The victory plan that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will present to the White House this week asks the Biden administration to do something it has not achieved in the two and a half years since Russia invaded Ukraine: act quickly to support Kyiv’s campaign.
While Western dawdling has amplified Ukraine's losses, some Ukrainian officials, diplomats and analysts fear Kyiv's aim to have the plan implemented before a new U.S. president takes office in January may be out of reach.
U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfield, reportedly briefed on the plan, said it “can work” but many privately question how.
The specifics of Zelenskyy’s blueprint have been kept under wraps until it can be formally presented to President Joe Biden, but contours of the plan have emerged, including the need for fast action on decisions Western allies have been mulling since the full-scale invasion began in 2022.
It includes the security guarantee of NATO membership, according to Zelenskyy’s chief of staff Andrii Yermak — a principal demand of Kyiv and Moscow’s key point of contention. Western allies, including the U.S., have been skeptical about this option.
Zelenskyy has said he will also seek permission to use long-range weapons to strike deep inside Russian territory, another red line for some of Ukraine's supporters.
“Partners often say, ‘We will be with Ukraine until its victory.’ Now we clearly show how Ukraine can win and what is needed for this. Very specific things,” Zelenskyy told reporters ahead of the trip. “Let’s do all this today, while all the officials who want victory for Ukraine are still in official positions.”
Meanwhile, outnumbered Ukrainian forces face grinding battles against one of the world’s most powerful armies in the east. As Zelenskyy pitches his plan to Biden on Thursday, Ukrainian servicemen will be grappling to hold defensive lines in the key logistics point of Vuhledar in the Donetsk region. For some of them, it is essential that Biden buys into Zelenskyy’s plan.
“I hope that allies will provide us with what we need,” said Kyanin, a soldier fighting in the Donetsk region. “Not 10 or 31 tanks, but a thousand tanks, thousands of weapons and ammunition.”
Kyiv sets the terms
The victory plan is Kyiv’s response to rising pressure from Western allies and war-weary Ukrainians to negotiate a cease-fire. A deal with Russia would almost certainly be unfavorable for Ukraine, which has lost a fifth of its territory and tens of thousands of lives in the conflict.
Unless, Kyiv calculates, its western partners act quickly. Ukraine's allies have routinely mulled over requests for weapons and capabilities, granting them often after their strategic value is diminished. Under the plan, from October to December, they must dramatically strengthen Kyiv's hand.
The plan comprises military, political, diplomatic and economic elements.
A senior U.S. State Department official said the Ukrainians were “testing” certain elements of Zelenskyy’s plan with the U.S. and others but had not yet offered details or the entire proposal. Any decision on support for parts or all of the plan will be up to Biden, the official said on the sidelines of the annual U.N. General Assembly in New York.
The official, who spoke to reporters on condition of anonymity to discuss private consultations with the Ukrainians, said the military element of the plan deals with what Ukraine thinks it needs in the short term to keep pressure on Russia and hopefully force them to the negotiating table.
The political element deals with how to assure the Ukrainian people that they will be welcome in Western institutions like the European Union and NATO if they continue to fight with Russia or succeed in getting a negotiated settlement with Russia, the official said.
Aside from the demand for NATO membership, the plan seeks to bolster Ukraine’s defenses, including air defense capabilities, enough to force Moscow to negotiate.
A request to ramp up sanctions to weaken Russia's economy and defense industry is also expected.
Zelenskyy has said without elaborating that Kyiv’s military incursion into Kursk, in Russia, is part of the victory plan. That offensive, which embarrassed President Vladimir Putin as the Kremlin scrambled to counterattack, has not yielded any strategic gains. But it has shown the Russian public and doubtful Western allies that Russian is not invincible and Kyiv still has offensive capabilities despite being battered on the eastern front.
The cost of inaction
Zelenskyy has described his proposal as “a bridge to the Peace Summit” that he has proposed for November but that Russia says it will not attend. No international players capable of swaying Moscow agreed to his earlier 10-point peace plan, which calls for the full withdrawal of Russian forces.
Ukrainian presidential advisors and lawmakers have told The Associated Press that Kyiv will only agree to a cease-fire with Russia if Putin’s ability to invade the country again is crippled. Any other arrangement would not benefit Ukraine’s future or honor the sacrifices of its people.
Ukrainian officials have rejected competing proposals from China and Brazil, believing they would merely pause the war and give Moscow time to consolidate its battered army and defense industry.
“It will lead to a freezing of the conflict, nothing more: Occupied territories are considered occupied. Sanctions against Russia remain. The intensity of war drops significantly but it continues,” said one presidential advisor, who requested anonymity to speak freely.
He predicted that Moscow would recalibrate and attack again, likely from Mykolaiv and Odesa in the south, "within two, three, four years, or maybe even earlier, depending on the state of Russia. That’s the scenario.”
Russia's conditions for ending the war are spelled out in a 17-page draft agreement penned in April 2022.
The time element
Prolonging the status quo will only play into Russia’s hands in the long-term, analysts said.
“Ukraine will lose more than 1,000 square kilometers (600 miles) by the end of the year,” if current conditions continue, said Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military analyst for Information Resistance, a Kyiv-based think tank. “We need to understand that if (allies) don’t defend Ukraine, it will make this war last for many more years, and finally, make it possible for us to lose the war,” he said.
Time will also allow Russian forces to build up its weapons industry, as it did at a frightening pace in the last year, said Kovalenko.
“We lack every kind of weapon, and Russia produces their weapons 24 hours a day,” Kovalenko said.
Russia has updated its aerial glide bombs, for which Ukraine has no effective countermeasure. They now weigh 3,000 pounds, which is six times bigger than when they were first used in the battle for Bakhmut in 2022, he said.
Soldiers in eastern Ukraine and analysts said long-range Western weapons would be the most effective countermeasure against glide bombs, which have been deployed along the frontline, including in Vuhledar. The mining town's fall would compromise supply lines feeding the southern front and strike a devastating blow to Ukrainian morale.
In his final address to the U.N. General Assembly on Tuesday, Biden urged Ukraine’s backers to stand firm.