Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS) Major General (Retd) ANM Muniruzzaman has said understanding and navigating the current global trends is essential for individuals, businesses and nations to adapt and thrive in this dynamic environment.
Dispensing his prediction that as the global landscape continues to evolve, Muniruzzaman said, 2024 may present a complex tapestry of interconnected trends.
“These trends encompass a wide range of fields, from technology and geopolitics to societal shifts and environmental concerns,” he said while moderating a roundtable titled “Navigating the Future: Global Trends 2024” held at a hotel in Dhaka.
Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS) organized the roundtable that focused on the major trends of 2024 in the area of geopolitics, security, economy, technology etc.
Chair and Assistant Professor, Department of Global Studies and Governance, Independent University, Bangladesh Dr. Marufa Akter; Senior Research Fellow, BIPSS Shafqat Munir and Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, East West University Parvez Karim Abbasi were elevated the discourse by sharing their insights on the topic under discussion.
Marufa shared insightful perspectives on the challenges of predicting 2024 trends, emphasizing on the possibility of further escalation of some unresolved conflicts of 2023 in countries like Niger, Sudan, Israel, and Gaza.
Referring to the World Economic Forum's Global Risk Assessment Report, she described how people anticipate heightened global turbulence in 2024.
Marufa predicted the emergence of "Third Nuclear Era" in 2024 with major powers expanding nuclear weapon capabilities.
Probable geopolitical trends of this year that she touched upon included the advent of a multipolar world order, the rise of Asian nations, potential strategic shifts for India, increased challenges for Europe amid growing US-China rivalry and the climate crisis.
Shafqat Munir highlighted current global conflicts like Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Gaza, along with emerging crises such as the Red Sea Crisis, impacting both global security and economy.
Mentioning Myanmar's situation, he noted global concerns despite limited awareness in Dhaka.
Advocating for strategic neutrality, Munir stressed Bangladesh addressing both traditional and non-traditional security concerns.
Expressing concern over the relation between increasing division within the world politics and rise of extremism, he called for collective efforts to combat violent extremism amid growing global divisions.
He also added that the increasing use of artificial intelligence can sometimes be misleading for geopolitics as it has the risk of being negatively used by the wrong people.
Parvez Karim Abbasi identified the three core components of the discussion- state of economy, elections around the world and what it means for geopolitics and finally the supply chain disruption.
“2024's economy will look very unbecoming and fragile”, he said. He stressed on the fact that global inflation can lead to some key problems including rising unemployment and political instability worldwide.
In terms of election, he stated that about 4.2 billion people of the world are on the verge of experiencing different electoral patterns.
He focused particularly on the USA’s election as 33.3% people think that Donald Trump can regain power. In addition to this, he thinks that in 2024 the Red Sea crisis will be a major cause behind the supply chain disruption as 10-12% of the global commerce pass through that route.
The interactive session covered the exchange of views on some relevant issues such as supply chain disruption, the future of SAARC and regional cooperation, Myanmar issue, the greatest threats of 2024, the opportunities and challenges that Bangladesh is likely to face in 2024, how dysfunctional politics can be an obstacle in the way of ensuring global peace etc.
A question from the floor was raised about the greatest threat that the panelists could identify for 2024.
According to the panelists, the greatest threats for 2024 are climate change, great power rivalry and conflict, and alienation between Russia and US.
Another question was raised to the panel from the floor asking them to identify the key strengths and weaknesses of Bangladesh.
The panelists gave the answers that the greatest strength of Bangladesh is its geostrategic position, its youth population and also a large population that can contribute to the economy.
On the other hand, the weaknesses of the country are internal political situation, corruption, and lack of patriotism among the elites.
While closing the session the moderator mentioned that the rise of 5G technology is transforming connectivity and enabling the Internet of Things (IoT) to reach new heights.
Quantum computing, once a theoretical concept, is making strides towards practical applications, potentially revolutionizing data processing and encryption.
He concluded that the geopolitical landscape in 2024 is marked by shifting alliances, emerging powers, and persistent challenges.
Traditional power structures are being challenged as new players assert themselves on the global stage.
Ambassadors and diplomats based in Dhaka, former Ambassadors, representatives from international organizations, academicians, journalists and students attended the roundtable.