The U.S. fertility rate has dropped to a historic low in 2024, falling below 1.6 children per woman, according to new federal data released Thursday by the CDC.
Historically, the U.S. stood out among developed nations for maintaining a fertility rate high enough to replace its population—around 2.1 children per woman. But for nearly two decades, that number has been steadily declining as more women delay motherhood or opt not to have children at all.
The latest figures bring the U.S. in line with many western European nations, according to World Bank comparisons.
Concerned by the trend, the Trump administration has proposed measures to reverse the decline, including an executive order aimed at expanding access to in vitro fertilization and suggestions for financial incentives like “baby bonuses” to encourage childbearing.
However, Leslie Root, a fertility and population policy expert at the University of Colorado Boulder, said there’s no immediate cause for concern. “This is part of a continuing pattern of delayed fertility. The U.S. population is still growing, with more births than deaths,” she explained.
The CDC’s new report, based on finalized birth data from 2024, shows the total fertility rate has fallen slightly from 1.621 in 2023 to 1.599 this year. For context, the rate was about 3.5 in the early 1960s, dropped sharply after the Baby Boom, and briefly reached replacement level again in 2007 before beginning another steady decline.
Why Birth Rates Are Falling
Karen Guzzo, director of the Carolina Population Center at the University of North Carolina, said declining birth rates are being driven by people marrying later and feeling financially insecure about raising children.
“People are worried—about costs, health care, stability—and that’s not the environment where people choose to have kids,” she said.
Guzzo also noted that the Trump administration’s fertility-boosting efforts fail to address deeper structural issues like paid parental leave and affordable childcare. “These actions are mostly symbolic and won’t meaningfully change behavior for most Americans,” she added.
Small Increase in Total Births
Despite the drop in fertility rate, the CDC’s updated report found a 1% increase in the total number of births in 2023—about 33,000 more babies—bringing the annual total to just over 3.6 million.
Earlier, provisional data had suggested rising birth rates for women in their late 20s and 30s, but the finalized report shows birth rates actually fell for women in their 20s and early 30s, with no change for those in their late 30s.
CDC officials attribute this shift to updated Census population estimates, which affected how birth rates were calculated. According to Root, the growth in the number of women of childbearing age—largely due to immigration—helped offset slight increases in births, making the overall rate appear lower.