United News of Bangladesh

Bangladesh’s economic outlook for August 2025 shows signs of stabilisation on the external front but troubling weaknesses in domestic investment, revenue collection and development spending, according to a government report. The latest monthly economic update by the General Economics Division (GED) under the Planning Ministry said inflation declined to 8.29 percent in August, the lowest since July 2022, after months of volatility that saw double-digit inflation from July to December 2024. Non-food inflation dropped below 9 percent for the first time in 20 months, helping offset a marginal rise in food prices. Food inflation stabilised at 7.6 percent for three consecutive months, a sharp improvement from the 14 percent peak in July 2024. Rice remains the single largest driver of food inflation, contributing 48.37 percent in August. Government procurement of 1.7 million tons of Boro rice, imports of half a million tons duty-free and higher distribution under public food schemes are expected to ease prices in the coming months. Still, GED noted that delays in real-time monitoring and policy response prevented earlier stabilisation. The report highlighted a robust performance in the external sector. Export earnings consistently crossed the $4 billion mark, hitting $4.77 billion in July 2025. The exchange rate remained stable at Tk 121–122 per USD, while foreign exchange reserves climbed from $24.86 billion in September 2024 to $31.17 billion in August 2025. This, according to GED, provided a solid cushion against trade shocks and debt obligations. Despite positive external indicators, the domestic financial sector showed deep stress. Private sector credit growth plunged to 6.49 percent in June 2025 — the lowest on record and far short of Bangladesh Bank’s target. Businesses remain reluctant to borrow amid high interest rates, political and economic uncertainty, and cautious bank lending. Commerce Adviser stresses surplus economy for sustainable growth By contrast, public sector credit rose sharply by 13.09 percent, driven by the government’s heavy reliance on bank borrowing to finance its fiscal deficit. This trend, GED warned, is effectively “crowding out” the private sector and undermining future investment and job creation. Revenue collection in August stood at Tk 27,162 crore, falling Tk 3,727 crore short of the target. While collections grew 17.6 percent year-on-year, the shortfall was mainly due to weaker import and income tax receipts. Only VAT at the local level showed improvement. The report flagged persistent revenue gaps as a key challenge in meeting the ambitious annual target of Tk 4,99,000 crore. Development spending remains another weak spot. ADP utilization dropped to 2.39 percent of allocation in the July–August period of FY26, down from 2.57 percent in the same period last year. Although August utilisation improved slightly year-on-year (1.71 percent vs 1.52 percent), GED noted that such low early-year implementation reflects structural bottlenecks, bureaucratic delays, and poor fund release capacity, raising the risk of back-loaded spending and inefficiency. While the decline in inflation and strengthening of reserves signal macroeconomic stability, GED cautioned that the domestic economy faces significant headwinds. Weak private investment, revenue shortfalls, and under-utilisation of development funds threaten to slow growth momentum. “The economy is showing resilience externally but risks remain high domestically. Without urgent measures to stimulate private credit, enhance revenue collection, and accelerate ADP implementation, medium-term growth prospects may weaken,” the report said.

The General Economics Division (GED) of the planning ministry has projected a gradual economic recovery for Bangladesh, buoyed by favourable  trends in exports, remittances, a stable exchange rate, and easing inflationary pressures. In its April 2025 Economic Update and Outlook, the GED noted that improved investor confidence—particularly following the successful Bangladesh Investment Summit 2025—along with a moderately tight but accommodative monetary policy, is expected to further support industrial growth. The report highlighted the need to reduce commercial lending interest rates to stimulate investment. The GED emphasised the importance of tackling non-performing loans and boosting banking sector efficiency to improve access to credit. It also stressed the government’s ongoing efforts toward fiscal consolidation, which are expected to strengthen fiscal accounts. “Enhancing efficiency in the selection of development projects—prioritising sustainability—will increase the prospects for quality growth,” the report added. While inflation is expected to remain stable between 8.0% and 9.0% during April and May 2025, it remains a concern. Food inflation, which surged to 10.65% in FY2023-24, eased to 8.93% in March 2025 after the availability of winter vegetables improved supply. Key contributors to overall inflation in March included rice (14.62%), fish (11.58%), and vegetables (6.08%). Notably, the prices of brinjal (17.12%), medium rice (16.73%), and hilsa (11.37%) drove up food costs—partly due to seasonal demand during Ramadan and the Bengali New Year. However, rural areas continue to face higher inflation, highlighting the need for more efficient food supply chain management. According to the report Bangladesh’s external sector showed signs of strength in March 2025, with remittances reaching a record $3.29 billion—up 65% year-on-year—boosted by Eid-related transfers and a shift to formal remittance channels following regulatory tightening. From July 2024 to March 2025, total remittances climbed to $21.77 billion, compared to $16.69 billion during the same period the previous year. Foreign exchange reserves rose accordingly, now standing at approximately $25.62 billion. Exports also saw an 11.44% year-on-year increase, reaching $4.25 billion, largely driven by the readymade garment sector. Bangladesh’s diplomatic engagement with the U.S. over reciprocal tariffs has resulted in a temporary reprieve, with the country agreeing to increase imports of American agricultural products. The report noted that despite external gains, investment activity remains subdued. In February 2025, deposit growth slowed to 7.88%, while private sector credit growth was just 7.15%—among the lowest in recent years. Reserves breach $22 bn-mark on back of strong currency, remittances Contributing factors included high lending rates, political and economic uncertainty, and weakened bank health, with around 10 banks seeing diminished lending capacity due to irregularities. Increased government borrowing from commercial banks—up 60% year-on-year—has further strained private sector credit availability. In March, the Taka traded within a narrow band of Tk 121.5755–121.9542 per U.S. dollar, reflecting relative exchange rate stability despite growing demand for LCs and foreign currency. Remittances helped stabilize the currency, with the improved foreign reserve position enhancing the outlook for the external sector. After a weak first quarter, with GDP growing just 1.96% due to industrial slowdown and floods affecting agriculture, the second quarter of FY2025 saw a rebound to 4.48%. Growth was driven largely by the industrial sector, which grew 7.1% in Q2, led by manufacturing (8.49%), mining and quarrying (8.01%), and wholesale and retail trade (6.63%), said the report. While the economic recovery is underway, the GED underscores the need for accelerated reforms, investment stimulation, and structural improvements to sustain the momentum.

The size of Bangladesh’s economy will be $1 trillion by 2040, if the current consecutive growth of over 6 percent continues while it will be achieved by 2030 if the growth goes over 8 percent, said an official document of the planning ministry. The information has also been placed in the updated picture of the economy of Bangladesh presented by the ministry of planning in the meeting of the Executive Committee of the National Economic Council (ECNEC), on Tuesday. The document stated that the average economic growth of Bangladesh has been 6.4 percent in the last six years. Even if this growth falls below 5 percent, the economy of Bangladesh will touch the milestone of trillion dollars by 2040. Read more: Social stability now economy’s main challenge: Planning Minister  But if economic growth increases to 8 to 9 percent and internal stability is maintained, it will reach trillion dollars by 2030. The Canadian online publication Visual Capitalist on December 29 published the statistics of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) showing the size of Bangladesh's economy at $465 billion. Bangladesh was ranked 35th among major economies last year.

A relevant parliamentary committee on Wednesday recommended the National Board of Revenue (NBR) to take necessary steps for waiving import duty of sports items. The Parliamentary Standing Committee on Youth and Sports Ministry made the recommendation in its 13th meeting in order to promote sports in the country. The meeting was held with committee chairman Abdullah Al Islam Jakob at the Jatiya Sangsad Bhaban, said a handout of the parliament. Also read: Cabinet purchase body nods import of 50,000MT rice Suggestions were made to construct 178 Upazila Youth Training and Entertainment Centres in the first phase as part of the establishment of a centre in every upazila in line with the government’s electoral manifesto. It also recommended the ministry to send a development project proforma (DPP) over construction of some buildings, including an administrative building of the Directorate of Sports on the campus of Physical Education College in the city’s Mohammadpur area and academic building of the college, to the Planning Ministry. Also read: Purchase body okays 6 proposals including import of LNG, rice The parliamentary committee asked for sending a letter to the Fisheries and Livestock Ministry for handing over its land to Sheikh Hasina National Youth Development Institute for construction of its structures to implement the plans of the institute. Committee members Mahabub Ara Begum Gini (Gaibandha-2), Abdus Salam Murshedi (Khulna-4), Jewel Areng (Mymensingh-1), AM Naimur Rahman (Manikganj-1) and Zakia Tabassum attended the meeting.

Planning Minister MA Mannan on Friday said the government’s goal is to ensure good governance in Bangladesh with the assistance of the media.