As the European Union moves to end its dependence on Russian energy and U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration urges NATO members to cut ties with Moscow’s oil, Hungary remains a staunch outlier.
Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s government insists Russian energy is vital for Hungary’s economy, arguing that shifting to alternative suppliers would trigger an immediate economic collapse.
Orbán — widely viewed as the Kremlin’s closest ally in the EU — has consistently opposed sanctions on Moscow since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. He has also denounced EU efforts to target Russia’s energy revenue, saying such steps harm Europe more than they help Ukraine.
While most European countries have drastically reduced their reliance on Russian fuel, Hungary has gone the other way — maintaining, and in some cases expanding, its imports. Critics say Orbán’s loyalty to Russian energy stems more from political alignment than genuine economic necessity.
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Hungary’s leaders argue that, as a landlocked nation surrounded by other countries, it has no practical alternative to pipelines built during the Soviet era.
“If Hungary is cut off from Russian oil and natural gas, then immediately, within a minute, Hungarian economic performance will drop by 4%,” Orbán said on state radio in September. “This would be catastrophic — the Hungarian economy would be on its knees.”
However, energy expert László Miklós dismissed that claim, telling The Associated Press there was “no rational explanation” for Hungary’s reluctance to diversify. He said the infrastructure already exists to import non-Russian energy.
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“Disconnecting from Russian supplies should not be a problem in an integrated European market,” Miklós said. “All the conditions are there — it’s the political will that’s missing.”
EU’s energy cutoff and Hungary’s exemption
Following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the EU imposed an embargo on Russian oil and announced plans to phase out all Russian fossil fuel imports by 2027.
However, the bloc granted temporary exemptions to three landlocked nations — Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic — for pipeline-delivered oil. Miklós argued that this exemption has enabled Hungary’s government and state oil company MOL to reap major profits while continuing to funnel billions to Russia’s war budget.
“People think Hungary buys Russian energy because it’s cheaper,” he said. “That’s wrong. Hungary buys Russian energy because the government wants to help Russia arm itself — the profits for MOL and the government are just a byproduct.”
Alternatives through the Adriatic
Hungary has insisted that its limited infrastructure prevents it from ending reliance on Moscow. Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó said in September that geography determines energy choices. “We can dream about buying gas and oil from places that are not connected by pipelines, but we cannot heat our homes or run factories with dreams,” he said.
Yet neighboring countries have already made the switch. The Czech Republic, once heavily dependent on Russia’s Druzhba pipeline, declared “oil independence” earlier this year after boosting capacity through an Italian pipeline.
Hungary also has access to the Adriatic pipeline from Croatia, known as the Adria. While MOL claims the pipeline cannot meet Hungary’s full annual demand of roughly 14 million tons of crude, Croatia’s oil company Janaf disputes that, saying it can easily supply both Hungary and Slovakia.
Even if Adria cannot cover all of Hungary’s needs, Miklós said it could still significantly reduce Russian imports. “If they need 14 to 15 million tons per year, they could take 10 million through Adria and the rest via Druzhba,” he said.
The cost of alternatives
Orbán’s government has warned that cutting off Russian energy would double household electricity bills and nearly triple gas costs.
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But according to energy analyst Borbála Takácsné Tóth, Hungarian consumers already pay prices linked to European benchmarks, meaning Russian gas is not substantially cheaper. She said a shift away from Russian supplies would likely raise prices only slightly — by 1.5 to 2 euros per megawatt hour, or less than 5%.
Despite the government’s rhetoric, Hungary’s national energy firm MOL has already invested heavily to diversify its supply routes. The company said its $500 million modernization project will allow it to process a wider range of crude by the end of 2026.
Miklós said that whatever Orbán’s political stance, the EU’s ongoing regulations will ultimately force Hungary to adapt.
“Things will not go back to the way they were,” he said. “Europe has learned that Russia cannot be trusted. Breaking away from Russian energy is a political decision — and every other country in Europe is already paying that price.”
Source: AP