Debapriya Bhattacharya
Safeguards are needed to protect vulnerable people under IMF-backed reforms: Debapriya
Debapriya Bhattacharya, public policy analyst and distinguished fellow of Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), said on Monday that when the IMF takes a reform programme for a country, sometimes inequality increases, because of the conditions they attach.
So, safeguards are needed when the IMF is involved in any major reform agenda, said the prominent economist.
He made the statement in a dialogue of the CPD-Citizen Platform titled 'How the concern of disadvantaged people can be reflected in the upcoming national budget during the IMF reform period’, held at Bangabandhu International Conference Centre (BICC) in the capital on Monday.
Presenting a keynote paper on the topic Debapriya said, when the IMF programme is taking place in a country, it tries to impose an authority on the economy of that country. Similarly, in Bangladesh the global lender imposed conditions of cutting subsidies on energy, electricity, advocated for market-based foreign exchange and interest rates, which could trigger sufferings of the disadvantaged groups.
In addition, the IMF has spoken of additional tax-revenue collection. Debapriya said.
He said there is no room to disagree with this, but from whom the tax will be collected, that is a big question.
He also complained that there is no standard system of tax collection in the country so far.
Planning minister MA Mannan was present in the function as the chief guest while Rana Mohammad Sohail MP, member of parliamentary standing committee on finance ministry and barrister Rumeen Farhana, an ex-MP of the current parliament from BNP, were present as the special guests.
Advocate Sultana Kamal chaired the discussion while former NBR Chairman Dr Muhammad Abdu Mazid, economist professor Mustafizur Rahman, CPD’s executive director Dr Fahmida Khatun, among others, spoke in the function.
Representatives of different disadvantaged groups including old aged, youth leaders, students, physically challenged people, farmers, tribal groups, fishermen, women and cleaners’ community were present.
Planning minister MA Mannan said despite efforts made by members of the parliament, the government's allocation often fails to reach the country's underprivileged people.
The minister emphasised on how the underprivileged were deprived in different sectors. But Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina understands the sufferings of the disadvantaged groups and she is trying to allocate more in the budget to save them, he said.
"Bangladesh is not dependent on the International Monetary Fund [IMF]. The budget is entirely the government's own plan. The IMF is merely a side-actor," he said.
The minister also highlighted inflation as the biggest challenge at the moment, though he noted that it had slightly decreased last month.
Debapriya said, according to the data of the Bureau of Statistics, poverty has decreased but inequality has increased. The disparity has also increased, alongside consumption inequality, he said.
He, however, noted that data on wealth inequality was not available. He also expressed doubts about how much reform could be done depending on indirect taxes.
Debapriya recommended the government should maintain a balance between sectors in terms of reforms and sectoral disparity.
He also emphasised on the need to raise direct taxes to minimise the tax burden on the lower income group of people.
1 year ago
Economic mismanagement creating instability in market: Debapriya
Noted economist Dr. Debapriya Bhattacharya said that the recent abnormal hike in fuel prices and then cutting it by only Tk. 5/litre is a classic example of economic mismanagement.
He said that the sudden increase of fuel price by Tk 44/litre at midnight, and then reduce it by Tk5/litre, is a fraud. Such decisions are being made due to lack of expertise, he added.
Debapriya, distinguished fellow of think tank Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) was speaking at the 'ERF Dialogue' organized by Economic Reporters Forum (ERF) on Tuesday.
He said Bangladesh's main problem is not in the foreign transactions, rather it is the weakness of the domestic financial sector.
He said the global recession may extend up to 2024, and its adverse impact can be reduced by strengthening the domestic economy.
He also identified four deviations in the domestic economy, which may create a turmoil in Bangladesh.
Read: Economy needs transitional policy to overcome the crisis: Debapriya
These deviations are: not getting adequate investment in the private sector, weakness in revenue generation, lack of necessary investment in education and health sectors, and discrimination in the social safety net programmes.
He said the growth is now being propelled by public investment as the private investment ratio to GDP has not increased over the years and still hovering around 23 to 24 per cent of GDP. On the other hand, the ratio of public investment to GDP has been increased to 7 to 8 per cent from 5 to 6 per cent.
“There has been no such foreign direct investment as the FDI is still below the one per cent of GDP which is not enough for a dynamic economy,” he said.
Referring to the attaining of GDP growth at 5 to 7 per cent on average over the last 10 years, the eminent economist said this suggests that the income is growing. “Then why the desired revenues are not being collected…is there any mismatch in the calculation?’
He opined that due to the comparatively lower level of revenue collection, the government has not been able to import food grains, side by side it has also not been possible to increase the coverage of the food assistance.
“The government is being unable to reduce the duty and tariff for which it has rely heavily on the indirect tax to collect revenues which has put the commoners under pressure,” he added.
Debapriya alleged that that the health and education sectors are not enjoying the desired level of investment although hefty investments are being made in the physical infrastructure sector.
He said the 20 mega projects are enjoying around 2 per cent investment of GDP whereas the investment in the health and education sectors is one percent each of GDP.
He noted that the political force has been trying to make visible physical infrastructural development in a speedy manner in a bid to fulfill the political deficit.
He alleged that there has been large-scale discrimination in the distribution of social safety net allowances during the COVID-19 pandemic as it was then proved that access to government services was not easy for the weak people.
Citing that competitive business environment is not being created in the country, he said that certain individuals or quarters are getting preferences from the policy makers for which there has been inadequate flourish of talent-based and international standard human resource development.
ERF président Sharmeen Rinvy presided over the programme, moderated by ERF general secretary SM Rashidul Islam.
2 years ago
High value public debt spent on nonproductive sector causes imbalance in economy: CPD
Though Bangladesh remains in a suitable position on public debt, it may be pushed to yellow rate after FY 25 as spending of high value foreign debt increases at the nonproductive sector, a CPD study says.
Both public and private sector debt from external sources have increased in recent past , which would create stress on forex reserves and widen the imbalance of trade, according to the study.
The Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), a think tank, presented the study in a programme titled ‘Deconstructing Public Debt of Bangladesh: Trends, Status and Outlook’ organized virtually on Monday.
Debapriya Bhattacharya, distinguished fellow of the CPD, presenting the overall scenario of Bangladesh’s debt said total national debt is increasing at a faster rate than Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Also read: Sovereign debt set to edge upwards in coming years
He said the macro economy of the country will face pressure if the government does not take cautionary measures from now to spend debt money in the nonproductive sector.
If the current tendency of national debt continues, the economy will witness weakening of external balance, deteriorating current account and balance of payment, fall in external financial flows including export revenue, remittance income, FDI, income on assets overseas, he said.
As a result, the situation may arise as debt default, fall in economic growth, high inflation, foreign exchange reserve depletion, exchange rate depreciation, loss of economic competitiveness and lowering of credit rating, Debapriya observed.
Replying to a query he said, if the GDP ratio of Bangladesh is not matching with other indicators of economy and different economic indicators are interrelated, while one of it is rising, the changes also affect others indicators.
He urged the government to continue the quarterly budget review and debt situation review so that parliamentary standing committee members can discuss the matter for national interest.
Also read: Bangladesh’s foreign debt far below risk limit: Economic review tells PM
Bebapriya also urged the government entities to be more friendly and transparent in releasing economic data and easy access to it for the researchers.
Bangladesh’s total public debt (as % of GDP), 34.7 percent, was among the lowest in South Asia in FY20, with Sri Lanka (112.2%) and Bhutan (120.7%), being the highest, source: IMF.
The total outstanding debt amount in FY21 in Bangladesh was $131.14 billion, it increased by $16.45 billion on average for the past 3 years, which was about 2.5 percent of GDP.
In FY21 only, total public debt increased more than $18.64 billion (additional 2.2 percent of GDP) of which more than 54 percent was domestic debt.
The total debt as percentage of GDP decreased in Bangladesh between FY08 (38.8%) and FY17 (28.2%). It has since increased between FY18 (29.5%) and FY21 (36.9%). The linear decadal growth rates were 44.1% (FY02 to FY11) 66.6% (FY12 to FY21).
Per capita outstanding debt – $432 (FY21), the annual increase of outstanding debt (FY20 to FY21) – $9.62 billion and annual increase in DSL – (FY20 to FY21) – $ 0.7 billion.
Total outstanding external private debt amount in Bangladesh was $18.69 billion in FY21, the share of external private debt in total debt increased between FY03 (3.9%) and 2021 (14.5%)
2 years ago