India and Pakistan have suspended visa access for each other’s citizens, intensifying a diplomatic standoff following a deadly shooting in disputed Kashmir that left 26 people dead, most of them tourists. India has accused Pakistan of being linked to the attack.
India announced Thursday it will cancel all visas issued to Pakistani nationals starting Sunday, and instructed Pakistani visitors in India to depart before their visas expire under the revised regulations. Additional measures were introduced, including reducing diplomatic personnel and shutting down the only active land border crossing between the two countries.
In response, Pakistan closed its airspace to Indian-owned or operated airlines and halted all trade with India, including transit through third countries.
The assault on Tuesday, targeting primarily tourists visiting a popular meadow, was the most severe attack on civilians in Kashmir in years. The region has experienced a prolonged insurgency against Indian rule for over three decades.
India was stunned by the attack, and public outcry swiftly followed, prompting calls for retaliation. Although the Indian government has not publicly presented evidence tying the attackers to Pakistan, it stated the incident had “cross-border” links. Pakistan has denied involvement. A previously unknown group calling itself the Kashmir Resistance claimed responsibility for the violence.
Pakistan’s National Security Committee denounced what it called India’s “belligerent measures,” maintaining that while Pakistan remains committed to peace, it will not allow any violations of its sovereignty or rights.
Kashmir remains a contentious region, with both nations controlling parts but claiming it in full. India considers all armed opposition in Kashmir to be supported by Pakistan. Pakistan refutes this, asserting that many Kashmiri militants are part of a local struggle for self-determination.
Mounting Pressure at Home
The attack has increased political pressure on Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government to deliver a strong response.
Speaking at a rally on Thursday, Modi declared, “India will identify, track and punish every terrorist, their handlers and their backers.” He added, “We will pursue them to the ends of the earth.”
India proceeded with a series of diplomatic retaliations. Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said Wednesday that Pakistani diplomats had been expelled from New Delhi, and Indian diplomats were being recalled from Islamabad. By May 1, both countries will downsize their diplomatic missions from 55 to 30 personnel. The land border crossing will also be closed.
India’s foreign ministry advised its citizens against traveling to Pakistan and asked those currently in the country to return home.
Furthermore, India suspended the Indus Water Treaty — a historic agreement brokered by the World Bank in 1960 that has remained intact despite two wars and past clashes. The treaty regulates water-sharing of a vital river system crucial to both nations, especially for Pakistan’s agriculture sector.
Pakistan reacted with fury, insisting it played no role in the attack. Protests erupted in Islamabad and other cities over India’s suspension of the water agreement, with demonstrators urging retaliation.
Pakistan warned that any Indian efforts to block or divert water flows would be deemed an “act of war” and met with a forceful response.
“India has taken irresponsible steps and leveled allegations,” Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar told local broadcaster Dunya News.
Rising Fears of Escalation
Dar also warned that “any kinetic step by India will see a tit-to-tat kinetic response,” evoking memories of the near-war scenario in February 2019 following a deadly suicide bombing in Kashmir.
In August 2019, Modi’s government revoked Kashmir’s limited autonomy, placing the region under direct federal rule — a move that worsened tensions but did not derail a renewed ceasefire deal reached with Pakistan in 2021, which has largely held despite sporadic attacks.
The latest violence may again ignite fears of conflict between the nuclear-armed neighbors, who have long accused each other of supporting destabilizing elements across their borders.
Some analysts believe India may escalate beyond diplomatic pressure, as domestic media and ruling party figures call for military action.
Defense Minister Rajnath Singh vowed Wednesday to hunt down both the attackers and the masterminds behind the assault, hinting at possible military retaliation.
Ashok Malik, a former foreign ministry policy advisor, said the government’s tone signals deep anger. He noted that suspending the Indus Water Treaty could economically impact Pakistan, and added that Indian defense planners believe limited military actions are possible despite the nuclear backdrop.
"(India's) military strategists believe there is a space for kinetic conventional action under the nuclear umbrella. The space isn’t infinite, but it isn’t insignificant either,” Malik said.
Praveen Donthi of the International Crisis Group warned that presenting the Kashmir conflict solely as a security issue orchestrated by Pakistan may politically benefit Modi, but risks leaving the government with limited options during crises.
“The immense public pressure on the Modi government to retaliate strongly and militarily is self-created. Soon, there will be no options left unless New Delhi starts looking to address the roots of political unrest in Kashmir,” Donthi said.
Shock in Kashmir
The violence stunned many Kashmiris, as attacks on tourists have been rare. Typically, militants have focused on Indian security forces.
In an uncommon public response, Kashmiris — often subjected to heavy crackdowns by Indian forces — joined candlelight vigils and protests condemning the killings. Schools, shops, and businesses remained closed on Wednesday amid fears the violence could damage the region’s tourism-dependent economy.
Funerals for several victims were held in various Indian cities.