Nikkei
Asian markets crash; Nikkei plunges nearly 8%
sian stocks plunged Monday, following Friday’s dramatic sell-off on Wall Street amid escalating trade tensions sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff increases and Beijing’s retaliation.
U.S. futures pointed to continued losses. Futures for the S&P 500 declined 2.5%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dropped 2.1%, and Nasdaq futures slid 3.1%.
In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 fell nearly 8% shortly after markets opened, and by midday, the index was down 6% at 31,758.28. A circuit breaker was briefly triggered, halting trading in Topix futures after a sharp drop in U.S. futures.
Financial stocks were among the hardest hit. Shares in Mizuho Financial Group plunged 11.3%, while Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group’s stock fell 9.9%, as investors grew increasingly anxious about the potential global economic impact of the trade conflict.
Chinese markets, which often move independently of global trends, also experienced steep losses. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 9.4% to 20,703.30, and the Shanghai Composite Index shed 6.2% to close at 3,134.98.
Shares in tech giants also took a hit, with Alibaba Group Holdings tumbling 10% and Tencent Holdings falling 9.4%.
South Korea’s Kospi declined 4.1% to 2,363.82, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 lost 3.8% to 7,377.70, after paring back from earlier losses exceeding 6%.
Oil prices continued their descent, with U.S. benchmark crude dropping 4%, or $2.50, to $59.49 per barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, declined $2.25 to $63.33 a barrel.
In currency markets, the U.S. dollar weakened to 146.70 Japanese yen from 146.94 yen. The yen, typically considered a safe haven in times of financial distress, gained ground. The euro eased to $1.0926 from $1.0962.
Friday marked Wall Street’s most severe downturn since the COVID-19 crisis. The S&P 500 dropped 6%, the Dow fell 5.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 5.8%.
Analysts anticipate heightened market volatility and further dramatic price movements in the near term, as hopes for a quick resolution to the trade dispute remain slim.
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Nathan Thooft, chief investment officer and senior portfolio manager at Manulife Investment Management, warned that more countries are likely to introduce retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. Given the number of parties involved, “we believe it will take significant time to navigate through the upcoming negotiations.”
He added, “Our overall assessment is that market uncertainty and volatility are likely to continue for an extended period.”
China's response to Trump’s latest tariff escalation intensified global market losses. Despite a surprisingly strong U.S. jobs report—typically the month's main economic highlight—it wasn’t enough to stop the market slide.
So far, the trade war has yielded few if any winners in the financial markets. Beijing's announcement of retaliatory tariffs—including a 34% tariff on all U.S. imports starting April 10—fueled a fresh wave of selling across global exchanges.
As the world's two largest economies, the U.S. and China are central to global economic stability. A major concern is that a prolonged trade war could tip the world into a recession, which may push equity prices even lower. The S&P 500 has already fallen 17.4% from its record high in February.
Trump acknowledged that Americans may experience “some pain” due to tariffs but maintained that the long-term objectives—such as restoring manufacturing jobs to the U.S.—justify the cost. He appeared indifferent to the significant financial losses faced by investors.
From his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, Trump headed to his nearby golf course after posting on social media, “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO GET RICH.”
The Federal Reserve could potentially soften the economic impact of tariffs by lowering interest rates, which generally encourages spending and borrowing. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautioned on Friday that tariffs may drive up inflation expectations, and rate cuts could further stoke price increases.
“Our responsibility is to keep long-term inflation expectations well anchored and to ensure that a one-time rise in price levels does not evolve into persistent inflation,” Powell said.
Much depends on how long Trump’s tariffs remain in place and how other countries respond. Some on Wall Street are still hopeful Trump might reduce tariffs if he can secure favourable outcomes through negotiations.
Stuart Kaiser, head of U.S. equity strategy at Citi, noted in a Sunday briefing to clients that current earnings forecasts and stock valuations do not fully account for the trade war’s potential effects. “There’s still significant room for further decline despite the recent sharp pullback,” he said.
There was no indication from the Trump administration that it intends to ease the tariff policy that has wiped out trillions in market value.
In an interview on Fox News Channel’s “Sunday Morning Futures,” White House trade adviser Peter Navarro reiterated the president’s position, insisting investors should remain calm. He claimed that the administration’s trade strategy would ultimately lead to “the biggest boom in the stock market we have ever seen.”
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“People just need to stay put, let the market find its bottom, and not get rattled by the panic driven by the media,” Navarro said.
9 days ago
Asian shares gain as investors shrug off downbeat data
Shares were higher in Asia on Friday, despite data suggesting economies are slowing. The advance tracked gains on Wall Street, where the market is headed for its first weekly gain after three weeks of punishing losses.
Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index added 1.2% to 26,491.97 and the Kospi in Seoul jumped 2.4% to 2,369.16. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng advanced 2% to 21,707.92 and the Shanghai Composite index added 1% to 3,354.63.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.8% to 6,577.40. Shares also rose in India and Taiwan.
U.S. and European futures also were higher.
Market players are looking ahead to U.S. inflation data due next week. They appeared to shrug off preliminary data showing a slowing of factory activity in several countries including Japan.
The manufacturing manager surveys of “several developed economies came in lower-than-expected in both the manufacturing and services sector, which points to a broad-based moderation in economic activities,” Jun Rong Yeap of IG said in a commentary.
A report Friday showed inflation in Japan remained at 2.1% in May, pushed higher by energy costs and a weaker currency. However, underlying core inflation, which excludes volatile costs for energy and fresh foods, remained at 0.8% and the central bank is unlikely to follow the example of the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks in raising interest rates, analysts said.
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The Bank of Japan “isn’t convinced that this will be sustainable because wage growth remains soft and higher energy costs are weighing on corporate profits and consumer sentiment,” Marcel Thieliant of Capital Economics said in a report.
On Wall Street, trading was wobbly as investors focused on another round of testimony before Congress by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. He told a House committee the Fed hopes to rein in the worst inflation in four decades without knocking the economy into a recession, but acknowledged “that path has gotten more and more challenging.”
The S&P 500 ended 1% higher at 3,795.73 after having been down as much as 0.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6% to 30,677.36 and the Nasdaq gained 1.6% to 11,232.19.
Smaller company stocks also gained ground. The Russell 2000 rose 1.3% to 1,711.67.
Trading has been turbulent in recent weeks as investors try to determine whether a recession is looming. The benchmark S&P 500 is currently in a bear market. That means it has dropped more than 20% from its most recent high, which was in January. The index has fallen for 10 of the last 11 weeks.
On Thursday, Powell stressed: “I don’t think that a recession is inevitable.” He has said it’s ”certainly a possibility” and that the central bank is facing a more challenging task amid the war in Ukraine essentially pushing oil and other commodity prices even higher and making inflation even more pervasive.
Powell spoke to Congress a week after the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by three quarters of a percentage point, its biggest hike in nearly three decades. Fed policymakers also forecast a more accelerated pace of rate hikes this year and next than they had predicted three months ago, with its key rate to reach 3.8% by the end of 2023. That would be its highest level in 15 years.
The Labor Department reported Thursday that fewer Americans applied for jobless benefits last week, though it was slightly more than economists expected. The solid job market is a relatively bright point in an otherwise weakening economy, with consumer sentiment and retail sales showing increasing damage from inflation.
As higher prices stretch pocketbooks, consumers are shifting spending from big ticket items like electronics to necessities. The pressure has been worsened by record-high gasoline prices that show no sign of abating.
Big technology and health care companies did much of the heavy lifting. Microsoft rose 2.3% and Johnson & Johnson rose 2.2%.
Energy stocks fell as the price of U.S. crude oil dropped 1.8%. Valero fell 7.6%.
Early Friday, U.S. benchmark crude oil was up 36 cents at $104.63 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude, the basis for pricing for international trading, shed 9 cents to $106.55 per barrel.
Bond yields fell significantly. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which helps set mortgage rates, fell to 3.09% from 3.15% late Wednesday.
The U.S. dollar fell to 134.73 Japanese yen from 134.94 yen. The euro rose to $1.0539 from $1.0524.
2 years ago