The United Nations forecast Wednesday (January 25, 2023) that global economic growth will fall significantly to 1.9% this year as a result of the food and energy crisis sparked by the war in Ukraine, the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, persistently high inflation and the climate emergency. Painting a gloomy and uncertain economic outlook, the U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs said the current global economic slowdown “cuts across both developed and developing countries, with many facing risks of recession in 2023.” “A broad-based and severe slowdown of the global economy looms large amid high inflation, aggressive monetary tightening, and heightened uncertainties,” U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in a foreword to the 178-page report. The report said this year's 1.9% economic growth forecast — down from an estimated 3% in 2022 — is one of the lowest growth rates in recent decades. But it projects a moderate pick-up to 2.7% in 2024 if inflation gradually abates and economic headwinds start to subside. Read More: Global economic growth will slow down in 2023, but will pick up in 2024: IMF chief In its annual report earlier this month, the World Bank which lends money to poorer countries for development projects, cut its growth forecast nearly in half, from it previous projection of 3% to just 1.7%. The International Monetary Fund, which provides loans to needy countries, projected in October that global growth would slow from 6% in 2021 to 3.2% in 2022 and 2.7% in 2023. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said at last week’s World Economic Forum in Davos that 2023 will be a difficult year, but stuck by the projection and said “we don’t expect a global recession.” Shantanu Mukherjee, director of the economic analysis and policy division of the U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, highlighted the growing income inequality in the world at a news conference launching the report. Between 2019 and 2021, he said, average incomes for the top 10% rose by 1.2% while the incomes of the lowest 40% fell by 0.5%. Read More: Bangladesh-Turkiye Business Forum launched to usher in new era of economic cooperation “The top 10% now earns on average over 42 times what the lowest percentiles” earn, Mukherjee said. According to the U.N. report, this year “growth momentum has weakened in the United States, the European Union and other developed economies, adversely affecting the rest of the world economy.” In the United States, GDP is projected to expand by only 0.4% in 2023 after estimated growth of 1.8% in 2022, the U.N. said. And many European countries are projected to experience “a mild recession" with the war in Ukraine heading into its second year on Feb. 14, high energy costs, and inflation and tighter financial conditions depressing household consumption and investment. The economies in the 27-nation European Union are forecast to grow by just 0.2% in 2023, down from an estimated 3.3% in 2022, the U.N. said. And in the United Kingdom, which left the EU three years ago, GDP is projected to contract by 0.8% in 2023, continuing a recession that began in the second half of 2022, it said. Read More: China’s economic growth falls to second-lowest level in four decades With China’s government abandoning its zero-COVID policy late last year and easing monetary and fiscal policies, the U.N. forecast that its economy, which expanded by only 3% in 2022, will accelerate to 4.8% this year. “But the reopening of the economy is expected to be bumpy,” the U.N. said. ”Growth will likely remain well below the pre-pandemic rate of 6-6.5%.” The U.N. report said Japan’s economy is expected to be among the better-performing among developed countries this year, with GDP forecast to increase by 1.5%, slightly lower than last year’s estimated growth of 1.6%. Across east Asia, the U.N. said economic recovery remains fragile though GDP growth in 2023 is forecast to reach 4.4%, up from 3.2% last year, and stronger than in other regions. Read More: AL govt's ouster a 'must' to tackle political, economic crises In South Asia, the U.N. forecast average GDP growth will slow from 5.6% last year to 4.8% this year as a result of high food and energy prices, “monetary tightening and fiscal vulnerabilities.” But growth in India, which is expected to overtake China this year as the world’s most populous nation, is expected to remain strong at 5.8%, slightly lower than the estimated 6.4% in 2022, “as higher interest rates and a global slowdown weigh on investments and exports,” the U.N. report said. In Western Asia, oil-producing countries are benefiting from high prices and rising output as well as a revival in tourism, the U.N. said. But economies that aren’t oil producers remain weak “given tightening access to international finance and severe fiscal constraints,” and average growth in the region is projected to slow from an estimated 6.4% in 2022 to 3.5% this year. The U.N. said Africa has been hit “by multiple shocks, including weaker demand from key trading partners (especially China and Europe), a sharp increase in energy and food prices, rapidly rising borrowing costs and adverse weather events.” Read More: Burden of Bangladesh’s economic and political stability must be shared One result, it said, is mounting debt-servicing burdens which have forced a growing number of African governments to seek bilateral and multilateral support. The U.N. projected economic growth in Africa to slow from an estimated 4.1% in 2022 to 3.8% this year. In Latin America and the Caribbean, the U.N. said the outlook “remains challenging,” citing labor market prospects, stubbornly high inflation and other issues. It forecast that regional growth will slow to just 1.4% in 2023 from an estimated expansion of 3.8% in 2022. “The region’s largest economies – Argentina, Brazil and Mexico – are expected to grow at very low rates due to tightening financial conditions, weakening exports, and domestic vulnerabilities,” the U.N. said. Read More: Bangladesh considering ‘pros and cons’ of Indo-Pacific Economic Framework: Momen For the world’s least developed countries, the U.N. said growth is projected at 4.4% this year, about the same as last year but significantly below the UN's target of 7% by 2030.

With economic uncertainty dominating recent news cycles, the status of the employment market is often unstable. Amid this challenge and uncertainty, there are some sectors that are less likely to see layoffs during a recession. More specifically, There are few abilities that tend to be more in-demand, marketable, and transferrable than others. To prevent the anxiety of job instability in times of economic turbulence, you may want to add recession-proof tech skills to your CV! Let’s check out the tech skills to build a recession proof career. Recent Recessions and Impact on Jobs According to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, the world's major economies have been slipping into recession as the global oil and inflation crises precipitated by Russia's assault on Ukraine have reduced growth by a greater amount than anticipated. In light of the OECD's projection that global growth would drop to 2.2% in 2023 from 2.8% in June, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom will enter a protracted period of recession due to their reliance on costly gas for heavy industry and residential heating. Read More: Youth unemployment rate in Bangladesh stands at 10.6pc: ILO Such conditions in the world economy can fatally impact the global sector. Like the recession for the Russia and Ukraine war, the world also has seen recession for Covid-19 and its impact on jobs. From spring 2019 to spring 2020, the unemployment rate for young employees aged 16 to 24 climbed from 8.4% to 24.4%, while the unemployment rate for those aged 25 and older rose from 2.7% to 11.7%. To stay productive even in a recession, you need to learn one or two skills that will serve you in such critical times. Recession-Proof Job Industries and Relevant Tech Skills Programming Today the most in-demand tech skills include Golang, SQL, . NET. Java, Python, Ruby, PHP, and others in a short amount of time. Extensive understanding of a few different languages can open job opportunityies in the IT industry. Where you are looking for full-time, part-time or freelance coding jobs, there are immense scopes. The most popular programming jobs include, web development, software development, apps development, networking, etc. Read More: 10 Most Prestigious Global Programming Contests Programming courses and coding boot camps make it simple to pick up today's most in-demand programming languages, such as HTML, CSS, Javascript, etc. Cyber Security Specialist Business leaders continue to place a high premium on information technology security despite the fact that many organizations are preparing for the effects of a recession. According to the findings of a recruitment expert named Robert Half, the specialists in the cybersecurity industry have been ranked as the workers that businesses are most focused on employing in the year ahead. Read More: Cyber Security Career Guide: How to Become a Cybersecurity Expert? When looking to hire someone for a position in cyber security, businesses prioritize a number of qualities, including knowledge of cybersecurity across several platforms, an awareness of hacking, and abilities in computer forensics. To develop career in Cyber Security you need to have several skills including Problem-Solving, Technical Aptitude, Security knowledge across Various Platforms, Communication Skills, Computer Forensics Skills, Understanding of Hacking, etc. Cloud Computing Cloud computing skills include knowledge of several sectors like database management, network management, programming, cloud security, machine learning, artificial intelligence, DevOps, APIs, etc. Read More: Huawei introduces versatile cloud solutions for telecom carriers The cloud business is certainly recession-proof due to the high need for cloud-related professions, and putting money into digital skills is more crucial than ever. As the majority of work is performed in a cloud-based environment, massive investments in technology and adoption are on the rise, resulting in an abundance of employment openings.

The global economy will come “perilously close” to a recession this year, led by weaker growth in all the world’s top economies — the United States, Europe and China — the World Bank warned on Tuesday. In an annual report, the World Bank, which lends money to poorer countries for development projects, said it had slashed its forecast for global growth this year by nearly half, to just 1.7%, from its previous projection of 3%. If that forecast proves accurate, it would be the third-weakest annual expansion in three decades, behind only the deep recessions that resulted from the 2008 global financial crisis and the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. Though the United States might avoid a recession this year — the World Bank predicts the U.S. economy will eke out growth of 0.5% — global weakness will likely pose another headwind for America’s businesses and consumers, on top of high prices and more expensive borrowing rates. The United States also remains vulnerable to further supply chain disruptions if COVID-19 keeps surging or Russia’s war in Ukraine worsens. And Europe, long a major exporter to China, will likely suffer from a weaker Chinese economy. The World Bank report also noted that rising interest rates in developed economies like the United States and Europe will attract investment capital from poorer countries, thereby depriving them of crucial domestic investment. At the same time, the report said, those high interest rates will slow growth in developed countries at a time when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has kept world food prices high. “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has added major new costs,” World Bank President David Malpass said on a call with reporters. “The outlook is particularly devastating for many of the poorest economies where poverty reduction is already ground to a halt and access to electricity, fertilizer, food and capital is likely to remain limited for a prolonged period.” The impact of a global downturn would fall particularly hard on poorer countries in such areas as Saharan Africa, which is home to 60% of the world’s poor. The World Bank predicts per capita income will grow just 1.2% in 2023 and 2024, which is such a tepid pace that poverty rates could rise. Read more: Emerging, developing economies less prepared for downturn than 10 years ago: World Bank “Weakness in growth and business investment will compound the already devastating reversals in education, health, poverty and infrastructure and the increasing demands from climate change,” Malpass said. “Addressing the scale of these challenges will require significantly more resources for development and global public goods.” Along with seeking new financing so it can lend more to poorer countries, Malpass said, the World Bank is, among other things, seeking to improve its lending terms that would increase debt transparency, “especially for the rising share of poor countries that are at high risk of debt distress.” The report follows a similarly gloomy forecast a week earlier from Kristina Georgieva, the head of the International Monetary Fund, the global lending agency. Georgieva estimated on CBS’ “Face the Nation” that one-third of the world will fall into recession this year. “For most of the world economy, this is going to be a tough year, tougher than the year we leave behind,” Georgieva said. “Why? Because the three big economies — U.S., EU, China — are all slowing down simultaneously.” The World Bank projects that the European Union’s economy won’t grow at all next year after having expanded 3.3% in 2022. It foresees China growing 4.3%, nearly a percentage point lower than it had previously forecast and about half the pace that Beijing posted in 2021. The bank expects developing countries to fare better, growing 3.4% this year, the same as in 2022, though still only about half the pace of 2021. It forecasts Brazil’s growth slowing to 0.8% in 2023, down from 3% last year. In Pakistan, it expects the economy to expand just 2% this year, one-third of last year’s pace. Other economists have also issued bleak outlooks, though most of them not quite as dire. Economists at JPMorgan are predicting slow growth this year for advanced economies and the world as a whole, but they don’t expect a global recession. Last month, the bank predicted that slowing inflation will bolster consumers’ ability to spend and power growth in the United States and elsewhere. Read more: World Bank dims outlook for global economy amid Russia war “The global expansion will turn into 2023 bent but not broken,” the JPMorgan report said.

The U.S. economy grew faster than expected in the July-September quarter, the government reported Thursday, underscoring that the United States is not in a recession despite distressingly high inflation and interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. But the economy is hardly in the clear, and the solid growth reported for the third quarter did little to alter the growing conviction among economists that a recession is very likely next year. Higher borrowing rates and chronic inflation will almost certainly continue to weaken consumer and business spending. And likely recessions in the United Kingdom and Europe and slower growth in China will erode the revenue and profits of American corporations. Such trends are expected to cause a U.S. recession sometime in 2023. Still, there are reasons to hope that a recession, if it comes, will prove a relatively mild one. Many employers, having struggled to find workers to hire after huge layoffs during the pandemic, may decide to maintain most of their existing workforces even in a shrinking economy. In the July-September quarter, the economy accelerated to a 2.6% annual pace, after two quarters of contraction. Consumers spent more and exports jumped, offsetting a sharp slowdown in home sales and construction. Six months of economic decline is a long-held informal definition of a recession. Yet nothing is simple in a post-pandemic economy in which growth was negative in the first half of the year but the job market remained robust, with ultra-low unemployment and healthy levels of hiring. The economy’s direction has confounded the Fed’s policymakers and many private economists ever since growth screeched to a halt in March 2020, when COVID-19 struck and 22 million Americans were suddenly thrown out of work. By far the biggest threat to the economy remains inflation, which is still near its highest level in four decades. Even for workers who received sizable raises, their pay has dropped once it’s adjusted for inflation. The pain is being felt disproportionately by lower-income and Black and Hispanic households, many of whom are struggling to pay for essentials like food, clothes, and rent. High inflation has also become a central issue in Republican attacks on President Joe Biden and his fellow Democrats, who have been thrown on the defensive as they seek to maintain control of Congress in the midterm elections. So what is the likelihood of a recession? Here are some questions and answers: WHY DO MANY ECONOMISTS FORESEE A RECESSION? They expect the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes and persistently high inflation to overwhelm consumers and businesses, forcing them to slow their spending and investment. Businesses will likely also have to cut jobs, causing spending to fall further. The Fed is poised to keep raising its benchmark interest rate after having already hiked it five times this year, from near zero to a range of 3% to 3.25%. Fed officials have projected that their short-term rate, which affects borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, will reach about 4.6% next year, which would be the highest level since late 2007. Read: How do we know when a recession has begun? Consumers have been remarkably resilient so far this year. Still, there are signs that high inflation and borrowing costs have begun taking a toll. Last quarter, consumer spending grew at just a 1.4% annual rate, according to Thursday’s government report, down from 2% in the second quarter and less than half its pace of a year ago. Thursday’s figures also showed that businesses are cutting back on investment in buildings and factories, and the housing market has been hammered by rising mortgage costs. Those trends are expected to intensify, leading to a likely recession. WHAT ARE SOME SIGNS THAT A RECESSION MAY HAVE BEGUN? The clearest signal, economists say, would be a steady rise in job losses and a surge in unemployment. Claudia Sahm, an economist and former Fed staff member, has noted that since World War II, an increase in the unemployment rate of a half-percentage point over several months has always resulted in a recession. Many economists monitor the number of people who seek unemployment benefits each week, which indicates whether layoffs are worsening. Weekly applications for jobless aid have increased in recent months, but not by very much. Instead, employers have added a robust average of 370,000 jobs in the past three months. ANY OTHER SIGNALS TO WATCH FOR? Many economists monitor changes in the interest payments, or yields, on different bonds for a recession signal known as an “inverted yield curve.” This occurs when the yield on the 10-year Treasury falls below the yield on a short-term Treasury, such as the 3-month T-bill. That is unusual. Normally, longer-term bonds pay investors a richer yield in exchange for tying up their money for a longer period. Inverted yield curves generally mean that investors foresee a recession that will compel the Fed to slash rates. Inverted curves often predate recessions. Still, it can take 18 to 24 months for a downturn to arrive after the yield curve inverts. Ever since July, the yield on the two-year Treasury note has exceeded the 10-year yield, suggesting that markets expect a recession soon. And just this week, the three-month yield also temporarily rose above the 10-year, an inversion that has an even better track record at predicting recessions. WHO DECIDES WHEN A RECESSION HAS STARTED? Recessions are officially declared by the obscure-sounding National Bureau of Economic Research, a group of economists whose Business Cycle Dating Committee defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.” The committee considers trends in hiring as a key measure in determining recessions. It also assesses many other data points, including gauges of income, employment, inflation-adjusted spending, retail sales and factory output. It puts heavy weight on jobs and a measure of inflation-adjusted income that excludes government support payments like Social Security. Read: How to recession-proof your life amid economic uncertainty Yet the NBER typically doesn’t declare a recession until well after one has begun, sometimes for up to a year. DON’T A LOT OF PEOPLE THINK WE”RE ALREADY IN A RECESSION? Yes, because many people now feel much more financially burdened. With wage gains trailing inflation for most people, higher prices have eroded Americans’ spending power. And the Fed’s rate hikes have helped send the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate surging above 7% this week, the highest level in two decades. It has more than doubled from about 3% a year ago, thereby making homebuying increasingly unaffordable. DOES HIGH INFLATION TYPICALLY LEAD TO A RECESSION? Not always. Inflation reached 4.7% in 2006, at that point the highest in 15 years, without causing a downturn. (The 2008-2009 recession that followed was caused by the bursting of the housing bubble). But when it gets as high as it has this year — it reached a 40-year peak of 9.1% in June — a downturn becomes increasingly likely. That’s for two reasons: First, the Fed will inevitably sharply raise borrowing costs when inflation gets that high. Higher rates then drag down the economy as consumers are less able to afford homes, cars, and other major purchases. High inflation also distorts the economy on its own. Consumer spending, adjusted for inflation, weakens. And businesses grow uncertain about the future economic outlook. Many of them pull back on their expansion plans and stop hiring, which can lead to higher unemployment as some people choose to leave jobs and aren’t replaced.

The U.S. economy has contracted for two straight quarters, intensifying fears that the nation is on the cusp of a recession — if not already in one — barely two years after the pandemic recession officially ended. Six months of contraction is a long-held informal definition of a recession. Yet nothing is simple in the post-pandemic economy. Its direction has confounded Federal Reserve policymakers and many private economists since growth screeched to a halt in March 2020 as COVID-19 struck and 20 million Americans were suddenly thrown out of work. One sector of the economy that has remained defiantly buoyant is the jobs market and on Friday, the Labor Department will release monthly employment data that most economists believe will show that hiring, too, has begun to cool. That would be a sizeable shift in an era that may be remembered for having so many unfilled jobs that there were two available for every American who didn’t have one. Even as the economy shrank over the first half of this year, employers added 2.7 million jobs — more than in most entire years before the pandemic struck. And the unemployment rate has sunk to 3.6%, near a half-century low. Robust hiring and exceedingly low unemployment aren’t consistent with a recession. While most economists — and Fed Chair Jerome Powell — have said they don’t think the economy is in recession, many increasingly expect an economic downturn to begin later this year or next. Either way, with inflation raging at its highest level in four decades, Americans’ purchasing power is eroding. The pain is being felt disproportionately by lower-income and Black and Hispanic households, many of whom are struggling to pay for higher-cost essentials like food, gas and rent. Compounding those pressures, the Fed is jacking up interest rates at the fastest pace since the early 1980s, thereby magnifying borrowing costs for homes and cars and credit card purchases. Read: Inflation hits record 8.9% in euro area, but economy grows As a result, regardless of whether a recession has officially begun, Americans have increasingly soured on the economy, So how, exactly, do we know when an economy is in recession? Here are some answers to such questions: WHO DECIDES WHEN A RECESSION HAS STARTED? Recessions are officially declared by the obscure-sounding National Bureau of Economic Research, a group of economists whose Business Cycle Dating Committee defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.” The committee considers trends in hiring as a key measure in determining recessions. It also assesses many other data points, including gauges of income, employment, inflation-adjusted spending, retail sales and factory output. It puts heavy weight on jobs and a gauge of inflation-adjusted income that excludes government support payments such as Social Security. Yet the NBER typically doesn’t declare a recession until well after one has begun, sometimes for up to a year. Economists consider a half-point rise in the unemployment rate, averaged over several months, as the most historically reliable sign of a downturn. DO TWO STRAIGHT QUARTERS OF ECONOMIC CONTRACTION EQUAL A RECESSION? That’s a common rule of thumb, but it isn’t an official definition. Still, in the past, it has been a useful measure. Michael Strain, an economist at the right-leaning American Enterprise Institute, notes that in each of the past 10 times that the economy shrank for two consecutive quarters, a recession has resulted. Still, even Strain isn’t sure we’re in recession now. Like many economists, he notes that the underlying drivers of the economy — consumer spending, business investment, home purchases — all grew in the first quarter. Overall gross domestic product — the broadest measure of the nation’s output — declined at a 1.6% annual rate from January through March because of one-off factors, including a sharp jump in imports and a post-holiday season drop in businesses’ inventories. Many economists expect that when GDP is revised later this year, the first quarter may even turn out to be positive. “The basic story is that the economy is growing but still slowing, and that slowdown really accelerated in the second quarter,” Strain said. DON’T A LOT OF PEOPLE THINK A RECESSION IS COMING? Yes, because many people now feel more financially burdened. With wage gains trailing inflation for most people, higher prices for such essentials as gas, food, and rent have eroded Americans’ spending power, This week, Walmart reported that higher gas and food costs have forced its shoppers to reduce their purchases of discretionary spending such as new clothing, a clear sign that consumer spending, a key driver of the economy, is weakening. The nation’s largest retailer, Walmart reduced its profit outlook and said it will have to discount more items like furniture and electronics. Read: India's Mukesh Ambani kickstarts dynastic succession And the Fed’s rate hikes have caused average mortgage rates to double from a year ago, to 5.5%, causing a sharp fall in home sales and construction. Higher rates will also likely weigh on businesses’ willingness to invest in new buildings, machinery and other equipment. If companies reduce spending and investment, they’ll also start to slow hiring. Rising caution among companies about spending freely could lead eventually to layoffs. If the economy were to lose jobs and the public were to grow more fearful, consumers would further reduce spending. The Fed’s rapid rate hikes have raised the likelihood of recession in the next two years to nearly 50%, Goldman Sachs economists have said. And Bank of America economists now forecast a “mild” recession later this year, while Deutsche Bank expects a recession early next year. WHAT ARE SOME SIGNS OF AN IMPENDING RECESSION? The clearest signal that a recession is under way, economists say, would be a steady rise in job losses and a surge in unemployment. In the past, an increase in the unemployment rate of three-tenths of a percentage point, on average over the previous three months, has meant that a recession will soon follow. Many economists monitor the number of people who seek unemployment benefits each week, which indicates whether layoffs are worsening. Weekly applications for jobless aid, averaged over the past four weeks, have risen for eight straight weeks to nearly 250,000, the highest level since last November. While that is a potentially concerning sign, it is still a low level historically. ANY OTHER SIGNALS TO WATCH FOR? Many economists also monitor changes in the interest payments, or yields, on different bonds for a recession signal known as an “inverted yield curve.” This occurs when the yield on the 10-year Treasury falls below the yield on a short-term Treasury, such as the 3-month T-bill. That is unusual. Normally, longer-term bonds pay investors a richer yield in exchange for tying up their money for a longer period. Inverted yield curves generally mean that investors foresee a recession that will compel the Fed to slash rates. Inverted curves often predate recessions. Still, it can take 18 to 24 months for a downturn to arrive after the yield curve inverts. For the past two weeks, the yield on the two-year Treasury has exceeded the 10-year yield, suggesting that markets expect a recession soon. Many analysts say, though, that comparing the 3-month yield to the 10-year has a better recession-forecasting track record. Those rates are not inverted now. WILL THE FED KEEP RAISING RATES EVEN AS THE ECONOMY SLOWS? The economy’s flashing signals — slowing growth with strong hiring — have put the Fed in a tough spot. Chair Jerome Powell is aiming for a “soft landing,” in which the economy weakens enough to slow hiring and wage growth without causing a recession and brings inflation back to the Fed’s 2% target. But Powell has acknowledged that such an outcome has grown more difficult to achieve. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s COVID-19 lockdowns have driven up prices for energy food, and many manufactured parts in the U.S. Powell has also indicated that if necessary, the Fed will keep raising rates even amid a weak economy if that’s what’s needed to tame inflation. “Is there a risk that we would go too far?” Powell asked last month. “Certainly there’s a risk, but I wouldn’t agree that’s the biggest risk to the economy. The biggest mistake to make…would be to fail to restore price stability.”

Prices for gas, food and rent are soaring. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to the highest level since 2018. The U.S. economy has shrunk for two straight quarters. Economists are divided over whether a recession is looming. What’s clear is that economic uncertainty isn’t going away anytime soon. But there are steps you can take now to be ready for whatever is ahead. Yiming Ma, an assistant professor at Columbia University, says it’s not a question of if but when a recession will happen. People should prepare but not panic, she said. “Historically the economy has always been going up and down,” said Ma. “It’s something that just happens, it’s a bit like catching a cold.” But, she notes, some people’s immune systems are better able to recover than others. It’s the same with finances. If you think a recession could destabilize yours, here are some things you can do to prepare. KNOW YOUR EXPENSES AND MAKE A BUDGET Knowing how much you spend every month is key. Ma recommends sitting down and writing how much you spend day-to-day. This will help you see what’s coming in, what’s going out, and which unnecessary expenses you might be able to cut. “By understanding what money you are getting and what you are spending, you may be able to make changes to help you through tough times,” advises the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s Money Smart, a financial education program. Budgets often reveal expenses that can be eliminated entirely or impulsive spending that can be avoided with planning. For guidance creating a budget, free courses such as “ Creating a budget (and sticking to it) ” by CT Dollars and Sense, a partnership of Connecticut state agencies, and Nerd Wallet’s Budget Calculator can be good places to start. SAVE AS YOU CAN The more non-essential expenses you can cut, the more you can save. It’s not possible for everyone, but Gene Natali, cofounder of Troutwood, an app that helps people create financial plans, says it’s ideal to budget to save enough to cover basic necessities for three to six months. Programs such as America Saves, a non-profit campaign by the Consumer Federation of America, can help create a roadmap. And if you do have a savings account, it’s important to check whether your bank gives you a good interest rate and shop around if it doesn’t, Ma said. Read: Inflation hits record 8.9% in euro area, but economy grows Her advice is to keep an eye on the monthly fees or service charges that might eat into your savings. But don’t limit your options. Online banks sometimes offer better rates than traditional ones. CONSOLIDATE YOUR LOANS, AND DON’T TAKE ANY MORE As interest rates rise, experts recommend that you consolidate your loans to have just one fixed-rate loan and, if you can, pay down as much of your debt as possible. “Job security tends to be worse when a recession comes, it’s not a great time to accumulate debt,” said Ma. But paying off your existing debt is easier said than done. The Federal Trade Commission’s Consumer Advice guide for Getting Out of Debt can help you make a plan. With interest rates high, it’s also not a great time to take out new loans for big expenses like cars, though experts do recommend that if you need durable goods such as vacuum cleaners, stoves or dishwashers, you buy them as soon as possible to avoid future price increases. VISIT SECOND-HAND STORES AND YARD SALES Allen Galeon, an in-home caregiver in California, has been affected for months by the rising prices of household staples like groceries, paper towels, and gas for his commute. His son’s favorite Hi-C orange juice, which was $1.99 for a six-pack, is now $2.50. Since the start of the pandemic, when Galeon cut down from caring for multiple families to a single client to reduce his health risks, his household has dealt with financial instability. One choice he’s made is to buy items like clothes or electronics second-hand whenever possible, whether from Goodwill, pawn shops, or Craigslist. And Craigslist allows you to search by area, to cut down on driving – which means less gas and inconvenience. NEGOTIATE YOUR MONTHLY BILLS Since the pandemic, many companies have updated their relief policies and have become more flexible with users, according to Kia McCallister-Young, director of America Saves. Calling providers of monthly services to negotiate bills — whether it’s utilities, phone service, cable, internet, or auto insurance — can lead to meaningful savings, said McCallister-Young. Individuals can ask for the best rate, any available discounts, rebates, or coupons that can lead to a lowered monthly fee. If a provider is competitive with other companies, there’s an even better chance of getting a discount, she added. “If you tell them, ‘I’m thinking of changing’ or that you’re shopping around, that helps — if they know you’re considering leaving, they’ll give you the best rate, and the goal right now is to find as much cashflow as possible,” she said. Read: US economy shrinks for a 2nd quarter, raising recession fear Check out federal programs such as the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program, which helps cover bills, and Lifeline, which can assist with phone bills. If you are unsure if you qualify for any federal or state program, you can call 211, which will connect you with a local specialist who can assist you. SWITCH UP YOUR GROCERIES Grocery shopping with a meal plan, buying generic rather than brand-name or purchasing in bulk are some of the recommendations from the Consumer Federation of America. “A lot of stores have price matching, so if you show them that a competitor is selling the same product at a lower rate, they’ll match that,” said McCallister-Young. “You also want to be looking at the stores that are closest to you, so you’re not spending the extra money you’d save on gas.” An alternative way to save money on groceries is to check out food sharing apps such as Olio, which connects people around their community to share extra grocery items, and Too Good to Go, where customers can buy businesses’ surplus food at a discount. LOOK AT GOVERNMENT ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS Even with these saving and spending practices, a month’s wages aren’t always enough to cover important expenses. If this is your situation, programs around the country are available to assist you. “Sometimes there just isn’t enough ‘end of the month’ at the end of the month,” said Michael Best, an attorney at the National Consumer Law Center who works on financial services issues. To make use of these resources, check if you qualify for the Emergency Rental Assistance Program, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, Farmers Market Nutrition Program, or the Homeowner Assistance Fund. All of these are federal programs coordinated by state governments. Some states offer additional local programs for their residents. LOOK FOR COMMUNITY ASSISTANCE If you are experiencing food or housing insecurity, look for non-profit or community organizations around you. From housing support and food banks to utility assistance, non-profit organizations around the country can help. National organizations such as Feeding America host food banks in all 50 states. “We’re already seeing the community reaching out to us in overwhelming numbers because of what’s happening in the country in terms of economic stability,” said Kavita Mehra of Sakhi for South Asian Women, an organization that helps domestic violence survivors in New York City. Her organization provides housing, food, and cash emergency assistance for people in the community. She said that between January and June, her group distributed over $150,000 in emergency cash assistance to survivors who were having a harder time keeping the lights on and putting food on the table. That’s more than all of last year. Food assistance organizations such as Ample Harvest, Hunger Free America and Food Rescue US offer maps that allow users to search a nearby food bank by typing their zip code. TAKE CARE OF YOUR MENTAL HEALTH Between worrying about the bills and not knowing what your financial future might look like, your stress levels can go through the roof. “It’s a hectic existence,” Galeon said. “You have to do a lot of managing, and you have to keep a cool head, for the sake of your mental health.” Debra Kissen, a clinical director of Light On Anxiety CBT Treatment Center, recommends first recognizing when your body is stressed. Then she advises mindfulness exercises such as breathing, touching a wall to calm yourself, and completing the “five senses for anxiety relief” exercise.   Most health insurance covers some type of mental health assistance. If you don’t have health insurance, you can look for sliding-scale therapists around the country, including through FindTreatment.gov and the Anxiety and Depression Association of America directory.

The U.S. economy shrank from April through June for a second straight quarter, contracting at a 0.9% annual pace and raising fears that the nation may be approaching a recession. The decline that the Commerce Department reported Thursday in the gross domestic product — the broadest gauge of the economy — followed a 1.6% annual drop from January through March. Consecutive quarters of falling GDP constitute one informal, though not definitive, indicator of a recession. The GDP report for last quarter pointed to weakness across the economy. Consumer spending slowed as Americans bought fewer goods. Business investment fell. Inventories tumbled as businesses slowed their restocking of shelves, shaving 2 percentage points from GDP. Higher borrowing rates, a consequence of the Federal Reserve’s series of rate hikes, clobbered home construction, which shrank at a 14% annual rate. Government spending dropped, too. The report comes at a critical time. Consumers and businesses have been struggling under the weight of punishing inflation and higher loan costs. On Wednesday, the Fed raised its benchmark rate by a sizable three-quarters of a point for a second straight time in its push to conquer the worst inflation outbreak in four decades. The Fed is hoping to achieve a notoriously difficult “soft landing”: An economic slowdown that manages to rein in rocketing prices without triggering a recession. Apart from the United States, the global economy as a whole is also grappling with high inflation and weakening growth, especially after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent energy and food prices soaring. Europe, highly dependent on Russian natural gas, appears especially vulnerable to a recession. In the United States, the inflation surge and fear of a recession have eroded consumer confidence and stirred anxiety about the economy, which is sending frustratingly mixed signals. And with the November midterm elections nearing, Americans’ discontent has diminished President Joe Biden’s public approval ratings and could increase the likelihood that the Democrats will lose control of the House and Senate. Read: US economy grew at solid 3.1% rate in first quarter Fed Chair Jerome Powell and many economists have said that while the economy is showing some weakening, they doubt it’s in recession. Many of them point, in particular, to a still-robust labor market, with 11 million job openings and an uncommonly low 3.6% unemployment rate, to suggest that a recession, if one does occur, isn’t here yet. “The back-to-back contraction of GDP will feed the debate about whether the U.S. is in, or soon headed for, a recession,” said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. “The fact that the economy created 2.7 million payrolls in the first half of the year would seem to argue against an official recession call for now.” Still, Guatieri said, “the economy has quickly lost steam in the face of four-decade high inflation, rapidly rising borrowing costs and a general tightening in financial conditions.” In the meantime, Congress may be moving toward approving action to fight inflation under an agreement announced Wednesday by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Sen. Joe Manchin, a West Virginia Democrat. Among other things, the measure would allow Medicare to negotiate prescription drug prices with pharmaceutical companies, and the new revenue would be used to lower costs for seniors on medications. In the wake of Thursday’s second straight negative GDP report, Biden downplayed the news, pointing to continued low unemployment and strong hiring. “Coming off of last year’s historic economic growth — and regaining all the private-sector jobs lost during the pandemic crisis — it’s no surprise that the economy is slowing down as the Federal Reserve acts to bring down inflation,” the president said in a statement. “But even as we face historic global challenges, we are on the right path and we will come through this transition stronger and more secure.” The government’s first of three estimates of GDP for the April-June quarter marked a drastic weakening from the 5.7% growth the economy achieved last year. That was the fastest calendar-year expansion since 1984, reflecting how vigorously the economy roared back from the brief but brutal pandemic recession of 2020. But since then, the combination of mounting prices and higher borrowing costs have taken a toll. The Labor Department’s consumer price index skyrocketed 9.1% in June from a year earlier, a pace not matched since 1981. And despite widespread pay raises, prices are surging faster than wages. In June, average hourly earnings, after adjusting for inflation, slid 3.6% from a year earlier, the 15th straight year-over-year drop. Americans are still spending, though more tepidly. Thursday’s report showed that consumer spending rose at a 1% annual pace from April through June, down from 1.8% in the first quarter and 2.5% in the final three months of 2021.

With the economy shrinking by 12.1 percent in the second quarter of the year, the Eurozone has entered the deepest recession in its history.

The federal government incurred the biggest monthly budget deficit in history last month as spending on programmes to combat the coronavirus recession exploded while millions of job losses cut into tax revenues.