high inflation
Curbing inflation, financial sector stability to get top attention: Dr. Mansur on becoming BB governor
Dr. Ahsan H. Mansur, newly appointed governor of Bangladesh Bank, has said his priority will be to check the high inflation and restore stability in the financial sector.
Expressing satisfaction over his new responsibility Dr. Mansur told UNB on Tuesday night that he will work with all stakeholders in the financial sector to bring back stability and put it on a solid foundation.
On Tuesday night the interim government's law ministry hurriedly waved the age limit of 67 years for anyone to be appointed as governor of the central bank. Economist Mansur is now 72 years old.
The last time the age limit provision got amended from 65 years to 67 years was in July 2020 to accommodate the reappointment of then-governor Fazle Rabbi.
Read more: Money launderers won’t be allowed to sleep in peace: New Bangladesh Bank Governor
He believed that despite high inflation - it hit 11.66 in July in a 13-year high- the central bank under the previous administration did not give full attention to curb it. Controlling inflation remains a top priority for any central bank.
However, money supply, exchange rate stability, and inflation control all depend on the decision of the governor.
Besides, the standard of living, international trade, investment, and employment depend a lot on the decisions of the central bank of any country, he said.
Dr. Mansur started his career as a lecturer, at the Department of Economics, Dhaka University in 1976. He left for Canada for higher studies in economics the same year. As a graduate student and research assistant, he was also offering regular economics courses at the undergraduate level at the University of Western Ontario, Canada (1978-81).
Dr. Mansur joined the International Monetary Fund under its Economist Program in 1981 and thereafter completed his PhD in Economics (on general equilibrium analysis) from the University of Western Ontario in 1982.
During his long career at the IMF, he worked in Middle Eastern, Asian, African, and Central American countries. He worked in important functional departments (Fiscal Affairs and Policy Review and Development departments) and area departments (Middle East and Central Asia and Asian departments) of the IMF.
Read more: Inflation hits 13-year high of 11.7% in July: BBS
He also served as the IMF Senior Resident Representative to Pakistan from 1998-01 and as the Fiscal Advisor to the Minister of Finance, Government of Bangladesh (1989-91).
3 months ago
Fed unleashes another big rate hike in bid to curb inflation
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised its benchmark interest rate by a hefty three-quarters of a point for a second straight time in its most aggressive drive in more than three decades to tame high inflation.
The Fed’s move will raise its key rate, which affects many consumer and business loans, to a range of 2.25% to 2.5%, its highest level since 2018.
Speaking at a news conference after the Fed’s latest policy meeting, Chair Jerome Powell offered mixed signals about the central bank’s likely next moves. He stressed that the Fed remains committed to defeating chronically high inflation, while holding out the possibility that it may soon downshift to smaller rate hikes.
And even as worries grow that the Fed’s efforts could eventually cause a recession, Powell passed up several opportunities to say the central bank would slow its hikes if a recession occurred while inflation was still high.
Roberto Perli, an economist at Piper Sandler, an investment bank, said the Fed chair emphasized that “even if it caused a recession, bringing down inflation is important.”
But Powell’s suggestion that rate hikes could slow now that its key rate is roughly at a level that is believed to neither support nor restrict growth helped ignite a powerful rally on Wall Street, with the S&P 500 stock market index surging 2.6%. The prospect of lower interest rates generally fuel stock market gains.
At the same time, Powell was careful during his news conference not to rule out another three-quarter-point hike when the Fed’s policymakers next meet in September. He said that rate decision will depend upon what emerges from the many economic reports that will be released between now and then.
“I do not think the U.S. is currently in a recession,” Powell said at his news conference in which he suggested that the Fed’s rate hikes have already had some success in slowing the economy and possibly easing inflationary pressures.
The central bank’s decision follows a jump in inflation to 9.1%, the fastest annual rate in 41 years, and reflects its strenuous efforts to slow price gains across the economy. By raising borrowing rates, the Fed makes it costlier to take out a mortgage or an auto or business loan. Consumers and businesses then presumably borrow and spend less, cooling the economy and slowing inflation.
The surge in inflation and fear of a recession have eroded consumer confidence and stirred public anxiety about the economy, which is sending frustratingly mixed signals. And with the November midterm elections nearing, Americans’ discontent has diminished President Joe Biden’s public approval ratings and increased the likelihood that the Democrats will lose control of the House and Senate.
The Fed’s moves to sharply tighten credit have torpedoed the housing market, which is especially sensitive to interest rate changes. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage has roughly doubled in the past year, to 5.5%, and home sales have tumbled.
Consumers are showing signs of cutting spending in the face of high prices. And business surveys suggest that sales are slowing. The central bank is betting that it can slow growth just enough to tame inflation yet not so much as to trigger a recession — a risk that many analysts fear may end badly.
At his news conference, Powell suggested that with the economy slowing, demand for workers easing modestly and wage growth possibly peaking, the economy is evolving in a way that should help reduce inflation.
“Are we seeing the slowdown in economic activity that we think we need?” he asked. “There’s some evidence that we are.”
The Fed chair also pointed to measures that suggest that investors expect inflation to fall back to the central bank’s 2% target over time as a sign of confidence in its policies.
Powell also stood by a forecast Fed officials made last month that their benchmark rate will reach a range of 3.25% to 3.5 % by year’s end and roughly a half-percentage point more in 2023. That forecast, if it holds, would mean a slowdown in the Fed’s hikes. The central bank would reach its year-end target if it were to raise its key rate by a half-point when it meets in September and by a quarter-point at each of its meetings in November and December.
With the Fed having now imposed two straight substantial rate hikes, “I do think they’re going to tiptoe from here,” said Thomas Garretson, senior portfolio strategist at RBC Wealth Management.
On Thursday, when the government estimates the gross domestic product for the April-June period, some economists think it may show that the economy shrank for a second straight quarter. That would meet one longstanding assumption for when a recession has begun.
But economists say that wouldn’t necessarily mean a recession had started. During those same six months when the overall economy might have contracted, employers added 2.7 million jobs — more than in most entire years before the pandemic. Wages are also rising at a healthy pace, with many employers still struggling to attract and retain enough workers.
Still, slowing growth puts the Fed’s policymakers in a high-risk quandary: How high should they raise borrowing rates if the economy is decelerating? Weaker growth, if it causes layoffs and raises unemployment, often reduces inflation on its own.
That dilemma could become an even more consequential one for the Fed next year, when the economy may be in worse shape and inflation will likely still exceed the central bank’s 2% target.
“How much recession risk are you willing to bear to get (inflation) back to 2%, quickly, versus over the course of several years?” asked Nathan Sheets, a former Fed economist who is global chief economist at Citi. “Those are the kinds of issues they’re going to have to wrestle with.”
Also read: Bangladesh inflation lower than many countries in the world: Info Minister
Economists at Bank of America foresee a “mild” recession later this year. Goldman Sachs analysts estimate a 50-50 likelihood of a recession within two years.
2 years ago
Exercise austerity amid global price hike of goods: PM to all
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on Tuesday urged the people to take austerity measures amid high inflation and price hike of goods across the world due to the Russia-Ukraine war and the Covid-19 pandemic.
“Yes, it is true that prices of goods have shot up to some extent. But it is still uncertain how much the prices would soar further. It is not only in Bangladesh, but also throughout the world. Rather we’ve been able to keep these under control at least (to some extent). We’ve been trying our best,” she said.
The premier was addressing a discussion through a virtual platform from her official residence Ganobhaban.
Bangladesh Awami League arranged the discussion at its central office in the city’s Bangabandhu Avenue marking the historic Six-Point Day. Sheikh Hasina, also the AL president, chaired it.
She said this war doesn’t seem to end so soon. “We all have to be economical. We’ll have to pay attention so that food will no way be wasted,” she said adding that the shipping cost to transport goods went up from US$ 800 to US$ 2500-US$ 3,000.
Pointing to the readymade garment workers’ movement to raise salary, the premier said they might lose their jobs if any unrest is created in the sector now in this tough time when the purchasing power of the people is declining in the export markets of Bangladeshi clothes.
"If any kind of unrest is created following someone’s words, it will harm not only the country but also the workers. Everyone will have to keep it in mind. I think the matter should be informed to the workers and their leaders,” she said.
Also read: Villagers to get specialized healthcare services online at home: PM
2 years ago