United News of Bangladesh

Bangladesh’s gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 4.0% in fiscal year 2025-26 and 4.7% in FY27, up from 3.5% in FY25, according to the latest Asian Development Outlook (ADO) April 2026 of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), released on Friday. The growth outlook reflects a recovery in consumption and investment as political uncertainty eases after the general election. Temporary supply chain disruptions linked to conflict in the Middle East affected activity in the last quarter, but their impact is expected to fade, says the report. ADB Country Director Hoe Yun Jeong said Bangladesh is facing a difficult economic environment, shaped by global uncertainties, domestic structural constraints, and pressures on the external and financial sectors. “The new government’s reform agenda offers a timely opportunity to strengthen macroeconomic stability, restore private sector confidence, and support recovery,” he said. “With prudent policies and sustained reforms, the economy is well-positioned to reinforce resilience and return to a more inclusive growth path.” Inflation is projected to remain elevated at 9.0% in FY26, despite some easing, reflecting persistently high global energy prices and ongoing supply disruptions. It is expected to moderate to 8.5% in FY27 as external shocks subside and domestic supply conditions improve. The current account is anticipated to record a modest deficit of 0.5% of GDP in FY26, widening slightly to 0.6% in FY27, driven by stronger import demand and a broader trade deficit, according to the ADO. Remittance inflows are expected to remain resilient in the near term, notwithstanding ongoing tensions in the Middle East, it says. The ADO April 2026 projects moderate growth in consumption and investment, supported by strong remittance inflows and election-related public spending, alongside the government’s implementation of its pledges to promote investment and improve the ease of doing business. On the supply side, services are expected to rebound, driven by improved household purchasing power, increased social protection spending, and ongoing financial sector reforms. Agricultural output is projected to normalise, assuming favourable weather conditions and continued policy support. Industrial activity is also expected to strengthen, supported by export growth, easing supply constraints, and the government’s focus on infrastructure development and energy security. Downside risks to the outlook remain substantial, particularly if the conflict prolongs. Disruptions to global energy markets, shipping routes, and supply chains could drive sustained increases in oil and gas prices, intensifying domestic inflationary pressures and complicating ongoing disinflation efforts, thereby constraining macroeconomic policy flexibility. Higher energy prices could also widen the fiscal deficit, especially if energy-related subsidies increase or the pass through to consumers is delayed. External sector pressures may rise as exports and remittances soften amid slower economic activity in key Persian Gulf economies, while elevated import costs and freight rates would further strain the current account amid already tight external liquidity. Overall, the balance of risks is firmly tilted to the downside, underscoring Bangladesh’s vulnerability to external shocks in a context of still-fragile macroeconomic conditions. Climate related shocks remain an additional, persistent risk, the ADO stated.

The National Economic Council (NEC) on Sunday approved the Annual Development Programme (ADP) amounting to Tk 230,000 crore for the fiscal year 2025–2026. The NEC also approved a separate development outlay of approximately Tk 8,599.71 crore for autonomous bodies and corporations, Planning Adviser Wahiduddin Mahmud told reporters after the NEC meeting. The approval came at the NEC meeting at its conference room in the capital chaired by Chief Adviser and NEC Chairperson Prof Muhammad Yunus. Like previous years, the ADP for FY 2025–26 has been formulated by taking into consideration the country’s available resources, foreign financing, and the overall macroeconomic situation. Priority in the allocation has been given to ongoing projects funded by foreign loans and grants, poverty alleviation initiatives, employment generation, acceleration of GDP growth, agriculture and agro-based industries, education, health, ICT, science and technology, power generation, disaster management and rehabilitation, and human resource development. Ecnec approves Tk 244.14 cr project to enhance disaster resilience Projects under various ministries and divisions that are directly linked to these areas have been given precedence. The meeting was attended by members of the Advisory Council, the Cabinet Secretary, Principal Secretary to the Chief Adviser, Governor of Bangladesh Bank, members of the Planning Commission, senior secretaries and secretaries of different ministries, and other high-level officials.  

Bangladesh’s economy is showing signs of a gradual recovery, though GDP growth remains under pressure due to historically low tax revenues and a struggling banking sector burdened by about 35 percent of defaulted loans. Professor Selim Raihan of the Economics department at Dhaka University, and also Executive Director of the South Asian Network on Economic Modelling (SANEM), told UNB that the IMF has downgraded Bangladesh’s GDP growth forecast, citing weak revenue collection, persistent inflation and growing fiscal stress. “This signals a slowing economy characterised by declining job creation, fragile private sector investment and increasing external vulnerabilities. Inflation is likely to remain high, placing further strain on household budgets and eroding purchasing power,” Dr Raihan explained. To address these issues, he recommended widening the tax base, cutting subsidies, and enhancing public financial management, and stressed the importance of bolstering the central bank’s independence, containing inflation and encouraging private investment through regulatory reforms. Dr Raihan also emphasised that diversifying exports, improving infrastructure, and investing in education and healthcare would strengthen economic resilience and support sustainable long-term growth. Bangladesh’s banking system continues to face major challenges, with a large share of defaulted loans constraining the flow of credit to the private sector, contributing to the downward revision of GDP growth forecasts by global lenders. Dr Raihan also noted that the government’s move to reduce allocations for mega development projects has compounded the slowdown. The IMF recently adjusted its GDP growth projection for the current fiscal year (FY 2024–25) to 3.76 percent – a slight drop from the 3.8 percent forecast in December 2024 and a notable decrease from the 4.5 percent projected in October 2024. ADB projects 3.9% GDP growth for Bangladesh in FY2024-25 Despite the revised outlook, Bangladesh ranks as the ninth-largest economy in Asia based on total GDP, now valued at US$450.5 billion according to 2024 data. The Asian Development Bank (ADB), in its 2025 Basic Statistics report, placed Bangladesh as the second-largest economy in South Asia, after India, among 46 countries surveyed (excluding Japan). The IMF’s projected 3.76 percent growth would mark the lowest since FY 2019–20, when the COVID-19 pandemic severely disrupted economies worldwide. For FY 2025–26, the IMF has also trimmed its growth forecast to 6.53 percent from the previously estimated 6.7 percent. While the IMF report did not provide detailed reasons for the downward revision, Chris Papageorgiou, Chief of the Development Macroeconomics Division in the IMF’s Research Department and head of a recent mission to Bangladesh, said the economy continues to face “multiple challenges amid elevated global uncertainty”. He highlighted a slowdown in GDP growth to 3.3 percent year-on-year during the first half of FY25, down from 5.1 percent during the same period in FY24. The decline was attributed to domestic unrest, tighter monetary and fiscal policies, and a general climate of uncertainty that has dampened investment sentiment. The ADB’s latest outlook closely mirrors that of the IMF, projecting 3.9 percent growth for FY 2025, rising to 5.1 percent in FY 2026. The Bank also warned of challenges such as subdued domestic demand linked to political transitions, the threat of natural disasters, labour unrest and persistently high inflation. Inflation remains one of the key concerns. The IMF expects inflation to stay around 10 percent during the current fiscal year, potentially easing to 5.18 percent in FY 2026. The ADB, meanwhile, forecasts an increase to 10.2 percent in FY 2025, with a projected decline to 8 percent in the following year. Bangladesh’s GDP growth 6.12% in Jan-Mar of FY 2023-24: BBS Despite these downward adjustments, both the IMF and ADB foresee a gradual recovery in Bangladesh’s economic trajectory over the medium term. But, the current outlook underscores the significant headwinds the country must navigate to sustain its previous high-growth momentum. Dr M Masrur Reaz, macroeconomist and Chairman of Policy Exchange Bangladesh, told UNB that despite the sluggish pace, the economy is gradually moving towards recovery. He highlighted that export earnings and remittance inflows are helping to stabilise the foreign exchange reserves and revitalise the rural economy – factors which are contributing positively to macroeconomic stability. “Severe regulatory lapses in the banking sector and massive loan scams have delayed the recovery of the macroeconomy. However, recent efforts to reform the banking sector and restore public confidence in financial institutions will be vital to reviving GDP growth,” he said. He cautioned that the IMF’s projections should not be interpreted as an indication that the economy is in dire straits.

Bangladesh Bank (BB) has announced a new monetary policy for the remainder of the current fiscal year 2024-25, targeting an inflation rate of 7-8% and setting GDP growth at 4-5%. Governor Dr Ahsan H Mansur presented the new monetary policy during a press conference at Jahangir Alam Conference Hall of the central bank on Monday. The monetary policy focuses on stabilising three key financial indicators: exchange rates, inflation and interest rates. BB to announce contractionary monetary policy on Monday It also aims to provide a slight economic expansion, despite a significant decrease in private sector credit flow, as the global economic slowdown, along with the impact of domestic financial scams, has contributed to sluggish GDP and credit growths in Bangladesh. Bangladesh Bank set to unveil monetary policy as rate speculation swirls However, the policy interest rate remains unchanged, meaning lending rates will not rise further. Despite recommendations from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the central bank has opted to maintain the policy rate.  

The government aims to collect total revenue amounting to 11.2 percent of GDP by the end of the 2025-26 fiscal, according to the Medium Term Macroeconomic Policy Statement (2023-24 to 2025-26) of the Finance Division under the Finance Ministry. It said that Bangladesh has consistently maintained an expansionary fiscal stance keeping a moderate budget deficit—usually around 5 percent of GDP—to foster economic growth, reduce poverty, and improve social outcomes. However, the tax-GDP ratio in Bangladesh is significantly lower than its peers and hence, the government has taken several initiatives to improve revenue collection. Yet, it said, the fast pace of GDP growth has made it challenging to increase the ratio. No tax fair, NBR will organise tax support service to smooth returns submission The measures that have been undertaken are expected to gradually improve revenue collection by increasing both the tax volume and the number of taxpayers. The Statement said that the foremost objectives of the public expenditure policy are to stimulate private investment through building infrastructures and improving the business climate, creating employment opportunities, supporting low-income population through social safety net programs, and reducing poverty through ensuring efficient redistribution of wealth and thus ensuring inclusive development. With the advent of the Covid-19 outbreak, the government started to focus on saving lives while keeping the living standards from falling. To do this, it mentioned, the Government emphasised on retaining jobs, providing income support, keeping supply chains active, reviving the rural economy, and ensuring food supply. Public pension is considered tax-free, notification soon: Finance Ministry For this, the government increased spending and implemented comprehensive recovery programs consisting of twenty-eight stimulus packages. The stimulus efforts worked well and as a result the economy returned to a high growth trajectory fast while other countries continued to struggle. However, the Russia-Ukraine war has again posed considerable risks and to mitigate the risks the Government has been pursuing a policy to rationalise public expenditure to stimulate economic growth by inducing domestic productivity growth. While managing the economy to maximise welfare and development, the government is expected to maintain a budget deficit of around 5 percent of GDP over the medium term. Historically, the size of public expenditure has been low relative to GDP in Bangladesh because of various limitations in the process of revenue collection and budget implementation. Land Development Tax Bill 2023 passed in JS To improve the situation, the government has undertaken certain strategies to increase public expenditure. The target of increasing public expenditure has been set to around 16.2 percent of GDP in FY 2025-26. Moreover, the government is pursuing the Public Financial Management (PFM) reforms process to achieve this target. To improve overall public service delivery, financial control of budget allocations, real-time monitoring of budget execution, and integration of recurrent and capital spending, implementation of the PFM Action Plan (2018-23) is ongoing, and revised PFM Reform Action Plan (2024-2028) has recently been formulated. Under the PFM reforms, pension automation and E-challan automation systems have been introduced with the help of iBAS++ software. This system continues to play a significant role in simplifying the budget management process. At the same time, all beneficiary programs are being brought under the Government to Person (G2P) payment system with the help of the iBAS++ software, which brings greater transparency in government expenditure management. In addition, all government allocations from government institutions as well as all semi-government, autonomous, and state-owned enterprises, are being brought under the Treasury Single Account (TSA) through the iBAS++ system in the medium term. How to Deactivate TIN in Bangladesh: A Comprehensive Guide

BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir on Monday said the real income of the country’s 90% people has marked a fall but the government has been showing a 'hoaxed' GDP growth to hide its failure to control the price hike of essentials. "It’s horrible that the lives of people have become miserable due to the rise in commodity prices. But the government is denying it outright. Ministers are saying that the prices have gone up with the rise in their (people's) incomes," he said. Speaking at a discussion, the BNP leader said the government has been trying to fool people by talking about GDP growth and the rise in per capita income. "Whose income has increased? They (govt) show a hoaxed GDP. What's GDP? GDP is calculated by adding up all things, including that comes from production,” said Fakhrul, also a former teacher of economics. Also read: Draft regulations on digital media going to suppress people’s voice: BNP Swadhinata Forum arranged the programme at the Jatiya Press Club, marking the first death anniversary of late BNP standing committee member Moudud Ahmed. On March 16 last year, Moudud Ahmed died while undergoing treatment at a Singapore hospital at the age of 81. About the 'hoaxed' per capita income, Fakhrul said it is measured by dividing the nation’s total income with the country’s population. “For example, I earn Tk50,000 a month while my brother earns Tk5,000 a month. If you divide these incomes together, then the per capita income will be Tk25,000 But it’s not our real income.” He said around 90% of people are earning lower than earlier while the poverty rate has risen by another 2% in the country. Fakhrul alleged that the Awami League government has constituted the Election Commission to hold another election of fraud as they did earlier. Also read: Need greater unity to oust AL govt: Fakhrul He warned that people will come up with strong resistance this time and thwart all evil plans of the ruling party. Recalling the chequered life of Barrister Moudud Ahmed, the BNP secretary general said he was a truly knowledgeable and prudent politician. “Knowledge and wisdom are not given that much importance these days in politics as we’re passing through a time of tainted politics,” he observed. Fakhrul said Moudud had fought for democracy throughout his life. “He was evicted from his house and many false cases were filed against him as he wanted to restore democracy. We must get united to materialise his desire. ”

Bangladesh achieved an impressive 6.94 percent GDP growth in the 2020-21 fiscal year amid the Covid-19 pandemic, according to a final estimate of the government. The country's GDP size stood at US$ 416 billion and the per capita income rose to US$ 2,591 (as per GNI) in the last fiscal year, said Planning Minister MA Mannan quoting the estimate. Read:Govt targets 17% expenditure of GDP for next two fiscals: Document The estimate was placed at the weekly meeting of the Executive Committee of the National Economic Council (Ecnec) on Tuesday. Ecnec Chair and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina presided over the meeting, joining it virtually from her official residence Ganobhaban. Other ministers and officials concerned were connected with the meeting from the NEC conference room.  "The GDP growth rate finally stood at 6.94 percent in the last fiscal year, which is much higher than the provisional estimate of 5.43 percent," said Minister Mannan while briefing reporters after the meeting. 

Bangladeshis working abroad are expected to send huge money back home over the next three fiscal years helping the country’s foreign currency reserve to hit USD 53.99 billion by the middle of 2023-24 fiscal year. The government projects over a 12 percent increase on average in the inflow of remittance, the key driver of the country’s more than $409 billion economy, over the next three fiscal years, including the current one. According to a Finance Ministry document obtained by UNB, the remittance inflow of 2019-20, 2020-21 and 2021-22 was 11.2 percent and 36 percent while the target for the current 2021-22 fiscal is 15 percent with a projection of 12 percent and 10 percent for 2022-23 and 2023-24 fiscals respectively. Read:Bangladesh Bank allows receiving remittances through OPGSPs The document reveals that the foreign exchange reserve was USD 36.04 billion and USD 44 billion in 2019-20 fiscal and 2020-21 fiscal respectively while the target for the current 2021-22 fiscal is USD 48.37 billion with projection of having USD 50.74 billion and USD 53.99 billion for 2022-23 fiscal and 2023-24 fiscal respectively. For a developing and emerging economy, the role of foreign remittances has always been crucial. In the context of Bangladesh, foreign remittances are expected to help reduce the current account deficit and augment GDP growth by stimulating domestic demands, the document says. On the other hand, it says, the micro-level context shows that remittance inflows affect the lifestyle of the household as well as increase the saving level that can serve as an important source of capital. The document mentions that the government has taken several initiatives to increase remittance inflows as well as foreign employment. The initiatives include providing cash incentives for sending remittances through banking channels, simplification of remittance-related rules and regulations, reduction in administrative costs for sending remittances through financial institutions and exploration of new market sources for manpower export. The official remittance inflows began going up in the 2020-21 fiscal despite global and domestic impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic. The total inflow of foreign remittances during the 2020-21 fiscal was $24.77 billion which is 36 percent higher than the same period of the previous fiscal year. According to the document, the current account deficit widened in the 2019-20 fiscal due to weak exports before moving into surplus in the 2020-21 fiscal, supported by a surge in official remittance inflows.

In the midst of the most significant economic slowdown in decades, the fisheries sector in coastal district Jashore proved a mainstay for the economy in the 2020-21 fiscal, that helped Bangladesh avoid recession or even contraction. Bangladesh’s GDP growth fell from 8.2% in the 2019-20 fiscal to just 3.8% in 2020-21 – theslowest annual growth in the country’s GDP in 30 years. That represents a slump in economic activity that would have been unacceptable in normal times. But in a year blighted by the virus where we saw most countries experience contraction in their economies (negative growth), Bangladesh’s 3.8% was the fifth-highest GDP growth rate in the world. Read Hilsa Ilisha: The National Fish and Silver Pride of Bangladesh The economic downturn brought on by the pandemic affected almost every sector in the country. The impact was pervasive yet uneven. This was the general picture reflected in most economies around the world. For the record, the world economy did fall into recession in 2020, with the IMF's final assessment estimating it shrank 3.3%. The fisheries sector emerged as one of the major pillars holding up the economy and helping Bangladesh to avoid a recession. Technically, a country’s economy enters recession once it experiences two successive quarters of negative growth, or contraction. To get out of a recession then requires two successive quarters of growth back. Read: Hilsa prices rise as catch from the Padma dries up  

The government has taken a massive move to upgrade the railway network of the country as within the land communication system, the railway sector is considered as the safest, comfortable, affordable and environment-friendly means for transporting passengers and goods. Considering the importance of railways as a means of public transport in meeting the demands of the country's large population , the government has been taking a range of steps to ensure balanced and integrated development of the sector.  Read: Special cattle train starts on Chapainawabganj-Dhaka route As part of the 30 year revised master plan (2016-2045) of Bangladesh Railway, Cox's Bazar, Mongla Port, Tungipara, Barisal, Chattogram Hill Tracts and other parts of the country will be brought under the railway network. The plan spans the period earmarked for Bangladesh, having graduated to become a middle-income nation, to take the next step and becoming a prosperous nation (Vision 2041). Under the master plan, 230 projects will be implemented in six phases at a cost of Tk. 553,662 crore (5.5 trillion)- nearly the size of the entire national budget passed recently for the current fiscal (2021-22).  According to an official document, the government is going to construct 798.09 km of new railway lines, 897 km of dual gauge/double railway lines parallel to existing railway lines. Read Railway launches luggage van to transport vegetables It will also rehabilitate 886.51 km of railway lines, construct nine important railway bridges, and construct level crossings.