The visiting International Monetary Fund (IMF) delegation has advised Bangladesh Bank to disclose detailed and complete information regarding bad and risky loans fin the public interest. Meeting sources said that the visiting IMF delegation gave this suggestion in the meeting held with the BB officials on Sunday (April 28).  In the meeting, the IMF asked to make the financial health of the banks and the inspection report open to the customers. At the same time, it urged to increase the number of inspections to prevent irregularities-corruption and loan scams. Officials concerned in the meeting said that bad loans or risky assets are increasing in banks due to various irregularities including big loan scams. Several banks have weakened which also acknowledged by the BB Governor.  Therefore, the IMF believes that the deposits of those banks which are in trouble are also at risk. In such a situation, the global lender suggested that the banks should disclose the full report of risky assets to the customers.  Read more: DUJ, DRU, TIB condemn ban on journalists entering Bangladesh Bank According to the IMF Officials, “If these reports are published, the customers will be able to make informed decisions about keeping their deposits.” In the meeting, the IMF sought to know whether the central bank's inspection of banks' financial health is continuing or not. Clarification has also been sought as to whether inspection reports are disclosed to customers or not.  In addition, the IMF delegation suggested increasing the quality and number of inspections to prevent irregularities, corruption and loan scams, sources said. When asked about the meeting with the BB, the executive director and spokesperson of the BB Mesbaul Haque said that the meetings with the IMF are ongoing. This meeting will be held step by step till May 8. He did not agree to make any comment other than that and said the details will be given in future. Read more: Islamic Banking in Bangladesh: Commendable contribution to the country’s economic growth

Bangladesh's Finance Ministry is tackling what it identifies as one of its most formidable challenges: significantly amplifying public expenditure to catalyse sustained growth within the private sector.  An official document from the ministry underscores that, in comparison to other economies, Bangladesh's government spending as a percentage of GDP markedly trails, thereby emphasising the urgency to augment investment. Data from the World Economic Forum and the IMF (as of April 2023), reveal Bangladesh's public expenditure at 13.1% of its GDP, a figure that stands in stark contrast to countries like France at 58.5%, Sweden at 46.8%, and even neighbouring India at 28.8%. This discrepancy highlights the room for growth in Bangladesh's fiscal strategy. The government, aiming to elevate GDP growth and living standards, views the expansion of its expenditure as crucial. This ambition is supported by the progressive implementation of reforms in Public Financial Management. Historically, the government has gradually increased its spending relative to GDP, signaling a positive trajectory. Interest rate for April set at 13.55%, for consumer loans add 1%   Outlined in the 'Medium Term Macroeconomic Policy Statement (2023-24 to 2025-26)' from the Finance Division, the government's medium-term strategy is geared towards securing inclusive and high growth. This strategy is aligned with Bangladesh's Vision 2041, the 8th Five Year Plan, and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), focusing on priority sectors including infrastructure, industrial production, food security, job creation, healthcare, and education among others. In anticipation of the demands of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR), significant allocations have been dedicated to human resource development, particularly in education and skills training. The fiscal projections set public expenditure targets at 15.2% for the 2023-24 fiscal year, 15.4% for 2024-25, and 16.2% for 2025-26. The document further highlights Bangladesh's progression to a lower-middle-income country, with aspirations to attain upper-middle-income status by 2031. This ambition aligns with the developmental targets set within the 8th Five Year Plan and reflects the government's commitment to resuming the rapid economic growth witnessed pre-COVID-19 and pre-Russia-Ukraine war. Banks to remain open on April 5, 6, and 7 for payment of garment workers’ salary, bonus In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the government prioritised life and livelihood protection, adopting an expansionary fiscal policy and channeling additional funds into critical sectors.  Despite the global political and economic instability, these measures have begun to show promise, with expectations of returning to pre-pandemic growth levels and policies aimed at promoting pro-poor and inclusive growth. As Bangladesh looks forward, the Finance Ministry is set on formulating strategies to enhance pro-poor growth, stimulate both domestic and international private investment, bolster public investment, curb inflation, generate employment, and alleviate the balance of payment pressures. These objectives underscore a holistic approach to not only recovering from recent global challenges but also setting a solid foundation for long-term, sustainable development.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has sounded an alarm, indicating that nearly 40% of global employment could be endangered by the burgeoning influence of artificial intelligence (AI). This stark warning, reported by CNN, underscores the seismic shifts anticipated in the global job market. IMF Chief Kristalina Georgieva, in a recent blog post, stressed the critical necessity for governments worldwide to fortify social safety nets and roll out comprehensive retraining programmes. This proactive approach aims to mitigate AI's potentially dramatic effects on employment. Davos 2024: Can AI provide solutions, as Global leaders confront $88.1 trillion debt crisis? Highlighting a key concern, Georgieva pointed out the potential for AI adoption to aggravate existing inequalities, a trend that requires immediate policy intervention to avert escalating social tensions. This issue is set to be a central theme at the upcoming annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, where AI's role in the economy will be a focal point. According to the IMF's analysis, advanced economies might witness the most significant impact, with up to 60% of jobs at risk. Although AI promises to enhance productivity in about half of these roles, the remainder faces a stark reality of diminishing demand, lowered wages, and potential unemployment as AI assumes roles traditionally held by humans. UN chief warns of risks of artificial intelligence Emerging markets and lower-income countries are not immune to these challenges. Here, 40% and 26% of jobs, respectively, may feel the impact. Georgieva raised concerns about these regions' lack of infrastructure and skilled workforces, factors that intensify the risk of AI deepening existing economic divides. Georgieva also warned of an escalating risk of social unrest, especially if younger, tech-savvy workers leverage AI for productivity gains, leaving their older counterparts struggling to adapt. China warns of artificial intelligence risks, calls for beefed-up national security measures At Davos, the implications of AI on employment are a key discussion topic. Prominent figures, including Sam Altman, CEO of ChatGPT-maker OpenAI, and Microsoft's Satya Nadella, are slated to address the impact of generative AI technologies. Despite these challenges, Georgieva did not overlook AI's positive potentials, noting its capacity to significantly boost global output and incomes. She argued that with thoughtful planning, AI could be a transformative force for the global economy, stressing the importance of channeling its benefits for the collective good. Amidst concerns over job displacement, some economists are optimistic, suggesting that AI's widespread adoption may ultimately enhance labor productivity. This could potentially lead to a 7% annual increase in global GDP over the next decade.

Despite relaxed conditions for net reserves by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Bangladesh could not meet the foreign exchange reserves target at the end of 2023. According to the IMF loan documents, the actual reserves were supposed to be USD $17.78 billion at the end of December 2023. However, as the year ended, the actual reserves stood at about $16.75 billion. Not much difference between political parties' views on energy situation: CPD Bangladesh Bank could not meet the reserves target as per IMF conditions by September-end as well. Later, the global lender reduced the reserves conservation target at the request of Bangladesh. Even the revised target could not be achieved by the end of December 2023. According to IMF's new conditions, the real reserves are expected to be $19.26 billion in March and $20.10 billion in June 2024. However, financial sector stakeholders cannot determine whether this goal will be achieved. The real reserve is the reserve that is calculated after excluding the SDR of the IMF, the dollars kept as foreign exchange clearing by the banks, and the dollars deposited for the Asian Clearing Union (ACU) bills. Apart from this, there are two other accounts of reserve. One of them is total reserve. Another IMF accounting system is reserves maintained under BPM6. At the end of the year 2023, total forex reserves increased to $27 billion. However, what the IMF considers is only net or real reserves. Md Mezbaul Haque, spokesperson and executive director of Bangladesh Bank told UNB that the central bank worked to keep the reserves above $17 billion, as per the IMF-set target. Former IMF economist Dr Ahsan H Mansur told UNB that it is unexpected that the IMF-set target could not be met even after reducing the previous target. Habiganj-2: JaPa candidate withdraws from election citing 'lack of fair environment' He also doubted that Bangladesh Bank will be able to maintain IMF’s foreign exchange reserves target in March 2024, if the central bank does not change its policies.

Bangladesh’s foreign exchange reserves continued to fall with the usable reserves standing now at USD $ 15.82 billion as per IMF guideline, according to banking sources familiar with the development on Tuesday (November 28, 2023). During the period of the COVID-19 pandemic two years ago, the reserves had soared to $48 billion, thanks to greater inflow of remittances amid reduced import demand. The reserves started decreasing since the eased import restrictions and impact of the Russia-Ukraine war. Also read: Forex reserves below $20 billion after paying ACU The latest foreign exchange report of Bangladesh Bank (BB) revealed that the country's reserves on 23 November stood at $19.52 billion based on the IMF formula (Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual) or BPM6. As per the formula, the net reserves will be $3.7 billion less than the total reserve amount, the BB sources said. The BB spokesperson Mezbaul Haque in this regard told UNB that foreign exchange from reserves is spent and deposited every day. Also read: IMF relaxes forex reserve and revenue targets for $4.70 billion loan It is a continuous process of a country, he said advising common people not to panic at the news of decreasing foreign exchange. In July, Bangladesh started calculating its foreign reserves according to a formula suggested by the International Monetary Fund – BPM6. Following the new calculation, Bangladesh's gross foreign exchange reserves that time dropped by $26.44bn to $23.56bn. Also read: Bangladesh stands on the edge of deep ditch before the polls: Dr Debapriya

Despite demand being nearly half of electricity generation capacity, the government of Bangladesh continues to extend the tenure of costly rental power plants. The latest decision for extension of contract for a gas-based rental power plant was made in the Cabinet Committee on Government Purchase on November 8. As per the decision, a 55 MW gas-based rental power plant of Precision Energy Ltd. will get an extension of 5 years to their existing contract with the state-owned Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB). Under the Power Purchase Agreement (PPA), the BPDB will buy electricity from the plant at a tariff rate of US Cent 5.7 (equivalent to about Tk 6) per kilowatt hour while it has been buying electricity from base-load plants at around half the price.  Read: Despite surplus electricity, contracts of 10 rental power plants extended in four months For instance, the government has been purchasing electricity from Summit-GE's Bibiyana 450 MW gas-fired power project at US 3.32 cents per kilowatt-hour, with a contract for a period of 22 years. The government approved a PPA in October 2021 under which Consortium of (1) Edra Power Holdings Sdn Bhd, Malaysia and (2) Winnievision Power Ltd, Bangladesh, will set up the 660 MW base-load combined cycle plant and the BPDB will purchase electricity from the plant over a contract period of 22 years at a levelised power tariff of US 3.679 Cents (equivalent to Tk 2.94) per kilowatt hour to be run by local gas. The move for continuing the extension of rental and quick rental power plants' contracts raised the eyebrows of the energy experts. Many experts and power industry insiders believe that such a move to continue entertaining the costly rental power plants will increase the burden on the government for more subsidies, at a time when the sector has already been facing huge capacity payments' obligation with surplus capacity of electricity generation reaching about 50 percent.    Read: Power flow set up from Payra plant to Rampal sub-station Last year, the government extended the contracts of at least 10 rental power plants with a new provision of “No Electricity, No Payment” but kept a fund allocation of Tk 6,564.08 crore to pay the owners of the rental power plants. This time also Tk 1205.40 crore was kept as allocation while approving the latest extension proposal of Precision Energy's 55 MW Ashuganj gas-fired rental power plant which will be paid in in next 5 years.   According to the Power Division’s official statistics, as of September 13, 2023, the country's power generation capacity was 27,834 MW including off-grid renewable and captive power, while the highest generated in a day was 15,648 MW. The BPDB official data shows the country generated 14,021 MW on September 26, while covering the excess demand by resorting to load shedding of 113 MW. Read:  5 rental power plants with 457 MW get 2-year extension The demand was decreasing with the coming winter and the country's power demand was recorded to be 10,954 MW on November 8 while on-grid installed capacity was showing 25,339 MW meaning that the surplus capacity was more than double at 14,385 MW. State Minister for Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Nasrul Hamid, however, defended the extension of the rental power plants’ contracts saying that the deals were extended for “emergency necessity” to tackle the current situation when last year 10 rental power plants' contracts were extended. “As there is a gas shortage, we have to run liquid-fuel based rental and quick rental power plants on full capacity to meet the demands," he had told UNB. He also said these plants don’t oblige the government to make 'capacity payment' - i.e. payment for unused electricity, that was the case with some earlier contracts. “As a result, the cost of electricity from these extended rental power plants came down by 30-40 percent from the original cost," Nasrul Hamid said. The government documents show that of the approved 5 plants in March last year, three belong to Summit Group, one belongs to Dutch-Bangla Group and one to Orion Group. 'Admit the mistake first' About the country's growing surplus electricity and extension of rental power plants, vice president of Consumer Association of Bangladesh (CAB) Prof M Shamsul Alam said: “There will be a big indiscipline in the power sector as pressure for private sector’s capacity payment will continue to go up while import of primary fuel will be increasing. Finally, it will lead to energy insecurity." Read: Deal period with rental, quick rental power plant owners can’t be extended: BPDB Chairman In such a situation, he said, the only way-out is that the government has to admit first it has done a mistake by giving permission to the private sector for excessive power generation without consideration of the demand and then change the current policy and strategy. Otherwise, the situation will be more difficult to manage as pressure from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is coming to raise electricity tariff again. If so, it will further push up inflation, he added.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has relaxed several targets including foreign exchange reserves, revenue collection, automatic price adjustment of fuel for the $4.70 billion loan package for Bangladesh. At the beginning of this year, the IMF had set forex reserves target at $25.34 billion by September and $26.81 billion by June next year as conditions for the loan package. According to BPM6 – reserve calculation method – Bangladesh’s forex reserves stand at $21.15 billion. Bangladesh urged IMF to downsize required reserves to $20 billion for next loan instalment, says official On a net basis, this amount has further decreased to below $18 billion. In this situation, the Finance Division officials requested the IMF to relax the target for forex reserves. Considering the request, the IMF has relaxed the target. Bangladesh has committed to keep the reserves at $18.4 billion at the end of December this year, and at $20 billion at the end of June next year. IMF delegation meets BGMEA President to discuss challenges and prospects of RMG sector Last Tuesday and Wednesday, the visiting IMF delegation discussed the issues with the relevant officials of the Finance Division of the Ministry of Finance. Sources in the Finance Division said that after discussion, IMF agreed on being flexible on some conditions. Finance Secretary Md. Khairuzzaman Majumder led the meeting on behalf of the government. The IMF mission was led by Rahul Anand, head of the IMF’s Asia-Pacific division. IMF team holds meeting with Power Division, discusses subsidy

Bangladesh has now requested the International Monetary Fund to lower the requirement of foreign exchange reserves at $20 billion as a condition of releasing the second installment of the $4.7 billion loans, an official of Bangladesh Bank confirmed this on Monday (October 16, 2023). The request was made to the visiting IMF delegation that reviewed with the officials the progress in meeting its conditions. Read: Myanmar ambassador meets with FBCCI, keen to start direct flight Despite different measures taken by including cutting unnecessary and luxury goods imports, in the last three months, gross reserves declined by $2.58 billion. Two main sources of foreign exchange earnings –inward remittances flow saw a record decline to $1.34 billion in September and export earnings failed to achieve the target. Considering the situation the central bank proposed to the IMF mission led by Rahul Anand to revise the reserves down to $20 billion. Under the terms of the $4.7 billion IMF loan, the actual reserves were supposed to be maintained at $24.46 billion last June and $25.30 billion in September. At the end of December, Bangladesh must maintain at least $26.81 billion in net reserves. Read: PGCB, GIZ set up lab to advance country’s clean energy transition  The net forex reserves are now less than $18 billion, according to the calculations of Dr Zahid Hussain, a former lead economist of the World Bank's Dhaka office. However, the IMF also suggested that BB fix the exchange rate of US dollars on competitive market price, which is now being set by the Bangladesh Foreign Exchange Dealers’ Association (BAFEDA) in the concentration of the BB. The central bank earlier relaxed the exchange rate of the US dollar gradually and now the official exchange rate is Tk112 per dollar. Economist Dr Ahsan H Mansur said that Bangladesh has to maintain strict monitoring of trade-based money laundering along with cutting unnecessary imports to check the downslide. Read: IMF lowers growth forecast for current fiscal to 6 percent

After the World Bank did it last week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) today (October 11, 2023) revised downward its growth forecast for the Bangladesh economy in the 2023-24 fiscal. The IMF lowered its projection to 6.0 percent from 6.5 percent. The World Bank last week projected its new growth figure for the Bangladesh economy in 2023-24 as 5.6 percent, down from its previous projection of 6.2 percent. IMF outlook worsens for a 'limping' world economy. Mideast war poses new uncertainty The IMF also said Bangladesh's economy grew 6 percent in the 2022-23 fiscal, in its flagship World Economic Outlook publication, released globally on Tuesday. The global lender revised upward its projections for Bangladesh's growth to 6 percent for the fiscal year 2022-23 from its previous forecast of 5.5 percent. IMF satisfied with BBS for efforts to meet conditions: Official

The government of Bangladesh is hoping to return the economy to its pre-COVID growth momentum by the end of the current fiscal (2023-24), although that presents a significant challenge in the face of a clutch of economic headwinds. The government’s vision for economic recovery is outlined in the "Medium Term Macroeconomic Policy Statement 2023-24 to 2025-26," prepared by the Macroeconomy Wing of the Finance Division, under the Finance Ministry. It maintains that with the onset of the pandemic in 2020, the economy was knocked off its fast-paced growth trajectory for large parts of the last three years. The first confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Bangladesh were reported in March 2020, less than three months after the outbreak in Wuhan. Recently published quarterly GDP data (in keeping with a condition set by the IMF) bears this out. It reveals that the economy contracted by a massive 7.86 percent in the last quarter of the 2019-20 fiscal (April to June 2020), as the virus spread throughout the globe. Read more: Financing, technology and innovation needed for just transition to greener economy: Shahriar Alam According to the quarterly data released retrospectively by the Bureau of Statistics (BBS) last month, GDP had grown by between 6.5 to 8 percent in the first three quarters of 2019-20. That reflects the extent to which the wind was knocked out of the economy by the negative growth (contraction) in the fourth quarter. The slump induced by Covid would keep economic performance depressed through the first two quarters of the next fiscal (2020-21). It wasn’t until the 3Q (January to March, 2021) that the first signs of a recovery would become visible. As the 2021-22 fiscal kicked in, Bangladesh looked ready to put Covid-19 behind it, having implemented a successful vaccination programme and lifted lockdown restrictions. The economy rallied robustly, and GDP growth touched 10 percent in the third quarter (January to March 2022). Yet even as the recovery was underway, the seeds for it to stumble were sown halfway across the globe, with Russia going to war in Ukraine in February 2022. The resulting volatility in international energy markets and supply chain disruptions would knock the momentum out again, of the country’s post-Covid recovery. Read more: World Bank forecasts Sri Lankan economy to grow by 1.7% in 2024 Although there was nothing like the contraction precipitated by Covid-19, the economy did experience a severe slowdown in the last quarter of FY22, slipping to just 2.6 percent from the previous quarter’s high of 10 percent. “Bangladesh also braced for impacts on its economy. However, actual data shows that Bangladesh did impressively even during the height of the Covid-19 outbreak and is expected to return to pre-Covid growth trajectory by the end of FY 2023-24,” the statement surmises. If everything goes according to plan and ‘assumptions hold’, it says that 8 percent GDP growth rate can be attained again in 2025-26. “Therefore, the deviation of the actual from the planned growth envisaged in the 8th FYP (Five Year Plan) remained small,” it said. Read more: Bangladesh economy hit hard by Ukraine war The Macroeconomic Policy Statement mentions capital accumulation is key for development and hence the government aims to foster private investment along with public investment towards fulfilment of its goals.. Total investment in FY 2021-22 stood at 32 percent of GDP in which the contribution of the private and the public sectors were 24.5 and 7.5 percent, respectively. To achieve the long and medium-term growth targets, the level of investment will need to be increased further. The statement points out that there is room to increase the implementation rate of public investment. If the pace of implementation of development projects can be increased, the required level of investment can be attained. “Recognising this, the government has taken steps to bring about some structural changes in both project design and implementation levels,” it says in the statement. Read more: BGMEA-Circle Economy ink MoU to accelerate garment, textile sector’s transition towards circular economy The Finance Division document said that the Russia-Ukraine war has put global energy supplies at risk. Russia is a major global supplier of energy and hence when the war broke out, commodity prices spiked fast. Bangladesh started to suffer from this like almost all other countries. By December 2022, point-to-point inflation rose to 8.7 percent and then further rose to 9.3 percent by March 2023. However, global commodity prices are already falling, and central banks have raised policy rates and because of this it is expected that inflation will come down in the coming months. The IMF has projected that the measures taken by the governments will help reduce inflation in the medium-term. The Finance Division has projected that average inflation will fall significantly to 6.0 percent in 2023-24, although there has been no indication of it through the first quarter (July to September). Read more: Bangladesh Budget 2023-24 passed in parliament In order to tame inflation and protect the incomes of the poor, the government has emphasised increasing the domestic production of essential items, while gradually tightening monetary policy. The document says that food inflation hurts the poor the most. Keeping this in mind, the government through various measures, including subsidies and incentives, encouraged the growth of agricultural output. To support the agriculture sector, disbursement of credit to the sector has been increased. By the end of February 2023, the disbursement of agricultural credit and non-farm rural credit amounted to Tk. 210.66 billion in the first 8 months of the last fiscal, which was almost 14 percent higher, year on year. Read more: Why inflation persists at a higher level in Bangladesh With the help of supportive policies of the government, the general index of industrial production (medium and large-scale manufacturing) has been on the rise, reflecting expanded industrial production. Dr Masrur Reaz, a prominent economist and public policy analyst, believes it would be very challenging to regain the pre-Covid momentum within the current fiscal, since a number of macroeconomic indicators have become unstable. Talking to UNB, he suggested the government focus on stabilising the macroeconomic situation first, which would make the economy more sustainable in the long run. Dr Reaz pointed out that high inflation, severe foreign exchange/dollar crisis preventing, among other things, opening of LCs, and the fluctuating value of domestic currency taka, should be resolved first. Read more: Businesses should get opportunities to turn around before wholesale declaration of loan defaulters: FBCCI President “To bring the economy back to its pre-Covid growth rate, these issues should be resolved first, which itself would be very challenging and difficult in a short time,” he opined. Explaining further, Dr Reaz said: “The time is to stabilise the economy rather than focus on growth. In the long run, the economy will grow through reducing the high rate of non-performing loans, keeping inflation within reasonable limits and achieving exchange rate stability.”