Twenty years after the Taliban were expelled from power they are back and the US has left in an ignominious departure. It could have been done better in many ways but the signs mean that the Western cluster had reached its limits in Afghanistan. President Joe Biden is getting all the flack but it’s Trump who signed the deal. The point is, no matter how inept Biden and how unstable Trump may be seen, it’s the USA which has weakened in the last 20 years and the Taliban hasn’t become stronger. And China and Russia are stronger in the region.
In Bangladesh, many are jumping up and down in support of the Taliban and others gloating over the US defeat. One is not sure if it translates into political activism. The old guard Islamists and those who believe the Taliban is a global Islamists threat which includes Western allied experts are not saying anything much different from before. However, for South Asia , the change of dress in Kabul has multiple implications, both internally and regionally. While in Bangladesh it’s much more about domestic Islamist militancy, the impact on India and Pakistan will be more.
Managing militants
Bangladesh has the least of problems of the three and its counter—terrorism structure has proved effective. The last time around, several outfits grew around the Taliban model and they caused problems. However, there was a certain quarter within the government who did play a role in promoting them. Later, they were taken down and the training camps- nothing significant- were dismantled. Al-Qaeda gets a lot of publicity courtesy Bangladesh media but the kind of state threat that the Talibans held over Kabul is not possible as all anti-state movements need to be indigenous. Foreign activists can’t change state power. None are active now except on social media.
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However, what Bangladesh will probably do as it has shown after the Holey Artisan café incident is to really clamp down. It has extensive fire and surveillance power so local militancies are more irritations than threats to the state. It's possible that some will get excited and join but sadly for them, the current state is in no mood to be patient. It’s possible, we shall see encounters and deaths. However, the kind of support and sanctuary that Kabul once gave is not going to be available.
This current Taliban is hardly in a position to act independently given its backers. If it rebels , a joint Sino-Russo military campaign against the Taliban will again dispel them from power. So the Taliban will behave because it has no choice, After 20 years in semi-wilderness, they won’t risk another loss of power.
The Indo-Pak situation is very different and for them it’s not Afghanistan but the games the two play over their borders. While India has to worry over Kashmir mostly, Pakistan will have to think about its internal scenario with many Talibans inside. The Russians are largely concerned about keeping its Central Asian dependencies free of Islamists but China has bigger ambitions with its stake in Pakistan and India too. So the game will have many angles including the future of Sino-Russo relations and its impact on South Asia.
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Mercifully, Bangladesh has no such concerns.