Asia
India's Modi is set to open a controversial temple in Ayodhya in a grand event months before polls
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday (January 22, 2024) was set to open a contentious Hindu temple built on the ruins of an ancient mosque in the holy city of Ayodhya. The grand event, which will be attended by thousands, is expected to benefit the Indian leader in the polls just months before a general election.
The inauguration of the temple, which is still under construction, is dedicated to Hinduism’s most revered deity Lord Ram. It fulfills a demand made by millions of Hindus for over 100 years and delivers on a crucial campaign pledge from Modi and his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party.
Ayodhya, once dotted with tightly packed houses and rundown stalls, has undergone an elaborate makeover in the lead up to the inauguration. Narrow roads have been turned into a four-lane pilgrimage route leading to the temple, tourists are arriving at a new airport and sprawling railway station, and major hotel chains are building new properties.
On Monday morning, the mood in the city was jubilant. Devotees from across the country have arrived to celebrate the opening, with groups of them dancing to religious songs that blare from speakers on roads bedecked with flowers. Huge cut-outs of Lord Ram and billboards of Modi are ubiquitous across Ayodhya, where the borders have been sealed to prevent more people from coming in. Some 20,000 security personnel and more than 10,000 CCTV cameras have been deployed.
Harish Joshi arrived in Ayodhya from Uttarakhand state four days before the ceremony, hopeful that he may be able to get a glimpse of the ceremony. “I am here to see history unfolding before our eyes. For centuries, the story of Lord Ram has resonated in the hearts of millions," he said.
Read more: Ancient Temples of Bangladesh: Remembering Their Past Glory
The prime minister, alongside several Hindu priests, will attend the consecration ceremony later on Monday, for which a 1.3-meter (4.25-foot) stone sculpture of Lord Ram was installed in the temple’s inner sanctum. Overall, nearly 7,500 people, including the country’s most elite industrialists, politicians and movie stars, are also expected to attend.
Analysts and critics see Monday’s ceremony as the start of the election campaign for Modi, an avowed nationalist and one of India’s most consequential leaders who has sought to transform the country from a secular democracy into a distinctly Hindu state in his nearly 10 years in power.
The temple, located at one of India’s most vexed religious sites, is expected to embolden Modi’s chances of clinching a record third successive term by drawing on the religious sentiments of Hindus, who make up 80% of India’s population of 1.4 billion.
Built at an estimated cost of $217 million and spread over nearly 3 hectares (7.4 acres), the temple lies atop the debris of a 16th-century mosque. It was razed to the ground in 1992 by Hindu mobs who believed the Babri Mosque was built on temple ruins that marked the birthplace of Lord Ram.
The site has long been an intense religious flashpoint for the two communities, with the demolition of the mosque triggering bloody riots across India that killed 2,000 people, mostly Muslims.
Read more: A Hindu temple built atop a razed mosque in India is helping Modi boost his political standing
The dispute ended in 2019 when, in a controversial decision, India’s Supreme Court called the mosque’s destruction “an egregious violation” of the law, but granted the site to Hindus while giving Muslims a different plot of land.
The fraught history is still an open wound for many Muslims, who see the construction of the temple as a testament to Modi’s Hindu-first politics.
Officials say the temple, a three-story structure etched out of pink sandstone, will open to the public after the ceremony and they expect 100,000 devotees to visit daily. Builders are still working to finish 46 elaborate doors and intricate wall carvings.
The inauguration has morphed into a massive national event.
Modi’s government has planned live screenings across the country and even movie theaters in some cities will broadcast the event while offering free popcorn. BJP workers have gone door to door handing out religious flags, while Modi has encouraged people to celebrate by lighting lamps at homes and in local shrines. His government announced a half-day closure on Monday for all its offices, and numerous states have declared it a public holiday. Even the stock and money markets are closed for the day.
But not all are rejoicing. Four key Hindu religious authorities have refused to attend, saying consecrating an unfinished temple goes against Hindu scriptures. Some top leaders from India’s main opposition Congress party are also boycotting the event, with many opposition lawmakers accusing Modi of exploiting the temple for political points.
Read more: What's the significance of Ram Mandir in Ayodhya?
Two survivors rescued after landslide buried homes in freezing weather in southwest China, 11 died
At least 11 people died in a landslide Monday that buried 47 people in freezing weather in a remote mountainous area in southwestern China, and two survivors were rescued.
The disaster struck just before 6 a.m. in the village of Liangshui in the northeastern part of Yunnan province. By 10 p.m., 11 bodies had been retrieved and about 500 people were evacuated from the area.
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Rescue crews continued to try and find victims who were buried in about 18 homes, the Zhenxiong county publicity department said. Reports said the 11 bodies were from the group that was initially buried by the landslide.
State news agency Xinhua, citing a preliminary investigation by local experts, said the landslide was triggered by the collapse of a steep cliff-top area, with the collapsed mass measuring around 100 meters wide, 60 meters in height, and about an average of 6 meters in thickness. It did not elaborate what caused the initial collapse.
Rescuers struggled with snow, icy roads and freezing temperatures that were forecast to persist for at least the next three days.
Luo Dongmei, 35, was sleeping when the landslide struck, but she survived and was relocated to a school building by local authorities.
“I was asleep, but my brother knocked on the door and woke me up. They said there was a landslide and the bed was shaking, so they rushed upstairs and woke us up,” Luo said.
Luo, her husband and their three children, along with many other residents, have been provided with food at the school but are still waiting for blankets and other protection from the cold weather, she said.
Luo said she's been unable to contact her sister and aunt, who lived closer to the site of the landslide. “The only thing I can do is to wait,” she said.
Zhengxiong county lies about 2,250 kilometers (1,400 miles) southwest of Beijing, with altitudes ranging as high as 2,400 meters (7,900 feet).
Heavy snow has been falling in many parts of China, causing transportation chaos and endangering lives.
Read: Thousands forced from homes by quake face stress and exhaustion as Japan mourns at least 161 deaths
Last week, rescuers evacuated tourists from a remote skiing area in northwestern China where dozens of avalanches triggered by heavy snow had trapped more than 1,000 people for a week. The avalanches blocked roads, stranding both tourists and residents in a village in Altay prefecture in the Xinjiang region, close to China’s border with Mongolia, Russia and Kazakhstan.
Landslides, often caused by rain or unsafe construction work, are not uncommon in China. At least 70 people were killed in landslides last year, including more than 50 at an open pit mine in China's Inner Mongolia region.
In all, natural disasters in China left 691 people dead and missing and last year, causing direct economic losses of about 345 billion yuan ($48 billion, according to the National Commission for Disaster Reduction and the Ministry of Emergency Management. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Natural Resources enacted emergency response measures for geological disasters and sent a work team of experts to the site.
Minister of Emergency Management Wang Xiangxi has traveled to the landslide site to guide rescue operations, according to a statement from the ministry.
The landslide in Yunnan also came just over a month after China’s most powerful earthquake in years struck the northwest in a remote region between Gansu and Qinghai province. At least 149 people were killed in the magnitude 6.2 temblor that struck on Dec. 18, reducing homes to rubble and triggering heavy mudslides that inundated two villages in Qinghai province.
Nearly 1,000 people were injured and more than 14,000 homes were destroyed in what was China’s deadliest earthquake in nine years.
Iranian soldier kills 5 comrades in southeastern city where IS attack killed dozens, state TV says
An Iranian soldier opened fire on fellow soldiers Sunday, killing five of them in the southeastern city of Kerman, where 94 people were killed in a bombing attack earlier this month, Iranian state TV reported.
State TV said the shooting happened when the soldier arrived at a barracks dormitory and opened fire on the resting soldiers. It said the motive wasn't immediately clear and the suspect, who wasn't identified, was at large. No other details were released.
The report said the attack took place in Kerman some 830 kilometers (515 miles), southeast of the capital Tehran.
Read: Strike kills Hezbollah fighter, civilian in Lebanon, amid seeming Israeli shift to targeted killings
Kerman was the scene of two deadly explosions earlier this month that killed 94 people and wounded hundreds of others during an anniversary ceremony for the death of an Iranian general killed in a 2020 U.S. drone strike in Iraq. The Islamic State group claimed responsibility.
Similar shootings at military bases have been occasionally reported in Iran. In 2022, a soldier killed another soldier and three policemen at a roadside police station in the country's south.
Military service of up to 24 months is mandatory for men aged 19 and above in Iran.
Read more: Palestinian death toll in Gaza surpasses 25,000 while Israel announces the death of another hostage
A Hindu temple built atop a razed mosque in India is helping Modi boost his political standing
Three decades after Hindu mobs tore down a historical mosque, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will attend the consecration of a grand Hindu temple at the same site on Monday in a political move to boost his party ahead of a crucial national vote.
Experts say the temple, dedicated to Hinduism’s most revered deity Lord Ram, will cement Modi’s legacy — enduring but also contentious — as one of India’s most consequential leaders, who has sought to transform the country from a secular democracy into an avowedly Hindu nation.
“Right from the beginning, Modi was driven by marking his permanency in history. He has ensured this with the Ram Temple,” said Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay, an expert in Hindu nationalism and author of a book on Modi.
Many see the temple's opening as the beginning of the election campaign for Modi, an avowed nationalist who has been widely accused of espousing Hindu supremacy in an officially secular India. Modi’s Hindu nationalist party is expected to once again exploit religion for political gain in the upcoming national elections in April or May and secure power for a third consecutive term.
Made into a national event by the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, the temple’s opening in Ayodhya — a small city in northern India that has been a historical flashpoint — is expected to resonate deeply with Hindu voters.
Many of Modi's supporters see him as responsible for restoring Hindu pride in India, where Muslims make up a little more than 14% of the population.
“What is being done in Ayodhya, the kind of scale at which it is being built at the moment is actually going to make it look like the Hindu Vatican, and that is what is going to be publicized,” Mukhopadhyay said. “Modi is not going to lose a single opportunity to try to sell the accomplishment of having built a temple.”
Built at an estimated cost of $217 million, Ram Temple is central to Hindus who believe the Lord Ram was born at the exact spot where Mughal Muslims built Babri Mosque in the 16th century on top of temple ruins. The mosque was demolished by Hindu mobs in December 1992, sparking nationwide riots that killed more than 2,000 people, mostly Muslims. It set in motion events that redefined the politics of social identity in India and catapulted Modi’s BJP from two parliamentary seats in the 1980s to its current political dominance.
In the early 1990s, then a little-known local leader in his native Gujarat state, Modi also helped organize public agitation that aimed to shore up support for the construction of what is now Ram Temple at the former Babri Mosque site.
Muslim groups waged a decadeslong court battle for the restoration of Babri Mosque. The dispute ended in 2019 when, in a controversial decision, India’s Supreme Court called the mosque’s destruction “an egregious violation of the rule of law,” but granted the site to Hindus. The court granted Muslims a different plot of land in an isolated area.
That fraught history is still an open wound for many Muslims, and some say the temple is the biggest political testament yet to Hindu supremacy.
“There is a fear that this government and all the affiliates, they want to wipe out all traces of Muslim or Islamic civilization from the country," said Ziya Us Salam, author of the book “Being Muslim in Hindu India.”
Indian Muslims have increasingly come under attack in recent years by Hindu nationalist groups, and at least three historical mosques in northern India are embroiled in court disputes due to claims made by Hindu nationalists who say they were built over temple ruins. Hindu nationalists have also filed numerous cases in Indian courts seeking ownership of hundreds of historic mosques.
"On the one side, they want to change names of all cities which have a Muslim-sounding name. On the other side, they want to get rid of virtually every mosque, and the courts are happy to accept petitions on whatever pretext,” Salam said.
Rebuilding the temple at the disputed site has been part of BJP's election strategy for decades, but it was Modi — rising to power in 2014 on a wave of Hindu revivalism — who finally oversaw that promise after attending its groundbreaking ceremony in 2020.
In the lead-up to its opening, Modi asked people to celebrate across the country by lighting lamps at homes and in local shrines, saying the temple will be a symbol of “cultural, spiritual, and social unity.” His government has also announced a half-day closure of all its offices Monday to allow employees participate in the celebrations. Modi has released postage stamps on Ram Temple, and live screenings of the ceremony are planned across the country.
In many cities and towns, saffron-colored flags, a symbol of Hindu nationalism, have become ubiquitous. A number of other politicians, high profile movie stars, and industrialists are also expected to attend.
But the event will also be marked by some conspicuous absences.
Some opposition leaders are boycotting the ceremony, while denouncing it as a political gimmick and accusing the government of exploiting religion for political gain. Four key Hindu religious authorities have refused to go the opening, with two of them saying consecrating an unfinished temple goes against Hindu scriptures, and that Modi is not a religious leader and therefore not qualified to lead the ceremony.
Salam said Modi has erased a line between the state and the religion by making his faith a public exhibition that has energized his hardcore supporters.
“When was the last time he acted as a prime minister? There have been so many instances where he has just behaved either as a BJP leader or as a Hindutva mascot, seldom as the prime minister of India,” Salam said.
13 reported killed in dorm fire at boarding school for elementary students in China's Henan province
A fire broke out in dorms at a boarding school for elementary students in central Henan province, and 13 people died in the blaze, China's state broadcaster CCTV reported Saturday.
It was not immediately clear how many of the dead were students. One person rescued from the scene was being treated in the hospital, CCTV said.
The fire started Friday night and was put out just before midnight at the Yingcai school in rural Fangcheng district in central Henan, CCTV reported.
The boarding school caters primarily to students in the elementary grades, though it has an attached kindergten, according to the school's Wechat page. Many of the boarding students come from rural areas, the Beijing Youth Daily reported.
The facility is in Dushu township and is one of the school's two branches.
The school's owner was detained, CCTV reported.
Japan becomes the fifth country to land a spacecraft on the moon
Japan became the fifth country in history to reach the moon when one of its spacecrafts without astronauts successfully made a soft landing on the lunar surface early Saturday.
However, space officials said they need more time to analyze whether the Smart Lander for Investigating Moon, or SLIM, achieved its mission priority of making a pinpoint landing. They also said the craft's solar panel had failed to generate power, which could shorten its activity on the moon.
Space officials believe the SLIM's small rovers were launched as planned and that data was being transmitted back to Earth, said Hitoshi Kuninaka, head of the Institute of Space and Astronautical Science, a unit of Japan's space agency.
But he said that SLIM's solar battery wasn't generating power and that it had only a few more hours of battery life. He said that the priority now was for the craft to gather as much data about its landing and the moon as possible on the remaining battery.
Japan follows the United States, the Soviet Union, China and India in reaching the moon.
Kuninaka said he believes that Japan's space program at least achieved “minimum” success.
SLIM landed on the moon at about 12:20 a.m. Tokyo time on Saturday (1520 GMT Friday).
There was a tense wait for news after the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency's mission control initially said that SLIM was on the lunar surface, but that it was still “checking its status.” No further details were given until a news conference nearly two hours later.
For the mission to be considered fully successful, space officials need to confirm whether SLIM made a pinpoint landing. Kuninaka said that while more time is needed, he personally thinks it was most likely achieved, based on his observation of data showing the spacecraft's movement until the landing and its ability to transmit signals after landing.
Read: India launches spacecraft to study the sun after successful landing near the moon's south pole
SLIM, which was aiming to hit a very small target, is a lightweight spacecraft about the size of a passenger vehicle. It was using “pinpoint landing” technology that promises far greater control than any previous moon landing.
While most previous probes have used landing zones about 10 kilometers (six miles) wide, SLIM was aiming at a target of just 100 meters (330 feet).
A landing of such precision would be a world's first, and would be crucial technology for a sustainable, long-term and accurate space probe system, said Hiroshi Yamakawa, president of Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, or JAXA.
Japan needs the technology to secure its place and contribute in international space projects, Yamakawa said.
The project was the fruit of two decades of work on precision technology by JAXA.
SLIM, nicknamed "the Moon Sniper," started its descent at midnight Saturday, and within 15 minutes it was down to about 10 kilometers (six miles) above the lunar surface, according to the space agency, which is known as JAXA.
At an altitude of five kilometers (three miles), the lander was in a vertical descent mode, then at 50 meters (165 feet) above the surface, SLIM was supposed to make a parallel movement to find a safe landing spot, JAXA said.
Read: India becomes the fourth country to successfully land a spacecraft on the moon
The spacecraft was testing technology to allow moon missions to land “where we want to, rather than where it is easy to land,” JAXA has said. The spacecraft also was supposed to seek clues about the origin of the moon, including analyzing minerals with a special camera.
The SLIM, equipped with a pad each on its five legs to cushion impact, was aiming to land near the Shioli crater, near a region covered in volcanic rock.
The closely watched mission came only 10 days after a moon mission by a U.S. private company failed when the spacecraft developed a fuel leak hours after the launch.
SLIM was launched on a Mitsubishi Heavy H2A rocket in September. It initially orbited Earth and entered lunar orbit on Dec. 25.
Japan hopes to regain confidence for its space technology after a number of failures. A spacecraft designed by a Japanese company crashed during a lunar landing attempt in April, and a new flagship rocket failed its debut launch in March.
JAXA has a track record with difficult landings. Its Hayabusa2 spacecraft, launched in 2014, touched down twice on the 900-meter-long (3,000-foot-long) asteroid Ryugu, collecting samples that were returned to Earth.
A successful pinpoint landing by SLIM, especially on the moon, would raise Japan's profile in the global space technology race.
Takeshi Tsuchiya, aeronautics professor at the Graduate School of Engineering at the University of Tokyo, said it was important to confirm the accuracy of landing on a targeted area.
“It is necessary to show the world that Japan has the appropriate technology in order to be able to properly assert Japan's position in lunar development,” he said. The moon is important from the perspective of explorations of resources, and it can also be used as a base to go to other planets, like Mars, he said.
Read more: India's spacecraft is preparing to land on the moon in the country's second attempt in 4 years
SLIM was carrying two small autonomous probes — lunar excursion vehicles LEV-1 and LEV-2, which officials say were believed to have been released just before landing.
LEV-1, equipped with an antenna and a camera, is tasked with recording SLIM's landing. LEV-2, is a ball-shaped rover equipped with two cameras, developed by JAXA together with Sony, toymaker Tomy and Doshisha University.
Pakistan launches retaliatory airstrikes on Iran
Pakistan’s air force launched retaliatory airstrikes early Thursday on Iran. The strikes in Sistan and Baluchestan province follow Iran’s attack Tuesday on Pakistani soil that killed two children in the southwestern Baluchistan province.
The strikes imperil diplomatic relations between the two neighbors, as Iran and nuclear-armed Pakistan have long regarded each other with suspicion over militant attacks.
The attacks also raised the threat of violence spreading in a Middle East unsettled by Israel’s war with Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Iran also staged airstrikes late Monday in Iraq and Syria over an Islamic State-claimed suicide bombing that killed over 90 people earlier this month. Iraq has recalled its ambassador from Iran for consultations.
Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry described their attack as “a series of highly coordinated and specifically targeted precision military strikes.”
“This morning’s action was taken in light of credible intelligence of impending large scale terrorist activities,” the Foreign Ministry said in a statement. “This action is a manifestation of Pakistan’s unflinching resolve to protect and defend its national security against all threats.”
Several insurgent groups operate in Iran and Pakistan, including the Jaish al-Adl Sunni separatist group that was targeted by Tehran in its own strike. They all have a common goal of an independent Baluchistan for ethnic Baluch areas in Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan.
Pakistan’s Baluchistan province, as well as Iran’s neighboring Sistan and Baluchestan province, have faced a low-level insurgency by Baluch nationalists for more than two decades.
Pakistan named its operation “Marg Bar Sarmachar.” In Iranian Farsi, “marg bar” means “death to” — and is a famous saying in Iran since its 1979 Islamic Revolution used to refer to both the United States and Israel. In the local Baluch language, “sarmachar” means guerrilla and is used by the militants operating in the cross-border region.
A deputy governor of Iran's Sistan and Baluchestan province, Ali Reza Marhamati, gave the casualty figures from Thursday's strike in a telephone interview, saying the dead included three women and four children near the town of Saravan along the border in Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan province. He added that the dead were not Iranian citizens and acknowledged a separate blast near Saravan as well.
HalVash, an advocacy group for the Baluch people, shared images online that appeared to show the remains of the munitions used in the attack. It said a number of homes had been struck in Saravan. It shared videos showing a mud-walled building destroyed and smoke rising over the strike immediately after.
Thursday's development came a day after Pakistan recalled its ambassador to Tehran because of Tuesday's strikes by Iran inside Pakistan's southwestern Baluchistan province. Iran claimed it targeted bases for a militant Sunni separatist group. It drew strong condemnation from Pakistan, which denounced the attack as a “blatant violation” of its airspace and said it killed two children.
Iranian state television, quoting an anonymous official after the strike, said Tehran strongly condemned the attack and “demanded an immediate explanation” from Pakistan.
The risk of escalation remained Thursday as Iran’s military will begin a planned annual air defense drill from its port of Chabahar near Pakistan all across the south of the country to Iraq. The drill, Velayat 1402, will include live fire from aircraft, drones and air defense systems.
Iran and Pakistan share a 900-kilometer (560-mile), largely lawless border in which smugglers and militants freely pass between the two nations. The route is also key to global opium shipments coming out of Afghanistan.
For both Iran and Pakistan, the cross-border attacks renew questions about the preparedness of their own militaries, particularly their radar and air defense systems.
For Pakistan, such systems are crucial as tensions always remain at a low boil with India, their nuclear-armed rival. Their equipment has long been deployed along the frontier, rather than its border with Iran. For Iran, it relies on those systems against potential strikes by its main enemy, the U.S.
China, a crucial partner in both countries, had urged restraint. Beijing is a key regional player and has a major Belt and Road development in Gwadar port in Pakistan's Baluchistan province.
China's population dropped for a second straight year as deaths jumped after COVID lockdowns ended
China’s population dropped by 2 million people in 2023 in the second straight annual drop as births fell and deaths jumped after the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions, the government said Wednesday.
The number of deaths rose by 690,000 to 11.1 million, more than double last year's increase. Demographers were expecting a sharp rise in deaths because of COVID-19 outbreaks that started at the end of the previous year and continued through February of last year. The total population stood at 1.4 billion, the statistics bureau said. China, long the most populated country in the world, dropped into second place behind India in 2023, according to U.N. estimates.
Read: Beyond breathing: How COVID-19 affects your heart, brain and other organs
The number of births fell for the seventh year, reflecting a fall in the birth rate that is a long-running economic and societal challenge for China. The population is aging steadily, which could slow economic growth over time and challenge the nation’s ability to provide for a larger elderly population with fewer workers.
The number of births fell by 540,000, which was less than in previous years. About 9 million babies were born in 2023, half of the total in 2016. All the figures are estimates based on surveys and do not include Hong Kong and Macao. China conducts a full census every 10 years.
China, which once sought to control population growth with its one-child policy, is now facing the opposite problem. The government has sought to encourage births since gradually easing the policy over 2014 to 2016 to allow a second child and then a third child in 2021, but with little success.
People are marrying later and sometimes choosing not to have children. Even those who do often have only one child because of the high cost of educating children in cities in a highly competitive academic environment. The population of women of child-bearing age has also fallen.
President Xi Jinping told the new leadership of the All-China Women’s Federation last October that it is necessary to strengthen guidance for young people’s views on marriage, parenthood and the family, and to promote policies that support parenthood and actively cope with the aging of the population, according to a report on a government website.
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“We must tell good stories about family customs, guide women to play a unique role in promoting the traditional virtues of the Chinese nation and establishing good family customs, and create a new culture of family civilization,” he was quoted as saying.
The working-age population, defined as those between 16 and 59 years old, fell to 61% of the total population, continuing a gradual decline. The proportion of those aged 60 and older ticked up to 21%. The official retirement age in China is 60 years old for men and 50 or 55 for women.
It is not clear how many people died from COVID-19 because of the sudden end to China's “zero-COVID” restrictions in December 2022. The government has reported about 80,000 COVID-related deaths from December to February but experts believe it is much higher. Studies have estimated it could have reached 1.4 million or 1.9 million deaths.
The drop in population is expected to be less this year, because of the waning effects of the pandemic and the fact that it is the year of the dragon, considered an auspicious year to have children, an expert said at a forum earlier this week, according to the China Daily, an English-language state-owned newspaper.
But Yuan Xin, a professor at Nankai University and vice-president of the China Population Association, added that "the downward trend in China’s total population is bound to be long-term and become an inherent characteristic.”
What a new president in Taiwan means for the island, China, the US and the world
Taiwan's incoming president is promising more of the same. The question is what that will bring, not only for Taiwan but also for its relations with China, the United States and others with an interest in the island of 23 million people that supplies many of the advanced semiconductors that keep the world running.
Lai Ching-te, the winner of Saturday's presidential race, has pledged to continue the policies of his predecessor Tsai Ing-wen, who built up the military and strengthened ties with the United States and other sympathetic countries. He has also pledged to do a better job of addressing domestic issues such as affordable housing and economic inequality.
The new administration will have to manage relations with China, the island's would-be ruler across the Taiwan Strait; with the United States; and with a divided legislature, as it tackles economic and other challenges at home.
CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS
The candidate that China demonized during the campaign — a Chinese spokesperson called Lai a “destroyer of peace” — won. So what does China do now?
Analysts expect some kind of show of displeasure but say the strongest signal may not come until May, when Lai takes office. It could be military exercises around the island, restrictions on imports from Taiwan, or both.
China has done both in the past, notably holding major drills following the 2022 visit to the island of then U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. It sends fighter jets and warships into the skies and waters around Taiwan on almost a daily basis, a constant reminder of the threat of invasion if the government refuses to become part of China.
China’s stated preference is what it calls “peaceful reunification.” That outcome appears increasingly unlikely as Taiwanese reject the idea of becoming part of China, particularly after the curbs on democracy and freedoms that China imposed following massive protests in Hong Kong.
A former U.S. government official said that China's urge to punish Taiwan will be blunted by two considerations.
"One is that Beijing wants to restrain President-elect Lai, not provoke him,” Danny Russel, who was assistant secretary of state for East Asia and the Pacific in the Obama administration, said in a commentary.
“The other factor is Beijing’s reluctance to provoke Washington just as the U.S. heads into the turbulent campaign season,” said Russel, now vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute. “Xi Jinping has invested considerable effort and credibility in tamping down tensions with the West, both to lower China’s profile in an American election year and to buy space to deal with myriad problems at home.”
US RELATIONS AND DIPLOMACY
U.S. President Joe Biden has sent an unofficial delegation comprised of former senior officials to Taiwan for face-to-face talks with the incoming administration, signaling continued support.
Analysts expect Lai's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), with eight consecutive years of working relations with Washington, to build upon the existing friendship to deepen relations, including on trade, investment and the military.
“The personnel on both sides know each other, these are familiar faces” says Wen-Ti Sung, a fellow with the Washington, D.C.-based Atlantic Council. “A continuation of the DPP into a third term will mean that the warming-up of U.S.-Taiwan ties that we saw in the last eight years will likely continue apace under the next Lai Ching-te administration.”
While the U.S. does not have official diplomatic ties with Taiwan, it is the island’s chief source of military hardware and cooperation. U.S. law requires Washington to treat all threats to the island as matters of “grave concern.”
Lai is likely to continue to seek partners and unofficial diplomatic ties around the world despite Beijing’s efforts to isolate Taiwan.
During Tsai’s eight-year tenure, Taiwan lost 10 formal diplomatic allies to China’s sway in what some call “checkbook diplomacy.” In the latest sign of China's pressure and influence in the Pacific Island region, Nauru on Monday said it is switching diplomatic ties from Taiwan to China. This follows Solomon Islands and Kiribati, which both switched sides in 2019.
China and Taiwan have been locked in a battle for diplomatic recognition since they split amid civil war in 1949, with Beijing spending billions — and increasing firepower — to win recognition for its “one-China” policy.
In the election campaign, Lai called for reducing reliance on China and diversifying trade with other nations. Analysts say Taiwan will likely focus on building closer ties with the U.S., Europe, Japan and Australia, among others.
DOMESTIC POLITICS
The Democratic Progressive Party party lost its majority in Taiwan’s parliament, known as the legislative Yuan, in Saturday's election by one seat, to the opposition Kuomintang, or Nationalist Party. The DPP won 51 seats, down from the overwhelming support the party had in the 2020 elections with more than 60 seats, a comfortable majority in the 113-seated parliament.
Neither holds a majority, giving the Taiwan People’s Party — a relatively new force that won eight of the 113 seats — a possible swing vote on legislation.
“That’s going to lead to a lot more, higher transactional costs in terms of deal-making to get a lot of legislative bills through with the opposition parties,” said Sung at the Atlantic Council. “That may create some potential challenges in terms of efficiency of governance going forward.”
The incoming government is faced with a host of domestic issues, including a slowed economy since the pandemic, and longer term challenges such as inequality, housing affordability and unemployment. Among the urgent issues Lai mentioned during his victory speech include the financial sustainability of Taiwan’s labor and health insurance and energy transition.
The two major parties differ on their approach to spurring economic growth, with the Nationalists supporting closer economic ties with China. Lai pledged to build consensus during his post-election news conference, acknowledging the loss of his party's hold on parliament.
“The elections have told us that the people expect an effective government as well as strong checks and balances,” he said.
Almost 100,000 Afghan children are in dire need of support, 3 months after earthquakes, UNICEF says
Almost 100,000 children in Afghanistan are in dire need of support, three months after earthquakes devastated the country's west, the U.N. children’s agency said Monday.
A 6.3-magnitude earthquake shook Herat province on Oct. 7 and a second strong quake struck the same province days later, on Oct. 11, killing more than 1,000 people. The majority of those dead in the quakes in Zinda Jan and Injil districts were women and children, and 21,000 homes were destroyed, UNICEF said in a statement.
“The atmosphere in these villages is thick with suffering even 100 days after the earthquakes in western Afghanistan when families lost absolutely everything," said Fran Equiza, UNICEF representative in Afghanistan.
"Children are still trying to cope with the loss and trauma. Schools and health centers, which children depend upon, are damaged beyond repair, or destroyed completely,” he added.
“As if this was not enough, winter has taken hold and temperatures hover below freezing," Equiza said. "Children and families without homes live in life-threatening conditions at night, with no way to heat their temporary shelters.”
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UNICEF said it urgently needs $1.4 billion in 2024 to meet the humanitarian and basic needs of 19.4 million Afghans, half of the population.
The Taliban’s failure to invest in public services has contributed to the deterioration of basic services, hindering the ability of vulnerable communities to recover from shocks and build resilience, the agency added..
“We are grateful to our donor partners who mobilized resources quickly, enabling UNICEF to respond within days to the urgent needs of children and their families in Herat,” Equiza said.
But more help is needed “to ensure that children not only survive the winter but have a chance to thrive in the months and years to come,” he added.
Daniel Timme, head of communications for UNICEF in Afghanistan, said schools, homes, health facilities and water systems were destroyed.
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“We have money coming in but it’s not enough. These communities need to be independent again. It’s not enough to put out the fire. We need to make it (Afghanistan) more resilient," Timme said.
Separately and for all of Afghanistan, UNICEF said Monday that 23.3 million people, including 12.6 million children, are in need of humanitarian assistance" in 2024, "mainly due to the residual impacts of a protracted conflict, extreme climate shocks and the country’s severe economic decline.”