Al-Shabab continues to pose the most serious immediate threat to peace and stability in Somalia and neighboring countries, particularly Kenya, according to a report released Wednesday by United Nations experts.
The panel said that despite sustained pressure from Somali forces and their international partners, the al-Qaida-linked group retains the capability to carry out complex and asymmetric attacks across Somalia. Its operational strength, they noted, has not been significantly reduced.
Beyond its ability to strike high-profile targets, including an attempted assassination of Somalia’s president in Mogadishu on March 18, the group also relies on widespread extortion, forced recruitment and a highly effective propaganda network to maintain influence.
On Tuesday, the UN Security Council unanimously extended the mandate of the African Union’s support and stabilization mission in Somalia through Dec. 31, 2026. The force comprises 11,826 uniformed personnel, including 680 police officers.
The experts warned that al-Shabab also presents a major security risk to Kenya, carrying out attacks ranging from improvised explosive device strikes on security forces to kidnappings, raids on homes, assaults on infrastructure and cattle theft.
According to the report, the group carried out an average of about six attacks per month in Kenya this year, mainly in Mandera and Lamu counties along the border with Somalia.
The panel said al-Shabab remains committed to overthrowing Somalia’s government, expelling foreign forces and creating a so-called Greater Somalia that would unite ethnic Somalis across East Africa under strict Islamic rule.
The experts also examined the presence of the Islamic State in Somalia, noting that ISIL-Somalia has recruited fighters from various parts of the world, mostly from East Africa. By the end of 2024, the group was estimated to have more than 1,000 fighters, at least 60% of them foreigners.
While smaller and less well-funded than al-Shabab, the panel said the Islamic State’s expansion still represents a serious threat to security in Somalia and the wider region.