China’s exports fell by 1.1% year-on-year in October, weighed down by a sharp 25% decline in shipments to the United States, according to government data released Friday.
Although trade tensions between Washington and Beijing have recently eased following an agreement between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to de-escalate the ongoing trade war, the slowdown continues to dampen global demand.
Customs figures show that October’s decline was the weakest performance since February, following an 8.3% surge in September. Imports, meanwhile, grew 1% from a year earlier, far below September’s 7.4% increase.
Shipments to the US have now fallen by double digits for seven consecutive months, as China seeks to expand its export markets in Southeast Asia and Africa. Analysts noted that last month’s downturn was also influenced by a high base from October 2024, when exports had jumped 12.6%, the fastest growth in over two years.
Economists said China’s struggling property sector and weak domestic spending remain significant drags on growth.
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During their late October meeting in South Korea, Trump and Xi agreed to roll back some tariffs and delay new port fees, while China suspended export curbs on rare earths for one year and pledged to buy more US agricultural products. In response, Washington eased some sanctions on Chinese firms.
Goldman Sachs economists forecast that Chinese export volumes could grow 5%–6% annually, helping boost the country’s global trade position. Capital Economics analysts Leah Fahy and Zichun Huang said the partial tariff cuts might slightly lift exports later this year, though the real effects would likely appear in early 2026.
BNP Paribas’s Wei Li predicted that any meaningful rebound in exports to the US would begin in the first quarter of next year and accelerate in the second.
Speaking at the China International Import Expo in Shanghai this week, Premier Li Qiang reaffirmed China’s commitment to “free markets and free trade,” while criticizing protectionist policies that harm developing economies.
Source: AP