Bangladesh’s GDP growth has sharply declined in the fourth quarter (April-June) of the last financial year 2023-24, according to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). The growth was 3.91 per cent, which was 6.88 per cent in the last quarter of the fiscal year 2022-23. The BBS released the information on Monday. NBR focuses on boosting low tax-to-GDP ratio as major business figures come under scrutiny As per the data, the growth in the last quarter of the last financial year has been lower compared to the last quarter of the 2022-23 fiscal year. According to the calculation of the 4th quarter of the financial year 2023-24, the GDP size at current prices is Tk 13,783,612 million (Tk 13,784 billion) while in the 4th quarter of the financial year 2022-23 it was Tk 12,160,736 million (Tk 12,161 billion). On the point-to-point basis at constant prices, the growth in the 4th quarter of FY2023-24 was 3.91 percent as against 6.88 percent in the 4th quarter of FY2022-23. The growth in the first three quarters of FY 2022-23 was 6.25 percent, 7.05 percent and 3.02 percent respectively which in FY 2023-24 stood at 6.04 percent, 4.78 percent and 5.42 percent respectively. Employment generation takes priority over GDP growth: Planning Adviser Wahiduddin Agriculture Sector: On a point-to-point basis at constant prices, the agriculture sector grew by 5.27 percent in the 4th quarter of FY2023-24, as against 6.55 per cent in the 4th quarter of FY2022-23. In the first three quarters of FY 2022-23, the growth of this sector was 0.22 percent, 3.83 percent and 1.92 percent respectively which stood at 0.35 percent, 4.08 percent and 5.16 percent in FY 2023-24 respectively. Industrial Sector: On a point-to-point basis at constant prices, the industry sector grew at 3.98 percent in the 4th quarter of FY2023-24, as against 10.16 percent in the 4th quarter of FY2022-23. In the first three quarters of the financial year 2022-23 the growth of this sector was 5.80 percent, 10.55 percent and 6.91 percent respectively which in FY 2023-24 stood at 8.22 percent, 2.91 percent and 6.25 percent respectively. Services Sector: On a point-to-point basis at constant prices, the service sector grew by 3.67 percent in the 4th quarter of FY2023-24, compared to 4.82 percent in the 4th quarter of FY2022-23. In the first three quarters of the financial year 2022-23 the growth of this sector was 9.43 percent, 6.37 percent and 1.45 Percent respectively which in FY 2023-24 stood at 5.07 percent, 5.78 percent and 3.81 percent respectively.

The interim government of Bangladesh is moving to establish a comprehensive 'Statistics Policy' to address longstanding concerns about inaccuracies in data published by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). This initiative follows widespread allegations that the BBS had provided misleading economic data under the previous Awami League government. During the Awami League's tenure, the BBS was repeatedly accused of inflating GDP growth figures while downplaying inflation, raising serious doubts about the credibility of the country’s official statistics. Interim Government committed to curbing essential commodity prices by breaking syndicates: Mahfuj Alam “We are working to formulate a Statistics Policy, which will soon be approved by the Advisory Council,” said Planning Adviser Dr. Wahiduddin Mahmud at a recent press briefing following an ECNEC (Executive Committee of the National Economic Council) meeting. He emphasized the need for a clear, unified approach to ensure the accuracy and integrity of national data. BBS Under Scrutiny The BBS, which operates under the Ministry of Planning, faced consistent criticism for its inability to provide reliable data. Their capacity is not as strong as statistical institutions in other developing countries, Dr. Wahiduddin said. He pointed out that political pressure had influenced the BBS's economic data, particularly during periods of economic growth and inflation reporting. Sources within the Planning Commission and BBS confirmed that the agency struggles with capacity issues, making it difficult to collect and analyze accurate data. Furthermore, political interference has been a significant obstacle, particularly concerning key economic indicators such as GDP and inflation. Acknowledging these challenges, Dr. Wahiduddin reiterated his commitment to maintaining the independence of the BBS. “I have already informed them that I will not intervene in their reports, regardless of any shortcomings. The data, whether high or low, must stand on its own merit,” he said. NBR focuses on boosting low tax-to-GDP ratio as major business figures come under scrutiny Strengthening the BBS’s Capacity Dr. Wahiduddin, a well-known economist, has stressed the importance of empowering the BBS as an independent entity. He aims to enhance its ability to provide unbiased and accurate data without external interference. Discussions with officials from both the Planning Commission and BBS indicate a strong focus on capacity-building initiatives to improve the bureau's performance. The BBS is currently the sole national statistical office in Bangladesh, responsible for generating and publishing critical data on population, agriculture, industry, and the broader economy. However, under past administrations, its activities were often governed by orders and circulars, lacking a cohesive policy framework. Future Reforms The BBS gained legal grounding through the passage of the 'Statistics Act' on February 27, 2013, which formally outlined its responsibilities. According to this law, the bureau is tasked with producing accurate and timely statistics, conducting national censuses, and delivering data that meets the needs of policymakers, researchers, and other stakeholders. However, the policy aims to modernize these functions and address gaps in the existing system. Among the bureau’s future tasks will be updating the National Strategy for the Development of Statistics, standardizing statistical programs to international standards, and implementing a National Data Bank. The implementation of the Statistics Policy is expected to mark a significant step toward bolstering the integrity of Bangladesh’s statistical system, ensuring that data-driven decisions can be made with confidence. Inflation decreases by 1.17 % in August: BBS

The overall inflation decreased by 1.17 percent in August compared to last July, according to a report published by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) on Sunday. According to BBS, the overall inflation was 11.66 percent in July, which declined to 10.49 percent in August. Besides, food inflation declined to 11.36 percent in August, from 14.10 percent in July. However, non-food sector inflation rose slightly. Inflation in this sector stood at 9.68 percent in July, which increased slightly to 9.74 percent in August. Inflation rate in Bangladesh eases to 9.92% in Sept   In July, inflation reached its highest level in the last 13 years, with overall inflation crossing double digits during the student quota reform movement. The overall inflation rose to 11.66 percent that month, compared to 9.72 percent in June. Similarly, food inflation reached 14 percent in July, the highest in the past 13 years. The previous peak was in April 2011, when food inflation was at 14.36 percent. Since then, food inflation has not surpassed 14 percent.

The average life expectancy and birth rate in the country have declined in a span of a year. Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) revealed this on Sunday in a report titled ‘Bangladesh Sample Vital Statistics-2023’. According to the BBS report, life expectancy at birth in 2023 has decreased statistically, to 72.3 years, which was 72.4 years in 2022. On the other hand, the population growth rate has decreased in a span of a year. The general growth rate of the population in 2023 is 1.33 percent which was 1.40 percent in 2022. 'Joyee 360': IPDC launches sub-branch in Dhaka’s Mirpur for women entrepreneurs The BBS survey revealed that among the top ten causes of death, the first cause of death is cardiac arrest at 1.027 percent and the second cause at 0.64 percent was cerebral brain hemorrhage. The average age at first marriage for men is 24.2 years and for women 18.4 years. In terms of internal migration, the rural arrival rate is 20.4 and the urban arrival rate is 43.4 per thousand population. In addition, the number of young populations not in education, work or training decreased to 39.88 percent in 2023 compared to 40.67 percent in 2022. The mobile phone user population aged 5 plus increased to 59.9 percent in 2023. However, for 15plus-year-olds, the rate has slightly increased to 74.2 percent compared to 73.8 percent in 2022. 50.1% of Internet users aged 15 plus in 2023. The sex ratio is slightly downward in 2023 standing at 96.37 percent, and the dependency ratio is 53.73 percent. The population density is 1,179 persons per square kilometer. The gross birth rate per thousand population was 19.4 in 2023, which was 19.8 in 2022. At that time (2023), the obesity mortality rate per thousand population was 6.1, which was 5.8 in 2022. The under-five mortality rate is 33 per thousand and the maternal mortality ratio is 136 per 100,000 live births, compared to 153 in 2022. Bangladesh among 30 countries with the highest purchasing power parity in the world The number of birth control users in 2023 decreased slightly to 62.1 percent in 2023 compared to 63.3 percent in 2022. Unmet demand for birth control decreased to 15.57 percent in 2023 compared to 16.62 percent in 2022. Household size remained unchanged in 2023 as in 2022 at 4.2. However, the rate of female household heads increased in 2023 compared to 2022. It was 17.4 percent in 2022, which increased to 18.9 percent in 2023. On the other hand, male household head was 82.6 percent in 2022, the rate decreased to 81.17 percent in 2023.

The government of Bangladesh is hoping to return the economy to its pre-COVID growth momentum by the end of the current fiscal (2023-24), although that presents a significant challenge in the face of a clutch of economic headwinds. The government’s vision for economic recovery is outlined in the "Medium Term Macroeconomic Policy Statement 2023-24 to 2025-26," prepared by the Macroeconomy Wing of the Finance Division, under the Finance Ministry. It maintains that with the onset of the pandemic in 2020, the economy was knocked off its fast-paced growth trajectory for large parts of the last three years. The first confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Bangladesh were reported in March 2020, less than three months after the outbreak in Wuhan. Recently published quarterly GDP data (in keeping with a condition set by the IMF) bears this out. It reveals that the economy contracted by a massive 7.86 percent in the last quarter of the 2019-20 fiscal (April to June 2020), as the virus spread throughout the globe. Read more: Financing, technology and innovation needed for just transition to greener economy: Shahriar Alam According to the quarterly data released retrospectively by the Bureau of Statistics (BBS) last month, GDP had grown by between 6.5 to 8 percent in the first three quarters of 2019-20. That reflects the extent to which the wind was knocked out of the economy by the negative growth (contraction) in the fourth quarter. The slump induced by Covid would keep economic performance depressed through the first two quarters of the next fiscal (2020-21). It wasn’t until the 3Q (January to March, 2021) that the first signs of a recovery would become visible. As the 2021-22 fiscal kicked in, Bangladesh looked ready to put Covid-19 behind it, having implemented a successful vaccination programme and lifted lockdown restrictions. The economy rallied robustly, and GDP growth touched 10 percent in the third quarter (January to March 2022). Yet even as the recovery was underway, the seeds for it to stumble were sown halfway across the globe, with Russia going to war in Ukraine in February 2022. The resulting volatility in international energy markets and supply chain disruptions would knock the momentum out again, of the country’s post-Covid recovery. Read more: World Bank forecasts Sri Lankan economy to grow by 1.7% in 2024 Although there was nothing like the contraction precipitated by Covid-19, the economy did experience a severe slowdown in the last quarter of FY22, slipping to just 2.6 percent from the previous quarter’s high of 10 percent. “Bangladesh also braced for impacts on its economy. However, actual data shows that Bangladesh did impressively even during the height of the Covid-19 outbreak and is expected to return to pre-Covid growth trajectory by the end of FY 2023-24,” the statement surmises. If everything goes according to plan and ‘assumptions hold’, it says that 8 percent GDP growth rate can be attained again in 2025-26. “Therefore, the deviation of the actual from the planned growth envisaged in the 8th FYP (Five Year Plan) remained small,” it said. Read more: Bangladesh economy hit hard by Ukraine war The Macroeconomic Policy Statement mentions capital accumulation is key for development and hence the government aims to foster private investment along with public investment towards fulfilment of its goals.. Total investment in FY 2021-22 stood at 32 percent of GDP in which the contribution of the private and the public sectors were 24.5 and 7.5 percent, respectively. To achieve the long and medium-term growth targets, the level of investment will need to be increased further. The statement points out that there is room to increase the implementation rate of public investment. If the pace of implementation of development projects can be increased, the required level of investment can be attained. “Recognising this, the government has taken steps to bring about some structural changes in both project design and implementation levels,” it says in the statement. Read more: BGMEA-Circle Economy ink MoU to accelerate garment, textile sector’s transition towards circular economy The Finance Division document said that the Russia-Ukraine war has put global energy supplies at risk. Russia is a major global supplier of energy and hence when the war broke out, commodity prices spiked fast. Bangladesh started to suffer from this like almost all other countries. By December 2022, point-to-point inflation rose to 8.7 percent and then further rose to 9.3 percent by March 2023. However, global commodity prices are already falling, and central banks have raised policy rates and because of this it is expected that inflation will come down in the coming months. The IMF has projected that the measures taken by the governments will help reduce inflation in the medium-term. The Finance Division has projected that average inflation will fall significantly to 6.0 percent in 2023-24, although there has been no indication of it through the first quarter (July to September). Read more: Bangladesh Budget 2023-24 passed in parliament In order to tame inflation and protect the incomes of the poor, the government has emphasised increasing the domestic production of essential items, while gradually tightening monetary policy. The document says that food inflation hurts the poor the most. Keeping this in mind, the government through various measures, including subsidies and incentives, encouraged the growth of agricultural output. To support the agriculture sector, disbursement of credit to the sector has been increased. By the end of February 2023, the disbursement of agricultural credit and non-farm rural credit amounted to Tk. 210.66 billion in the first 8 months of the last fiscal, which was almost 14 percent higher, year on year. Read more: Why inflation persists at a higher level in Bangladesh With the help of supportive policies of the government, the general index of industrial production (medium and large-scale manufacturing) has been on the rise, reflecting expanded industrial production. Dr Masrur Reaz, a prominent economist and public policy analyst, believes it would be very challenging to regain the pre-Covid momentum within the current fiscal, since a number of macroeconomic indicators have become unstable. Talking to UNB, he suggested the government focus on stabilising the macroeconomic situation first, which would make the economy more sustainable in the long run. Dr Reaz pointed out that high inflation, severe foreign exchange/dollar crisis preventing, among other things, opening of LCs, and the fluctuating value of domestic currency taka, should be resolved first. Read more: Businesses should get opportunities to turn around before wholesale declaration of loan defaulters: FBCCI President “To bring the economy back to its pre-Covid growth rate, these issues should be resolved first, which itself would be very challenging and difficult in a short time,” he opined. Explaining further, Dr Reaz said: “The time is to stabilise the economy rather than focus on growth. In the long run, the economy will grow through reducing the high rate of non-performing loans, keeping inflation within reasonable limits and achieving exchange rate stability.”

Inflation continues  to persist at a high level in Bangladesh, affecting the lifestyles of common people severely as they struggle to survive on limited earnings in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic. Figures released on Sunday showed general inflation remained virtually unchanged at 9.69 percent on a point-to-point basis for the month of July, having been 9.74 percent in June, said the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). The Ministry of Finance and Bangladesh Bank (BB) have blamed the external factors for inflation while they failed to adopt the right fiscal and monetary policy measures, said economists. Read: General inflation virtually unchanged at 9.69 percent in July Talking with UNB former governor of the Bangladesh Bank Dr Atiur Rahman said Bangladesh could not go for adequate tightening of the monetary policy in time to rein in inflation while the US Federal Reserve continues to raise policy rates persistently. He said, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has also been raising policy rates consistently, while agriculture production rising consistently to strengthen the supply side. The market imperfections caused by growth curtail the root cause of higher food inflation and other necessities. The depreciation of the Taka had also been raising imported inflation at these times. The rent-seeking on the roads by some quarters besides higher transport prices due to readjusted fuel prices may have also been fuelling inflation from the supply side, Dr Atiur said. Read: Bangladesh Bank working to normalise inflation and dollar crisis despite geopolitical challenges He suggested the ways out may be to further tighten monetary policy and reduce public expenditure to reduce public borrowing from the central bank to align fiscal policy along with tighter monetary policy. The competition commission and Consumer Protection Authority must wake up to break the curtails. The roads should also be made rent-free to facilitate smooth flows of goods and daily necessities. The exchange rate must be stabilized at a single rate and hurdles for small entrepreneurs in opening letters of credit with adequate dollar support could ensure smooth supplies of imported goods for consumption and raw materials for continued production of goods and services could also help stabilize the prices of the same. Read: Ex-governors optimistic MPS can claw back inflation, implementation the key The regulators should keep on communicating well in anchoring the inflation expectations so that inflation does not get embedded in consumer psychology. Dr Zahid Hussain, the former lead economist of the World Bank's Dhaka office, told UNB that no measure has been taken to rein the inflation so far. He said the reigning repo rate is not affecting the market, and the increase of 1.0 percent in interest rate from July is not making any impact on the money market. He pointed out that printing currency to meet government expenditures is also fuelling inflation. Read: CPD dismisses budget's projections on growth, inflation, revenue collection Dr Zahid said there is no control over pricing of essentials products in the market, and businesses are making hefty profits showing supply-side uncertainty in the wake of the foreign exchange crisis. Dr Ahsan H Mansur, former economist of IMF and executive director of Policy Research Institute (PRI), told UNB that the BB printed more currency (taka) in a single year than it had in the last 50 years, which brought  additional inflationary pressure. Denying the BB claim of printing money as a regular matter that has no impact on inflation, Mansur said printing money against the US dollar, which commercial banks sold to the central bank is a different issue. Explaining the situation, Dr Mansur said despite the dollar crisis, the printing of high-speed money (printing currency) is continuing, which obviously brings impact on higher inflation, resulting in Bangladesh’s inflation rising while Sri Lanka and other Asian countries’ inflation is falling.

The average loan amount of each family in Bangladesh was Tk 70,506 in 2022, up from Tk 37,743 in 2016, according to Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) data shared recently. One-third of households in Bangladesh are now in debt. This information has emerged in the latest household income-expenditure survey of BBS. According to the survey, 37 percent of the country’s households have taken loans or borrowed money last year. Read more: Bangladesh's literacy rate rises to 74 percent, poverty down by 5.6 percent: Survey During the survey – from January to December last year, an average of 37.03 percent of households reported taking loans or borrowing money. In the 2016 survey, 29.70 percent of the households were borrowing. As such, in 6 years, the borrowing of families in the country has increased by more than 7 percent. Last Wednesday, BBS published the preliminary results of Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2022. Read more: Bangladesh’s total labour force is 7.34 crore, 26.3 lakh are jobless: BBS More rural households in debt than in cities According to the BBS survey, more households in the villages are in debt than in cities. In rural areas, an average of 39.35 percent of families are in debt. In urban areas, this percentage is 32.11. In 2016, the average household debt in urban areas was 22.10 percent. And in rural areas that percentage was 32.70. Read more: Inflation rises to 9.33 percent in March, highest in 7 months In 2022, the number of households in debt increased by an average of 10 percent in urban areas, and by 6.5 percentage in rural areas, the BBS survey stated.

Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) is making radical changes in the inflation calculation considering the present financial situation and the IMF suggestions. The inflation will be calculated for the base year 2021–22 instead of the existing base year of 2005-06, which will be more accurate as lifestyle and consumer behaviors made a big change in the present time, the BBS sources said. According to the BBS, in the new base year, the changes in consumption patterns of people during the last one and a half decade have been prioritized. For example, in the base year 2005-06, inflation was calculated using only 426 goods and services. About 300 more products and services are increasing in the new base year. There will be a total of 722 products and services as new, which will be calculated by taking 100 points and the contribution of these products to inflation. In this case, the contribution of rice will be 13. The remaining 721 products and services contributed 87. For the first time, the contribution of non-food products and services is crossing 50 percent. This means people spend more on consuming other goods and services than buying food, BBS official said. Read more: Bangladesh Bank unveils cautionary monetary policy to curb inflation and exchange rate Former chairman of NBR Dr. Muhammad Abdul Mazid told UNB that a new base year is definitely needed. But the list of food products should be changed drastically. “Around 80 percent of the current diet is carbohydrate-based foods. Food products should be listed with nutritional values rather than calories. This needs to be openly discussed with all stakeholders,” he said. Inflation has been high in the last six months due to Covid-19 pandemic and the Ukraine-Russia war. Since then, economists are arguing that the current system does not capture the correct picture of inflation. They believed that the inflation is actually higher. Meanwhile, the government has committed to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to change the base year in inflation calculations. According to this reform proposal, the BBS will calculate inflation from the new base year and method from next July. As a result, the BBS officials expect that the consumption and consumption trends of people will be illustrated more clearly. In addition, officials believe that long-held doubts among many economists about inflation calculations will be diminished, the BBS official said. The BBS has already been changed to a base year and the list of goods and services has made finalized. The pilot program for calculating inflation in the new base year will begin next month.

Bangladesh’s general inflation ratio in November 2022 dropped slightly to 8.85 percent (point to point). In last three months, the ratio of inflation dropped. In October, the inflation rate was 8.91 percent, while September saw an inflation rate of 9.1 percent. Fuel price hike in August pushed the point-to-point inflation in a decade-highest 9.52 percent, which had dropped by 0.61 percent in the last two months. Read: Inflation in Bangladesh falls slightly in Oct to 8.91% Inflation in Bangladesh decreased mainly due to fuel prices normalizing in the global market, strengthening supply of subsidized essential food items through TCB, and a surplus of winter vegetables, said Planning Minister MA Mannan while talking to reporters at the Secretariat on Monday (December 05, 2022). The consumer price index (CPI) data prepared by Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) saw that non-food inflation and other inflation in November was 8.14 percent and 9.98 percent respectively, while it was 8.50 percent and 9.58 percent in October. However, general inflation increased slightly in rural areas in November and it stood at 8.98 percent, while it was 8.92 percent in October. Read: Inflation: UN expert for increasing benefits, wages or lives will be lost The general inflation in urban areas of Bangladesh has decreased point to point 8.70 percent, while it was 8.90 percent in October 2022.

International Monetary Fund (IMF) has advised updating the gross domestic product (GDP) information of Bangladesh every 3 months, as per international standards. The visiting IMF delegation had a meeting with the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) on Tuesday (November 01, 2022). The IMF team also trained BBS officials on utilizing some tools for calculating GDP. Read: IMF wants to know Bangladesh Bank’s strategy for risk management The IMF team was led by its Mission Chief Rahul Anand. BBS Director General (Additional Secretary) Md. Matiar Rahman led the team in the discussion. According to BBS, the organization will start providing quarterly information as per IMF recommendations. Bangladesh’s GDP growth is measured with FY 2005-06 as the base year. An initiative was taken in 2017 to change it to FY 2015-16. Read: Visiting IMF team will meet BSEC to discuss capital market on Nov 7 However, in the last 5 years, BBS could not change the base year. Currently, BBS provides GDP growth data twice a year. IMF has suggested scrapping this method and publishing it four times a year so that developments in the financial state of the country are always known. August inflation data has been released late this time. The IMF wanted to know whether the delay in releasing the data was due to high inflation. BBS Director General informed them in detail about this. Read More: Bangladesh Bank will go slow in calculating reserves following IMF formula Bangladesh seeks $4.5 billion credit from IMF as budgetary support as foreign exchange reserves went down in recent months.