United News of Bangladesh

Bangladesh’s overall inflation rose slightly in November and rice remained the single largest contributor to food inflation, accounting for 40.28 per cent, according to the Monthly Economic Update and Outlook released by the General Economics Division (GED) of the Planning Ministry. The government report said general inflation increased to 8.29 per cent in November from 8.17 per cent in October. Food inflation rose to 7.36 per cent from 7.08 per cent, while non-food inflation remained broadly stable at around 9 per cent. Overall rice inflation fell to 12.26 per cent in November from 13.77 per cent in October, with medium rice declining to 10.96 per cent, fine rice to 15.43 per cent and coarse rice to 11.04 per cent. Read more: Rice procurement faces disruption due to 0.5% source tax Despite the downward trend, rice prices remained elevated and continued to exert significant pressure on food inflation. Fish and dry fish contributed 40.77 percent to food inflation, slightly higher than the previous month. Contributions from meat, edible oil and fat declined, while milk, cheese and eggs recorded a modest increase and vegetables continued to have a strong disinflationary impact, though the negative contribution eased in November. At a detailed level, inflationary contributions from all major rice varieties declined. Among protein items, beef, hilsa and pangash fish showed higher inflationary pressure, while soybean oil and liquid milk eased. Potato and onion continued to post negative contributions, with potato remaining strongly disinflationary. The report noted that the gap between price inflation and wage inflation narrowed in October but widened slightly in November. Govt approves import of 1 lakh mt rice from India, Pakistan In November, price inflation stood at 8.29 per cent compared to wage inflation of 8.04 per cent, indicating continued pressure on real incomes despite partial adjustment through wage growth. On the monetary front, bank deposits reached Tk 19.24 crore in October, registering a year-on-year growth of 9.62 per cent, reflecting sustained depositor confidence. Credit growth moderated, with public sector credit growth slowing to 21.43 per cent and private sector credit growth easing slightly to 6.23 per cent. Total domestic credit growth decelerated to 9.62 per cent in October. Weighted average interest rate (WAIR) spreads varied across banking groups. Foreign commercial banks recorded the highest spread at 8.88 per cent while specialised and development banks posted the lowest at 3.37 per cent. State-owned and private commercial banks showed similar spreads of around 5.6 per cent, a level the GED said is desirable for improving banking sector efficiency. Revenue collection by the National Board of Revenue (NBR) fell short of the monthly target in November 2025 although it posted double-digit year-on-year growth. Govt to procure 50,000 mt of non-basmati parboiled rice, 80,000 mt fertiliser Against a monthly target of Tk 36,326 crore, collections stood at Tk 29,658 crore, achieving 83.95 per cent of the target. However, revenue increased by Tk 3,688 crore or 14.2 per cent compared to November 2024. The report said Annual Development Programme (ADP) utilisation improved year-on-year during July–November of FY2025-26, but overall implementation remained sluggish. Despite higher spending, utilisation continued to lag behind targets due to administrative bottlenecks, slow approvals and procurement delays. Bangladesh’s external sector showed strong performance in November. Remittance inflows reached a record USD 2.89 billion while export earnings stood at about USD 3.89 billion, driven largely by the ready-made garments (RMG) sector. Foreign exchange reserves peaked for the year, with gross reserves at approximately USD 32.34 billion and BPM6 reserves at USD 27.58 billion, strengthening external stability. RMG exports accounted for over 80 per cent of total export earnings underscoring continued dependence on the sector and the need for diversification. Read more: Rice biggest driver of October’s food inflation in Bangladesh: GED The GED also highlighted a growing divergence between the real effective exchange rate and the bilateral taka–US dollar rate, indicating potential real appreciation pressures and risks to external competitiveness.

The government has expected that inflation in the country will fall below 7 percent by June 2026 ‘due to its contractionary monetary policy and austerity measures. The expectation was expressed at a high-level meeting at the state guest house Jamuna on the country’s overall economic progress and budget expenditure on Monday under the leadership of Chief Adviser Prof Muhammad Yunus, according to a statement of the Chief Adviser’s press wing. Finance Adviser Salehuddin Ahmed, Planning Adviser Wahiduddin Mahmud and Bangladesh Bank Governor Ahsan H Mansur attended the meeting. The meeting reviewed key macroeconomic indicators, including inflation, wage growth, agricultural production, the financial and external sectors, remittance inflows, imports and the opening of letters of credit. Read more: Bangladesh inflation rises to 8.29% in November The 12-month average general inflation rate fell below 9 percent in November 2025 for the first time since June 2023 and on a point-to-point basis, inflation crossed 9 percent in March 2023, reaching 9.33 percent, it said. The point-to-point inflation dropped below 9 percent in June 2025 and declined further to 8.29 percent in November 2025. Regarding wage growth, the meeting observed that in recent years the gap between inflation and wage growth had been wide, resulting in a decline in real income. In recent months of the current fiscal year, the gap has narrowed significantly. In November 2025, point-to-point inflation and wage growth stood at 8.29 percent and 8.04 percent respectively, compared with average rates of 9.02 percent and 7.04 percent in fiscal year 2022-23. On agriculture, the meeting noted that appropriate incentives and management led to a good Boro harvest in the last fiscal year, while favorable conditions so far indicate the possibility of a good Aman harvest this season. Read more: Rice biggest driver of October’s food inflation in Bangladesh: GED As a result, the government is expected to achieve its food grain procurement target in the current fiscal year. As of December 15, 2025, Aman rice production reached 16.095 million metric tonnes, and officials expect the final output to exceed the target once harvesting is completed. Although Aus rice production fell slightly short of the target, total production increased by 7.20 percent compared to fiscal year 2024-25, said the Press Wing. Imbalances in various economic indicators have already moved towards a more stable position, said the statement. On the financial and external sectors, the meeting was informed that gross foreign exchange reserves stood at 32.57 billion US dollars as of December 18, 2025, up from around 25 billion dollars in August 2024. The reserve levels are expected to rise further due to a more stable exchange rate, increased remittance inflows and a significant rise in interest rates in the financial sector, it added. Regarding the current account, it was noted that Bangladesh had recorded consecutive deficits from fiscal year 2016-17 to 2023-24, amounting to 18.7 billion dollars, 11.6 billion dollars and 6.6 billion dollars in fiscal years 2021-22, 2022-23 and 2023-24 respectively. Due to improved financial management and measures to curb money laundering, the deficit narrowed to just 139 million dollars at the end of fiscal year 2024-25. In the July to October period of the current fiscal year the deficit stood at 749 million dollars. On remittances, the meeting noted that overseas employment for 500,000 workers was secured during July to November of the current fiscal year, compared with 397,000 during the same period last year. During the same period, remittance inflows amounted to 13.04 billion dollars, marking a 17.14 percent increase year on year. Import growth during July to November of fiscal year 2024-25 was negative at 1.2 percent but rose to 6.1 percent during the same period of fiscal year 2025-26, it said. Read more: Bangladesh Bank keeps policy rate unchanged amid inflation fears ahead of election and Ramadan On letters of credit, the meeting noted that the growth in opening LCs for capital machinery was negative 32.8 percent during July to October 2024 but increased to 27.7 percent in the same period of the current fiscal year. Similarly, growth in opening LCs for industrial raw materials rose from 10.1 percent to 40.98 percent over the same period.

Bangladesh’s general point-to-point inflation rate rose slightly to 8.29 %in November 2025 from 8.17 % in October, according to the latest data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). The modest increase in overall inflation was primarily driven by a rise in food prices. Read more: Bangladesh economy shows external stability despite internal challenges: Report Food inflation edged up to 7.36 % in November from 7.08 % in October. In contrast, non-food inflation eased marginally to 9.08 %in November from 9.13 %  in the previous month. The BBS data also indicated a slight uptick in inflation in both rural and urban areas during the month. Read more: Rice biggest driver of October’s food inflation in Bangladesh: GED

Rice alone contributed about 47 percent of total food inflation in October while vegetables posted a strong negative impact because of seasonal abundance, according to the latest Economic Update and Outlook for November 2025 prepared by the General Economics Division (GED). Protein items including beef, chicken and fish saw steady inflation during the month, driven by feed prices and transport costs, the report said. Overall inflation dropped to 8.17 percent in October 2025, from 10.87 percent a year earlier, driven almost entirely by a sharp fall in food inflation. Food inflation plunged from 12.66 percent in October 2024 to 7.08 percent in October 2025 as rice supply improved due to the Aman harvest, imports and public procurement. Read more: High price of rice in Bangladesh bucks the trend of easing inflation However, non-food inflation inched up to 9.13 percent, reflecting persistent pressure in housing, transport and healthcare—an indication that inflation remains far from under control. Election-related spending and possible disruptions during the transition are expected to add further pressure on inflation and the foreign exchange market, complicating stabilisation efforts, said the report. The report warns that large-scale dollar purchases by the central bank unless sterilized could fuel inflation and distort market-based exchange rate mechanisms. Bangladesh’s economic recovery depend heavily on political stability following the February national election and the next government’s willingness to carry out meaningful reforms, said the GED reprot. The report offers a cautiously optimistic view but warns that deep structural weaknesses along with the political transition period could constrain economic momentum. According to the analysis, the economy could regain pace if the election produces a clear political direction and the next government decisively undertakes long-delayed reforms, particularly in improving the business climate, stabilising the banking system, and ensuring fiscal and energy security. Without such reforms, the recovery may be short-lived, it said. Read more: Bangladesh economy in ‘waiting vortex’; experts urge credible elections The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has forecast around 5 percent GDP growth for FY26 following a sluggish period. Remittances and garment exports continue to provide much-needed resilience but the GED notes that the broader economic environment remains fragile as both investors and entrepreneurs appear to be “waiting” for political stability before committing to new ventures.= While bank deposits grew at nearly double-digit rates through August and September, private-sector credit growth fell to just 6.29 percent—the lowest in at least four years and well below the Bangladesh Bank’s FY26 target of 7.2 percent. High lending rates, cautious bank behaviour and political uncertainty have depressed investment appetite. Meanwhile, government borrowing from commercial banks surged 24.45 percent in September, raising concerns about crowding out private borrowers. Interest rate spreads also exposed deep structural distortions. Foreign commercial banks maintained spreads close to 9 percent—far higher than state-owned and private banks—highlighting issues such as high operational costs, non-performing loans and market concentration. Rising rice prices push food inflation higher in Bangladesh: Report Revenue collection in October 2025 fell short of the target by Tk 8,324 crore, achieving only 77.37 percent of the month’s goal. All major revenue streams—import duties, domestic VAT, and income tax—underperformed. Although collection was slightly higher than in October 2024, the growth of just 2.2 percent was described as “pessimistic” given inflationary pressures and increased public spending needs. ADP utilisation continues to lag despite marginal improvements. Up to October, utilisation stood at 8.33 percent, only a slight increase from 7.90 percent last year. Lower overall allocations and reduced spending under own-financing components indicate financial strain and weak project execution. The report notes that while utilisation rates improved marginally in some categories, the decline in total expenditure—from Tk 8,762 crore last year to Tk 7,720 crore this year—reflects ongoing bottlenecks in planning, fund release and implementation. Foreign exchange reserves improved significantly, rising from USD 24.35 billion in November 2024 to USD 32.34 billion in October 2025. BPM6 reserves also rose sharply, supported by stronger remittances and prudent reserve management. Bangladesh’s June inflation remains high with food inflation at 10.42% Remittances surged in the first four months of FY26, with each month outperforming the previous year and September recording the highest inflows. However, export earnings remained volatile. Exports peaked in July at USD 4.77 billion but suffered sharp declines in April and June. RMG exports mirrored these fluctuations, while non-RMG exports also experienced mid-year downturns. Imports especially capital machinery saw steep contractions year-on-year, signalling depressed investment demand. A slight month-on-month recovery in August and September suggests only tentative stabilisation. The real effective exchange rate (REER) appreciated notably, indicating eroding external competitiveness. Read more: Inflation in Bangladesh edges up to 8.36% in September

Bangladesh’s economy is caught in a debilitating ‘waiting vortex’ of stagnant investment, high inflation and weak business confidence, with experts saying only a credible and participatory election can restore stability and drive recovery. The prevailing consensus across the business and policy landscape is that the economy is currently ‘breathing, but unable to walk’ as it is paralysed by political uncertainty ahead of the general election expected next February. Business owners and entrepreneurs unanimously assert that new initiatives and investments are impossible without political stability and certainty. Professor Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir of Dhaka University, Liaquat Ali Bhuiyan, Senior Vice-President of the Real Estate and Housing Association of Bangladesh (REHAB), Inamul Haq Khan, Senior Vice-President of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), Anwar-ul-Alam Chowdhury (Parvez), President of the Bangladesh Chamber of Industries (BCI), and former Chief Economist of Bangladesh Bank Dr Mustofa K Mujeri talked to the UNB correspondent about the current economic situation in Bangladesh. Read more: Bangladesh’s reserves still remain above $31 billion after ACU payment The economy is sustained by political trust, and it is the government’s responsibility to restore that confidence, said economists, underscoring that without a stable political environment, the recovery process cannot begin. This sentiment is echoed by the country’s development partners. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reportedly linked the disbursement of the next tranche of its $4.7 billion loan to the formation of an elected government. Similarly, both domestic and foreign investors are reluctant to take risks, preferring instead to adopt a cautious ‘wait-and-see’ stance. Worrying Economic Indicators Private Sector Credit Growth: Loan growth to the private sector has dropped to around 6.5 per cent — roughly half the normal rate — signalling a sharp contraction in new business activity and entrepreneurship. Capital Machinery Imports: Imports of capital machinery, a key indicator of future industrial output, have declined by 25 per cent, casting a shadow over upcoming production and employment prospects. Inflation and Savings: Inflation has been persistently high, hitting 8.36 per cent in September 2025, hitting hard the purchasing power of ordinary citizens, with the sales of national savings certificates falling by over Tk 6,000 crore, making it clear that many are being forced to liquidate their savings. Foreign Investment: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) fell by 22 per cent in the first quarter of the current fiscal year, as international investors remain cautious — with some existing firms even scaling back their operations. Govt moves to make SMEs a driving force of economy: CA’s office “Investment is now not just an economic question, but a question of social confidence,” one analyst observed, noting that political instability and deteriorating law and order are heavily discouraging entrepreneurs. Social Costs and Unemployment The economic stagnation is inflicting a deep social toll, with experts warning of rising poverty and worsening unemployment. Professor Titumir cautioned that high inflation has “reduced the purchasing power of the common people, increased poverty, and may push another 30 lakh people below the extreme poverty line.” The country now faces a mounting unemployment crisis, with around 13 lakh jobless youths — including one in every three university graduates. Industry Leaders Demand Clarity Business leaders across key sectors have emphasised the urgent need to restore political and policy clarity. Liaquat Ali Bhuiyan said that new investment in manufacturing, real estate, banking, and services has “nearly stopped.” Inamul Haq Khan noted that foreign buyers and partners, including the IMF, have little confidence in a temporary setup. Dhaka’s economy driven by manufacturing sector with 56% share: DCCI “IMF and foreign stakeholders are waiting for the new government. Only then will confidence and investment surge,” he added. Path to Recovery Economists argue that the top priority for the current interim administration must be to hold a swift, credible, and widely accepted national election, paving the way for an elected government to take charge. Anwar-ul-Alam Chowdhury (Parvez) told UNB that clarity on the election timeline and assurance of a peaceful process are the most crucial prerequisites for restoring economic stability. Dr Mustofa K Mujeri observed that the economic environment will remain fragile as long as high interest rates persist and political uncertainty continues to limit capital flow. Ultimately, analysts suggest that the nation stands at a “historic juncture,” where it must either accept the current stagnation or move decisively towards a new economic model anchored in political stability and trust. Read more: IMF to decide Bangladesh’s next loan installment after formation of political govt: Adviser

The point-to-point inflation in Bangladesh edged up slightly to 8.36 percent in September, from 8.29 percent in August. According to data released by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) on Monday, the rate was significantly higher at 9.92 percent during the same month last year. Inflation has now remained above 8 percent for more than three years since August 2022. The BBS data shows that both food and non-food inflation increased in September. Food inflation rose to 7.64 percent from 7.60 percent in August, while non-food inflation climbed to 8.98 percent from 8.90 percent. Inflation falls to 8.29% in August, lowest in over 3 years A year earlier, in September 2024, food inflation stood at 10.40 percent and non-food inflation at 9.50 percent. Rural areas experienced slightly higher inflationary pressure than urban areas last month. Rural inflation rose to 8.47 percent in September from 8.39 percent in August. In the same month last year, it was 10.15 percent. In rural regions, food inflation edged up to 7.54 percent from 7.50 percent, while non-food inflation increased to 9.40 percent from 9.28 percent. In urban areas, overall inflation inched up to 8.28 percent in September from 8.24 percent the previous month. Urban food inflation rose to 7.94 percent from 7.87 percent, while non-food inflation moved slightly higher to 8.51 percent from 8.49 percent. Meanwhile, the BBS data shows that the general wage growth rate slipped to 8.02 percent in September from 8.15 percent in August. In September last year, the rate was 8.01 percent — marking the 44th consecutive month that wage growth has trailed behind inflation.  

Bangladesh’s economic outlook for August 2025 shows signs of stabilisation on the external front but troubling weaknesses in domestic investment, revenue collection and development spending, according to a government report. The latest monthly economic update by the General Economics Division (GED) under the Planning Ministry said inflation declined to 8.29 percent in August, the lowest since July 2022, after months of volatility that saw double-digit inflation from July to December 2024. Non-food inflation dropped below 9 percent for the first time in 20 months, helping offset a marginal rise in food prices. Food inflation stabilised at 7.6 percent for three consecutive months, a sharp improvement from the 14 percent peak in July 2024. Rice remains the single largest driver of food inflation, contributing 48.37 percent in August. Government procurement of 1.7 million tons of Boro rice, imports of half a million tons duty-free and higher distribution under public food schemes are expected to ease prices in the coming months. Still, GED noted that delays in real-time monitoring and policy response prevented earlier stabilisation. The report highlighted a robust performance in the external sector. Export earnings consistently crossed the $4 billion mark, hitting $4.77 billion in July 2025. The exchange rate remained stable at Tk 121–122 per USD, while foreign exchange reserves climbed from $24.86 billion in September 2024 to $31.17 billion in August 2025. This, according to GED, provided a solid cushion against trade shocks and debt obligations. Despite positive external indicators, the domestic financial sector showed deep stress. Private sector credit growth plunged to 6.49 percent in June 2025 — the lowest on record and far short of Bangladesh Bank’s target. Businesses remain reluctant to borrow amid high interest rates, political and economic uncertainty, and cautious bank lending. Commerce Adviser stresses surplus economy for sustainable growth By contrast, public sector credit rose sharply by 13.09 percent, driven by the government’s heavy reliance on bank borrowing to finance its fiscal deficit. This trend, GED warned, is effectively “crowding out” the private sector and undermining future investment and job creation. Revenue collection in August stood at Tk 27,162 crore, falling Tk 3,727 crore short of the target. While collections grew 17.6 percent year-on-year, the shortfall was mainly due to weaker import and income tax receipts. Only VAT at the local level showed improvement. The report flagged persistent revenue gaps as a key challenge in meeting the ambitious annual target of Tk 4,99,000 crore. Development spending remains another weak spot. ADP utilization dropped to 2.39 percent of allocation in the July–August period of FY26, down from 2.57 percent in the same period last year. Although August utilisation improved slightly year-on-year (1.71 percent vs 1.52 percent), GED noted that such low early-year implementation reflects structural bottlenecks, bureaucratic delays, and poor fund release capacity, raising the risk of back-loaded spending and inefficiency. While the decline in inflation and strengthening of reserves signal macroeconomic stability, GED cautioned that the domestic economy faces significant headwinds. Weak private investment, revenue shortfalls, and under-utilisation of development funds threaten to slow growth momentum. “The economy is showing resilience externally but risks remain high domestically. Without urgent measures to stimulate private credit, enhance revenue collection, and accelerate ADP implementation, medium-term growth prospects may weaken,” the report said.

In the bustling streets of Dhaka, countless lives teeter on the edge of survival, where each day’s earnings decide whether families eat or go hungry. Thirty-two-year-old Rina Begum sets up her modest stall near a busy bus stop, balancing two large pots on a makeshift wooden table as she sells puffed rice and fried snacks to rickshaw-pullers, day-labourers, and office-goers. On good days, she earns around Tk 500–600, but when rain falls or authorities force vendors off the streets, her earnings are halved. “The prices of oil, rice, and vegetables have doubled in the last two years, but my earnings remain the same. Sometimes I skip meals so that my children can eat,” she said, wiping sweat from her forehead as she fried ‘beguni’ in a sizzling pan. Rina’s story is far from unique. She is one of more than 6 crore Bangladeshis working in the informal sector, which constitutes nearly 85 per cent of the country’s workforce, according to the Labour Force Survey by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). Off-season watermelon farming brings bumper gains to Narail farmers From domestic helpers and construction workers to street vendors and transport operators, these millions form the invisible backbone of Bangladesh’s economy, yet they receive little recognition or protection. A joint study by Karmojibi Nari and FES Bangladesh, covering informal workers in all divisions, found that most are employed in retail and sales, agriculture and livestock, food and beverage services, transport and crafts. Nearly 69 per cent of these workers are aged between 25 and 44. Various studies estimate that the informal sector contributes roughly 40–43 per cent of Bangladesh’s GDP. Without these jobs, many would face unemployment or underemployment. Despite their critical role, informal workers remain largely unrecognised, without legal protection, social security, or support systems, especially amid rising inflation. Economists say inflation has hit them hardest. Professor Dr M Shariful Haque, Chairman of the Department of Economics and Banking at the International Islamic University Chittagong, explained that high food inflation sharply reduces the real incomes of informal workers, whose cash wages and small-business revenues are not indexed. “When food inflation spikes, they have no cushion. Their choices are between eating less, borrowing, or pulling their children out of school,” he said. Bangladesh’s leather sector stuck at $1bn; $5bn could be tapped: Experts Prof Haque added that the average income of informal workers ranges from Tk 10,000 to Tk 30,000, but these earnings have not kept pace with inflation, which reached 10.03 per cent in the 2024–25 fiscal  year, the highest in 14 years. Food inflation rose to 10.70 per cent, while non-food inflation stood at 9.47 per cent. In August, the inflation rate fell slightly to 8.29 per cent, the lowest in over three years. Rice prices, in particular, are exerting strong pressure on both food and overall inflation, according to the latest economic update from the General Economics Division (GED) of the Planning Commission under the Planning Ministry. The report noted that rice’s contribution to food inflation rose from 40 per cent in May to 51.55 per cent in July. Bangladesh is densely populated, with more than 64 per cent of the population aged 15 years and above. Of this adult population, 59 per cent are economically active, though there is no precise data on how many are employed in the informal economy or their exact contribution. Unlike formal workers, informal earners generally lack appointment letters, fixed wages, or legal recourse in cases of exploitation. Illness or injury can instantly wipe out their income. Sumon Ali, 32, begins each day by pulling his worn helmet over his head and pushing his old motorbike onto the streets, whispering a small prayer, “Let me earn enough today to keep the family running.” On a good day, he earns between Tk 700 and Tk 800 ferrying passengers across Dhaka, but after deducting fuel, mobile data, and commissions, he is left with barely Tk 400. Back pain and strained eyesight already warn him that he cannot continue indefinitely. Bridge without roads leaves thousands stranded in Rangpur’s Mithapukur Similarly, 45-year-old rickshaw puller Mizanur Rahman pedals slowly home to his one-room tin-shed in Kamrangirchar after earning Tk 700. His daily rent of Tk 150 and the cost of food for his family of five leave almost nothing for emergencies. “If the wheel breaks or I fall sick, my family goes hungry. No one helps us,” he said. Syed Sultan Uddin Ahmed, Executive Director of BILS and Chairman of the Labour Reform Commission, stressed that recognition and legal protection are essential. “Without these, it will not be possible to ensure the rights of domestic and other workers. They remain invisible in our legal and economic frameworks.” Reform Proposals Earlier this year, the Labour Reform Commission recommended sweeping changes, including a national minimum wage, extension of maternity benefits to informal women workers and wage reviews every three years instead of five. They also proposed contributory social insurance for informal earners and emergency sectoral funds to support workers during crises. The commission further suggested making appointment letters mandatory within fifteen days for both formal and informal workers and establishing a digital labour registration system to ensure recognition. Regarding wages, the commission recommended criteria for determining a national minimum wage, to be announced subsequently. Millions of workers in Bangladesh and South Asia survive in the informal economy, including domestic helpers, street vendors, bike riders, and garment subcontractor helpers. In Bangladesh, nearly 85 per cent of the workforce is informal, compared to around 80–82 per cent in India and over 90 per cent in Nepal. These workers face daily uncertainty: low and irregular wages, no contracts, no health coverage, and limited legal protection. Rising inflation has worsened their struggles, forcing families to cut essential expenses. While social protection programmes exist on paper, coverage is limited and enforcement weak, leaving most informal workers vulnerable to accidents, illness, and poverty.

Despite a record Boro harvest, rice prices in Bangladesh remain unusually high, raising questions about market manipulation amid weak monitoring as well as regulation. A visit to several rice wholesale markets in Dhaka reveals only a marginal decrease in prices. Coarse rice is selling at Tk 55 per kilogram, while the “Atash” variety is priced at Tk 65 per kg. Medium-quality Nazirshail and Miniket varieties are going for Tk 70–75 per kg, while premium Kataribhog and Miniket are fetching Tk 85–90 per kg in some areas. All of these prices are roughly Tk 5 per kg higher than in the period just prior to the last Eid ul Azha. Human chain in Ctg demands urgent action to curb rice price hike The price of 50-kg sacks has increased by Tk 350–500, depending on the variety.                          At Uttar Badda’s rice market, popular brands like Diamond, Mozammel, Palki, Royal, and Rasid are being sold at higher prices. Retailers claim they’re not receiving enough supply from millers and are being forced to purchase at higher prices. A similar situation exists at Karwan Bazar, where long-established syndicates between rice agencies, millers and corporate houses can essentially collude to control the price of rice.  Defying The Trend  The latest monthly report of the Planning Commission’s General Economics Division notes that inflation has finally started easing in recent months. Point-to-point inflation in June was recorded at 8.48% by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, marking the first time in 27 months that the inflation rate had fallen below 9%. The decline of 57 basis points (from 9.05% to 8.48%) was substantially larger than the one in May, when it declined by just 12 basis points (to 9.05% from 9.17% in April).  Although this has been attributed mainly to a decline in food inflation, which fell quite sharply by a full 120 basis points, or 1.2% in June (from 8.59% in May to 7.39%), the price of rice has bucked the trend and continues to exert upward pressure on the price level. Rice market remains volatile  despite large-scale imports from India Inflation in rice markets was recorded at an eye-watering 15% in June by BBS. It means even though Boro paddy collection started in late April, the market has seen little relief. With harvesting complete in many districts, the anticipated market correction has not materialised. The Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE) reports that around 5 million hectares were cultivated for Boro this season, targeting a final output of 22.6 million metric tons (MT)—1.6 million MT more than last year. However, increased costs for fertilizer, irrigation, and diesel have raised production expenses. Farmers say per-kilogram costs have risen from Tk 25 to Tk 28–30 this year. Farmers Blame Millers Farmers from Barishal, Jhalakathi, Barguna, Patuakhali and Pirojpur districts report that increased input costs — not adverse weather—are hurting them the most. Khokon Hawlader from Jhalakathi’s Nalchity upazila said, “Diesel prices are up by Tk 15 per liter, and fertilizers aren’t being sold at the government rate. We had to buy them without receipts at inflated prices. But even then, millers are not offering fair prices.” Abdul Khalek of Barishal’s Bakerganj said, “Millers set the price themselves. Until Eid-ul-Azha, paddy was in farmers’ hands and prices were stable. But once it reached the millers, prices spiked.” Neyamat Ali from Pirojpur’s Bhandaria echoed, “People think high rice prices benefit us. But we sell paddy cheap and buy rice at high prices. There’s no oversight—neither on fertilizer dealers nor on stockpiling millers.” Can Imports Pull Down the Price? The government began procuring Boro paddy on April 24 and will continue until August 31. It plans to buy 3 lakh MT of paddy at Tk 36 per kg and 1.4 million MT of rice at Tk 49 per kg, according to Food Adviser Ali Imam Majumder. Fearing poor Aman yields due to erratic weather, the government also plans to import 4 lakh MT of rice from international markets and allow private import of another 5 lakh MT, adding up to 9 lakh MT. Finance Adviser Salehuddin Ahmed told reporters that lower global rice prices will help stabilize the market once imports begin. The Consumers Association of Bangladesh (CAB), however, argues that rice imports are not a sustainable solution. Vice President SM Nazer Hossain said although private companies get import approval, they rarely open LCs (Letters of Credit) to follow through. “Last year too, traders showed no interest in importing rice. That’s because they already had stocks and preferred selling them at high prices,” he said, adding, “No one monitors why they aren’t importing even after getting approval.” Agricultural experts say the DAE increases paddy production targets yearly without verifying whether the targets are met. CAB’s Nazer said, “Whenever prices rise, these narratives emerge. It’s a tactic to divert public attention and protect unscrupulous traders.” Strict monitoring from production to retail, punishment for hoarding, and cracking down on inflated production costs are the key to stabilising rice prices with the existing domestic supply.  

Bangladesh is currently facing a range of macroeconomic challenges, including a slowing economy, high inflation and a decline in foreign investment, said Hoe Yun Jeong, Country Director of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) Resident Mission in Bangladesh on Wednesday. He said the country is facing a decline in foreign direct investment (FDI) and an alarming rise in non-performing loans (NPLs) within the banking sector, with insufficient foreign exchange reserves adding to the mounting pressure, hindering the country’s ability to navigate the economic turbulence. World Bank, ADB approve budget support worth $1.1 billion Yun Jeong made the remarks while delivering his introductory speech at the launch of the ADB’s flagship publication, Asian Development Outlook (ADO) April 2025, held at the ADB office in Dhaka. “Nevertheless, it is encouraging to note that the interim government has prioritised macroeconomic stability, along with institutional, social and political reforms,” Jeong said. The ADB expects inflation in Bangladesh to remain elevated, with monetary policy likely to stay tight, focusing on resolving vulnerabilities in the banking sector, particularly the issue of rising NPLs. On the external front, Jeong noted that the current account deficit is expected to narrow slightly, supported by strong remittance inflows. Bangladesh, ADB ink $600m loan deal for structural reforms In the fiscal sector, the ADB anticipates the fiscal deficit will remain close to the FY2024 level, driven by improved revenue mobilisation and increased recurrent government spending. Jeong warned of downside risks to the economic outlook, including persistent inflation, prolonged monetary tightening, political uncertainty, adverse weather events and a potential global slowdown triggered by new US tariffs. Looking ahead, he expressed the hope that the government would accelerate reforms to enhance domestic revenue collection, address high NPL levels, ensure energy security and stimulate private sector investment. He also stressed the importance of improving public investment management, especially in enhancing project readiness and implementation capacity. “As a longstanding development partner, ADB will continue to support the government through policy-based loans, project investments, and technical assistance,” Jeong said. He highlighted ADB’s focus on private sector development, disaster resilience, digital transformation, regional cooperation, and the provision of regional public goods and empowerment. “Despite global challenges, Bangladesh’s economy remains resilient. To sustain higher growth, the country must implement essential reforms without delay, especially as it prepares for its graduation from Least Developed Country (LDC) status in November 2026,” he added. Jeong also mentioned an upcoming joint report by ADB and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), titled “Roadmap for Investment Policy Reforms and Sustainable Development in Bangladesh,” which outlines key reforms needed to boost trade and attract FDI in the post-LDC graduation era. “Economic growth is only part of the equation — sustainability is the other. We reaffirm ADB’s continued support to the government in implementing necessary reforms and pursuing key projects to help Bangladesh achieve its sustainable development goals,” he said.