Western media is lamenting the aborted “mutiny” by the Wagner Group's forces which they hoped would topple Vladimir Putin. What they were describing as the biggest challenge ever posed to Putin's grip on power, was eventually put down without a shot being fired. Putin is still in power and Wagner seems to have slipped as a potential threat to the Russian supremo. The story is a complex one, as it shows how the many forces including clandestine ones are involved in the Ukraine war on both sides.

Also read: Wagner chief breaks his silence after aborted mutiny

A chef's army?

Yevgeny Prigozhin is a colourful character who has remained in the Kremlin's orbit in some form or the other (including engagements that earned him the nickname 'Putin's chef') throughout the 23 years that Putin has ruled Russia. He has said he founded the Wagner Group PMC (private military contractor), modelled in form and function on Blackwater, an American PMC that enjoyed heavy deployments in Iraq and Afghanistan, in 2014. Working as an auxiliary force under the Russian army's command, Wagner forces marked their presence in a number of countries where Russian troops were deployed over the last decade or so, from Syria to Mali.

Also read: US, NATO had no involvement in Wagner's 'short-lived' revolt in Russia: Biden

Last Saturday (Jun. 24) though, Prigozhin seemed to flip that script, as he mobilised around 8,000 of his men to march against Moscow. Western media outlets were quick to seize upon Prigozhin's public outbursts and frustration with the military leadership aired in recent weeks to conclude he had launched 'a coup'. To be fair, he himself was calling it “a march for justice”. At best, he was hoping to capture the Russian defense ministry in Moscow. Additionally, he demanded the resignation of the defense minister, Sergei Shoigu and the chief of army staff, Valery Gerasimov.

Wagner forces were apparently being led towards Moscow by its other founder Dmitri Utkin, a decorated former soldier who probably calls the real shots in the group (Prigozhin has no military experience to speak of) but last appeared in public in 2016. It all seemed serious enough that the mayor of Moscow actually cancelled all public events in the city scheduled for the following week, as if anticipating a bloody struggle for the capital once Wagner's convoy reached the city limits. But just as abruptly as it had all erupted, the Wagner rebellion fizzled out. Just 120 miles from Moscow, the convoy stopped and turned around.

Also read: Russian defense minister makes first public appearance since mercenary revolt as uncertainty swirls

Prigozhin himself never moved from his HQ at Rostov-on-Don, a garrison town near the Ukrainian border that Wagner now controls. From there he tried calling old friend Putin, who refused to talk to him.

Prigozhin suddenly found himself without the promised support, no mass movement, his troops facing certain annihilation and his family exposed to unspeakable danger. So he sought the support of old ally Alexander Lukashenko, the president of Belarus, to plead on his behalf. It worked - at least to the extent that he was provided safe passage into the arms of Lukashenko.

With Putin hovering in the background, a deal was struck. Prigozhin for now remains in exile in Belarus. Treason charges would be dropped. The Wagner army, said to number anywhere between 20,000 to 50,000 in total, would be offered contracts to be absorbed into the Russian army, or to exit home. Many have signed up.

Six months in the making?

Prigozhin had reportedly been planning this move for months, building up the situation by accusing the Russian army of corruption, failure to support him and losing the Ukraine war itself. In response the Russian army announced, all Wagner members would have to sign contracts and submit to Russian army orders.

Prigozhin refused and claimed the Russian army was attacking him.Unconfirmed reports on social media also say he made contacts with Ukrainian military intelligence around January this year. Others say he was instigating forces within Russia as well against Putin. Wagner is itself a product of Russian military intelligence, the GRU and Wagner co-founder –Utkin- is a GRU special operator.

So Russian military politics was part of the plan and it’s quite possible that he may have been egged on by forces within the Russian security apparatus who are anti-Putin, or at least anti-Shoigu & Gerasimov.

But the fact remains that no uprising took place as some expected whether from the civil or military forces.

War, ambition and exile

While it lasted, Wagner forces took down Russian helicopters and a transport aircraft killing almost forty personnel. This made accommodation by the Russian army impossible. Prigozhin was also accused of corruption: his companies sell goods apparently at inflated prices. Those contracts were canceled a week or so before Prigozhin went full-on rogue.

But the most serious accusation made by his foes is not just about the deals with Ukraine’s secret intelligence services, but the United States too. As these can’t be confirmed, they mean that whether true or not, Wagner can’t operate independently.

What didn’t happen in Russia was a general uprising and an open fracturing of the security apparatus. But it's obvious that the Russian military is rife with clandestine deals, conspiracies and lack of a common cause and leadership.

'Protest, not mutiny'

Speaking before leaving for his exile in Belarus, Prigozhin said his actions were a protest against the order to be placed under the Russian military and not an uprising. He also regretted shooting down the planes that caused so many deaths.

Putin meanwhile, thanked his armed forces for not just preventing an uprising but a civil war as well, even though they seemed to be enjoying a weekend off. As ever, nothing is certain and everything remains as mysterious as before in this “war of secrets.”