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Cosmos Dialogue: Impact of Covid-19 on Bangladesh: Prognosis for Recovery
Prominent economist and Chairman of Policy Research Institute (PRI) Dr Zaidi Sattar talked about the macroeconomic impact of COVID-19 on Bangladesh and prognosis for recovery.
Prof Haider Khan, John Evans Distinguished Professor of Economics at the University of Denver, highlighted the geopolitical implications of COVID-19 and challenges for Bangladesh.
Muhammed Aziz Khan, founder and Chairman of Summit Power International Limited, Summit Holdings Ltd and IPCO Developments (Bangladesh) Limited, talked about the impact of COVID-19 on infrastructures in Bangladesh.
Executive Director, Campaign for Popular Education (CAMPE) and former adviser to a previous caretaker government, Rasheda K Choudhury spoke with focus on the impact of COVID-19 on women and education in Bangladesh and its recovery plans.
President of Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) Dr Rubana Huq discussed the impact of COVID-19 on the readymade garment sector in Bangladesh.
Cosmos Foundation Executive Director Nahar Khan delivered the concluding remarks.
Gradual Recovery
"The catastrophe is truly global. This is a hill we’ll have to climb," said Dr Iftekhar adding that the recovery will be there gradually.
He laid emphasis on converting the challenges to opportunities through joint efforts.
Dr Zaidi Sattar said it is pandemic globally, not epidemic and the government of Bangladesh was very quick to respond without wasting any time.
He highlighted the impact on the Bangladesh economy as its economy is well-integrated with the global economy.
The economist said there will be need for more fiscal resources and cash transfers as many people will need them. "Policymakers are trying their best."
Talking about recovery, he said it needs to be seen what is going on externally and domestically and mentioned that economic recovery cannot happen with "imbalance" incentives.
Zaidi Sattar laid emphasis on export diversification, more investment and ensuring balanced incentives for the relevant sectors.
Dr Rubana said it was almost like a nightmare and for them it was a critical journey when they saw RMG export orders worth over US$ 3.15 billion were cancelled or held up.
Responding to a question, she said they have negotiated almost 48 percent of the cancelled orders to be reinstated but the payment terms are still vague.
Opportunities Aplenty
Aziz Khan said there will be huge opportunities for Bangladesh in the post-Covid-19 scenario that the country needs to utilise.
Talking about the impact of COVID-19 on infrastructures in Bangladesh, he said the pandemic will bring about a new life and new culture.
The prominent businessman said here is shortage both in demand and supply, and this will encourage other countries to supply to Bangladesh and also take goods from the country.
“Bangladesh will be in a much stronger position to negotiate with the importers of garments which is a basic goods,” he added. “We will have the possibility to have better contracts. "
Describing different infrastructural development in the country, Aziz Khan said Bangladesh now generates 20,000 MW of electricity, Padma Bridge and three ports are coming up which will connect the country with the rest of the world.
“Many African countries do not have port facilities for which they have to suffer a lot, but Bangladesh has got that opportunity,” he said adding that metro rail, underground tunnel projects are being implemented which will create new opportunities for the country.
Aziz Khan said the government should look into the portfolio infrastructures as how they could be implemented in a faster way.
He said Bangladesh's large import is the energy and its cost will be half in post-COVID-19 era. "This means if we have to spend $4 billion, now we will need $2 billion."
“So, I see the biggest opportunity in this regard," he added.
Aziz Khan said COVID-19 is certainly bad for all but these opportunities are the "stars in the darkness".
"There could be sunshine and there could be sunshine in the cloud for which Bangladesh must pursue," he said.
Geopolitical Impacts
Prof Haider Khan said Bangladesh needs to keep friendly relationship both in rhetoric and in practice with its neighbouring countries.
But, he added, Bangladesh also needs to practise time-honoured and strategic good relationship on the move which is called "balancing".
The expert said it is a very obvious geopolitical fact that Bangladesh is surrounded by three sides - with lands by one country - India.
"We have another country which is not always friendly to us - Myanmar on the south and then we have the Bay of Bengal but we cannot control much of our Bay of Bengal, and we should remember that as well," Haider Khan said.
He said there are basically several balancing powers. "We have the US, the EU but more importantly, I would say we have China and Japan, especially with China as an emerging power. We need to monitor very carefully on dialogues amicably but substantively with China, and Japan at the same time. And who knows - we would be able to play a positive role in advancing East Asia, being a bridge country."
Haider Khan said they should send a message to the government that they are patriots who are willing to help it t
negotiate at this very difficult period now, and in the future. "We are ready to give all our expertise for these purposes.”
Responding to question, he said being a realist he does not think that the US and China can be decoupled so easily - especially the US from China.
Even in this crisis, it turns out that a lot of important medicines come to the US from China, he said.
Digital Divide
Renowned educationist and social activist Rasheda K. Chowdhury has signaled five major consequences, including large scale dropouts, amid disruption of educational activities due to COVID-19 and sought a comprehensive recovery plan involving teachers.
"It has to be a comprehensive recovery plan. In any recovery plan (for the education sector), teachers need to be involved," said Rasheda.
Anything otherwise, and whatever has been achieved till now in the education sector will be at risk.
Apart from ‘possible’ (since official numbers are not published yet) large scale dropouts, she also mentioned a possible concurrent increase in child labour, or early marriage for girls which will consequently increase early pregnancy and increasing malnutrition. The educationist said the COVID-19 is impacting on everything and there is need for COVID-19 recovery plan in education system. "There has to be investment."
Rasheda highlighted the educational deficit between Bangladesh and other countries citing UN statistics.
"Globally 1.2 billion learners are still out of educational institutions. Developed countries have reached out to those among their own populations but in Bangladesh we have 40 million students, ranging from pre-primary to higher education level," she said.
She noted that the government has been trying four methods to reduce learning loss after the closure of educational institutes due to COVID-19 pandemic --- televised lessons, online courses, radio broadcast and through mobile devices.
"(Despite the effort) we have not been able to reach out to large number of vulnerable student groups including women and ethnic minorities," said the educationist.
The CAMPE Director said girls will be hard hit all the time due to the pandemic and gender based violence inside home will increase as well.
Enayetullah Khan said they see a simultaneous disruption both in supply and demand chains.
The world, in the post-COVID-19 era, will be different one and the recovery will come in different ways.
Nahar Khan said as they can perceive, COVID-19 will remain a continuing challenge which will require a continuing response.
She said the Cosmos Foundation will host several such virtual discussions as part of a series focused on this issue.