South Asian Network on Economic Modelling
Evolving global order brings risks and opportunities for Bangladesh, economist Wahiduddin tells BIDS Conference
The evolving global order and changing geo-economic landscape present both challenges and opportunities for developing countries, as highlighted by renowned economist Wahiduddin Mahmud.
He shared his insights during a public lecture titled “Evolving Global Order and Geo-economics: Implications for Less Developed Countries” at the annual BIDS (Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies) conference in Dhaka.
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The session, moderated by Policy Research Institute Chairman Zaidi Sattar, featured discussions with key figures including Selim Raihan, Executive Director of SANEM (South Asian Network on Economic Modelling), and Dr. Binayak Sen, Director General of BIDS.
Mahmud emphasized the significance of strong public support for governments to align political and foreign economic interests effectively. He pointed out that this support is crucial in tackling the exploitation of developing countries by multinational companies. He also noted the distinct nature of the current geopolitical tensions between superpowers, particularly the US and China, compared to the Cold War era.
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Discussing the economic strategies of Vietnam and China, Mahmud illustrated how government involvement in privatized sectors can yield benefits.
Zaidi Sattar reflected on the shift from globalization to economic nationalism, observing that even advocates of globalization are adopting protectionist policies. This, he suggested, requires deep consideration by developing countries in crafting their economic strategies.
Selim Raihan commented on Bangladesh's historical non-involvement in geopolitics and its emerging role as a significant player amidst global power conflicts.
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Overall, the discussions at the BIDS conference underscored the need for developing countries like Bangladesh to carefully navigate the new global order, balancing internal economic policies with external geopolitical pressures.
1 year ago
68% of businesses yet to receive any stimulus: SANEM
Insufficient allocation, lengthy procedure, difficulty in bank-related services, and lack of information about the procedure left 68% of businesses unable to avail the government's stimulus package, the South Asian Network on Economic Modelling (Sanem) said Sunday.
However, effective implementation of the stimulus package is critically important and assessment is urgently required on the package implemented so far. The packages need to be redesigned and expanded amid the current wave of Covid-19, they said.
The government should undertake a sectoral approach to gauge the needs and identify the necessary policy measures for the worst affected industries such as leather and tannery, light engineering, transport, retails, restaurants, food processing, they added.
Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) should be a priority in channelling the loans and stimulus packages. Also, effective implementation of the stimulus package is critically important. An assessment is urgently required on the stimulus package implemented so far, the experts suggested.
Also read: SANEM finds 70% wage-earners in 4 dists. worse off in a year
The observations came up at the webinar "Covid-19 and business confidence in Bangladesh: Findings from the 4th round of a nationwide firm-level survey."
Sanem, in collaboration with Asia Foundation, initiated the quarterly Business Confidence Survey in July 2020.
The third round of the survey was conducted in January and the fourth round in April 2021, which covered 253 firms from the manufacturing sector and 250 from the services sector.
"The sectors that need priority are light engineering, transport, retail, and leather and tannery as their recovery rate is slow. The stimulus packages are having positive impacts on the firms' recovery," Sanem Executive Director Selim Raihan said.
Also read: SANEM survey: Population below poverty line doubled, extreme poor trebled in 2020
"The firms, on average, have been able to recover 57% of their damages occurred during this pandemic (March 2020 -March 2021), according to the survey. It shows the firms have not got back to the pre-pandemic situation, and it might take a while for them to be able to do so."
Selim said the business confidence for April-June 2021 deteriorated compared to the one during January-March 2021; posing a threat to future businesses.
The survey also found that the majority of the stimulus package recipient firms were from the manufacturing sector – 82.7% of all firms.
Amongst the industrial sectors, 58% of the RMG firms received the stimulus package, whereas this rate is 40% for the textile and 30% for the leather industry. Also, it was the large firms who had greater access to the stimulus package: 46% of the surveyed large firms received the stimulus package in contrast to 30% medium firms and 9% small firms.
Also read: Almost three quarters of firms yet to receive stimulus: SANEM
Former lead economist of the World Bank Dhaka Zahid Hussain said recovery across the economy has been experienced to some extent; however, it has not been uniform across all sectors.
"Time and again, it has been evident that large firms are at an advantage compared to micro and small firms. Large firms often have more influence and power, leading to better bargaining power and hence, giving them better access to stimulus packages," he added.
Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry President Rizwan Rahman said the central bank and monetary institutions must formulate strict guidelines for the banking sector to ensure that loans are disbursed to small and micro-enterprises.
3 years ago