Bangladesh’s economy
Bangladesh’s overdependence on remittance: How secure is the future?
Bangladesh’s economy continues to lean heavily on the flow of remittances from migrant workers, a key driver for foreign reserves, debt repayments and import payments.
In the past six months, the country has enjoyed a strong remittance windfall. Yet economists and migration experts remain uncertain about the long-term sustainability of this reliance.
According to Bangladesh Bank, over USD 30 billion in remittances were sent to the country during the 2023–24 fiscal year, averaging USD 2.5 billion per month.
In March alone, Bangladesh recorded a historic peak of USD 3 billion, marking the highest monthly inflow of remittances in its history. These figures show steady progress when compared to previous years.
Despite this growing dependence, experts caution that the economic support from this sector may not remain as secure in the future, especially considering changing global conditions.
Data from the Bureau of Manpower, Employment and Training (BMET) shows that nearly 15 million Bangladeshis live abroad, of whom approximately 6 to 6.5 million regularly send remittances home.
A significant portion of this remittance flow originates from Middle Eastern nations, where about 34 percent of Bangladeshi migrants are based, mostly working as manual labourers across various sectors.
An analysis of the Bangladesh Bank’s latest remittance report indicates that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Oman, Kuwait and Qatar are the top contributors.
Over 70 percent of the workers who left Bangladesh in the first five months of this year headed for Saudi Arabia alone.
Labour migration to other countries has, however, declined.
The UAE, Bangladesh’s second-largest remittance contributor in the Middle East, has halted the intake of Bangladeshi workers, while Oman’s labour market remains closed.
Bangladesh received $2.7 billion remittances in 29 days of June
Among Asian nations, Malaysia was a major destination, but since last year, the outflow of workers to the country has been completely suspended. Italy, a prime destination for Bangladeshi workers in Europe, is also becoming increasingly difficult to access through legal channels. Many have returned home after failing to secure work abroad, particularly in European countries.
A recent study conducted by the Economic Study Centre of Dhaka University titled ‘The Economic Significance of Remittance in Bangladesh’ sheds light on the actual sources of remittance inflow. It states that the lion’s share comes from blue-collar worker who are employed in low-income and physically demanding jobs.
While their hard-earned money fuels the nation’s economy, their own lives abroad often remain marred by hardship. The once-promising route to upward mobility is becoming increasingly difficult.
BMET data shows that while about 1.3 million people left the country in search of work in 2023, the number dropped to 1 million in 2024. Many of those who went abroad in 2023 have already returned empty-handed. The agency has no precise records on how many labourers return to the country each year using ‘outpasses’.
The Wage Earners’ Welfare Board reports that over 80,000 workers returned home on outpasses in 2024, compared to just over 50,000 a decade ago.
Many of these workers had sold family assets or taken out loans to finance their overseas employment. But failing to secure the promised work, they were forced to return—some even re-entering the country as undocumented migrants after losing legal status abroad.
Those struggling to survive in foreign lands often suffer from severe mental distress.
According to a 2024 survey by the Refugee and Migratory Movements Research Unit (RMMRU), the average life expectancy of Bangladeshi migrant workers is just 37 years, compared to over 70 years in the general population.
Backed by IMF, remittances, Bangladesh’s Forex reserves hit $27.3 billion
A vast majority of migrants do not receive the work they were promised. To survive, many are compelled to perform hazardous tasks for low pay.
Among Bangladeshi migrant workers, 31 percent die of unnatural causes, 16 percent from various accidents, and only 28 percent pass away naturally. Most alarmingly, 15 percent resort to suicide due to unbearable life conditions abroad.
“Overseas workers are treated as nothing more than money machines,” said Marina Sultana, Director of RMMRU and a noted migration researcher.
“They are sending money that boosts reserves, but policymakers consistently neglect their futures. While other countries stand up for the rights of their migrant workers, Bangladesh lags far behind. This is discouraging people from going abroad, straining domestic employment and increasing unemployment, which ultimately impacts the economy,” she said.
Around 3,000 recruiting agencies are authorised to send workers abroad. However, these agencies have long faced allegations of malpractice and corruption.
While a few have faced punishment, meaningful reform remains absent. Protected by political connections and supported by groups within relevant ministries, many of these agencies have formed powerful syndicates.
A High Court report submitted by the Ministry of Expatriates' Welfare and Overseas Employment in April this year revealed damning information. It stated that 17,777 workers were unable to go to Malaysia due to agency failures.
Besides, these agencies charged aspiring migrants exorbitantly, well beyond the government-fixed fee of Tk 78,990.
A separate report by the Anti-Corruption Commission in May confirmed that some agencies had charged up to Tk 500,000 per person for Malaysian jobs. Between 2021 and 2024, 13 agencies were found to have embezzled over Tk 1,000 crore from aspiring workers.
Linking recruitment ethics with remittance sustainability, Marina Sultana said, “Until ethical recruitment is ensured, remittances cannot be regarded as a stable and robust economic pillar. These agencies must be held accountable for repeated failures and malpractice, or else the country risks a sudden collapse in remittance inflow.”
She also raised concerns over the failure to train and send skilled workers abroad.
“Countries like Nepal and Sri Lanka are exporting skilled labour. Despite having numerous training centres, Bangladesh still largely exports unskilled workers. Countries such as Hong Kong and Singapore could be promising markets for female workers. Yet the cycle of relying on low-skilled migrants in the Middle East continues. Though remittance numbers are good for now, the future remains uncertain,” Marina said.
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Migration experts say the demand is shifting globally, particularly in the Middle East, towards skilled workers. Even in Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh’s biggest remittance contributor, new standards are being set ahead of the 2034 FIFA World Cup, with skills and qualifications becoming mandatory.
With the global tide changing, it may be time for Bangladesh to move beyond celebrating record-high remittances and instead focus on securing the well-being and rights of the people who make those numbers possible.
4 months ago
Iran-Israel conflict heightens oil price uncertainty, poses threat to Bangladesh’s economy
The escalating Iran-Israel conflict is heightening economic uncertainty for Bangladesh, prompting economists and analysts to urge immediate preparedness for its potential impacts.
“A sustained escalation in the Middle East could trigger a cascade of challenges, primarily driven by surging global oil prices, disrupted trade routes, and potential impacts on remittance inflows, threatening Bangladesh's economic stability and growth trajectory,” said Dr Selim Raihan, Professor of Economics at the University of Dhaka and Executive Director of the South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (SANEM).
Talking to UNB, Dr Raihan said Bangladesh, as an increasingly export-oriented economy, is heavily reliant on smooth international trade and stable energy prices.
The Ready-Made Garment (RMG) sector, which accounts for over 83 percent of the country's total export earnings, is highly vulnerable to global economic disruptions. Secure trade routes and stability in the US and European markets are essential for sustaining RMG exports, he said.
Dr Raihan also pointed out that Bangladesh’s energy security is deeply linked to imports, particularly those passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global shipping corridor that handles about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply. Any disruption in shipments through this route could severely affect the country's economy.
Meanwhile, Dr Muhammad Fouzul Kabir Khan, energy adviser to the interim government, said the oil supply chain is likely to remain stable, but uncertainty surrounds the supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
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Global oil prices have already surged in response to rising tensions, with Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) both recording sharp increases. Experts warn that a prolonged conflict, especially one that disrupts the Strait of Hormuz, could drive oil prices up to US$90–$120 per barrel.
For a country like Bangladesh, which is heavily dependent on imported fuel, such a scenario could lead to a skyrocketing import bill.
“Countries like Bangladesh, which rely heavily on oil imports, will be among the hardest hit,” said Dr Mustafizur Rahman, a distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).
He warned that a spike in oil prices would act as a “barometer of commodity prices in the global market,” triggering inflation across various domestic sectors and placing immense pressure on household budgets.
In addition to energy concerns, the escalating tensions also threaten global trade and supply chains. Ongoing Houthi militant attacks in the Red Sea have already disrupted major shipping routes to Europe, pushing global logistics costs up by over 20 percent.
A prolonged conflict would likely worsen these disruptions, raising the cost of importing essential raw materials and finished goods, while also increasing shipping costs for Bangladesh’s exports. This would erode the competitiveness of the RMG sector, which depends on timely and cost-effective logistics.
Airspace closures across the Middle East have further complicated international aviation routes, raising operational costs for both cargo and passenger movement.
Mahmud Hasan Khan Babu, President of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), told UNB that the garment industry has kept its production running even during energy shortages.
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Another blow in the form of price hikes or supply disruptions could be devastating, especially after the challenges faced during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Remittances, a crucial pillar of Bangladesh’s economy and a key source of foreign exchange, also face potential, albeit indirect, risks.
Although recent figures show strong remittance inflows supporting the recovery of foreign exchange reserves, prolonged instability in the Middle East could affect the employment and earnings of millions of Bangladeshi expatriate workers in the region.
Should security conditions deteriorate in host countries, future remittance inflows may decline, placing further pressure on the country’s foreign currency reserves, which are already strained by rising import payments.
According to Bangladesh Bank, gross foreign exchange reserves have recently recovered to over US$25 billion.
These reserves remain vulnerable to external shocks. A sustained rise in import costs, due to higher oil prices and increased shipping expenses, could rapidly deplete reserves, making it difficult to finance essential imports and maintain macroeconomic stability.
Economists urged the government to stay vigilant and proactive by developing contingency strategies.
These include diversifying energy sources, exploring alternative trade routes, and providing targeted support to the RMG sector to cushion the blow of global instability.
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The ripple effects of a prolonged Iran-Israel conflict could severely dampen Bangladesh’s economic outlook, potentially slowing GDP growth and heightening inflationary pressure on its population, they said.
5 months ago
Unlocking China’s market: Strategies for Bangladesh to enhance exports
Bangladesh faces significant hurdles in benefitting from duty-free market access to China, the world’s second-largest economy, due to various systemic and strategic issues. Business leaders emphasize the necessity of signing a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with China to boost Bangladeshi exports.
A recent study by the Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID) revealed that Bangladesh could potentially earn an additional $27 billion by exporting quality and diversified goods to China, provided its market share increases to 1 percent. However, the report also identifies several critical barriers preventing this growth.
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One primary obstacle is Bangladesh’s heavy reliance on the ready-made garment (RMG) sector. Although China imports $10 billion worth of garment items, Bangladesh’s inability to meet high-quality standards limit its export success.
“China is the top garment exporter to the USA, EU, and UK, while Bangladesh’s exports rely 84 percent on garments,” noted Dr. MA Razzaque, Chairman of RAPID.
Dr. Razzaque highlighted that China prefers high-quality garments from Italy and other European countries, importing around $10 billion of such products. To penetrate the Chinese market, Bangladesh must diversify its exports and improve product quality. He emphasized the need for aggressive policies, including attracting China-oriented investments and signing trade agreements.
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Other significant barriers are:
- Lack of integration with Chinese retailers.
- Insufficient participation in marketing, sales, and after-sale services.
- Cultural and language barriers.
- Stringent Chinese labeling and packaging regulations.
Dr. Razzaque also pointed out the price competitiveness issue, noting that Chinese products often have lower prices than similar quality Bangladeshi products. The burgeoning e-commerce sector in China represents another challenge, as Bangladeshi entrepreneurs need better skills to tap into this market effectively.
Dr. Razzaque suggests that encouraging Chinese investors to set up manufacturing hubs in Bangladesh could be a strategic move. These factories could produce goods for export back to China and other countries, thus boosting Bangladesh’s export volumes.
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Al-Mamun Mridha, General Secretary of the Bangladesh China Chamber of Commerce and Industry (BCCCI), echoed these sentiments. He mentioned that some Chinese investors are considering shifting their manufacturing industries to Bangladesh, recognizing it as a significant market for Chinese products.
To attract more Chinese investment, Bangladesh is organizing a trade and investment summit in Beijing during Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s state visit from July 8 to 10. Mridha hopes that establishing Chinese factories in Bangladesh will eventually increase the volume of Bangladeshi exports to China.
Currently, Bangladesh imports around $24 billion annually from China, while its exports to China remain below $1 billion. To address this trade imbalance, Bangladesh plans to offer lucrative incentives to Chinese investors in sectors such as ceramics, leather, pharmaceuticals, electric cars, high-end garments, and household appliances.
Enhancing Bangladesh’s access to the Chinese market requires strategic diversification, quality improvements, and strong bilateral trade agreements. The upcoming summit and potential Chinese investments could pave the way for increased exports, ultimately benefiting Bangladesh’s economy.
1 year ago
Bangladesh’s estimated growth higher than forecast for FY 2023: ADB
The higher estimate of 6% for FY 2023 (ending on June 30, 2023) reflects strong net exports as imports fell more sharply than expected and export growth slowed less than expected, says the Asian Development Bank (ADB).
On the supply side, manufacturing firms of all sizes leveraged supportive government policies to contribute to growth. Crop losses to floods, cyclones, and droughts were partly offset by subsidies, incentives, and other measures.
The service sector was buoyed by higher warehouse and support activities and health and social services.
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On the demand side, growth in public consumption outpaced expectations, as did public investment.
The ADO April 2023 forecast for growth in FY 2024 is unchanged at 6.5%.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is maintaining its growth outlook for developing economies in Asia and the Pacific at 4.8% this year, as robust domestic demand continues to support the region’s recovery.
Inflation is expected to continue falling, approaching pre-pandemic levels as fuel and food prices decline, according to the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) July 2023, released on Wednesday (July 19, 2023).
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Inflation in developing Asia is forecasted at 3.6% this year, compared with an April forecast of 4.2%.
The inflation outlook for 2024, meanwhile, is raised to 3.4% from an earlier estimate of 3.3%.
The reopening of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is bolstering the region’s growth.
The PRC’s economy is projected to expand 5.0% this year, unchanged from the April forecast, amid strong domestic demand in the services sector. However, demand for developing Asia’s exports of electronics and other manufactured goods is slowing, as monetary tightening drags on economic activity in major advanced economies. The region’s growth forecast for next year is marginally revised down to 4.7% from a 4.8% estimate in April.
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“Asia and the Pacific continues to recover from the pandemic at a steady pace,” said ADB Chief Economist Albert Park. “Domestic demand and services activity are driving growth, while many economies are also benefiting from a strong recovery in tourism. However, industrial activity and exports remain weak, and the outlook for global growth and demand next year has worsened.”
2 years ago
Economy offers reasons for optimism, even as chronic problems persist
Economists are hopeful that Bangladesh’s economy will regain the growth momentum while reducing inflation and stabilising the exchange rate in the New Year.
Despite higher inflation and fluctuating currency exchange rate, record defaulted loans, they are optimistic about the overall growth of the domestic economy, which is predicted by the IMF and World Bank to be over 6 percent still in FY23.
Major challenges including capital flight ahead of the national election, persistent loan default culture, and lack of good governance in the banking sector will however remain.
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Former adviser on finance and planning to a caretaker government Dr ABM Mirza Azizul Islam told UNB that Bangladesh’s economy remains in a good position compared to many other Asian countries - including Indonesia and Singapore.
The trade deficit is widening due to the sharp rise in import demand, which should be tackled by discouraging unnecessary imports and increasing domestic agriculture production. Huge import payments have eaten away at the foreign exchange reserve, he said.
Mirza Aziz said the pace of reducing the poverty rate (proportion of population under the poverty line) has slowed down. Inflation over 8 percent is pinching people’s pockets, as it creates an imbalance in the earnings and expenditure of marginal people.
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He also suggested cutting additional facilities for loan defaulters as it is not good for the economy and the loan default culture could be reduced if the defaulters face legal action.
Former governor of Bangladesh Bank Dr Atiur Rahman said the economy in the New Year will face both opportunities and challenges, depending mostly on developments in the global economy.
“If the war in Ukraine comes to an end the global supply chains will improve and the shipping and fuel costs will come down. This will have some positive impact in terms of reducing the level of imported inflation with a huge impact on our overall inflation as well,” he said.
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“However, we also need to do more on our domestic fronts to reduce this inflation,” Dr Atiur added. Inflation is certainly the biggest problem for middle and low-income people.
On the other hand, if the Fed (US Federal Reserve, America’s central bank) stops tightening its monetary policy, it would have some positive impact on the Taka-Dollar exchange rate. On the whole, the geopolitical tensions will continue to determine the pace of Bangladesh’s economic growth and the level of inflation.
“Yet, we must continue to support agriculture, remittances, and export sectors to contribute positively from within towards better gains of our economic growth. The monetary policy should continue to move towards market-determined conditions to help stabilise inflation from the demand side,” the former governor of Bangladesh Bank said.
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On the whole, the challenges will remain, but the economy of Bangladesh may stabilise with a robust foundation if the global situation turns favourable and austerity measures remain in place.
2 years ago
Economy has unease, but no crisis: Shamsul Alam
State minister for planning Shamsul Alam on Sunday said Bangladesh’s economy has discomfort, but there is no crisis yet.
Denying a section of economists' assumptions, he said the economy is on the right track; growth, production, and supply lines are working positively, while the government is trying to ease inflation by policy measures.
Alam said this at a discussion meeting on ‘New challenges in the economy of Bangladesh’ organized by the Economic Reporters’ Forum (ERF) at its auditorium in the capital on Sunday.
Chief Economist, Bangladesh Bank Md Habibur Rahman, Ahsan H. Mansur, Executive Director, Policy Research Institute (PRI), Mohammad Hatem, Executive President of BKMEA, Barrister Nihad Kabir, , Chairperson, Business Initiative Leading Development (BUILD), Abul Kashem Khan, director FBCCI, among other spoke at the event.
Also read: No reason to worry; Bangladesh's economy on right track: Shamsul Alam
ERF president Sharmeen Rinvy presided the discussion meeting while its secretary general, SM Rashidul Islam, moderated the program.
The state minister also said some Bangladeshi economists were wrong in predicting that over 5 lakh people may die from Covid-19 pandemic unless a full lockdown was imposed across the country.
Despite this warning, the prime minister decided to keep open the factories, resulting in Bangladesh standing in the1st position in South Asia and 15th in the world in economic growth. If the government implemented a full lockdown in the factories, the economy of the country would have been in trouble, he said.
Import is declining, remittance, export and industrial growth are expanding in the country, defying the warning of a disaster of these sectors by the domestic economists, Dr Alam said.
The state minister said around 10 lakh workers went to different countries till June 2022. Ane despite huge imports, forex reserves still remained over USD $ 41 billion, so there is nothing to be worried about the economy.
BB chief economist Habibur said Bangladesh macroeconomics situation is under a little stress due to external effects, which are becoming stable by policy measures of the central bank.
The central bank will not increase the interest rate rather policy rate increases to make money management smooth, he said.
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Meanwhile, the BB announced around Tk 1.0 lakh crore special loan packages for CMSMEs, SMEs, Agriculture and other specialized sectors to increase money flow in the market, said Dr Habibur.
He also assumed that exchange rate will back in stable position and then inflation rate will also become tolerable as it created for external effect, he said.
Ahsan Mansur said that another blow from the global recession will hit the domestic economy besides Russia-Ukraine war.
He suggested massive reform of the tax system including tax policies and strengthen domestic gas-coal extraction to make vibrant the domestic economy from the external effect.
Mohammad Hatem said huge tax burden is a barrier to growing business here it is not cooperative al all for Bangladesh entrepreneurs to compete with the global market.
If business grows, the revenue generation would grow, so government policy should aim to help business grow more. 0therwise pushing higher tax will hurt business, he pointed out.
He emphasized on uninterrupted energy supply in the knitwear sector for smooth production of export goods. If it does not happen, the fabrics import demand will increase which is not good for the economy.
Nihad Kabir said the government should act as facilitator, not regulator everywhere.
In case of raw materials for the pharmaceutical sector, an importer has to collect around 73 types of documents from Union Parishad to relevant ministries which are waste of time, she said.
For lack of automation a business requires around 35 types of documents to start and that is not business friendly at all. To create entrepreneurs, the government should reform policy, withdraw trade license requirements, make the easy business process to create young entrepreneurs, Nihad suggested.
3 years ago
Plans afoot to transform Bangladesh’s economy in view of LDC graduation
The government has taken structural transformation of the economy as a priority agenda for the coming days to maintain its position among the developing countries and become a higher middle-income country by 2031 defying all the hurdles of the post-LDC era.
"We, therefore, need to accelerate this structural transformation of the economy," the government said in an official budget document.
To this end, the government will provide necessary financial assistance for the implementation of some activities.
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These are-- mechanisation of agriculture, development of the agro- processing sector, skill development and productivity enhancement, and expansion of training and education related to 4th Industrial Revolution.
The government will also provide necessary financial assistance for encouragement of online based outsourcing work, self- employment/creation of new entrepreneurs, and encouragement of basic and practical research at the university level.
It said that the country has been gradually moving from an agro-based economy to a manufacturing-based economy following the pursuit of effective government policies and strategies during the last 12 years.
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Therefore, the document said, the contribution of agriculture to the GDP has been gradually declining and the desired structural transformation is taking place in the economy.
It mentioned that Bangladesh has already qualified for graduation from a least developed country to a developing country.
"To maintain its position among the developing countries and become a higher middle income country by 2031, we need a strong industrial and manufacturing sector, which will help sustain high economic growth."
Also read: WB projects 1.6 pc GDP growth for Bangladesh in 2020-21
According to the United Nations Committee for Development Policy (UNCDP) recommendation, Bangladesh's transition will be effective in 2026. It means until 2026, Bangladesh will be able to enjoy all the benefits applicable to LDCs.
4 years ago
Bangladesh emerging as top influential regional state: David Brewster
Dr David Brewster, a senior research fellow at the National Security College in Australia, has depicted Bangladesh’s economic growth and described how the country is becoming an increasingly influential regional state.
He mentioned that Dhaka is increasingly confident in an emerging role and the rest of the world would benefit from paying close attention.
In his recent article titled “A rising Bangladesh starts to exert its regional power” Brewster said the recent announcement that Bangladesh would provide US$200 million in aid to Sri Lanka is an important turning point as that country moves from being an impoverished supplicant towards an increasingly influential regional state.
He thinks it is an outcome of years of high economic growth and points to Dhaka’s potential to become an important Indo-Pacific middle player.
When it gained independence from Pakistan in 1971, Brewster said, Bangladesh was one of the poorest countries in the world with few apparent prospects – former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger apocryphally called it a “basket case”.
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Today, he said, it is a confident country of 160 million people with a booming, export-oriented economy, which has grown at an annual average of about 6% for two decades.
The economic growth slowed to 5.2% in 2020 due to Covid, and is forecast by the ADB to bounce back to 6.8% in 2021 and 7.2% in 2022. GDP per capita now stands at $2,227, higher than India’s ($1,947) and much higher than its former masters, Pakistan ($1,543).
Dhaka’s recent aid to neighbouring Sri Lanka was a first in Bangladesh extending financial assistance to any other country.
“Just as importantly, Bangladesh scores well against India and other South Asian countries in many social indicators, including health, life expectancy, birth rates and employment of women,” Brewster wrote in his article that appeared on The Interpreter that features daily commentary and analysis on international issues.
He said the sustainability of Bangladesh’s growth story is not without its sceptics who question official growth figures or point to its heavy reliance on garment exports, which could make it financially vulnerable.
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Since 2008, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has presided over a relatively stable civilian administration, Brewster wrote, mentioning that she is publicly popular.
He said Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne is now known to be keen on building ties, and there are signs that the two sides want to move the relationship beyond aid.
An agreement to facilitate trade and investment has been finalised and is close to signing, which could help open opportunities for Australian agriculture, resource and energy exports to a booming Bangladesh, the article reads.
“Australia could do well in moving beyond traditional regional partners. Greater focus needs to be given to building ties with emerging middle powers such as Bangladesh to complement relationships with the big powers,” Brewster wrote.
The article is part of a two-year project being undertaken by the ANU National Security College on the Indian Ocean, with the support of the Australian Department of Defence.
4 years ago
Japanese development model best for Bangladesh to emulate: Speakers
Speakers at a JICA seminar opined that the Japanese model of development might be the best pathway for Bangladesh in achieving economic goals and turning itself into a developed country.
4 years ago
PM for diversifying export items through research
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on Thursday urged researchers to conduct studies to diversify Bangladesh’s export products alongside modernising and mechanising the agriculture sector.
4 years ago