United News of Bangladesh

For months, governments, companies, and financial markets viewed the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz as a short-term crisis that would eventually be resolved through diplomacy or a reduction in military tensions. Moody’s Ratings is now warning the world may need to think differently. In a new report, the ratings agency said the disruption to one of the world’s most important energy shipping routes is increasingly looking less like a short-term shock and more like a structural risk that could reshape global trade, energy markets and economic planning well beyond 2026. “Global shipping routes are being structurally rewired,” Moody’s said. The agency said countries are increasingly turning to non-Gulf suppliers, alternative pipeline routes and regional trade systems to reduce reliance on the Strait. The warning marks a shift in tone from earlier assessments that viewed the crisis mainly as a temporary supply disruption, reports Gulf News. “We now have a single, central scenario which assumes a prolonged and significant disruption to the Strait of Hormuz through autumn,” Moody’s said. Strait still vital to the world The Strait of Hormuz handles around one-fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas flows, making it one of the world’s most critical trade chokepoints. But shipping through the route has fallen by more than 90 per cent from pre-conflict levels as insurers raise premiums, shipping companies avoid the area and concerns over sea mines continue to disrupt navigation. The conflict itself may dominate headlines, but Moody’s said the larger issue is what happens if the disruption simply drags on for months. That could mean permanently higher shipping costs, more expensive energy, slower trade flows and new supply chain strategies as companies and governments adjust to prolonged instability in the Gulf. Higher oil prices now a norm? Moody’s now expects Brent crude prices to remain between $90 and $110 a barrel for much of this year, significantly above earlier expectations. For consumers, that could mean prolonged pressure on fuel prices, airfares, transport costs and inflation. “Persistently higher energy prices will lead to increases in inflation and production costs, limiting household purchasing power,” Moody’s said. The agency warned that even if a ceasefire or political agreement is reached, a return to normal conditions would still take time because shipping backlogs, tanker repositioning and insurance systems would need months to stabilise. The report also suggested that some changes triggered by the crisis may not reverse at all. “Some structural shifts in supply chain design, risk premiums and defense spending will probably be permanent,” Moody’s said. Airlines, manufacturing risks Industries that rely heavily on fuel and transport are among the sectors most exposed if elevated oil prices continue. Moody’s identified airlines, chemicals and building materials companies as facing the “most acute pressure” because of high operating costs and limited ability to pass rising expenses onto customers. Consumer sectors including retail, hospitality and manufacturing could also come under strain if households reduce spending in response to higher living costs. “Airlines, building products and chemicals face the most acute pressure,” Moody’s said. At the same time, some sectors could benefit from the changing environment. Energy producers outside the Gulf region and aerospace and defence companies are expected to gain from higher oil prices and increased geopolitical tensions. Asia faces the biggest challenge The report said Asian economies remain among the most vulnerable because of their dependence on Middle Eastern energy imports. India was identified as one of the most exposed major economies because around 46 per cent of its crude oil imports come from the Middle East. Japan and South Korea were also described as highly vulnerable despite holding large emergency reserves, while China could face pressure on industrial profitability even with state-controlled pricing and large stockpiles. “At sustained Brent prices of $90–$110/bbl, we estimate real GDP growth reductions of 0.2–0.8 percentage point for several major economies,” Moody’s said. Crisis world may have to adapt to Perhaps the biggest message from the Moody’s report is that the global economy may no longer be waiting for the Strait of Hormuz crisis to end quickly. Instead, governments, businesses and investors are increasingly preparing for the possibility that disruption, higher costs and geopolitical risk in one of the world’s most important trade routes could become part of the global economic landscape for the foreseeable future.  

Mexican authorities on Sunday said at least 10 people had been killed in an attack by gunmen in the town of Tehuitzingo in the east-central state of Puebla. The victims were six men, three women and a child, and all were shot in the early hours of Sunday, Puebla's public security agency said in a statement. Federal officials are investigating the case. Local authorities did not say whether there were any suspects in the killings. In February, six people were killed in Huehuetlán El Grande, another city of Puebla state. Days later, three people died in Puebla's capital after an attack on their vehicle. Puebla Gov. Alejandro Armenta has yet to comment on the incident. Central Mexico has recently recorded a surge in cartel violence, which has forced between 800 and 1,000 families to flee their homes.

Taiwan’s president on Sunday stressed that arms purchases from the United States are “the most important deterrent” of regional conflict and instability, after President Donald Trump called into question continued U.S. support of Taiwan following his visit to China. U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and security cooperation between the two sides are not only governed by law but also a catalyst for regional peace and stability, President Lai Ching-te said in a statement. “We thank President Trump for his continued support for peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait since his first term, including the continuous increase in the scale and amount of arms sales to Taiwan,” he said. His statement came days after Trump raised doubts over his willingness to continue to sell arms to Taiwan, the island democracy that China claims as its own breakaway province, to be retaken by force if necessary. The U.S., like all countries that have formal ties with China, doesn’t recognize Taiwan as a country but has been the island’s strongest backer and arms supplier. Washington is bound by its own laws to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself and sees all threats to the island as a matter of grave concern. Trump rattles Taiwan with ‘bargaining chip’ comment Trump already approved in December a record-breaking $11 billion arms package to Taiwan including missiles, drones, artillery systems and military software. In an interview aired Friday on Fox News, just as Trump wrapped up a high-stakes visit to China, he said he has yet to greenlight a new $14 billion arms package to Taiwan and that it “depends on China.” “It’s a very good negotiating chip for us frankly,” he said. His comments raised concerns on the island, which the Taiwanese government has sought to disperse, noting that the U.S. official policy on Taiwan has not changed.  

There have been several instances of attacks around the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf countries in recent weeks. Talks between Iran and the U.S. are at a standstill as the ceasefire threatens to collapse and tip the Middle East back into open warfare, prolonging the worldwide energy crisis sparked by the conflict. Two people familiar with the situation, including an Israeli military officer, said Israel is coordinating with the U.S. about a possible resumption of attacks. The people spoke on condition of anonymity because they were discussing confidential military preparations. Speaking to his Cabinet on Sunday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said “our eyes are also open” when it comes to Iran. He said he planned a chat with Trump later in the day to discuss the president’s trip to China and “perhaps” other things. “We are prepared for any scenario,” he said. On Iranian state TV, presenters on at least two channels appeared armed during live programs. In one program, Hossein Hosseini received basic firearms training from a masked member of the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard. After being shown how to prepare the weapon, Hosseini mimed firing a shot at the flag of the UAE. On another channel, female presenter Mobina Nasiri said a weapon had been sent to her from a gathering in Tehran’s Vanak Square so she could appear armed on camera. She said: “From this platform, I declare that I am ready to sacrifice my life for this country.”

At least four people, including three in areas near Moscow, were killed in one of the largest Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia since the war began, Russian authorities said on Sunday. According to Moscow regional Governor Andrei Vorobyev, a woman was killed after a drone struck her house in Khimki, located northwest of Moscow. Two other men died in the village of Pogorelki, north of the capital, after drone debris hit a construction site. Vorobyev said the overnight assault caused damage to several residential high-rise buildings and other infrastructure facilities in the Moscow region. In Moscow city, at least 12 people were injured during the nighttime strikes, most of them near the entrance to the city’s oil refinery, Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said. Sobyanin added that the refinery’s operational technology had not been affected by the attack. Russian authorities also reported one fatality in the border region of Belgorod. The Russian Defence Ministry said air defence systems intercepted and destroyed 556 Ukrainian drones across different parts of the country overnight. State news agency Tass, citing Sobyanin, reported that 81 drones targeting Moscow were shot down, marking the biggest drone attack on the Russian capital in more than a year. Meanwhile, Sheremetyevo International Airport said drone debris had fallen on airport grounds, though no damage was reported.   

At least eight people were killed and 15 others injured when a bus overturned on an intercity road in Iran’s southern Bushehr province on Sunday, according to the Iranian Red Crescent Society. The Red Crescent said six rescue teams were rushed to the scene soon after the accident. The injured were taken to nearby hospitals and medical centres for treatment. Iran’s semi-offical Fars News Agency reported that the bus was carrying employees of the South Pars Gas Company. Authorities are investigating the cause of the accident.

Tunisia and Turkey have officially announced the beginning of Dhu Al Hijjah, confirming Monday, May 18, as the first day of the Islamic month and Wednesday, May 27, as Eid Al Adha. "The crescent moon marking the beginning of Dhu Al Hijjah has been confirmed in both Tunisia and Turkey, with the two countries announcing Monday, May 18, as the first day of the Islamic month and Wednesday, May 27, as Eid Al Adha." Tunisia first to declare Dhu Al Hijjah Tunisia was the first country to officially confirm the beginning of Dhu Al Hijjah after identifying Saturday, May 16, as the 29th day of Dhu Al Qadah. "Tunisia became the first country to officially confirm the start of Dhu Al Hijjah after declaring Saturday, May 16, as the 29th day of Dhu Al Qadah." Turkey follows astronomical calendar Turkey also announced Monday, May 18, as the first day of Dhu Al Hijjah. The country relies on a pre-calculated Islamic calendar that uses astronomical calculations instead of traditional physical moon sighting. "Turkey also confirmed Monday, May 18, as the start of Dhu Al Hijjah, following a pre-calculated Islamic calendar based on astronomical calculations rather than physical moon sighting." Saudi Arabia, UAE and Oman await moon sighting Meanwhile, several other Islamic countries, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Oman, are expected to observe the Dhu Al Hijjah crescent on Sunday, May 17. Officials are anticipated to announce the confirmed Eid Al Adha dates after the moon sighting process is completed. "In most other Islamic countries, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Oman, Sunday, May 17, has been set for the observation of the Dhu Al Hijjah crescent, with authorities expected to sight the moon on Sunday evening and announce official Eid Al Adha dates thereafter."

Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz has criticised several European countries for boycotting the Eurovision Song Contest and congratulated Israeli singer Noam Bettan for finishing second in the competition. In a post on X written in both Hebrew and Spanish, Katz said Bettan’s strong performance was a response to what he described as an “incitement and defamation campaign” led by Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and others who opposed Israel’s participation. Spain, one of Eurovision’s biggest financial contributors, joined Ireland, the Netherlands, Slovenia and Iceland in a broadcast boycott of the event. The public broadcasters of those countries refused to air the contest or send contestants, protesting the European Broadcasting Union’s decision to allow Israel to compete despite its ongoing military offensive in Gaza. The boycott was accompanied by protests from audience members during both the semifinal and final in Vienna. Bettan performed the song “Michelle” and finished in second place, behind the winning entry from Bulgaria. Source: Al Jazeera

The World Health Organization on Sunday declared that the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda amounts to a “public health emergency of international concern.” In a post on social media platform X, the WHO said the outbreak - caused by the Bundibugyo virus - does not qualify as a pandemic-level emergency. Global health efforts delivering results but progress fragile, insufficient: WHO

At least eight people were killed and more than 20 others injured after a cargo train hit a public bus at a railway crossing in Thailand's capital Bangkok on Saturday. Local media reported that the accident took place in the late afternoon near an airport rail link station in the central part of the city. Bangkok's emergency response centre, Erawan Medical Center, confirmed the deaths and said over 20 people were taken to hospitals with injuries. Videos shared on social media showed several vehicles waiting at the railway crossing when the cargo train slammed into an orange bus at the front of the line. The force of the crash dragged the bus and several nearby vehicles along the tracks before the bus caught fire. Several motorcycles and riders were also thrown onto the road by the impact. Later footage showed rescue workers entering the burned-out bus after firefighters brought the blaze under control.