In a political climate already charged with tension, a recent AP-NORC poll reveals that American voters harbour significant concerns about potential violence, interference, and threats to democracy following the upcoming presidential election.
Many are anxious about the possibility of disruptions to the peaceful transfer of power in the world’s oldest democracy, especially given the events that followed the 2020 election.
The survey, conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Centre for Public Affairs Research, indicates a profound unease among voters about the stability of the electoral process.
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Nearly four years after former President Donald Trump’s refusal to accept his 2020 defeat, which culminated in a violent assault on the US Capitol, approximately 40% of registered voters report feeling “extremely” or “very” concerned about post-election violence.
A similar proportion fears legal attempts to overturn the results, while about a third of respondents worry that local or state officials may refuse to certify the election outcome.
A Landscape of Persistent Concerns
Despite assurances about election integrity from various officials, voters across the political spectrum remain sceptical. Many say they fear legal manoeuvres could upend the results, while about a third of respondents express apprehension about election officials potentially interfering with the process.
Interestingly, only around one-third of those surveyed expressed minimal or no concern, highlighting a pervading scepticism regarding the political landscape.
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Fuelled by repeated assertions of fraud, Trump has continued to allege that his 2020 loss was the result of rigging. He has also pre-emptively suggested that the 2024 election outcome will be suspect if he does not emerge victorious.
His supporters and the Republican National Committee have filed legal challenges across multiple states, a move viewed by many as groundwork for contesting the election should he lose again.
Aostara Kaye, a voter from Downey, California, voiced frustration over Trump’s continued influence. “I thought after January 6 of 2021, the GOP would have the sense to reject him as a candidate. Since they didn’t, it’s emboldened him to think he can do anything,” she remarked.
Concerns over Trump’s Willingness to Concede
In a finding reflective of the intense polarisation in the country, nearly nine in ten voters believe that the loser of the election should concede once all votes have been counted and any legal challenges resolved.
However, only a third of voters are confident Trump would accept a loss, underscoring a lack of trust in his adherence to democratic norms. Views on this issue are sharply divided along party lines; approximately two-thirds of Republican voters believe Trump would concede if he loses, while only around one in ten Democrats agree.
Conversely, when asked about Vice President Kamala Harris, who is anticipated to be Trump’s likely opponent, almost 80% of respondents believe she would accept a loss graciously, including a solid majority of Republican voters.
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This stark contrast underscores the differing perceptions surrounding each candidate’s commitment to democratic principles and the rule of law.
As the 2024 election approaches, concerns about election security, interference, and acceptance of results remain at the forefront of American voters' minds. Many hope for a smooth and peaceful transition but remain anxious that post-election turbulence may undermine confidence in the nation’s democratic process.