of 83 murders per 100,000 residents, according to the World Bank.
International human rights organizations have criticized Honduras for its militarized approach to fighting crime, which they say has led to human rights abuses including torture, forced disappearances and extrajudicial killings.
This includes a three-year state of exception to suspend some constitutional rights and grant more power to security forces that ended in January 2026.
29 days ago
Mount Everest sees record-breaking 274 ascents in one day
Mount Everest witnessed a record number of successful ascents in a single day as 274 climbers reached the summit on Wednesday, officials said Thursday.
According to Rishi Ram Bhandari of the Expedition Operators Association Nepal, climbers took advantage of favorable weather conditions to make the ascent. The figure marks the highest number of summits achieved in one day via the popular southern route in Nepal.
Everest can be climbed from Nepal’s southern side or from the northern route in Tibet, China. On May 22, 2019, a combined 336 climbers reached the summit — 223 from Nepal’s side and 113 from Tibet. However, China has closed the northern route this year.
Veteran climber Kami Rita Sherpa earlier this week extended his own record by summiting Everest for the 32nd time. Pasang Dawa Sherpa followed closely with his 30th ascent, while Lakpa Sherpa set a new female record after reaching the summit for the 11th time.
This year’s climbing season started later than usual due to concerns over a massive hanging serac along a key section of the route. Around 494 climbers, along with a similar number of Sherpa guides, are expected to attempt the 8,850-meter (29,032-foot) peak before the climbing season concludes at the end of May.
Mount Everest was first conquered on May 29, 1953, by New Zealand mountaineer Edmund Hillary and Sherpa guide Tenzing Norgay, and since then thousands have scaled the world’s highest mountain.
29 days ago
AMEC launches GEO Principles to bring rigour to AI-led communications measurement
New global principles and practitioner guide set out a responsible way to measure how organisations are found, interpreted and represented in AI-generated answers
AMEC, the International Association for the Measurement and Evaluation of Communication, has launched the AMEC GEO Principles and a companion resource, A Practitioner’s Guide to GEO Measurement , to help communications professionals measure the growing influence of AI-led discovery, generative search and large language models.
The resources respond to a fast-changing information environment in which AI-generated summaries, conversational search and zero-click discovery are increasingly shaping how organisations, brands and issues are found, understood and trusted online.
GEO, or Generative Engine Optimisation, is increasingly used to describe how organisations appear in AI-generated answers and discovery environments. AMEC’s principles are designed to help practitioners assess this responsibly, without reducing measurement to simplistic rankings, vanity metrics or opaque scores from individual tools.
The principles were developed over more than six months through AMEC Agency Group collaboration, AMEC board review, academic scrutiny, vendor and practitioner feedback, and iterative testing. The work was led by primary contributors James Crawford of PR Agency One , Mary Elizabeth Germaine of Ketchum , Ben Levine of FleishmanHillard TRUE Global Intelligence , Matt Oakley of Hotwire Global , Amber Daugherty of Big Valley Marketing and Rob Key of Converseon , with input from AMEC’s Academic Advisory Group and wider AMEC members.
The resources were launched at the AMEC Global Summit in Dublin on 20 May, during a panel chaired by Rayna Grudova-de Lange, Founder and CEO of InsightHQ .
The AMEC GEO Principles set out a practical framework for measuring AI-led discovery across three connected areas: upstream reputation signals, including earned coverage, third-party commentary, reviews, expert content and owned assets; search and content readiness, including whether an organisation’s digital presence is credible, accessible and structured for interpretation by search engines and AI systems; and downstream AI outputs, including how an organisation appears in AI-generated answers, citations, framing, omissions and potential reputational risk.
The principles also introduce baseline evidence requirements, including repeatable prompts, documented methods, transparent assumptions and clear limitations. They reinforce that AI outputs should be treated as directional evidence rather than absolute truth, and caution against relying on any single score, platform or tool.
James Crawford, managing director of PR Agency One and AMEC Board Director, said:
“Anyone working in PR or communication will know how quickly clients and boards have started asking how GEO and LLM outputs should be measured. There is excellent innovation taking place, but there are also uneven standards, overclaiming, vanity metrics and methodologies that are not always transparent enough.
“AMEC has a responsibility to bring discipline to that conversation. These principles give the industry a more rigorous way of looking at AI-led discovery: one that recognises its importance, but also its limits. The most useful measurement will come from triangulating evidence: the reputation signals that feed the information environment, whether organisations are technically and editorially discoverable, and what AI systems then present to users.”
Johna Burke, CEO and Global Managing Director of AMEC, said:
“As AI increasingly shapes what people see, trust and act upon, the communication industry must hold itself to higher levels of transparency, evidence and accountability.
“The AMEC GEO Principles were built through global collaboration across agencies, practitioners, academics, technology leaders and AMEC’s international community because no single organisation, platform or perspective can fully define or measure AI-driven discovery alone.
“This initiative reflects the collective expertise, scrutiny and commitment of professionals across regions who understand that rigorous, transparent and ethical evaluation is essential to maintaining trust in the AI era.”
30 days ago
EU approves US tariff deal after intense internal debate to avoid trade clash
The European Union has approved a tariff agreement with the United States that sets a 15% cap on most EU exports, helping to avoid a trade confrontation with US President Donald Trump ahead of a July 4 deadline.
The decision came after heated discussions among the 27-member bloc’s leaders and lawmakers, with some warning that the deal could have been blocked in the European Parliament. The agreement governs one of the world’s largest trade relationships, covering goods and services across the Atlantic, at a time of global economic pressure linked in part to the ongoing war in Iran.
The deal was originally reached last July between European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and President Donald Trump at his Turnberry golf course in Scotland, following months of negotiations triggered by earlier US tariff moves. Since then, further talks continued between Washington and Brussels as criticism grew within Europe, including concerns after Trump suggested taking control of Greenland, a self-governing territory of Denmark. He has since stepped back from that idea.
The European Commission welcomed the approval, saying “a deal is a deal” and stressing that the EU stands by its commitments.
EU lawmakers also pushed for safeguards in the agreement in case the United States changes its position later. Bernard Lange, head of the European Parliament’s trade committee, said the bloc would respond if problems arise.
Under the agreement, tariffs on most EU exports to the US will be capped at 15%, while EU tariffs on US industrial goods will be reduced to zero. Although the arrangement raises costs compared to the previous average tariff level of 4.8%, supporters say it provides businesses with stability and predictability, helping the bloc avoid recession risks.
Officials and business groups also argue the deal is important as global economic uncertainty rises, with ongoing tensions in the Middle East affecting energy prices and inflation across regions from Europe to the United States.
The American Chamber of Commerce in Brussels welcomed the agreement, saying it allows both sides to move beyond tariffs and focus on issues such as supply chain stability.
EU trade negotiator Maroš Šefčovič said the final approval followed an intense five-hour overnight round of talks between EU institutions, calling it a step that would strengthen stability in transatlantic trade.
However, doubts remain over whether the United States can fully implement the deal. Legal challenges in US courts have questioned the authority used by Trump to impose tariffs, with some rulings saying certain measures were not properly authorized by law.
This has raised uncertainty in Europe about whether Washington will follow through on the agreement. Bernard Lange said the situation remains unclear, noting that the EU is now waiting for a firm response from the US side.
30 days ago
UN sees weaker global economy in 2026 as energy crisis deepens
Responding to Middle East crises and rising oil prices, the United Nations on Tuesday lowered its forecast for global economic growth and raised the prospects for inflation this year.
U.N. economists said global GDP growth is now forecast at 2.5% for 2026, down from 2.7% in January, and they said it could fall to only 2.1% “in a more adverse scenario.”
That would be one of the weakest growth rates this century, outside of the COVID-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis of 2008, Shantanu Mukherjee, director of economic analysis in the U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, said at a news conference.
On a somewhat positive note, he said, “we are not close” to a recession, but life can get harder for billions of people, and some countries may see their economies contract.
Global inflation is projected to rise to 3.9% this year, 0.8% higher than forecast in January, before the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran. Iran responded by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for shipments of oil, natural gas, fertilizer and other petroleum products.
“ Increased energy prices are a potent factor, as are the prices of refinery products that are crucial to industrial production and commercial transport,” Mukherjee said.
But he stressed that not all countries will experience the same rate of inflation.
In richer developed countries, inflation is projected to rise from 2.6% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026. In developing countries, inflation is forecast to accelerate from 4.2% to 5.2% as higher costs for energy, transportation and imported goods erode real incomes.
The impact of the Iran war has been highly uneven, with the most severe economic damage concentrated in West Asia, a region comprised of 21 Arab countries, including those in the Persian Gulf, according to the World Economic Situation and Prospects report for mid-2026.
Economic growth in the region is projected to plunge from 3.6% in 2025 to 1.4% in 2026, “driven not only by the energy shock but also by direct infrastructure damage and severe disruptions to oil production, trade and tourism.”
In Africa, average growth is projected to drop only slightly, from 4.2% last year to 3.9% this year, according to the report. And in Latin America and the Caribbean, it is forecast to slow from 2.5% to 2.3% in 2026.
In the United States, the economy is expected to remain “comparatively resilient” with 2% growth forecast this year, broadly similar to 2025, it said.
By contract, Europe “is more exposed, with heavy reliance on imported energy straining households and businesses,” the economists said. Economic growth in the European Union is expected to slow from 1.5% in 2025 to 1.1% in 2026, while growth in the United Kingdom is forecast to drop further, from 1.4% last year to 0.7% this year.
In Asia, the U.N. said China’s diversified energy mix, sizable strategic reserves and government actions are providing a buffer, so its economic growth is only expected to slow from 5% in 2025 to 4.6% this year.
India is forecast to remain one of the fastest growing major economics, with its economy expanding by 6.4% this year, although that is lower than its 7.5% growth in 2025.
“The question for China, similar to the case of India and other countries, is just how long with this conflict and the impact of the conflict last, because all these different buffers are clearly limited,” senior U.N. economist Ingo Pitterle told reporters.
30 days ago