The dramatic collapse of Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime presents both potential risks and possibilities for Israel, its neighbour. Israel, having engaged in multiple conflicts recently, is concerned about the instability in Syria spilling into its territory, reports AP
At the same time, it sees a chance to disrupt Iran’s weapon-smuggling routes through Syria to Hezbollah, the militant group in Lebanon.
Syrians line up at Turkish border crossing, awaiting return home
Over the weekend, Israel's military began taking control of the Syrian buffer zone, established in 1974 after a ceasefire agreement. Israel claims this move is temporary and aimed at securing its border. However, the action has drawn criticism, with accusations of violating the ceasefire and leveraging Syria's turmoil for territorial gain. The buffer zone lies adjacent to the Golan Heights, which Israel captured in 1967, later annexing it—a move unrecognised by most of the global community.
The Buffer Zone and Troop Deployment
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Israeli forces are occupying a roughly 400-square-kilometre demilitarised area established by the U.N. after the 1973 Mideast war. The U.N. Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) of 1,100 troops has patrolled this zone since its inception.
On a visit to the Golan Heights on Sunday, Netanyahu described Israel’s actions as a “temporary defensive position” necessitated by the withdrawal of Syrian forces. U.N. officials, however, warned Israel that this incursion violates the 1974 disengagement agreement. Despite these concerns, the buffer zone remains calm under U.N. supervision, though the Security Council is scheduled to discuss the matter following Russia’s call for consultations.
Rebels now controlling parts of Syria are led by a former al-Qaida militant who has since distanced himself from the extremist group, advocating for a representative government.
Netanyahu emphasised that the fall of Assad’s regime reflects the “heavy blows” dealt by Israel to Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran. He also mentioned Israel’s intent to secure the summit of Mount Hermon, a peak within the buffer zone at 2,814 metres.
Duration and Intent of Deployment
Israeli troops entered the buffer zone on Saturday, coinciding with an attack on U.N. forces near the Israeli border. Foreign Minister Gideon Saar clarified that Israel’s actions are preventive, aiming to avoid scenarios akin to Hamas' 2023 surprise attack.
Critics, including Egypt and Saudi Arabia, condemned Israel’s moves, accusing it of exploiting the Syrian conflict to gain territorial advantage. UNDOF, meanwhile, recovered some looted items following the attack on its forces.
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Temporary Measure or Precursor to Invasion?
Israel’s leadership insists that its presence in the buffer zone is temporary, intended to stabilise the border and support U.N. forces. Military officials highlighted that Israel has no plans to alter borders or invade further into Syria. This operation is viewed as a tactical response to current instability.
Experts agree, noting Israel’s primary aim is to secure its borders amid Syria’s volatile situation.
Strategic Interests
Israel seeks to prevent Syrian unrest from spreading across its border. Defense Minister Israel Katz outlined plans to establish a security zone and neutralise threats like heavy artillery and weapon smuggling by Iran.
Israel has also engaged Syria’s Druze population and maintains communication with Syrian rebel groups to limit Iranian influence in the region. Past humanitarian efforts, such as “Operation Good Neighbor,” might serve as a foundation for these renewed interactions.
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Israel’s approach reflects a balancing act between addressing immediate security concerns and leveraging the situation to counter regional adversaries.