Though the country faces economic challenges, the situation is not as critical as suggested by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said Finance Adviser Dr Salehuddin Ahmed on Thursday. “The IMF has expressed various apprehensions, but the economy is not as bleak as projected. However, there are undeniable challenges we must address,” he told reporters at the Secretariat. His remarks came as a 10-member IMF delegation is in Dhaka to review Bangladesh’s economic progress under the ongoing loan programme. Govt trying to keep prices of essentials tolerable till Ramadan: Finance Adviser The review is part of the preparation for the fourth tranche of funds. During discussions with government officials, the IMF noted that the economy is under pressure due to a range of factors, including political unrest, floods and contractionary policies. The IMF has predicted that Bangladesh’s growth rate could drop to 3.8% by the end of the year. It further highlighted slow economic activity and persistent inflationary pressures. Capital outflows from banks have added strain to foreign exchange reserves, the delegation said. The IMF delegation head, Chris Papageorgiou, offered a brighter outlook for the next fiscal year. Politics won’t affect trade ties with India: Finance Adviser He projected GDP growth to increase to 6.7%, with inflation falling to 5-6%, and emphasised the need for structural reforms, including tax reforms, strengthening the banking sector with a clear roadmap, and ensuring the central bank's independence. About the Beximco Group ‘bailout’, Dr Ahmed justified the move, citing humanitarian grounds. “The funds were necessary to ensure workers received their wages. Wrongdoers must be punished, but workers should not suffer.” Looking ahead, Dr Ahmed assured that the 2025-26 budget would focus on protecting the poor from tax burdens. He criticised certain business practices, stating, “Entrepreneurs are constantly seeking loopholes. Those with Tk 500 million in business refuse to pay Tk 40 million in taxes. This must change.” Meanwhile, the IMF confirmed that Bangladesh would receive $645 million from the fourth tranche of its loan programme by the end of February, with an equal amount due in the fifth tranche. Before disbursing the fifth tranche, another review is scheduled for March or April.  

The interim government has taken a move to expedite the implementation of the annual development programme (ADP) aiming to induce money flow in the economy. To expedite the implementation, the interim government has decided to put emphasis on the projects which have been cleared by them since coming to office on August 8. The government in principle took the decision at a recently held ECNEC meeting chaired by the Chief Adviser Professor Muhammad Yunus. Govt floats tender for 12 grid-tied solar plants in private sector The decision came following the record lowest ADP implementation rate of just 8 percent in the first four months of the running 2024-25 fiscal. According to the Planning Commission sources, directives have been given to accelerate implementation of the projects from now on. Planning Adviser Dr Wahiduddin Mahmud while briefing reporters about the recently held ECNEC meeting had said that the approved ADP projects by this government would be implemented quickly aiming to accelerate the implementation rate.  “By this way, hopefully we will be able to increase the implementation rate by the end of the running fiscal,” he said. But he said that the implementation would be done in a proper way. Planning Commission sources said that the government put special emphasis on the good and innovative projects which are corruption free initially, while implementation of the projects have to be corruption free from any aspect. The interim government thinks that the previous Awami League government took a number of projects at inflated value that resulted in irregularities during its implementation level, including during the appointment of the contractor. Illegal sand extraction in Feni continues despite political shift To prevent corruption and irregularities in the development projects, from the very beginning the interim government tried to stop wastage of public money, and corruption and cut short the number of projects numbers for which the implementation rate suffered a lot, causing a heavy toll on the money circulation in the economy. “We will definitely scrutinise the projects, we have taken the decision in principle that the good projects that we are thinking about and which got new project directors will be advanced in a speedy manner,” the Planning Adviser said. The interim government that came into office on August 8 following the student-people uprising has decided to cut short many development projects terming those as the politically motivated ones. The four months of the running fiscal saw a record low of 8 percent implementation of the development budget, according to the Implementation Monitoring and Evaluation Division (IMED) of the Planning Ministry.  The same period last year saw an execution rate of 11.54%. As per the information from the Planning Commission the rate is 12-13 percent for those government entities which implement projects from their own funding. Specifically, for the period from July to October of the current fiscal year, the government managed to implement development projects worth Tk 21,978 crore, according to the IMED. PDB can save US$1.2 billion annually through power sector reforms: IEEFA The Professor Muhammad Yunus led interim government in its first Ecnec meeting had decided to reduce the development budget. The National Economic Council (NEC) of the Awami League government approved the Annual Development Programme (ADP) for the fiscal year of 2024-2025 with an outlay of Tk 265,000 crores. The transport and communication sector got the highest allocation of Tk 70, 687.75 crore (26. 67pc of  budget allocation) in the ADP. With 13,288.91 crore ADP for autonomous bodies or corporations, the total size of ADP for 2024-2025 stood at Tk 278,288.91 crore.

The Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI) has said the economy has been gradually recovering despite the political instability after the July-August movement. In its quarterly economic review for July-September 2024 (Q1 of FY25) revealed on Thursday, the MCCI said the country saw improvements in exports, imports, remittances, and foreign exchange reserves despite many economic challenges during July-September. It has identified several pressing economic challenges including high inflation, declining external demand, a revenue shortfall, slow public expenditure, reduced job opportunities, and sluggish investment. The agriculture sector employed about 45% of the labor force and contributed 12.84% to GDP in Q4 of FY24, up from 9.41% in Q3 of FY24. Strong government support and favorable natural conditions, aside from localised flooding, enabled the sector to achieve a growth rate of 5.27% in Q4 of FY24, slightly higher than the 5.16% growth in Q3, said a press release. It said while data for Q1 of FY25 is pending, the industrial sector experienced slower growth of 3.98% in Q4 of FY24, down from 6.25% in Q3. The sector’s GDP share also fell to 35.38% in Q4 from 40.50% in Q3. The manufacturing sub-sector showed a similar trend, with growth declining to 6.45% in Q4 from 6.93% in Q3. The services sector grew by 3.67% in Q4 of FY24, slightly down from 3.81% in Q3. However, its GDP contribution increased to 51.78% in Q4, up from 50.09% in Q3, it added. Adani fraud allegations rock Indian Parliament as opposition demands probe into billionaire's firms Data from the Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) indicates that power generation reached a maximum of 15,717 MW on September 20, 2024. On September 30, actual generation was 13,176 MW against a demand of 13,946 MW, resulting in 340 MW of load shedding. Broad money (M2) growth slowed to 7.88% in September 2024, below the central bank’s target of 8.20%. Private sector credit grew by 9.20% year-on-year, falling short of the 9.80% target. Public sector credit growth plummeted to 8.75%, compared to 26.27% in September 2023. Tax revenue collection decreased by 6.07% year-on-year in Q1 of FY25, with significant shortfalls in VAT and customs revenue. Public expenditure also slowed, with ministries and divisions spending only 4.75% of the annual development program (ADP) allocation during the quarter, compared to 7.50% in the same period last year, it said. Export earnings grew by 7.62% year-on-year to $11.66 billion in Q1 of FY25, while imports rose by 1.64% to $16.17 billion. Remittances surged by 33.34% to $6.54 billion, driven by higher inflows in September 2024. Massive irregularities in banking, energy sectors detected: Debapriya General inflation eased slightly to 9.92% in September 2024 from 10.49% in August. Food inflation dropped to 10.40%, while non-food inflation stood at 9.50%. Rural areas were disproportionately affected by high inflation compared to urban regions. The Bangladeshi Taka depreciated by 1.67% against the US dollar between June and September 2024. Gross foreign exchange reserves stood at $24.86 billion in September, down from $26.91 billion a year earlier. Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows declined by 15.01% year-on-year to $300 million in Q1 of FY25. While signs of recovery are evident, significant challenges remain for Bangladesh’s economy, said MCCI. It stressed the need for addressing structural inefficiencies and improving governance will be crucial to sustaining growth in the coming quarters.  

South Korea’s central bank on Thursday lowered its key policy rate for the second straight month and said the country’s economy will grow at a slower pace than it initially anticipated. Following a meeting of its monetary policymakers, the Bank of Korea cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point to 3%. The bank lowered its outlook for the country’s economic growth from 2.4% to 2.2% for 2024 and from 2.1% to 1.9% for 2025. It was the second straight month that the bank took steps to lower borrowing costs and expand money supply, despite the lingering effects of high inflation and alarming levels of household debt, as concerns grow about a faltering economy. The bank had also slashed its policy rate by a quarter percentage point to 3.25% in October, which presented its first rate cut since May 2020, when the economy was grappling with the COVID-19 pandemic. The bank said the country’s trade-dependent economy is facing growing uncertainties in global economic trends and inflation, which it said could be impacted by the policies of the new U.S. government led by Donald Trump and ongoing geopolitical conflicts. 'Everything is expensive!' Bolivia faces a shocking economic collapse Since winning reelection, Trump has vowed to slap huge new tariffs on foreign products entering the United States, including those from Mexico, Canada and China, which he insists will create more domestic jobs and shrink the federal deficit. The Bank of Korea said South Korea’s economy has been losing its growth momentum amid weak domestic consumption, slowing exports and decreasing employment. “Going forward, domestic consumption will see a mild recovery, but the recovery in exports is likely to be weaker than initially anticipated due to intensifying competition and strengthening of protectionist trade policies in key industries,” the bank said in a statement.  

As Bangladesh’s interim government prepares economic reforms, a new survey from the Economic Intelligence Bangladesh (EIB) reveals that curbing corruption, controlling inflation, and rebuilding foreign exchange reserves are the nation's most critical priorities. The survey, conducted by The Business Standard in collaboration with DataSense in September 2024, gathered insights from 12 leading economists and academics across Bangladesh. A striking 42% of respondents identified fighting corruption and money laundering as the most urgent challenge, emphasizing its impact on the country’s economic stability. Prominent voices in the survey emphasized the pressing need to address corruption, with Professor Mustafizur Rahman, a distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), stressing the importance of legal action. "Corruption and money laundering can be checked by proactively making use of legal means to bring the perpetrators to justice," Rahman said. He also urged the government to partner with other nations to recover stolen assets and hire internationally recognized professionals in asset recovery. "Community groups can be organized to act as watchdogs against corruption," he added. With inflation straining household budgets, 25% of the economists identified controlling inflation as a priority. Former World Bank lead economist Zahid Hussain called for immediate intervention in the food supply chain. "The interim government must prioritise controlling essential food inflation, neutralise the syndicates on extortion in the supply chain and deter collusive practices by big players in markets such as rice, flour, lentil, onions, edible oil and such other essential items." Seventeen percent of respondents emphasized the importance of rebuilding Bangladesh’s foreign exchange reserves, which have been depleted amid global economic challenges. Dr. M A Razzaque, chairman of the Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID), stressed the need for a market-friendly exchange rate system alongside anti-corruption measures. "Money gathered through corrupt practices is often siphoned off abroad, putting additional pressure on our reserves," he warned. Razzaque also advocated for renegotiating loan terms to ease repayment pressures and securing concessional loans with longer grace periods to support export sector development. A diversified export structure, supported by tariff rationalization, will be critical to increasing export earnings, he said. Attracting foreign investment, especially in the export sector, should also be a priority, he added. Economists involved in the survey agree that immediate and decisive action is crucial to stabilize the economy and foster long-term growth. The consensus highlights the need for comprehensive reforms to address corruption, reduce inflation, and restore foreign reserves, setting the stage for sustainable development in Bangladesh.  

The main opposition Jatiya Party lawmaker Anisul Islam Mahmud on Tuesday (February 13, 2024) demanded the government of Bangladesh put an end to the loan default culture to save the country’s economy. “In this situation, we need to stop the culture of wilful loan default,” he said. Anisul Islam, a veteran parliamentarian and the deputy leader of the opposition, placed the demand in the House, taking the floor on a point of order. Citing a newspaper story, he said the banking sector's defaulted loans soared by over 20 percent to Tk 145,633 crore in 2023 as both governance and accountability continue to get looser. 98 percent of the country's demand for medicine is produced locally: Health Minister “Whenever this issue is being discussed, we are told that Bangladesh Bank and other banks are taking measures to reduce this (defaulted loans). But we never see that defaulted loans are declining, rather it is going higher,” he said. The Jatiya Party MP said the amount of defaulted loans was Tk 28,000 crore as of 2008. The number of defaulted loans has increased to Tk 1.45 lac crore since 2008 to as of today which is very alarming. He said there is a cash crisis and a dollar crisis in the banking sector. Some strong measures have been taken to tackle this situation. With Pahela Falgun-Valentine’s Day, the nation eyes a festive February 14 Anisul said Bangladesh Bank (BB) is telling that they want to reduce the amount of defaulted loans from existing nine percent to eight percent of total outstanding loans.   “But their (BB) track record says that they will not do so,” he continued. The opposition lawmaker requested the Finance Minister to give importance to stopping the loan default culture. “The issue of loan default culture has been discussed in parliament so many times. But nothing has happened,” he added. Govt okays project to provide freelancing training to youths in 48 districts

Executive Director, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) Dr Fahmida Khatun on Sunday provided an idea regarding the current picture of Bangladesh’s economy by stressing on the challenges at first. She divided the obstacles that are currently being faced by the country’s economy into two types- short term or immediate term problems and medium or structural problems. Dr Fahmida particularly mentioned the high inflation rate and low rate of foreign exchanges. Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS) organized the policy circle titled “Bangladesh: The Economy Under Stress” in Dhaka. The discussion focused on examining the present condition of Bangladesh’s economy and other associated factors. Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, East West University Parvez Karim Abbasi also spoke at the event. Major General ANM Muniruzzaman (Retd), President of BIPSS, moderated the event. Foreign exchange reserve is declining in the country. In a question from the moderator if the declining foreign reserve might have an impact on the food security, Dr Fahmida said, saying that a decline in foreign exchange reserve will not only affect the food security but it will also effect the sustainability of the energy security. Biman Dreamliner returns to Dhaka due to cockpit windshield crack She pointed out that due to the Russia-Ukraine war, the supply chain has been disrupted globally and the condition of Bangladesh’s economy is no exception as it is integrated with global economy. "Bangladesh has experienced and is still experiencing high inflation,” she said. Dr Fahmida also highlighted that Bangladesh’s reliance on imports is exacerbating the current economic challenges. She mentioned that in the last year the country has witnessed very little FDI which is not sufficient. She cited that according to a research study conducted by CPD, 67% people surveyed in the private sector felt that corruption is the number one hindrance to doing good business in Bangladesh. She even conveyed a sense of concern as both exports and flow of remittance in the country have been decreasing. Again, she voiced apprehension about how the dominance of businessmen is being prevalent in the politics of the country and how good politics has ended overtime due to this. Parvez Karim Abbasi focused on the issue of rising income inequality among the citizens of Bangladesh. He brought up the point that the poverty rate affects 1 out of every 7 individuals of the country. This clearly shows a great disparity in terms of income level and wealth concentration. Gas supply to improve in Dhaka, adjacent areas in a day or two : Nasrul He also mentioned that the rising level of unemployment among youth is constraining the possibilities of upgrading the current economic condition of the country as substantial portion of the labor force of Bangladesh is made up of youth. “Roughly 36% of our labor force comprises people between 18 to 30 years of age”, he said. Parvez also underscored the significance of various other factors such as rising public debt, non-performing loans, systematic weaknesses in the banking sector etc. which are contributing to the decline of economic growth of the country. In his opinion, focus should be on the RMG sector and increasing the flow of remittance as these two important sectors are in threatening condition. The interactive session covered some critical assumptions and exchange of conversations among the honorable guests and the panelists including redefining poverty, ways to solve the economic stress, inflation and mega-projects. Questions were raised about banking sector governance and how important it is to bring back discipline in this sector. Concerns were also raised about the high volume of non-performing loans. Bangladesh now has over 12.17 crore voters: EC's latest draft update The panelists felt that this should be curbed with proper regulatory mechanisms and controlled by the central bank. They also felt that one of the reasons for a lower flow of remittances is the fluctuations in the rate of foreign currency. Muniruzzaman wrapped up the session by articulating that the current economic challenges can be overcome by ensuring accountability, transparency and establishing democratic governance. Ambassadors and Diplomats based in Dhaka, former Bangladeshi Ambassadors, representatives from international and business organizations, academicians and journalists attended the event.

Bangladesh’s three big challenges in the fields of economy, international relations, and politics are likely to get deeper centering the January 7 parliamentary elections, Dr. Debapriya Bhattacharya, distinguished fellow of Centre for Policy Dialogue has said. “Bangladesh today stands on the edge of a deep ditch,” he said adding that the problems faced by the country are likely to worsen if the upcoming polls become one-sided. The eminent economist shared his views on a wide range of issues from ongoing political unrest to economic situation and to international interest in an interview with UNB in Dhaka this week. 208 vehicles set on fire across the country since Oct 28 Political unrest and a one-party election will deepen the uncertainty in the economic sector further as around 80 percent population of Bangladesh wants a fair and internationally acceptable election that is very much needed for sustainable economic growth, Dr Debapriya said. Regarding elections without the participation of big political parties, he said the Election Commission is creating political parties giving registration as per their wish. The country is now getting the attention of global powers as they have different interests here. They are watching whether the upcoming election will be like previous ones or inclusive and participatory. Regarding economic challenges, he said people have been bearing the brunt of inflation for a long time, while many countries have improved in this sector after the pandemic and during the Russia-Ukraine war. Here the food inflation is around 12 percent and inflation in rural areas is more than in the urban areas, which was not seen earlier, he noted. Tilted Ctg building: 7-member probe body formed According to him due to the continuous slide of the domestic currency taka, people have to face imported inflation.  There is no visible sign of reducing this type of inflation in the recent months, Dr Debapriya said. He said the revenue generation fell severely due to an import decrease by one-fourth in recent past years. He said the inefficiency of the revenue board has resulted in low collection of revenue.  The government cannot implement already promised development work at the local government level, even in the election year, he mentioned. This stagnation will not go until an inclusive and free fair parliamentary election, which is necessary to establish accountability in every sector- is held, he said. He said the drastic fall of imports pushed price hikes in the domestic market and a group of syndicates using this as an option for raising prices. The revenue shortfall is widening, corruption and money laundering not reducing despite raising individual and overall income, which is happening due to lack of accountability. The government cannot ensure accountability at the top to bottom level as they are dependent on bureaucrats and state agencies in absence of political and moral legality, he pointed out. Not only that but also some influential countries are interfering in the domestic matter of Bangladesh, which never happened earlier. All of these are the outcome of faulty elections here and they (foreigners) are taking political disagreement and lack of moral legality of the government as an opportunity, he opined. Regarding the legitimacy of past elections Dr Debapriya said those elections had been legal in consideration of the constitution, but there was a lack of political and moral legality, he said. 20-year-old dies falling from 8-storey building in Dhaka’s Sher-e-Bangla Nagar A country becomes stronger when its independent state organs are strengthened, he said adding in Bangladesh both the constitutional institutions and other state agencies are playing a biased role. Regarding labour rights, Dr Debapriya said the Western world expresses concern over the working environment, illegal harassment, and forced disappearance of labour rights activists. Western people, who are the buyers of Bangladeshi garments and other goods, are very much conscious and concerned about these issues.   Bangladesh has to reform many areas, such as recovery of huge defaulted loans, reduce money laundering, ensure decent working environment and express their views without fear, he said. In the diplomatic sector, the country has to balance with global power keeping in mind that export destination of Bangladeshi goods, manpower, and remittances.

Bangladesh received inward remittances of $1.97 billion in July, the first month of Fiscal year 2023-24, which saw a decline on year-on-year basis by 5.86 percent. According to Bangladesh Bank (BB) data, the expatriates sent $2.19 billion remittance in June last month of FY23, saw a fall by 10.27 percent in July. Despite the fall in remittance inflow in July, the central bank officials described it as better than other months. $21.61 billion remittances in FY23, second highest ever Md Sarwar Hossain, a spokesman of the BB, told UNB that the expatriates sent a higher volume of remittances in June thanks to  Eid-ul-Azha. Bangladeshi expatriates sent $21.61 billion in remittance in the last fiscal year FY23 (June-July). In the previous FY it was $21.03 billion. Remittances pick up pace ahead of Eid-ul-Azha

To address the present crisis on the economic front and ensure resilient, inclusive, and sustainable growth, the government of Bangladesh has adopted several reform initiatives to be implemented in the medium term (2025-26). The significant reform actions include: Revenue Mobilisation, Improved Expenditure Management, Monetary and External Sector Management, Financial Market Regulation and National Income Accounts, according to a budget document. The government has focused on reforms in tax policy and revenue administration. The plan is to mobilise additional tax revenue of about 1.7 percent of GDP by the end of FY 2025-26. Currently, the tax-to- GDP in the country is below ten percent. Read: Bangladesh’s economy has a dignified position now: PM Moreover, the government is focusing on untapped areas in the tax-revenue sector to enhance overall revenue while also emphasising non-tax revenue sources. The document states that fiscal management has become increasingly complex due to elevated and unpredictable inflation that has the potential to undermine the soundness of financial institutions and fiscal operations. The uncertainty surrounding prices, wages, and interest rates influence inflation through aggregate demand and expectations, which in turn posed challenges to fiscal planning and budgetary preparations. Read: 1st Circular Economy Summit in Dhaka on June 15 Besides rationalising the subsidies, there is a plan to bring down the cost of borrowing and bring efficiency in debt management, the document said. It said that the net National Savings Certificate (NSC) issuance is planned to be brought down to below 1⁄4 of total net domestic financing by FY26. The government plans to optimise cash management by expanding the coverage of the treasury single account (TSA) and the use of electronic funds transfer (EFT). Read: Govt to introduce circular economy to prevent plastic pollution: Minister    Several reform measures have been implemented including the reduction of interest rates of saving certificates, the introduction of tiered interest rates, capping issuances, and increasing taxes on earned interest, all aimed at reducing the government's interest expenditure. In FY 2021-22, the contribution from national savings certificates accounted for 0.5 percent of GDP, a decrease from 1.2 percent in FY 2020-21. Efficient cash management is also a priority to save public funds by minimising interest expenditure. To achieve this, the government is strengthening and expanding the Treasury Single Account (TSA), which is expected to facilitate better cash management, reduce interest expenses, and improve commitment controls. Read more: Increased import costs putting pressure on economy in many ways: Minister In the Monetary and External Sector Management segment, to improve monetary operations, Bangladesh Bank will adopt an interest rate corridor system. Furthermore, to increase exchange rate flexibility, Bangladesh Bank will use market-determined exchange rates for official foreign exchange transactions on behalf of the government. To strengthen the external sector balance and improve monetary sector performance, Bangladesh Bank is going to implement several reform initiatives in the medium term. Read more: Budget not based on IMF conditions: Finance Minister There will be reform activities to unify the multiple exchange rates and bring more discipline to the foreign exchange market. Bangladesh Bank will reverse the temporary margin increases for opening letters of credit on nonessential imports. The official budget document says that “With a view to establishing a risk-based banking supervision system, Bangladesh Bank will complete the pilot risk-based supervision action plan.” Read more: CPD dismisses budget's projections on growth, inflation, revenue collection Also, it mentions that to improve governance and discipline in the financial market, the government will amend the Bank Companies Act and Finance Companies Act in line with best practices. The amended Bank Companies Act was accordingly passed last week. For better transparency, Bangladesh Bank will publish banks' distressed assets in the annual financial stability report. Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics has taken the initiative to publish quarterly GDP for having a clear view of national income accounts. Read more: Doing our best to keep economy going amid global recession: PM Hasina