Net migration to the UK is projected to decline by nearly 50% in 2024, largely due to a significant drop in arrivals from non-EU nations and an increase in departures of international students, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Thursday.

Provisional ONS data shows that net migration for the year ending December 2024 is estimated at 431,000, a sharp fall from 860,000 in 2023.

The decrease is mainly attributed to fewer arrivals on work and student visas from non-EU+ countries—which include all nations outside the EU, European Economic Area, and Switzerland—and a rise in emigration, particularly among former international students.

The total number of long-term arrivals is expected to fall to 948,000, down from 1.33 million in 2023—a drop of nearly one-third, and the first time this figure has dipped below one million since March 2022. Meanwhile, long-term emigration rose by about 11% to 517,000, the highest level since mid-2017.

Among non-EU+ nationals, work-related immigration experienced the largest decline, with the number of primary applicants for work visas decreasing by 108,000—nearly 49% lower than the previous year. There was also a steep drop in the number of student dependents (down 105,000 or 86%) and work dependents (down 81,000 or 35%). The number of main applicants for student visas fell by around 17%.

The ONS report also noted that Indian nationals were the most common non-EU+ group to leave the UK in 2024. Emigration among the top five non-EU+ nationalities was primarily driven by education-related reasons, especially among Indian and Chinese students who left the country after completing their studies.

The data comes shortly after the UK’s Labour government introduced its Immigration White Paper, which outlines stricter rules to curb legal migration. The proposals include tougher residency requirements, higher visa income thresholds, and the closure of some work visa routes.