China’s travel advisory against Japan is already hitting Tokyo’s tourism sector, signaling a familiar strategy that could continue for some time as tensions rise over Taiwan.
About 200 Chinese tourists have canceled bookings at a tearoom in Tokyo’s historic Asakusa district, with some cancellations extending into January. Rie Takeda, who runs the tea ceremony class, said she hopes visitors return by Chinese New Year, though past experience suggests the impact may last longer.
The advisory comes after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi warned that Japan’s military could intervene if China acted against Taiwan. Beijing reacted with economic and diplomatic pressure, using tactics similar to its past disputes with Australia, the Philippines, and other neighbors.
Experts say China may roll out further measures secretly, keeping Japan uncertain about the next steps. “Everything is possible, because this involves the core of the nation’s core interests,” said Liu Jiangyong, an international relations professor at Tsinghua University.
Japan has tried to avoid escalation but has not retracted its statements, reflecting a pattern seen in previous disputes where governments endure economic or diplomatic pain rather than appear to back down. Analysts note that similar conflicts can last over a year until political changes create a new environment for resolution.
The travel advisory is already affecting Japanese businesses. Hotels, tour operators, and cultural attractions have reported cancellations totaling thousands of guests. Economists estimate the impact could cost Japan about 1.8 trillion yen ($11.5 billion), reducing annual growth by 0.3 percentage points.
Chinese tourists are reacting differently: some cancel trips in line with the advisory, while others continue to visit. Business owners such as ski lodge operator Livia Du in Hokkaido said cancellations are being replaced by other travelers, though uncertainty remains.
China’s pressure extends beyond tourism. The release of Japanese films was postponed, entertainment events canceled, and seafood export restrictions remain unresolved. Rare earth exports, vital for global industries, could also be affected. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning warned that Japan must retract its statements or face further measures.
The situation underscores the ongoing tension between the two neighbors and highlights how China leverages economic and cultural influence to assert its stance on Taiwan-related issues.