Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will elect a new party leader on Saturday to succeed Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, aiming to recover from recent electoral setbacks and rebuild public trust.

Following a series of defeats in parliamentary elections over the past year, which left the LDP in the minority in both chambers, the party hopes a new leader can quickly tackle domestic and international issues and work with opposition groups to push through its agenda.

There are five contenders for the LDP presidency — two current ministers and three former ones. Since the LDP still holds the most seats in the lower house (which elects the prime minister) and the opposition remains fragmented, the new party leader is expected to become Japan’s next prime minister.

The leadership race is an internal party election involving 295 LDP lawmakers and roughly one million party members, accounting for just 1% of Japan’s total population.

Polls suggest the leading candidates include:

Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, who would become the youngest Japanese PM in over 100 years if elected;

Former Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi, a staunch conservative who could become

Japan’s first female prime minister;
Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, a seasoned moderate.

The other two candidates — Trade Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and Economic Minister Takayuki Kobayashi — are considered less likely to win.

A clear majority is unlikely in the first round of voting, making a runoff between the top two candidates highly probable. The final decision will likely be shaped by powerful party insiders.

A formal parliamentary vote on the new prime minister is expected by mid-October. With criticism mounting over the political vacuum caused by Ishiba’s resignation, the new leader will need to move fast — especially with a potentially high-stakes summit with U.S. President Donald Trump expected later this month. Trump is anticipated to press Japan to boost its defense budget.

This meeting may coincide with the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea, which begins on October 31.

In addition to forming a new government, the LDP is also expected to seek broader political alliances. The party already governs in coalition with the centrist Komeito party and may approach other moderate opposition groups for support — a shift from its previous reluctance to cooperate across the aisle.

All five leadership candidates are presenting themselves as “moderate conservatives” and have focused their campaigns on economic issues, including tackling inflation, increasing wages, enhancing national defense, and tightening foreign labor policies. However, they’ve largely avoided controversial social topics such as LGBTQ+ rights and gender equality.

They also steered clear of addressing the LDP’s recent political funding scandal — widely seen as the main cause of their electoral losses — and failed to propose clear anti-corruption reforms. Experts argue this avoidance has fueled skepticism about the party’s commitment to real change and may hinder its efforts to restore public confidence.