The sight of crowds gathering and overrunning the security cordon at the Presidential Palace, torching the PM’s residence and generally taking over the streets have warmed many hearts as they are archetypal scenes of “people’s power” movements anywhere. Even in Bangladesh, when Ershad was overthrown in December 1990, the vice president's residence was attacked and trashed. But before it went further, political parties backed by the army reined the crowds in. In Sri Lanka the situation is much more desperate and the crowd control of the political variety is missing. The people are far more desperate and the economic conditions –the main trigger- much worse than feared.

In Bangladesh which has a long history of military takeovers, the arch villain Gen. Ershad of 1990 was an army man who was arrested and taken in. The army was also not interested in taking over. The balance of power between the civil and military forces was positive and Bangladesh went into a new phase of electoral politics with the Neutral Caretaker Government phase that lasted from 1991 to 2007. In fact the movement was against the prevailing military regime, and conducted by separate political factions coming together to achieve a common objective. In Sri Lanka the entire polity has lost credibility. The scenario is therefore different and the most significant marker is the absence of credible political options. Do they exist in Sri Lanka today ?

The Rajapaksa mess

The Rajapaksas have basically considered Sri Lanka their family business. And it was not on governance that they based their claim but defeating the Tamil insurrection. It was a military victory that made them who they are and the pride they claim is shared by the SL army as well. At this point of time, the army had not deserted them and when the Prez Rajapaksa couldn’t fly out, it was an army plane that flew him to sanctuary in the Maldives. 

But does the army want to move in?  Going by current statements, it’s not a yes.  But…

Read:Did eco-activist Vandana Shiva ruin Sri Lankan agriculture?

The last week’s events

The events have begun to peak in the last few weeks till it’s now very much out of control of the police and the armed forces have been forced to get involved.  It had been on for some time. On May 11, an army spokesperson strongly refuted any takeover by it.

“When there is a dangerous situation in the country, powers are given to the military to deal with it," Kamal Gunaratne, the secretary of Sri Lanka's defence ministry, told a press conference in response to the claims. Don't ever think that we are trying to capture power, the military has no such intentions."

“Gunaratne was a top field commander in the final battle that defeated Sri Lanka's separatist Tamil Tigers movement in 2009, ending a decades-old civil war.  His superior at the time was Gotabaya Rajapaksa, now serving as the nation's president.” ( Indian Express  May 11 )

But the situation is changing rapidly  and on July 10, NDTV reported that the Sri Lankan Army chief General Shavendra Silva had sought people's support to maintain peace as Sri Lanka battles a super crisis. General Shavendra Silva requested Sri Lankans to support the armed forces and the police as the public ransacked the Presidential palace.

Following the protests, President Rajapaksa informed Parliament Speaker Mahinda Yapa Abeywardena that he will step down on July 13, while Prime Minister Wickremesinghe said he would resign as soon as an all-party government was ready to take over. The Speaker would become the acting President after Mr Rajapaksa resigns. Later, an election among MPs will be held to elect a new President, reports said.

On 13th July the situation reached a point when civil and police forces could no longer sustain law and order.  The media reported that the Sri Lanka army took over state TV and radio stations. As the police crumbles and given the situation unable to go beyond tear gas, the army is increasingly moving in to fill the gap.

Whether this will mean a total take over or not depends a lot on how the parliament manages to establish itself. Until now they haven’t.  The parliament however also knows that the army is pro-Rajapaksa, having fought the Tamils under him, with professional links and connections.

The army hasn’t liked stepping in, whatever bit it has but circumstances have pushed it to do so. Will circumstances push the army beyond a point of its own reluctance?