A 55-year-old man killed himself after failing to repay loans from various NGOs in Sadar upazila of Barguna on Tuesday. The deceased was identified as farmer Dulal Matubbor, of the upazila. The police recovered his body hanging from a tree with a rope in Badarkhali village of Badarkhali union this morning, said Ali Ahmed, officer-in-charge (OC) of Barguna Sadar police station. Dulal might have committed suicide due to family feud following his failure to repay the loans from   NGOs, associations and locals, said Joint convener of Badarkhali Union Jubo League Md Al Amin. Read more: 2 farmers’ suicide for irrigation water: Agriculture secy vows strict action The OC said, “It is being investigated whether it is murder or suicide. Legal action will be taken following the investigation.” The body has been kept in Barguna Sadar Hospital morgue for an autopsy, he added.

Bangladesh's total debt burden is currently far below the threshold level on both domestic fronts posing no threat to the economy, according to an official document. For Bangladesh  the comfortable level for total public debt is 70 per cent of GDP and external debt is 55 per cent of GDP. The country's projected total debt (42.9 per cent of GDP) and external debt (16.4 per cent of GDP) by fiscal 2023-24 is far below the respective thresholds and do not pose any threat despite having a slight upward trend due the COVID-19 shock, according to the recent document. Also read: No Chinese debt trap in Bangladesh: Chinese envoy It said that prudent fiscal policy adopted by the government is expected to keep the public debt at a sustainable level over the medium term. The country's debt sustainability analysis (DSA) by the World Bank-IMF shows that government debt remains at a low risk of debt stress despite the economic shock caused by the COVID-19 pandemic (IMF article IV report 2020). External and domestic debt indicators are below their respective thresholds under the baseline and stress test scenarios until 2030. The document said that composite index (CI) rating that is calculated by the above framework based on the country's real GDP growth, remittances, international reserves, world growth, and CPIA (Country Policy and Institutional Assessment) score is calculated 3.06 that suggest a strong debt carrying capacity. The official document stated that Bangladesh has a solid and strong track record in debt service payments and the country's external debt stock is still reasonably low. Projected external debt stock stands at 53.5 billion USD at the end of FY21, which is 14.7 per cent of the projected GDP. The country's external debt service liability that includes amortisation of long term external debt and interest payments stands at 2.1 billion USD in FY21, which is 5.7 per cent of the projected export earnings and 3.6 percent of the projected revenue earnings in FY21. The World Bank-IMF joint Debt Sustainability Analysis (DA) in 2019 assessed the threshold level of external debt service liability for Bangladesh is 21 per cent of its export and 23 per cent of government revenue. This indicates that Bangladesh's external debt lies far below the danger level and the government has adequate repayment capability. “However, the government should remain vigilant against any external development including exchange rate risk,” the document mentioned. It said that the government usually provides guarantees/counter guarantees against loans incurred by the state-owned enterprises in line with government's priority sectors, such as power, energy,national aircraft carrier (i.e Biman Bangladesh Airlines Itd), and agriculture etc. These liabilities would come into effect only if the concerned enterprise fails to pay back the loan. Also read: High value public debt spent on nonproductive sector causes imbalance in economy: CPD As of May 2021, the face value of government guarantees/ counter guarantees stands at Tk. 1,066.6 billion and the outstanding amount of loan against those Guarantees is Tk. 738.4 billion, which is 2.1 percent of the projected GDP and 12.2 percent of the government expenditure in FY22. Power and Energy sector alone accounts for 58.5 per cent of the outstanding contingent liabilities followed by Bangladesh Biman and Agriculture sector as 14.8 per cent and 6.7 per cent respectively. Having such extent of contingent liabilities, the government has devised necessary monitoring system under a risk framework so that these guarantees do not turn into government liabilities. “Rigorous monitoring and sovereign guarantee/counter guarantee guidelines issued by the government are expected to keep the contingent liabilities in control.” The document stated that Implementation of the declared economic recovery program, providing adequate investment in the health sector including mass vaccination program, and implementation of expansionary monetary policy pursued by Bangladesh Bank would help for a sustainable economic recovery as the government has projected 7.2 per cent GDP growth in FY22. At the same time, projected overall implicit interest rate that is calculated from the projected debt stock and interest payments is 5.3. Favourable debt dynamics on the back of higher GDP growth compared to lower interest cost implied that projected government finance would not accumulate the public debt (Debt:GDP). Slight upward trend in the debt-GDP ratio due to the winding fiscal deficit during the economic recovery period will not be a cause for concern as the revenue collection will boost in the medium term when the economy get back to its normal level.

BNP on Thursday described the proposed national budget for 2021-22 FY as anti-poor one and said people’s debt burden will get heavier if it is implemented. The party also thinks the ruling party leaders and their relatives, not the marginalised poor people, will benefit from the new budget. “In the 50 years of independence, Awami League government has given the country a budget with a deficit of more than one-third. To fill this gap, the government will take loans from domestic and foreign sources. This is how the government is imposing an additional burden of debt on people,” said BNP standing committee member Dr Abdul Moyeen Khan. In an instant written reaction to the budget, he said the budget has been formulated with a 35.56 percent deficit which will be filled through taking loans from foreign or domestic sources. Also read: New budget unveiled with focus on protecting lives and livelihoods Dr Moyeen said their party tried in the past to take the country out of foreign-debt dependence. “On the other hand, the Awami League is repeatedly making the country's economy dependent on foreign loans due to their chaotic mega projects and mega corruption.” He said every child in the country is getting into debt before birth due to formulation of such budgets repeatedly by the Awami League government. “This year’s proposed budget has manifested that the government is imposing the burden of debt on the common people,” the BNP leader observed. Another BNP standing committee member Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury said the proposed budget is formulated without considering the interests and plights of marginal poor people in the country. “The extreme poor, day-labourers and those who work in the informal sector, including rickshaw-pullers, those who push carts, those who sell food and beverage and tea sellers, have been badly affected by coronavirus. But there’s no incentive or cash transfer measures for them in the budget,” he said. Also read: New budget: Tracking prices going up and down Talking to reporters at his Banani residence, the BNP leader also said the budget has been formulated to appease the ruling party leaders and their relatives. “This budget will help make their bank balances bigger.” He thinks the budgetary allocation for the health and education sectors are not enough at a time of a pandemic. Khosru said it is now imperative to protect people’s lives and livelihoods instead of spending money on mega projects. He said there should be an outline in the budget about how to protect the 5-6 crore people involved in the informal sector. “We must protect those who have lost jobs and are affected financially. Our party has earlier suggested allocating 7/8 percent of the GDP for giving them incentives. But we’ve seen that only 1/2 percent of GDP has been kept for them.”

Amid the rising number of new poor in Bangladesh due to the COVID-19 pandemic, economists suggest the government should go for a pro-poor national budget that safeguards both their lives and livelihoods. In line with that suggestion, they are urging the government to prioritize the social safety net, employment, small and medium enterprises (SMEs) as well as the health, education and agriculture sectors in the upcoming budget. They said the poor [particularly day labourers, hawkers, beggars, rootless people, security guards, maids, transport and restaurant workers and people affected by natural disasters] across Bangladesh have been facing emerging vulnerabilities escalating debt and declining savings one year into the pandemic.  Read Policy implementation needed for poverty eradication: Speakers According to the report of Power and Participation Research Centre (PPRC) and BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), the Covid-19 pandemic has caused 24.5 million new people to fall below the line of poverty between June 2020 and March 2021, and the debt burden has doubled for people living in both urban and rural areas. The majority of the new poor are to be found in the urban areas. “There was a 4% rise in extreme poverty within the study sample. Despite some recovery, national estimate of ‘new poor’ in March 2021 stood at 14.7% which translates into a population of 24.5 million,” the survey  titled One Year into the COVID-19 Crisis by PPRC and BIGD showed. The data also showed that households are faced with a 2nd wave crisis with significantly depleted coping capacity - savings depleted by 24% and 11% in rural and urban respectively. Meanwhile the debt burden doubled during the period for most groups. It is worth remembering that income drop for the poor and vulnerable was above 70% immediately after the 1st wave in March- April, 2020 according to the report. Also read: The shadow of coronavirus on Bangladesh’s poor “One year from the crisis, 50% of the ‘new poor’ remain stuck in poverty. However, 8% of pre-COVID employed were still unemployed in March 2021. Around half were in their pre-covid occupation but 41% had to move to another occupation. The unemployment rate remains high for skilled labour, salaried jobs and housemaids,” it also said. The data mentioned that 47% of the early migrants were non-poor before the pandemic and 57% of early migrants moved to other cities. On the other hand, one-third (61%) of late migrants were poor before the pandemic and majority (60%) of late migrants moved to villages. There was a 98% rise in non-food expenditure burden between June 2020 and March 2021. Besides, significant rises in all items such as Rent – 46%, Health –81%, Transportation – 104% and Utility – 51%, were recorded in the recent survey. Also read: Beggars passing days in increased hardship during lockdown It also showed that three drivers of vulnerability during covid crisis- Uncertainty of preferred employment, Non-food expenditure burdens – 98% rise in urban areas and near-absence of social protection support – help from government – 9% to 2%, NGOs - 3% to 1%, employer – 1% to 0%, and local community – 5% to 2% - all declined in the period. Executive Chairman of PPRC Dr Hossain Zillur Rahman said although social protection is playing only a token role in Covid response it is a critical priority. “Parallel to existing safety nets, there is urgent need for specific new and significant programs for urban poor and ‘new poor’ with effective targeting and leveraging technology,” he further added smart lockdown to avoid such a new income shock is both a health and an economic priority.” Read COVID-19 shatters Bangladesh's dream of eradicating poverty As a final policy message, the economist emphasized that to tackle women and ‘new poor’ caught in an emerging poverty trap due to vulnerability of the ‘meso-economy’ including CSME sector, a targeted and ‘big-push’ is necessary for which the study calls for an urgent national CSME recovery action plan. Talking to UNB, the research director of Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) Dr Khandaker Golam Moazzem appreciated the government taking different programmes to assist the poor during the pandemic. Though, he criticized the distribution level. "Someone takes assistance from the stimulus packages several times on the other hand someone is deprived of it. So, transparency should be ensured in the distribution level so that new poor get funds from the packages properly,” he added. Read Nations must work together to reverse setbacks to poverty ... The economist said there are a good number of Non Governmental organizations (NGOs) in the country who work with slum dwellers and rootless people. The government can take support from them to make an accurate list to provide funds in the right way. We need accountability to address it. So the government should work with them. “The impact of the coronavirus won’t depart from the country in the next two years. Poor people should be provided enough assistance two times in a single year.  So social safety net programmes should be prioritised more in the upcoming budget,” Moazzem said. Moazzem added that the national budget for FY2021-22 is being prepared in the backdrop of a number of disquieting developments in the economy- weak performance of FY2020-21 budget implementation, the persistence of adverse impacts of the first wave of COVID-19, continuing stagnation in private investment, the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, and failure of the external sector to pick-up. So, the upcoming budget will need to address these as also the medium-term fiscal reform issues with a view to making a recovery sustainable. Read Poor people to get highest priority in next budget: Finance Minister.

One year into the Covid-19 pandemic, the poor across Bangladesh are still struggling with their livelihoods and facing emerging vulnerabilities, like mounting debt and dwindling savings, a study finds. The situation of the urban slum dwellers in particular is dire, it says.  Also read:WB approves $200 million to help Dhaka support urban poor ... Power and Participation Research Centre (PPRC) and BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD) jointly conducted the national three-phase rapid telephonic survey between April 2020 and March 2021 to capture the changing poverty impact of the Covid-19 health and economic crisis on low-income communities.  According to the findings from the third phase survey titled ‘Poverty Dynamics and Household Realities’, with a sample of 6,099 households, the per capita income in urban slums is still 14 percent below pre-Covid levels.  Dr Hossain Zillur Rahman, Executive Chairman of PPRC, and Dr Imran Matin, Executive Director of BIGD, presented the findings in a webinar on Tuesday where they highlighted the evolving poverty dynamics and vulnerabilities in Bangladesh.  Among the economically vulnerable groups — namely the extreme and moderate poor, two groups below the poverty line, and the vulnerable non-poor or VNP, the group above the poverty line but below median national income — household incomes of the VNP have recovered the slowest.  Last June, the study found that the income of 72 percent of the VNP had sunk below the poverty line, who were then identified as the new poor. The percentage of new poor among the VNP is 50 percent at present, 59 percent in urban slums and 44 percent in rural areas. The study estimated that the new poor constituted 21.2 percent of the national population in June, now they constitute 14.8 percent, still a staggering number.      Employment scenario has improved from June, yet eight percent of those who were employed before COVID are currently unemployed. Also read:'Demand, supply need to be matched to ensure low-cost ... The trend is particularly concerning for women - a third of the women employed before COVID have remained unemployed since June.