International Monetary Fund
IMF suggests upward policy rate in 2025 to restrain inflation: BB
With Bangladesh facing higher inflation for a long time, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has advised keeping the policy interest rate on the rise until inflation decreases.
Bangladesh Bank Spokesperson and Executive Director Huseara Shikha hinted this while talking to reporters at her office on Tuesday.
She said this ahead of a delegation led by IMF mission Chief Chris Papadakis, scheduled to visit Bangladesh from December 3 to 17 to review the IMF conditions.
The IMF says that inflation in Bangladesh is currently above 11 percent. It will remain around 10 percent throughout 2025, and after that, the international donor agency believes it may come down to 6 to 7 percent.
The fourth tranche of the US $4.7 billion loan program depends on fulfilling the conditions given by the global lender.
Read: BB Governor projects inflation reduction in 8 months
The IMF imposed conditions on Bangladesh for providing this loan.
Although almost all the conditions given by the lender are on track to be met, it is well behind the revenue collection target. However, the installment has already been released after showing progress in fulfilling most of the conditions.
Earlier, in January 2023, the IMF approved a $4.7 billion loan for Bangladesh. It was supposed to provide this loan to Bangladesh subject to conditions.
The IMF delegation is reviewing each installment of this loan, which was given in seven installments, before releasing it.
2 weeks ago
IMF advises Bangladesh Bank to disclose full report on banks’ financial health
The visiting International Monetary Fund (IMF) delegation has advised Bangladesh Bank to disclose detailed and complete information regarding bad and risky loans fin the public interest.
Meeting sources said that the visiting IMF delegation gave this suggestion in the meeting held with the BB officials on Sunday (April 28).
In the meeting, the IMF asked to make the financial health of the banks and the inspection report open to the customers. At the same time, it urged to increase the number of inspections to prevent irregularities-corruption and loan scams.
Officials concerned in the meeting said that bad loans or risky assets are increasing in banks due to various irregularities including big loan scams. Several banks have weakened which also acknowledged by the BB Governor.
Therefore, the IMF believes that the deposits of those banks which are in trouble are also at risk. In such a situation, the global lender suggested that the banks should disclose the full report of risky assets to the customers.
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According to the IMF Officials, “If these reports are published, the customers will be able to make informed decisions about keeping their deposits.”
In the meeting, the IMF sought to know whether the central bank's inspection of banks' financial health is continuing or not. Clarification has also been sought as to whether inspection reports are disclosed to customers or not.
In addition, the IMF delegation suggested increasing the quality and number of inspections to prevent irregularities, corruption and loan scams, sources said.
When asked about the meeting with the BB, the executive director and spokesperson of the BB Mesbaul Haque said that the meetings with the IMF are ongoing. This meeting will be held step by step till May 8. He did not agree to make any comment other than that and said the details will be given in future.
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7 months ago
Bangladesh among 30 countries with the highest purchasing power parity in the world
Bangladesh has ranked 26th among 30 countries with the highest Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) in the World.
According to finance website, Insider Monkey, Bangladesh has a per capita GDP of $9.41 thousand based on purchasing power parity. In 2021, the country's GDP was little more than $1 trillion. In three years, it has risen to $1.6 trillion, making Bangladesh one of the world's fastest-growing economies today. GDP (PPP): $1,573,205,815,650, as per Insider Monkey.
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Top 10 countries with the highest purchasing power parity in the world:
1 China
GDP (PPP): $35,102,468,294,640
2. United States
GDP (PPP): $28,212,584,701,080
3. India
GDP (PPP): $13,837,886,095,650
4. Japan
GDP (PPP): $6,693,210,775,800
5. Germany
GDP (PPP): $5,737,921,135,920
6. Russia
GDP (PPP): $5,180,512,624,880
7. Indonesia
GDP (PPP): $4,706,381,666,640
8. Brazil
GDP (PPP): $4,533,438,662,610
9. France
GDP (PPP): $4,161,339,481,020
10. United Kingdom
GDP (PPP): $3,967,703,923,320
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What is PPP?
Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is a macroeconomic concept used to compare the relative value of currencies between different countries. Value refers to how much purchasing a currency can do compared to different countries. So, to find that out, economists apply PPP, which is the exchange rate at which one country’s currency would be converted into another to purchase an identical basket of goods and services. The PPP metric is usually used to measure economic productivity and standards of living between countries, according to Insider Monkey.
In other words, utilising purchasing power parity, GDP is translated to a common baseline currency (international dollars), allowing for more realistic comparisons of nations and their worldwide positions.
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Methodology
For its list of the ‘30 Countries with the Highest Purchasing Power Parity in the World’, Insider Monkey calculated the PPP using the GDP per capita by PPP of the 50 top countries with the largest economies in the world and their population. It then shortlisted the top 30 and compiled the list in ascending order. The base data for GDP per capita and population has been sourced from the International Monetary Fund and the CIA’s database and is accurate to 2024, the finance website said.
8 months ago
AI could threaten 40% of global jobs, IMF warns
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has sounded an alarm, indicating that nearly 40% of global employment could be endangered by the burgeoning influence of artificial intelligence (AI). This stark warning, reported by CNN, underscores the seismic shifts anticipated in the global job market.
IMF Chief Kristalina Georgieva, in a recent blog post, stressed the critical necessity for governments worldwide to fortify social safety nets and roll out comprehensive retraining programmes. This proactive approach aims to mitigate AI's potentially dramatic effects on employment.
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Highlighting a key concern, Georgieva pointed out the potential for AI adoption to aggravate existing inequalities, a trend that requires immediate policy intervention to avert escalating social tensions. This issue is set to be a central theme at the upcoming annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, where AI's role in the economy will be a focal point.
According to the IMF's analysis, advanced economies might witness the most significant impact, with up to 60% of jobs at risk. Although AI promises to enhance productivity in about half of these roles, the remainder faces a stark reality of diminishing demand, lowered wages, and potential unemployment as AI assumes roles traditionally held by humans.
UN chief warns of risks of artificial intelligence
Emerging markets and lower-income countries are not immune to these challenges. Here, 40% and 26% of jobs, respectively, may feel the impact. Georgieva raised concerns about these regions' lack of infrastructure and skilled workforces, factors that intensify the risk of AI deepening existing economic divides.
Georgieva also warned of an escalating risk of social unrest, especially if younger, tech-savvy workers leverage AI for productivity gains, leaving their older counterparts struggling to adapt.
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At Davos, the implications of AI on employment are a key discussion topic. Prominent figures, including Sam Altman, CEO of ChatGPT-maker OpenAI, and Microsoft's Satya Nadella, are slated to address the impact of generative AI technologies.
Despite these challenges, Georgieva did not overlook AI's positive potentials, noting its capacity to significantly boost global output and incomes. She argued that with thoughtful planning, AI could be a transformative force for the global economy, stressing the importance of channeling its benefits for the collective good.
Amidst concerns over job displacement, some economists are optimistic, suggesting that AI's widespread adoption may ultimately enhance labor productivity. This could potentially lead to a 7% annual increase in global GDP over the next decade.
11 months ago
Despite relaxed conditions, Bangladesh couldn’t meet IMF’s forex reserves target in 2023
Despite relaxed conditions for net reserves by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Bangladesh could not meet the foreign exchange reserves target at the end of 2023.
According to the IMF loan documents, the actual reserves were supposed to be USD $17.78 billion at the end of December 2023. However, as the year ended, the actual reserves stood at about $16.75 billion.
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Bangladesh Bank could not meet the reserves target as per IMF conditions by September-end as well. Later, the global lender reduced the reserves conservation target at the request of Bangladesh. Even the revised target could not be achieved by the end of December 2023.
According to IMF's new conditions, the real reserves are expected to be $19.26 billion in March and $20.10 billion in June 2024. However, financial sector stakeholders cannot determine whether this goal will be achieved.
The real reserve is the reserve that is calculated after excluding the SDR of the IMF, the dollars kept as foreign exchange clearing by the banks, and the dollars deposited for the Asian Clearing Union (ACU) bills.
Apart from this, there are two other accounts of reserve. One of them is total reserve. Another IMF accounting system is reserves maintained under BPM6.
At the end of the year 2023, total forex reserves increased to $27 billion. However, what the IMF considers is only net or real reserves.
Md Mezbaul Haque, spokesperson and executive director of Bangladesh Bank told UNB that the central bank worked to keep the reserves above $17 billion, as per the IMF-set target.
Former IMF economist Dr Ahsan H Mansur told UNB that it is unexpected that the IMF-set target could not be met even after reducing the previous target.
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He also doubted that Bangladesh Bank will be able to maintain IMF’s foreign exchange reserves target in March 2024, if the central bank does not change its policies.
11 months ago
IMF relaxes forex reserve and revenue targets for $4.70 billion loan
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has relaxed several targets including foreign exchange reserves, revenue collection, automatic price adjustment of fuel for the $4.70 billion loan package for Bangladesh.
At the beginning of this year, the IMF had set forex reserves target at $25.34 billion by September and $26.81 billion by June next year as conditions for the loan package.
According to BPM6 – reserve calculation method – Bangladesh’s forex reserves stand at $21.15 billion.
Bangladesh urged IMF to downsize required reserves to $20 billion for next loan instalment, says official
On a net basis, this amount has further decreased to below $18 billion.
In this situation, the Finance Division officials requested the IMF to relax the target for forex reserves.
Considering the request, the IMF has relaxed the target. Bangladesh has committed to keep the reserves at $18.4 billion at the end of December this year, and at $20 billion at the end of June next year.
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Last Tuesday and Wednesday, the visiting IMF delegation discussed the issues with the relevant officials of the Finance Division of the Ministry of Finance.
Sources in the Finance Division said that after discussion, IMF agreed on being flexible on some conditions. Finance Secretary Md. Khairuzzaman Majumder led the meeting on behalf of the government. The IMF mission was led by Rahul Anand, head of the IMF’s Asia-Pacific division.
IMF team holds meeting with Power Division, discusses subsidy
1 year ago
Bangladesh urged IMF to downsize required reserves to $20 billion for next loan instalment, says official
Bangladesh has now requested the International Monetary Fund to lower the requirement of foreign exchange reserves at $20 billion as a condition of releasing the second installment of the $4.7 billion loans, an official of Bangladesh Bank confirmed this on Monday (October 16, 2023).
The request was made to the visiting IMF delegation that reviewed with the officials the progress in meeting its conditions.
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Despite different measures taken by including cutting unnecessary and luxury goods imports, in the last three months, gross reserves declined by $2.58 billion.
Two main sources of foreign exchange earnings –inward remittances flow saw a record decline to $1.34 billion in September and export earnings failed to achieve the target.
Considering the situation the central bank proposed to the IMF mission led by Rahul Anand to revise the reserves down to $20 billion.
Under the terms of the $4.7 billion IMF loan, the actual reserves were supposed to be maintained at $24.46 billion last June and $25.30 billion in September. At the end of December, Bangladesh must maintain at least $26.81 billion in net reserves.
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The net forex reserves are now less than $18 billion, according to the calculations of Dr Zahid Hussain, a former lead economist of the World Bank's Dhaka office.
However, the IMF also suggested that BB fix the exchange rate of US dollars on competitive market price, which is now being set by the Bangladesh Foreign Exchange Dealers’ Association (BAFEDA) in the concentration of the BB.
The central bank earlier relaxed the exchange rate of the US dollar gradually and now the official exchange rate is Tk112 per dollar.
Economist Dr Ahsan H Mansur said that Bangladesh has to maintain strict monitoring of trade-based money laundering along with cutting unnecessary imports to check the downslide.
Read: IMF lowers growth forecast for current fiscal to 6 percent
1 year ago
IMF lowers growth forecast for current fiscal to 6 percent
After the World Bank did it last week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) today (October 11, 2023) revised downward its growth forecast for the Bangladesh economy in the 2023-24 fiscal.
The IMF lowered its projection to 6.0 percent from 6.5 percent. The World Bank last week projected its new growth figure for the Bangladesh economy in 2023-24 as 5.6 percent, down from its previous projection of 6.2 percent.
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The IMF also said Bangladesh's economy grew 6 percent in the 2022-23 fiscal, in its flagship World Economic Outlook publication, released globally on Tuesday.
The global lender revised upward its projections for Bangladesh's growth to 6 percent for the fiscal year 2022-23 from its previous forecast of 5.5 percent.
IMF satisfied with BBS for efforts to meet conditions: Official
1 year ago
Despite many challenges, Bangladesh remains one of the fastest growing economies in Asia-Pacific: Visiting IMF team
The visiting team of International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said that despite many challenges, Bangladesh’s growth is progressive.
In a statement released on Sunday, Rahul Anand, IMF Mission Chief for Bangladesh, said: “Against a challenging economic backdrop, Bangladesh remains one of the fastest growing economies in the Asia-Pacific region. However, persistent inflationary pressures, elevated volatility of global financial conditions, and slowdown in major advanced trading partners continue to weigh on growth, foreign currency reserves, and the Taka.”
Also Read: IMF satisfied with progress of BBS’ GDP and inflation data updated under new method
The team led by Anand arrived in Dhaka on April 25 to discuss recent macroeconomic and financial sector developments. The delegation also went over the progress made towards meeting key commitments under the IMF-supported program.
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“This will be formally assessed in the first review of the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) / Extended Fund Facility (EFF) / Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) arrangements, which is expected to be undertaken later this year,” Anand’s statement said.
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During the visit, the IMF team held meetings with Bangladesh Bank Governor Abdur Rouf Talukder, Finance Secretary Fatima Yasmin, and other senior government and Bangladesh Bank officials. The delegation also met with representatives from the private sector, bilateral donors and development partners.
1 year ago
IMF approves $4.7 billion loan for Bangladesh
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has approved a loan of $4.7 billion for Bangladesh, the global lender has said in a statement.
The loan request was approved at the IMF Executive Board meeting in Washington, USA on Monday night.
Bangladesh has welcomed the IMF’s move.
According to the IMF, Bangladesh will get this loan in seven instalments over the next 42 months. The average interest on the loan will be 2.2 percent.
Of the total amount, $3.3 billion will be available from the IMF’s ‘Enhanced Credit Support’ while $1.4 billion will come under the ‘Resilience and Sensibility Facility’.
The IMF said in the statement that the loan will help stabilise Bangladesh's macroeconomy, implement necessary reforms to build capacity for social and development spending, strengthen the financial sector, modernise policy frameworks and address climate change.
The lending agency said that Bangladesh’s robust economic recovery from the pandemic has been interrupted by Russia’s war in Ukraine, leading to a sharp widening of Bangladesh’s current account deficit, depreciation of the Taka and a decline in foreign exchange reserves.
It further said that the authorities have taken on a comprehensive set of measures to deal with these latest economic disruptions.
Read more: IMF now expects world economy to grow 2.9% in 2023
The authorities recognise that in addition to tackling these immediate challenges, long-standing structural issues and vulnerabilities related to climate change will also need to be addressed to accelerate growth, attract private investment, enhance productivity, and build climate resilience, the IMF statement clarified.
Finance Minister AHM Mustafa Kamal in a statement thanked the IMF for the loan approval.
In a statement, the finance minister said, "Many had doubts that the IMF might not give us this loan."
"They thought that the fundamental areas of our macroeconomy were weak, so the IMF would refrain from lending, but (it) took the right decision evaluating Bangladesh’s economy,” he said.
This loan approval also proves that the fundamental areas of Bangladesh macroeconomy are standing in a strong position, which is better than many other countries, Kamal said.
1 year ago