The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has expressed profound concerns over the escalating disruptions in global trade, particularly stemming geopolitical tensions affecting shipping in the Black Sea, recent attacks on shipping in the Red Sea affecting the Suez Canal and the impact of climate change on the Panama Canal. UNCTAD underscored the critical role maritime transport plays as the backbone of international trade, responsible for over 80% of the global movement of goods, said the UN trade and development body on Friday in Geneva. Developing countries are particularly vulnerable to these disruptions and UNCTAD remains vigilant in monitoring the evolving situation. The organization emphasizes the urgent need for swift adaptations from the shipping industry and robust international cooperation to navigate the rapid reshaping of global trade dynamics. Hungary, Kyrgyzstan greet PM Sheikh Hasina on her re-election The current challenges underscore trade's vulnerability to geopolitical tensions and climate-related challenges, demanding collective efforts for sustainable solutions especially in support of countries more vulnerable to these shocks. Trade disruption in the Black Sea, the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal routes. The recent attacks on Red Sea shipping, coupled with existing geopolitical and climate-related challenges, have given rise to a complex crisis affecting key global trade routes. UNCTAD estimates that the weekly transits going through the Suez Canal decreased by 42% over the last two months. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has triggered substantial shifts in oil and grain trades, reshaping established trade patterns. Simultaneously, the Panama Canal, a pivotal conduit for global trade, is grappling with diminished water levels, resulting in a staggering 36% reduction in total transits over the past month compared to a year ago. The long-term implications of climate change on the canal's capacity are raising concerns about enduring impacts on global supply chains. The crisis in the Red Sea, marked by Houthi-led attacks disrupting shipping routes, has added another layer of complexity. France wants to have more strategic collaboration, partnership with Bangladesh Major players in the shipping industry have temporarily suspended Suez transits in response. Notably, container ship transits per week have plummeted by 67% compared to a year ago, with container carrying capacity, tanker transits, and gas carriers experiencing significant declines. The surge in the average container spot freight rates during the last week of December, by plus 500 dollars, in one week, was the highest ever weekly increase. Average container shipping spot rates from Shanghai this week are up by 122% compared to early December. i.e. have more than doubled. The rates from Shanghai to Europe went up by 256%, i.e. more than tripled. Rates to the United States West coast also increased above average, although they do not go through Suez. They increased by 162%. Here we see the global impact of the crisis, as ships are seeking alternative routes, avoiding the Suez and the Panama Canal. The cumulative effect of these disruptions translates into extended cargo travel distances, escalating trade costs, and a surge in greenhouse gas emissions from shipping having to travel greater distances and at greater speed. Avoiding the Suez and Panama Canal necessitates more days of shipping, resulting in increased expenses. The price per day of shipping and insurance premiums have surged, compounding the overall cost of transit. New Bangladesh offering amazing investments opportunities: FM Hasan tells German Ambassador Additionally, ships are compelled to travel faster to compensate for detours, burning more fuel per mile and emitting more CO2, further exacerbating environmental concerns. Global Implications: increases in food and energy prices. UNCTAD underscored the far-reaching economic implications of these disruptions. Prolonged interruptions, particularly in container shipping, pose a direct threat to global supply chains, potentially leading to delayed deliveries and heightened costs. While current container rates are approximately half of the peak during the Covid crisis, passing on higher freight rates to consumers takes time, with the full impact expected to manifest within a year. Energy prices are witnessing a surge as gas transits are discontinued, directly impacting energy supplies, especially in Europe. The crisis is also reverberating in global food prices, with longer distances and higher freight rates potentially cascading into increased costs. Disruptions in grain shipments from Europe, Russia, and Ukraine pose risks to global food security, affecting consumers and lowering prices paid to producers.

The upcoming summit of BRICS, a group of major emerging economies – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, holds significant implications for global geopolitics, reported Modern Diplomacy on Friday (August 11, 2023). The summit has its central agenda revolving around the launch of a common currency among the member nations, the report said, adding that the move, aimed at reducing the dominance of the U.S. Dollar in international trade, has the potential to reshape the geopolitical landscape and challenge American supremacy. "For decades, the U.S. Dollar has reigned supreme in global trade and transactions, affording the United States unparalleled economic and geopolitical leverage. The U.S. has been using dollar and economy as tools to coerce and pressurize its adversaries," it said. "Imposing sanctions was a common tool against its rivals to achieve political goals." 2023 BRICS Summit: Lot of interest in how new members are chosen and which countries would be eligible There has been a growing sentiment against the U.S. hegemony, supremacy and coercion. "The proposed launch of a BRICS common currency or de-dollarization aims to alter this status quo, potentially diminishing the American influence and power that is closely tied to the dollar's dominance," it said. "BRICS is a strong Alliance and plays a huge role in Global Trade and Investments, and above all, it is above American influence," it added. "BRICS is in a position to transform the global economy in total. This move represents a growing discontent with the U.S. dollar's global dominance and a push toward Eastern superiority." BRICS Summit: PM Hasina’s meetings on sidelines yet to be confirmed, says foreign ministry spokesperson

The UN trade facilitation agency has said global trade is set to hit a record high of $32 trillion for 2022, but inflation has reversed some of the gains made in recent months. The global growth turned negative during the second half of 2022, UNCTAD added. "Trade in goods and services is expected to reach $25 trillion and $7 trillion, respectively, by the end of the year. The downturn began in the third quarter of the year, with goods trading about one percent lower than from March to May," the UN agency said. Although services increased by 1.3 percent in the third quarter, both goods and services are expected to fall in value in the run-up to the end of the year, according to the latest global trade update of UNCTAD. Demand for foreign goods proved resilient through 2022, with trade volumes overall increasing by three percent. Trade volumes of east Asian economies have shown resilience, while South-South trade lagged during the third quarter. Read more: Bangladesh govt aims to increase money supply over next two fiscals Overall, geopolitical frictions, persisting inflation, and lower global demand are expected to negatively affect global trade during 2023, UNCTAD said.

Global trade in medical goods saw 16.3% growth in 2020, compared to 4.7% in 2019 when the Covid-19 pandemic just started unfolding, according to the World Trade Organisation (WTO). Exports of medical products – including medicines, medical equipment and personal protective equipment (PPE) – rose more than 16%, underscoring how trade has been a lifeline for access to critical goods through the pandemic, after the initial disruptions. The share of medical goods in the world merchandise trade grew from 5.3% in 2019 to 6.6% in 2020. Trade in medical goods increased significantly in 2020, with trade in PPEs growing the most – more than 47.2%. Read: WTO to start Covid-19 vaccine supply negotiations amid clash on patents Medicine represented 52% of world trade in medical goods in 2020, according to World Trade Statistical Review 2021 issued by the WTO.

Britain and Australia had agreed on a free trade deal that will be released later Tuesday, Australian Trade Minister Dan Tehan said. The agreement is the first for Britain since it left the European Union. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his Australian counterpart Scott Morrison had reached agreement on the deal during negotiations in London, Tehan said. Read:Odds of settling US-EU trade rifts? Hope may outrun progress “Both prime ministers have held a positive meeting in London overnight and have resolved outstanding issues in relation to the FTA,” Tehan said in a statement, referring to the Free Trade Agreement. “Their agreement is a win for jobs, businesses, free trade and highlights what two liberal democracies can achieve while working together,” Tehan added. Both prime ministers would make a formal announcement on Tuesday morning in London and release further information, he said. Tehan said he spoke to Morrison on Tuesday. Australian Agriculture Minister David Littleproud described the deal as a “in-principle agreement.” Read:OPEC to boost oil output as economies recover, prices rise “The details are being nutted out from the in-principle agreement that our two prime ministers were able to get to last night over dinner,” Littleproud told Australian Broadcasting Corp. “Our departments and the Trade Department are working through feverishly to make sure that an announcement can be made at our time tonight so that Australians will see exactly what is in that in-principle agreement,” he added. The agreement is Australia’s 15th free trade agreement. RMIT University international business expert Gabriele Suder said the deal was good news for both Britain and Australia. Read:Australian court upholds ban on most international travel “It’s wonderful news for the U.K. ... in particular because this is the first post-Brexit deal that has been really constructed from scratch, negotiated from scratch, and in addition has been negotiated in a record time of just one year, which is very, very unusual for free trade agreement negotiations,” Suder said. Britain is Australia’s fifth-largest trading partner. Suder said she expected the deal would add 1.3 billion Australian dollars ($1 billion) a year to the Australian economy.

President Joe Biden has vowed to mend America’s trade relations with its European allies, which were stretched to the breaking point by President Donald Trump’s mercurial behavior, combative policies and aversion to multinational alliances. Yet when he meets Tuesday with European Union leaders in Brussels, Biden may find that making up is hard to do. The prospect of forging an accord to resolve their differences — and perhaps form a united front against an increasingly confrontational China — may be stymied by European skepticism. Sounding a sour note about Biden’s intentions, Valdis Dombrovskis, a Latvian political leader who serves as the European Union’s trade chief, said in speech last week that the time had come “for the U.S. to walk the talk.” Dombrovskis was referring in part to Trump’s 2018 decision to impose import taxes on foreign steel and aluminum — a decision that left European leaders furious and triggered retaliatory steps against the United States. Biden has been slow to take up the possibility of dropping the tariffs, which Trump had imposed on the basis of “national security.” Read:OPEC to boost oil output as economies recover, prices rise Asked about the tariffs during a news conference Sunday as he wrapped up his time at the Group of Seven summit in the U.K., Biden pleaded for patience with his young administration, saying, “A hundred and twenty days. Give me a break. Need time.” And with trade tensions still shading the trans-Atlantic relationship, the EU may also prove reluctant to join a U.S.-led effort to confront China over its provocative trade policies. Then there’s a longstanding dispute over how much of a government subsidy each side unfairly provides for its aircraft manufacturing giant — Boeing in the United States and Airbus in the EU. “This has been going on for 17 years,” says Cecilia Malmström, a veteran of trans-Atlantic battles as the European trade commissioner from 2014 to 2019. All that said, U.S.-EU relations are still certain to be much friendlier than they were under Trump, who regularly accused the Europeans of shirking their responsibility to pay for their own defense through NATO and of exploiting what he called unfair trade deals to sell far more products to the United States than they buy. In a goodwill gesture in March, the Biden administration and the EU did agree to suspend the tariffs they had imposed on each other in the Airbus-Boeing battle. Several news outlets have reported that U.S. and EU diplomats are working on a draft communique that would call for the Boeing-Airbus dispute to be resolved by July 11 and for the U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs — and the EU’s retaliatory sanctions — to be lifted by Dec. 1. Read:Biden directs US to mitigate financial risk from climate The Biden administration also announced Friday that Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo would be joining the U.S. delegation; her department administers the steel and aluminum tariffs. Kelly Ann Shaw, a former Trump administration trade official who is now a partner at the law firm Hogan Lovells, suggested that the EU and U.S. are eager to move past their tariff battles “so they can move on and tackle some 21st century challenges, not the least of which is China.” Last week, though, Biden’s national security advisor, Jake Sullivan, sounded noncommittal in speaking with reporters on Air Force One. “There has been good progress in those negotiations,” Sullivan said of the Boeing-Airbus dispute. “But I’m making no promises about what might happen.” Regarding the U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs, Sullivan noted that the EU agreed last month to suspend plans to escalate retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products — a concession meant to ease tensions and encourage further negotiations. But he added: “That’s going to take some time to work out.” Asked specifically whether the United States would be rolling back the metals tariffs, Sullivan shook his head. Read:Ji'nan to hold ‘Dialogue Sessions of 2021 for Executives from Multinational Corporations (Ji'nan) & China-Japan Industrial Innovation and Development Exchange Conference’ The steel and aluminum dispute is an especially sensitive one. In moving to tax imported metals, Trump dusted off a little-used weapon in U.S. trade policy to justify the tariffs: He declared the foreign metals to be a threat to U.S. national security — a decision that startled and outraged Europeans and other longstanding American allies. “Almost all the EU members were NATO members,” said Malmström, now a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “How could we be a national security threat? It was offensive.” Malmström said she was surprised that Biden hasn’t already dropped the tariffs and hopes he will do so at the summit Tuesday. “Maybe he’s saving this as a gift,” she said. Complicating the political calculus for Biden is that U.S. labor unions and steel and aluminum producers — some of them concentrated in states important to Democratic election prospects — want to maintain the tariffs on the imported metals to help keep prices up. A key reason is that China, which churns out more than half the world’s steel, has contributed to an oversupply that has otherwise kept global prices down. Demonstrating a united U.S.-EU challenge to China’s aggressive policies could strengthen the trans-Atlantic negotiating leverage. But Malmström said she is skeptical about whether the EU is eager to join the United States to face up to China and force a reckoning over its trade practices. Read:Apple brings CEO Tim Cook to court in defense of app store The Trump administration’s imposition of tariffs on $360 billion of Chinese goods came against the backdrop of a roiling conflict over the predatory tactics that China is widely accused of deploying to try to supplant America’s global technological dominance. Many trade experts say Beijing has coerced American companies to hand over trade secrets as the price of access to its market, forced U.S. businesses to license technology in China on unfavorable terms, used state funds to buy up American technology and committed outright theft. Critics, including Biden, had lambasted Trump for alienating would-be allies like the EU instead of enlisting them to help challenge Beijing. For now, though, Biden hasn’t called off Trump’s trade war against China. Malmström noted that among the EU’s 27 member countries, “there is no full unanimity on how to deal with China.” She suggested that the EU might go along with the United States on specific measures — perhaps cracking down on Beijing’s subsidies to its own companies, for example — but still stop short of joining the United States in any wide-ranging confrontation with China. “The EU will not just sign up to a U.S. agenda on the bottom line,” she said. “The EU is not in trade war mode against anyone.’’

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un presented economic plans to senior ruling party officials before an upcoming meeting to review efforts to overcome hardships brought about by the pandemic, state media said Tuesday. The Korean Central News Agency said Kim held his consultations Monday in preparation for a meeting of the Workers’ Party’s powerful Central Committee at which they will discuss state affairs for the first half of 2021. The meeting was set for early June and could take place as early as this week. Read:After Trump setbacks, Kim Jong Un starts over with Biden Kim’s plans were not specified but were described as intending to bring “tangible change” to stabilizing the economy and people’s living conditions. The North Korean economy has been crippled by decades of mismanagement, U.S.-led sanctions over Kim’s nuclear weapons program and the coronavirus pandemic. South Korean officials say there are no signs North Korea is easing the border controls it imposed at the start of the pandemic or importing more industrial and agricultural materials to boost production. The Workers’ Party last held a plenary meeting of Central Committee members in February, when Kim ripped into state economic agencies for their “passive and self-protecting tendencies” in setting their annual goals. Earlier in the year, at the party’s first congress since 2016, Kim urged his people to be resilient in the struggle for economic self-reliance and called for reasserting greater state control over the economy, boosting agricultural production and prioritizing the development of chemicals and metal industries. Those sectors have been critically depleted by sanctions and halted imports of factory materials amid the pandemic. Read:North Korea holds huge military parade as Kim vows nuclear might Kim has shown unusual candor in addressing the North’s economic problems in recent political speeches, saying that the country was facing its “worst ever” situation due to COVID-19, sanctions and heavy flooding last summer that decimated crops. He even called for his people to brace for another “arduous march,” a term that had been used to describe a 1990s famine that killed hundreds of thousands. In a meeting of the Workers’ Party’s political bureau last week, Kim expressed appreciation that a lot of economic works were being sped up thanks to the “ideological enthusiasm and fighting spirit of self-reliance” demonstrated by the party and his people. But he also said there was a need to correct unspecified “deflective matters,” which he said would be discussed at Central Committee’s plenary meeting. While North Korea monitoring groups have yet to detect signs of mass starvation or major instability, some analysts say conditions could be aligning for a perfect storm that undercuts food and exchange markets and triggers public panic. The Geneva-based Assessment Capacities Project, a nonprofit that specializes in humanitarian needs assessment, said in May that it considers North Korea to be at high risk of a humanitarian crisis. It said poor economic governance, repressive political measures and an increasing dependence on internal production amid a cutback in imports have negatively impacted the country’s population. “Chronic food insecurity and limited access to basic services, such as health care and clean water, have left more than 10 million people in need of humanitarian assistance,” the group said. Read:North Korea’s Kim adds title: General secretary of ruling party The economic setbacks have left Kim with nothing to show for his ambitious diplomacy with former President Donald Trump, which failed to bring the North sanctions relief, and the North has so far ignored the Biden administration’s calls to resume dialogue. Some experts say Kim could use the upcoming Central Committee meeting to address the stalled diplomatic efforts.

Improved access to coronavirus vaccines and other tools needed to fight the pandemic are vital to crushing the pandemic and hastening a recovery, officials said Saturday in an online meeting of Pacific Rim economies. The unprecedented crisis brought on by COVID-19 requires a coordinated, cooperative response, said New Zealand’s Trade and Export Growth Minister Damien O’Connor, who hosted the meeting. The 21-member APEC gathers economies all along the Pacific Rim, from tiny Brunei to the United States to Chile and New Zealand. One of its long-term aims is to promote a free trade area of the Asia-Pacific region. The focus Saturday was on “the most pressing problem our region faces, getting people vaccinated against COVID-19 as quickly as possible,” O’Connor said, adding he would be asking his counterparts how they could speed up trade in vaccines and other needed goods. “The successful distribution of vaccines across our region will be critical to our recovery,” he said. Read:Amid brutal case surge, Afghanistan hit by a vaccine delay APEC has long focused on dismantling trade barriers, and many of its members are still struggling to obtain and deploy enough COVID-19 vaccines to vanquish coronavirus flare-ups. Nearly 5 billion doses are still needed for the region of almost 3 billion people, O’Connor noted. In much of the Asia-Pacific region, the share of people vaccinated so far is in the low single digits. That includes places like Thailand and Taiwan that initially managed to avoid initial massive outbreaks but have seen cases rebound recently. APEC members Japan, South Korea and New Zealand are ranked among the worst among all developed nations in vaccinating their people for COVID-19, below some developing countries such as Brazil and India. Australia is also performing comparatively poorly. This week, President Joe Biden announced the U.S. will swiftly donate an initial allotment of 25 million doses of surplus vaccine overseas through the United Nations-backed COVAX program, promising infusions for Asia, South and Central America, Africa and others. Read:Senators say US donating vaccines to Taiwan amid China row That would be a substantial and immediate boost to the lagging COVAX effort, which to date has shared just 76 million doses with needy countries. While some countries at times have limited exports of vaccines, chemicals needed to make them or of protective equipment such as surgical masks, it’s unclear whether tariffs and other trade barriers have been the main problem since countries like Japan and New Zealand imposed onerous approval requirements that have slowed inoculations. The average tariff on vaccines is a low 0.8%, according to the APEC Secretariat. But duties on some other products such as freezing equipment, vials and alcohol solutions can be as high as 30% for some countries. Control of patents for the vaccines is a contentious issue. The U.S. has urged countries and pharmaceutical companies to waive COVID-19 patents to help increase supplies, and officials said they expected to discuss that issue during their talks this weekend. But some say such intellectual property rights are crucial for boosting vaccine production and should not be waived. Read: Sinopharm vaccine: Efforts underway to normalise things after price disclosure A broad waiver of such rights requires a consensus under World Trade Organization rules, O’Connor said. “We’re very mindful that the development of the intellectual property is what’s enabled us to very quickly get vaccines developed, in a time we previously haven’t seen across the globe,” he said. “We have to respect that intellectual property.” These are “extraordinary times,” O’Connor said. “We believe if there clearly are barriers to the rollout of vaccines caused by IP, then we should seek a waiver.” “We’re actually really encouraged to see more WTO members come forth with proposals on what they can support at the WTO with respect to the intellectual property rules of the WTO and how they apply to the COVID vaccine,” said U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai. She said the U.S. was carefully reviewing proposals on the issue and hoping to move toward “text-based negotiations.” Read: Share vaccines to cope with new surges, variants: UN At a vaccine summit last month, the head of the WTO said it was also crucial to diversify manufacturing and have more jabs produced in Africa and Latin America. Much is at stake. Beyond potential lives saved or lost, trade in vaccines and related supplies and equipment was estimated at $418.5 billion in 2019, according to the latest available data, and likely surged in 2020. The APEC meeting additionally focused on “building back better” by reallocating resources to improve health care, education and social safety nets. Even with the region still staggering from the pandemic and tourism still paralyzed by quarantines and border restrictions, Pacific Rim economies are forecast to regain momentum this year, with growth rebounding to more than 6% from a 1.9% contraction in 2020.

The European Union introduced tighter rules Friday on exports of COVID-19 vaccines that could hit shipments to nations like the United Kingdom, deepening a dispute with London over scarce supplies of potentially lifesaving shots.

The U.S.-Chinese trade war isn’t going away under President Joe Biden.