Israel has resumed its military campaign in Gaza with broader objectives and significantly fewer restrictions, raising concerns that this phase could be even more deadly and destructive than the previous one.

The war restarted with an unexpected bombardment early Tuesday, killing hundreds of Palestinians, ending the ceasefire, and threatening further devastation unless Hamas releases the remaining hostages and departs from the region.

One-month-old rescued from Gaza rubble after airstrike kills parents

Former U.S. President Donald Trump has fully endorsed the renewed offensive and previously suggested that Gaza’s 2 million residents be relocated to other countries. Meanwhile, Iran-backed militant groups allied with Hamas are in disarray.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government is stronger than ever, and the number of hostages held inside Gaza is at its lowest since Hamas launched the war on October 7, 2023. This gives the Israeli military greater operational freedom.

These factors indicate that the next stage of the war could be even more intense than the last, during which tens of thousands of Palestinians were killed, the majority of the population was displaced, and much of Gaza was left in ruins.

"If all the Israeli hostages are not released and Hamas is not expelled from Gaza, Israel will act with an intensity you have never seen," Defence Minister Israel Katz said on Wednesday.

"Return the hostages and expel Hamas, and other options will become available, including relocation to other countries for those who wish. The alternative is total destruction and devastation."

Even Less U.S. Pressure to Protect Civilians
The Biden administration provided critical military and diplomatic backing to Israel during the first 15 months of the war but also sought to reduce civilian casualties. Early in the conflict, Biden convinced Israel to ease its total blockade on Gaza and consistently urged it to allow more humanitarian aid, with mixed success. He opposed Israel’s offensive in southern Gaza in May and temporarily halted a weapons shipment in protest, though Israel proceeded regardless. Biden also played a key role in securing the ceasefire through negotiations with Egypt and Qatar, with Trump’s team later finalising the deal.

Israeli strikes across Gaza kill at least 40, Say Hospitals

The Trump administration, however, appears to have imposed no restrictions. It has not criticised Israel for sealing off Gaza again, unilaterally withdrawing from the ceasefire agreement, or launching strikes that have killed hundreds of civilians.

Israel maintains that it only targets militants and insists that dismantling Hamas is essential to preventing another attack like the one on October 7, when Palestinian militants killed approximately 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and took 251 hostages.

The Biden administration previously questioned this approach, arguing that Hamas was no longer capable of carrying out such an attack.

Before the January ceasefire, the offensive had resulted in over 48,000 Palestinian deaths, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, which does not differentiate between civilians and militants in its reports but states that more than half of the casualties were women and children.

Trump Has Proposed Depopulating Gaza
Trump appeared to lose interest in the ceasefire weeks ago, saying it should be abandoned if Hamas did not release all hostages immediately.

A brief White House effort to negotiate directly with Hamas was abandoned after Israel objected. Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, later blamed Hamas for the ceasefire’s collapse, stating that it had rejected proposals for the immediate release of hostages.

Hamas has insisted that it will only release the remaining hostages—its primary bargaining tool—in exchange for more Palestinian prisoners, a lasting ceasefire, and an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, as outlined in the ceasefire agreement.

Trump, meanwhile, has proposed relocating Gaza’s entire population to other countries so the U.S. could take control of the territory and rebuild it for other inhabitants.

Palestinians have rejected this idea, insisting they will not leave their homeland, while Arab nations have also strongly opposed it. Human rights experts argue that such a move would likely violate international law.

Israel has welcomed the proposal and stated that it is developing plans to implement it.

Netanyahu’s Government Is More Secure Than Ever
Netanyahu faced intense pressure from the families of hostages and their supporters to maintain the ceasefire in hopes of securing their release. For months, thousands of protesters gathered in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, blocking highways and clashing with police.

By resuming the war, Netanyahu has sidelined these critics and reinforced his hard-line coalition.

Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who resigned in protest against the ceasefire, rejoined the government shortly after Tuesday’s strikes. Along with Bezalel Smotrich, another far-right ally of Netanyahu, he supports continuing the war, facilitating "voluntary migration" of Gaza’s population, and re-establishing Jewish settlements there, which were removed two decades ago.

Netanyahu has also dismissed or forced out several high-ranking officials who appeared more open to a hostage deal.

Hamas and Its Allies Are in Disarray
Although Hamas still governs Gaza, most of its senior leaders have been killed, and its military capabilities have been significantly weakened. Israel claims to have eliminated around 20,000 militants, though it has not provided evidence.

In its first attack after the ceasefire ended, Hamas launched three rockets on Thursday, triggering air raid sirens in Tel Aviv but causing no casualties.

Lebanon’s Hezbollah, which engaged in cross-border clashes with Israel for much of the war, was forced to accept a truce last autumn after Israeli strikes killed many of its leaders and devastated southern Lebanon. The fall of Syrian President Bashar Assad, a key ally, has further weakened the group.

Iran, which backs both Hamas and Hezbollah and directly exchanged fire with Israel twice last year, appears unlikely to intervene. Israel claims to have severely damaged Iran’s air defences with a wave of retaliatory strikes last autumn, while Trump has warned of U.S. military action if Iran refuses to negotiate a new nuclear deal.

Meanwhile, Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels have resumed launching long-range missiles at Israel, though these have rarely caused significant damage or casualties. The U.S. has responded with a new round of strikes on the Houthis, potentially further reducing their operational capacity.

International Criticism May Be More Muted
The initial phase of the war prompted global protests, condemnation from some European leaders, and United Nations action. Israel faced genocide accusations at the International Court of Justice, while the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Netanyahu.

This time, however, the response could be different.

The Trump administration has detained foreign-born pro-Palestinian student activists and others, while also threatening to withdraw billions in federal funding from universities accused of tolerating antisemitism. This crackdown makes a repeat of last year’s U.S. campus protests less likely.

European nations, already engaged in disputes with Trump over aid to Ukraine and trade tariffs, seem unlikely to challenge him over Middle East policy.

Both the U.S. and Israel have firmly rejected the actions of international courts, accusing them of bias. In early February, Trump signed an executive order imposing sanctions on the ICC, of which neither the U.S. nor Israel is a member.