Dr Debapriya Bhattacharya
Bureaucrats pressured to serve political interests during AL regime: Debapriya
Dr Debapriya Bhattacharya, head of the committee tasked with preparing a white paper on the state of Bangladesh's economy, on Sunday said a section of bureaucrats driven by political aspirations had pressured others within the bureaucracy to serve the interests of the previous Awami League government.
“The administration was mostly controlled by political influences,” said Dr. Debapriya, also a Distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) and the Convenor of the Citizen’s Platform for SDGs, Bangladesh.
He made these remarks during a press briefing at the NEC conference room following a meeting with 85 senior bureaucrats from across the country.
AL accuses interim govt of pursuing vendetta against the party
Dr. Debapriya noted that when some bureaucrats attempted to raise objections, senior officials often forced them to align their views with the then political agenda.
“Many officials became entangled in political ambitions, which led them into various challenges over time,” he added.
However, Dr. Debapriya said some bureaucrats managed to stand firm in their views and made a significant impact during the Awami League administration.
Several of them shared that their differing opinions came at a high professional cost, including being denied promotions, he said.
He further noted that the bureaucrats had highlighted issues such as the lack of capacity building, coordination, and willingness within the administration.
“They stressed the need for enhanced capacity building, better coordination, and a stronger commitment to reform,” he added.
2 weeks ago
Gap between local realities and national development narrative widening: Citizen’s Platform
Citizen’s Platform for SDGs, Bangladesh on Thursday said the local-level development is affected by poor institutional effectiveness as the efficacy of public institutions has gradually eroded in the country.
“Capacity of public institutions to service the disadvantaged groups, profile and prestige of local leadership have diminished overtime. Citizens’ voice has weakened too.” said Citizen's Platform Convenor Dr Debapriya Bhattacharya.
Read more: Economic mismanagement creating instability in market: Debapriya
He was addressing a media briefing in the city’s BRAC Centre Inn to share local opinions received from a series of sub-regional consultation meetings.
The Citizen’s Platform arranged the seven consultation meetings between June and October this year to understand how much the local realities reflect the national development narrative. More than 500 engaged citizens from 25 districts of Bangladesh participated in the meetings and expressed their views and opinions.
Dr Debapriya said that citizen’s voices, role of CSOs and NGOs and civic activism of students suppressed by a “culture of fear” that has intensified in the recent past.
Middle class on the retreat
He said that local situations reveal that the leadership role of the middle class is retreating in setting social norms and inclusive cultural approach in society. “Their socio-cultural role has been squeezed. The middle class is also under pressure due to lack of employment, high inflation and decline of income,” he added.
He said that the disjunction has widened between national development narrative and local experience as there is uneven distribution of the development gains due to discriminatory design, weak delivery and limited access to resources and public services.
Dr Debapriya said that, according to the consultation participants, the impact of ongoing inflationary pressure has fallen disproportionately on the marginalised groups and people with low income. “Traditionally ‘left behind’ groups are not being able to reach national averages,” he said.
Read more: Economy needs transitional policy to overcome the crisis: Debapriya
The gap between national development narrative and local realities, and asymmetries were aggravated further by lack of democratic accountability, he added.
Focusing further on local realities, he said the rich tradition of cultural activities gradually receding; social fabric weakened as values of tolerance, trust and compassion withering away; and political space for pluralistic views, conversation and engagement narrowing.
“There is rising concern among the district-level citizens that the smooth developmental progression of Bangladesh may get jeopardised due to adverse national and global economic outlook, as well as because of the apprehended political violence during the upcoming democratic transition,” said Dr Debapriya.
1 year ago
Rotary Club of Uttara awards Dr Debapriya , 7 others
Eight prominent personalities have been awarded by the Rotary Club of Uttara, a leading club in Bangladesh, recognising their contributions to society.
Dr Debapriya Bhattacharya, an economist and distinguished fellow of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), was among the awardees for his role as a policy analyst at home and abroad, said a press release on Saturday.
The other awardees are educationist and former Principal of Dhaka College Professor Jahanara Begum, Debate for Democracy Chairman Hassan Ahmed Chowdhury Kiron, Jamuna TV Special Correspondent Mohsin Ul Hakim, Bangladesh Tennis Federation’s Secretary General ASM Haider Ali, Corporate Sector personality Maruf Satter, Exim Bank’s Managing Director Haider Ali and Agriculturist Professor Md Abdul Wahab.
Also read: 10 banks, 5 NBFIs get BIBM awards for sustainable financial performance
Commerce Minister Tipu Munshi attended the programme as the chief guest.
2 years ago
A roadmap needed for debt repayment of 20 mega projects: Debapriya
Economist Dr Debapriya Bhattacharya on Thursday called for a roadmap for debt repayment of the top mega projects which will be started between 2024 and 2026.
“A major shock is coming to the economy between 2024 and 2026 in terms of debt repayments for mega projects that cause concern for the economy. A plan is needed to deal with this situation,” he suggested.
Dr Debapriya, a special fellow of the Center for Policy Dialogue (CPD), a private think tank, spoke to reporters about 20 mega projects in the country in a virtual conversation on Thursday.
Also read: Mega projects won’t affect the economy: PM
He also said currently the ratio of foreign debt to gross domestic product (GDP) is 1.1 per cent which may be doubled by 2026.
In response to the question of whether Bangladesh will be in trouble or not, he said, it will actually depend on how the country's reserve situation is at that time, and how well the economy remains.
Debapriya also said that Russia, China, and Japan will have to pay more for big projects. Among them, China's debt repayment period is quite short.
Also read: Huge amount of money being siphoned abroad from mega projects: BNP
He analyzed 20 mega projects, including Padma Bridge, Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant, tunnel under Karnaphuli River, Matarbari coal-based power plant, metro rail, rail connection of Padma Bridge and others.
About Tk5.57 lakh crore is being spent on these projects. About 62 per cent of this is foreign debt.
Debapriya also said that since 2009 there is a kind of national consensus on taking up big projects. Politicians show interest in it as visible development can be seen if big projects are implemented, he said.
Even though 20 projects are scheduled to be completed by 2028, Debapriya said that it will not be possible to complete all of them in the current decade.
He also pointed out that there is a lack of transparency and accountability in project implementation.
2 years ago
“Information Blindness” prevailing in country: Dr Debapriya
Distinguished fellow of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) Dr Debapriya Bhattacharya on Tuesday said that “Information Blindness” has been prevailing in the country.
Dr Debapriya, also the member for UN Committee for Development Policy (CDP), made the remarks while addressing a discussion meeting on the use of financial information and right to information towards ensuring transparency and accountability.
Read: CPD starts 4-day international conference on 50 years of Bangladesh Monday
Organized jointly by the Asia Foundation, CPD and the Economic Reporters’ Forum (ERF), senior research fellow of CPD Towfiqul Islam Khan made the key-note presentation at the meeting held at the ERF’ auditorium at Paltan.
Debapriya said either the government or the concerned authorities could failed to perceive that information could be a supporting force. “There is also a lack of modern mindset on effectiveness of information towards optimum utilization of limited resources which is also not consistent with the moderate world,”
He also opined that even such dearth in information and data is also not consistent with the development desire of the country as well as its efforts to ensure recovery from the pandemic, attaining the SDGs by 2030 and thus becoming a prosperous developed country by 2041.
Moderated by ERF general secretary SM Rashidul Islam, its executive committee member and former Bureau chief of Reuters Sirajul Islam Qadir also spoke on the occasion.
Debapriya said since Bangladesh is now on the way towards graduation from the LDCs, such country needs to have “trigger indicator” to avail support from the international community if it faces any challenge beyond graduation.
“So, the situation of graduation from the LDCs by Bangladesh has increased the demand for financial information by 100 times. Although the matter is acknowledged verbally, but no such action is still evident,” he said.
He said after LDC graduation, sufficient support would not be available if there is no timely supply of full-fledged information. It will also tarnish the image of the country.
Read: CPD for reinstating previous fuel prices
During the COVID-19 pandemic, he said the global production and supply chain was halted which led to the decrease in demand. Under the circumstances, the governments had to increase expenditure, especially to the lagging behind communities, through various support measures.
He said even the public representatives were not fully aware of the fact as to what was the overall stimulus package amount, who were the recipients and how much amount was disbursed. It was not possible to disburse even 20 per cent of the Taka 2,500 cash support (Eid Gifts) to each beneficiary due to lack of data and information.
He observed that the researchers as well as the public representatives are not getting latest information. As a result, it is not being possible to make qualitative evaluation on education, health and in other sectors.
2 years ago
Speakers for using ‘disengaged youths’ for development
Speakers at a virtual dialogue on Wednesday stressed the need for using the country’s ‘disengaged youths’ for the development of the country.
“Bangladesh youths have very innovative power and many of them are becoming entrepreneurs and surviving in the global competitions with their merit and talent. But there is another youth community who is not properly used for the country and the nation,” said noted economist Dr Debapriya Bhattacharya.
Citizen’s Platform for SDGs Bangladesh and UNDP Bangladesh arranged the virtual dialogue on “Disengaged Youth in Bangladesh: Who, Why and How?” on the eve of the International Youth Day 2021, which would be observed on Thursday (August 12) across the world.
Dr Bhattacharya, also the Convenor of the Citizen’s Platform said the disengaged youths are not engaged in education, training or employment. “We call them ‘Disengaged Youth’ not ‘Alienated Youth’ of the country,” he said.
Noting that there is difference in opinion over the definition of youths, he said if the people aged below 25 years are considered as youths, they would be 45 percent of the country’s population, who will lead the global development programmes in future.
Read: Dhaka-Beijing ties can be prime mover for Bangladesh’s transformation: Debapriya
However, the youths are badly facing the brunt of the ongoing pandemic situation, Dr Debapriya Bhattacharya, also a distinguished fellow of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).
UNDP Resident Representative Sudipto Mukerjee in his introductory speech put emphasis on connecting the disengaged youths to the mainstream for keeping the commitment made under the 2030 global development agenda (SDGs) to ‘Leave No One Behind’.
He said many young people are at a great risk of being deprived of the entitlement of leading dignified and productive lives. “If they will not be quickly connected, we would badly fail in achieving the agenda 2030,” he said.
Researcher Maha Mirza said there is a lack of policy discourse to address the huge number of the youth population disengaged from the country’s socio-economic development process.
“Since our planners and policymakers can’t think beyond three things –garments, remittance and 4th industrial revolution, the biggest portion of the youth community, who are engaged in different sorts of economic activities in information and formal sectors across the country, often remain out of their plans and policies,” she said.
Transgender rights activist Tashnuva Anan Shishir pointed out the absence of specific legal facilities, social stigma and lack of awareness are leaving the transgender youths behind.
Read: Protect consumption, promote employment in next budget: Debapriya
Disability Rights Activist Joshiah Sangma Chibol mentioned that people with disabilities are not a homogenous group, rather there are many dimensions to it. Different types of physical disability and social stigma prevents them from accessing general education and basic rights, which needs to be addressed for future development.
Executive Director of Youth Engagement for Sustainability (YES), Bangladesh Shamim Ahmed said more focus should be on youth skill development and employment to contribute more towards the economy. The policies should not be urban-centric only, he suggested.
Mohon Rabidas, Tea Garden Worker Rights Activist, commented that the youth of the tea garden workers community are mostly disengaged from the outside world and do not even receive proper education, for which they are unable to raise their voice.
Jimi Amir of Bangladesh Open Source Network (BdOSN) said the term “disengaged” needs to be accurately defined to address the overall youth disengagement.
CPD Senior Research Fellow Towfiqul Islam Khan moderated the dialogue.
3 years ago
Bangladesh must assess post-graduation IPR implications, says Debapriya
Bangladesh urgently needs to assess the possible implications of Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) to overcome the challenges during the post-LDC graduation, eminent economist Dr Debapriya Bhattacharya has said.
He said the IPR issues should be actively embed in the country’s LDC transition strategy, looking beyond the pharmaceutical waiver facility under the TRIPS Agreement of the World Trade Organisation.
Now only market access for exports and pharmaceutical waiver-related issues are getting overwhelming focus in the country’s LDC graduation discourse, the distinguished fellow of Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) said in an interview with UNB on Wednesday.
READ: Dhaka-Beijing ties can be prime mover for Bangladesh’s transformation: Debapriya
Bhattacharya said in the post-graduation phase Bangladesh will have to maintain standards providing protection to patents, copyright, industrial designs and undisclosed information, among others. The country will have to provide remedies against such infringements, he said
But the IPR-related concerns remain the most under-stated in the discussion despite the knowledge that economy will be the future of the country and also the world, he added.
Available IPR expertise in Bangladesh is possibly least mobilised in the context of articulating smooth LDC transition strategy, he said pointing to the huge challenge in case of losing duty-free quota-free market access and pharmaceutical waiver during its post-graduation era after 2026.
Read Bangladesh prepares to face challenges after transition from LDC
“Though important IP-related initiatives are seen in both the public and private sectors of the country, these progressive efforts are yet to be connected to LDC graduation fallouts,” said Dr Debapriya, a former Bangladesh Ambassador to WTO.
He said no IPR issue beyond the pharmaceutical waiver facility under the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) has attracted attention in Bangladesh. “Even here, we pursue a benign defensive strategy asking for more transition time, not a constructively operative strategy to prepare the country for the post-transitional phase with necessary ISMs.”
Alongside the assessment of IP implications, Bangladesh should identify IP issues for availing international support measures (ISMs) for its graduation from the group of least developed countries (LDCs), he said.
READ: Protect consumption, promote employment in next budget: Debapriya
“It is essential to embed IP dimensions in transitional strategy and form a dedicated team under the national task force to find out the ways to address the IP-related challenges,” said the economist.
Bangladesh also needs to identify IP stakeholders clearly and organise them to address the IP concerns, said the public policy analyst.
While the National Task Force responsible for designing the country's graduation strategy has a sub-committee on IP, it is important to have a more open and wide-ranging discussion with stakeholders in this regard. The proposed IP related need assessment would also benefit from such an inclusive approach.
Read Potential export sectors need support after LDC graduation: Experts
About the country’s IP progress, Dr Debapriya mentioned that National Innovation and Intellectual Property Policy 2018 was framed, the copyright law was updated to bring it in line with the digital environment and IP institutions like Bangladesh IP Forum were established.
Besides, a discussion started to get the Patent Cooperation Treaty (PCT) and Madrid System membership under the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) for international protection of trademark. There is a growing interest regarding IP issues amongst IT start-ups and tech entrepreneurs; he went on.
However, Bangladesh needs to create an integrated IP governance system in the country by reviewing the mandates of the copyright office and trademark office as well as taking on board new issues like intangible products and IT-based products, he suggested.
Read Dhaka seeks incentive-based package for sustainable graduation of LDCs
Dr Debapriya, a member of the United Nations Committee for Development Policy (UN CDP), said IP intensive goods and services are now an important component of exports and imports in the world. This aspect has to be kept in mind as we articulate our LDC transition strategy.
He said intangible capital like technology, hardware and software and branding contributes twice as much as tangible capital to the total value of manufactured goods, while average workers in an IP-intensive industry can earn some 46 per cent more than counterparts in a non-IP industry, he said adding that the charges for the use of IP were total US$ 409 billion across the world in 2019.
All the recently concluded bilateral and regional trade agreements across the world had IP-related clauses in them. The recently concluded Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) includes a chapter on intellectual property rights-related issues. As Bangladesh prepares to ink a number of bilateral free trade agreements, the country has to be prepared on how to go about IP protection issues in these prospective treaties.
Read Access to Covid vaccines top priority for LDCs: Dhaka
3 years ago
Next 2 weeks crucial to ensure TRIPS waiver for pharma beyond LDC graduation
Noted economist Dr Debapriya Bhattacharya on Saturday said the next two weeks is very crucial for Bangladesh ahead of the General Council meeting of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) to negotiate to continue enjoying pharmaceutical waivers beyond the LDC graduation in 2026 under the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS).
Currently there is a proposal asking the pharmaceutical waiver for an additional 12 years period for the LDCs in their post-graduation phase. The issue is an agenda item for the next meeting of the WTO general council to be held on July 26-27, he said.
“The next two weeks is very important for Bangladesh if it wants to continue getting the pharmaceutical waivers under TRIPS (a legal agreement between all the member nations of WTO) ….Bangladesh –in view of the upcoming WTO General Council meeting—needs to mount a robust negotiating effort and demonstrate necessary political initiative mobilizing all political assets and negotiation power,” said the public policy analyst.
Dr Bhattacharya, also former Bangladesh ambassador to WTO, made the remarks at a virtual press conference.
Explaining the political initiative, he said the Bangladesh mission in Geneva undoubtedly plays its role there. But it is not enough.
Also read: Dhaka-Beijing ties can be prime mover for Bangladesh’s transformation: Debapriya
“The issue is much more related to political affairs rather than a matter of negotiation. So, a political effort is very important here,” he said, adding that Bangladesh needs to raise its logical stance before its development partners and trade partners through its diplomats stationed in major countries – Washington, Brussels, London and Tokyo.
Dr Bhattacharya, a distinguished fellow of Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), said the next WTO general council meeting may not reach the final decision over the extension of pharmaceutical waiver. So, Bangladesh may need to continue the negotiating effort until the 12th WTO ministerial conference to be held on November 30 to December 30, 2021 in Geneva, where the final decision over the issue can be seen, he said.
If Bangladesh does not get the post-graduation facility of the pharmaceutical waiver under TRIPS Agreement, it will affect the country’s pharmaceutical industries particularly the small enterprises, increase the prices of drug and enhance the health-related cost of the people, he said.
Besides, Bangladesh, beyond the LDC group, should make the country-specific approach to trading and development partners to continue enjoying the facilities beyond its graduation as did Maldives, said the renowned economist adding that Maldives could continue getting such facilities even after its graduation from the LDC.
“Bangladesh will have to take its own stance beyond the LDCs group and I meant to make a country-specific approach. It is possible inside the WTO. All the LDCs might not get the facility. Rather some selected countries could get it. It may happen in the WTO,” he said.
Also read: Protect consumption, promote employment in next budget: Debapriya
There are currently seven graduating LDCs including Bangladesh among 35 LDC members of WTO.
Dr Bhattacharya stressed the need for keeping the intellectual property right (IPR) issue in the midst of the country’s transitional strategy and LDC graduation discourse to face the changes Bangladesh is witnessing in the IPR.
He mentioned that the WTO’s TRIPS council on June 29, 2021 agreed to extend the LDC transition period by another 13 years. The TRIPS under its Article-66.1 has provided the transitional period for implementation of the commitments by the LDCs since 1995, but the provision expired on July 1, 2021.
Though Chad placed the extension proposal on behalf of the LDC group in the WTO, a large number of member-states went on record to appreciate the constructive role played by the Bangladesh delegation in this regard.
3 years ago
Dhaka-Beijing ties can be prime mover for Bangladesh’s transformation: Debapriya
Distinguished Fellow of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) Dr Debapriya Bhattacharya has said there is a full potential for Bangladesh-China relationship to be a prime mover for the economic and social transformation of Bangladesh in the next decade.
He, however, said it will largely depend on how they prepare for it, address the prerequisites and be careful about the pitfalls which lie in their way.
The economist said Bangladesh must insist that duty-free quota-free (DFQF) market access extended by China to Bangladesh has to be extended beyond the graduation (of Bangladesh from the LDC group).
Also read: Rohingya Repatriation: Beijing assures to act as bridge to facilitate early results
“Because, beyond graduation, we’ll still need market access support from our developing partners, including the South-South partners,” he said while addressing a virtual roundtable.
Dr Debapriya hoped that China will declare that the duty-free quota-free market access will be available for Bangladesh, at least for the first nine years after the graduation.
“The European Union and others are being persuaded to do so. The issue is on the table at the WTO. Thankfully, China, India and other southern countries are supporting us over there - the LDC group’s proposal,” he added.
Due to the pandemic, the bilateral trade volume was dented with a 13.6% drop to 15.9 billion dollars last year.
However, the “resilience and dynamism” of the two economies make it reasonable to expect a huge rebound this year.
According to statistics from China Customs, the trade volume in the first four months of 2021 is 7.19 billion dollars with a 42.9% year-on increase.
Also read: Never worry about any 'debt trap': Beijing to Dhaka
China’s export to and import from Bangladesh stand at 6.84 billion and 350 million dollars, growing by 43.8% and 28.1% respectively.
Last year, China granted 97% duty-free treatment to Bangladeshi products, which is seen as an important step towards a higher level of bilateral trade liberalization.
Earlier, Dr Debapriya said, Bangladesh used to export over 5,000 goods and now another 3000 goods have been added to it. “So, we can export 8,256 items to the Chinese market, which is a great achievement.”
He said the Bangladesh-China relationship needs to be understood in the global context and also in the regional context not only in the bilateral context.
Debapriya said it is important that they get China more involved in creating the regional and global value chain in Bangladesh. “Bangladesh and China should be together in the global and regional value chain.”
Also read: Experts for building brighter future keeping growing Dhaka-Beijing ties unaffected amidst geopolitics
Chinese Ambassador to Bangladesh Li Jiming delivered the keynote speech at the virtual roundtable titled “Bangladesh China Relations: Prognosis of the Future.” It was hosted by the Cosmos Foundation, the philanthropic arm of the Cosmos Group, as part of its ongoing Ambassador’s Lecture Series.
The opening remarks were delivered by the Cosmos Foundation Chairman, Enayetullah Khan. The session was chaired by Dr Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, renowned scholar-diplomat and former Advisor on Foreign Affairs of Bangladesh Caretaker Government.
Ambassador (retd) Tariq A. Karim, CPD Distinguished Fellow Dr. Debapriya Bhattacharya, former Foreign Secretary Shamsher Chowdhury BB, Assistant Researcher of the Institute for International Studies at Yunnan University Dr Zou Yingmeng, Assistant Research Fellow at China Institute of International Studies Dr Ning Shengnan, former Ambassador Serajul Islam and Dhaka University Professor Dr Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir comprised the panel of discussants.
3 years ago
Protect consumption, promote employment in next budget: Debapriya
Consumption protection and employment promotion should be the dual priorities of the upcoming national budget during the Covid-19 pandemic, said renowned economist and public policy analyst Dr Debapriya Bhattacharya.
To this end, the government has to give direct and substantive fiscal support to the traditionally disadvantaged communities as well as to the “new poor”, he said in an interview with UNB about the national budget for fiscal year 2021-22.
Dr Debapriya said the new budget also needs to promote domestic market-oriented industrial diversification and introduce a universal social protection system.
He said the expansionary fiscal policy should focus not on maximising the public expenditures for health exigencies, but also put more disposable income in the hands of disadvantaged households and investable resources in the hands of micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs).
Also read: Dhaka, Delhi need much stronger framework for future economic ties: Debapriya
The international noted economist said the new budget should neither increase tax rate nor apply new taxes, but should focus on improving efficiency of tax administration to prevent tax leakages and evasion, stop undue exemptions and definitely discontinue favouring black money launderers.
Core Budget with a longer time frame
Noting that one of the fundamental issues for the next budget will be dealing with the protracted impact of the Covid-19, Dr Debapriya said the last budget was done under the incorrect assumption that the pandemic would vanish within 3-4 months and then normalcy would be restored in the economy.
“At that time, we pointed out that even if health emergencies subside, socio-economic impact of pandemic will be felt much longer. Now 12 months later we’re in the midst of another Covid peak,” he said.
The basic point is that, under the circumstances, public expenditure choices and other fiscal decisions within one-year time-frame is not appropriate from policy perspectives, he added.
“So, a “core budget” focused on defeating the pandemic and recovering from the fall-outs demand a time policy frame of at least two-three years. This has to be aligned with the current Five Year Plan (2021-25), SDG delivery schedule and climate action commitments,” he said adding that a core budget is essential identifying major policy instruments which will ensure the reprioritised development outcomes.
Also read: Development community needs to support graduating LDC: Debapriya
“The development variable needs to be reprioritised from the point of view of employment retention and generation and no less important will be protection of consumption, otherwise poverty rate and inequality will increase further,” he said.
Favouring an expansionary fiscal policy, Dr Debapriya emphasised the need for accelerating public expenditures and improving supply of liquidity to boost domestic demand for goods and services.
Spending more is the challenge
Dr Debapriya Bhattacharya said the major challenge for the government is that even if it wants to enhance public expenditures, it is not being able to do so. One critically constraining factor is this regard is the stagnating (if not falling) tax-GDP ratio. Low utilisation of foreign aid is further increasing resource pressure.
However, the government’s inability to spend whatever money it has is due to low absorptive capacity of the public agencies, he said, adding that poor quality of public expenditures remains a major concern too. Streamlining the implementation of public expenditure portfolio will be an overriding priority for the next budget, mentioned Dr Debapriya.
Mentioning that there has been the marginal increase in the budget deficit (the deficit is now around 5 percent of GDP) over the last two-three years, he said, “In the financing of the budget deficit, we are using costlier domestic borrowing rather than international concessional funds. “And the utilised international funds are mostly less concessional, together resulting in increased debt burden”.
The public policy analyst said that the post-Covid mid-term recovery programme demands structural reforms to make the fiscal framework efficient and effective. “The recovery demands a high-energy fiscal multiplier effect.t. For that the government also not only has to spend more, but it will also have to give the money to those people who have greater propensity to consume and invest,” said the macro-economist.
Need larger direct fiscal transfer
“So, the very important part in the Covid recovery would be in the future to have much more targeted fiscal transfer along with food support for the traditionally marginalised communities as well as to the newly disadvantages households (the so-called new poor)” he said. He held that while the government announced programmes are in the right direction, they are miniscule in comparison to need and often implemented in a deficient way.
Dr Debapriya maintained that overwhelming portion of the disbursed pandemic-related public support (stimulus package) went to the big businesses, while a small portion to MSMEs, informal sector and other disadvantaged communities and activities.
It is obvious that these people will not be able to off-set the adverse fall-outs of the pandemic through monetary policy measures including the ones with interest rate subsidy. Thus, it calls for food support and direct cash transfer in larger volume through effective digital financial inclusion, he opined.
Use domestic demand to accelerate growth
Given the emerging global situation and our recent Covid-time experience, Bangladesh should boost its aggregate demand for GDP growth by aggressively stimulating domestic demand. “For example, we need to invest further in agro-based manufacturing, post-harvest mechanisation in agriculture, digital platform-based activities,” he said.
Also read: New conversation on int'l dev cooperation needed: Debapriya
“Since the international market will remain volatile in near future, we would need to urgently improve our domestic productive capacity to diversify our labour-intensive manufacturing base for inclusive growth,” said the economist. Upcoming budget should deploy fiscal measures to promote labour productivity across sectors.
Time for universal social protection
Dr Debapriya said the Covid has given us the lesson that Bangladesh needs to move from the safety net programme for the poor to universal social security for all citizens. “We need to move from mere expansion of social safety net programmes to a universal social protection scheme as majority of Bangladesh's population is without any public or private support system,” he added.
The recognised economist pointed out that the except the government employees, the poor who are under the social safety net and a small number of private service holders who have pension schemes, the overwhelming rest of the population are not under any public or private social insurance scheme. “So, it will be only opportune for this year’s national budget to initiate a universal social protection scheme for all citizens of Bangladesh.”
3 years ago