Bangladesh, a South Asian country with a population of 18 crore people going through a political instability, expects substantial export growth although the Global trade dynamics have undergone significant shifts in recent years. A document of the Ministry of Finance expected the growth based on the projection of the World Trade Organization (WTO). Although global trade experienced contraction in 2023, it will increase in 2024 and onwards, according to the World Trade Organization (WTO). WTO also mentioned that the world merchandise trade volume has the potential to increase by 2.6 percent in 2024 and 3.3 percent in 2025. It explained that as inflation will come down, people will tend to buy more goods which will boost exports. However, the advanced economies are likely to experience relatively modest export growth compared to the Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs), including that of Bangladesh. EMDs are the countries that are often considered to have faster economic growth than others. Exports of the EMDEs, on the other hand, are expected to grow approximately by 4 percent in the medium-term, according to the document. Bangladesh sets export earnings growth target at 15% this fiscal As per country-specific projections, Bangladesh's export growth (volume) experienced a slowdown from 8.79 percent in 2023 while expected to be 3.93 percent in 2024. But the document says that it will be picking up pace again and reach 8.83 percent by 2027. The Euro area, which faced a significant contraction in 2023, is expected to recover gradually, with export growth rates around 3 percent from 2025 onward. China's export growth rate is expected to remain moderate, ranging from 1.8 percent in 2025 to 2.85 percent in 2026 while India's export growth is forecasted to rebound strongly from a contraction of -2.76 percent in 2023 to around 4 percent in 2025. The UK's export growth outlook is subdued, with contractions in 2023 and 2024, followed by modest growth rates below 2 percent until 2027. In contrast, the USA is projected to maintain a relatively stable export growth rate of around 3 percent throughout the forecast period from 2024 to 2027. With the gradual recovery of exports, the official document said that imports are also expected to rebound in the medium-term (2026-27). Like export performance, the EMDEs are projected to outperform the advanced economies in terms of import growth, driven by factors like infrastructure investments and expanding consumer markets. While the global import outlook points towards a gradual recovery, the document mentioned that country-specific dynamics reveal varied trajectories. Finance Ministry proposes new MDs for 10 state owned banks  For example, the IMF projected that Bangladesh's import volume growth is expected to rebound sharply from a contraction in 2023 to see modest growth in 2024 (4.1 percent) and robust growth in 2025 (about 18.0 percent). China is expected to experience a declining trend in import growth with 3.4 percent in 2024 and 0.9 percent in 2025, while export growth in India is expected to accelerate from 4.8 percent in 2024 to 6.6 percent in 2025 and onward. Import growth in advanced economies like the UK and the USA is projected to remain low, with the UK even posting negative growth in 2025.

In a step towards global trade compliance, the National Board of Revenue (NBR) has undertaken a comprehensive review of Bangladesh's tariff regime, identifying 60 tariff lines where current customs duties and associated charges surpass the bound rates established in the World Trade Organization (WTO) agreements. As part of its initial measures, customs duties on 6 items have been reduced, signaling Bangladesh's commitment to aligning its trade practices with international standards. The initiative, detailed in an official document, sets forth a plan to gradually adjust these rates to fall within the WTO-agreed bound tariffs by 2026. Bound tariffs represent the maximum most-favored nation (MFN) tariff rate a country commits to at the WTO, serving as a ceiling that applied tariffs cannot exceed. This regulatory framework ensures that trade policies remain predictable and stable, providing security for traders and investors. NBR’s three-pronged strategy to boost revenue collection Countries typically negotiate bound tariffs during their accession to the WTO or through subsequent trade negotiations, setting these rates higher than their applied tariffs to retain policy flexibility. However, exceeding these bound rates without proper adjustments can lead to international disputes and demands for compensation, emphasizing the importance of adherence. The recalibration effort by Bangladesh reflects a broader trend among WTO members, where developed, developing, and transitioning economies have significantly increased the proportion of imports with bound tariff rates, enhancing global market stability. Additionally, the government has resolved to eliminate the minimum import price requirement, already removing it from 55 items with a strategic plan to phase it out entirely from the remaining 130 products by 2026. This move aims to simplify the import process and foster a more competitive market environment. The document outlines a cautious approach to tariff reduction, ensuring that local industries are not adversely affected and that revenue mobilization remains robust. The NBR's strategy involves a careful balancing act, prioritizing the protection of domestic sectors while advancing the country's export competitiveness. NBR collects nearly Tk 2 lakh crore in 7 months, growth over 15% This progressive adjustment of customs duties and the abolition of the minimum import price underscore Bangladesh's efforts to integrate more seamlessly into the global trading system, promoting economic growth and development in alignment with WTO commitments.

Despite the anticipated challenges in 2024, there are indications that international market demand for RMG products will rise, a director at BGMEA said today (January 01, 2024).  "If we can uphold internal supply chains, increase investments in new products and markets, we will be able to sustain the desired growth," said BGMEA Director Mohiuddin Rubel in a statement. He said it is difficult to predict the trajectory for 2024, given the uncertainties in the international economic and geopolitical landscape.  BGMEA chief emphasizes innovation, tech upgrade, skills training to retain global competitiveness Factors such as supply chain disruptions and inflation play a crucial role here.  Additionally, there are pressures on the internal economy, including a decline in foreign exchange reserves and the significant challenge of keeping inflation in check, Rubel said.  Furthermore, he said, the protection of industries is very important to attract investments and maintain competitiveness. The global scenario for the apparel sector in 2023 was not as good as 2022.  According to the WTO, global apparel exports reached $576 billion in 2022.  Rubel said, clothing imports from Europe and America have already decreased. Refrain from programmes which hamper country, economy: BGMEA President He said the two main markets for Bangladesh when assessed collectively were not able to put any remarkable impact to "our growth".  On the other hand, Rubel said, RMG exports to non-traditional markets saw a substantial increase.  In summary, he said, growth in non-traditional markets has contributed to the overall growth in Bangladesh’s RMG exports. Sustainable fashion: Bangladesh's RMG sector leads with 24 new LEED green factories in 2023

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on Tuesday asked the international community to seriously consider the proposals for extension of LDC-specific support measures like preferential market access and the TRIPS waiver for a certain period after graduation. “Graduating LDCs need extension of LDC-specific support measures, such as preferential market access and the TRIPS waiver for a certain period after graduation," she said. The PM said, "The LDC Group in WTO has already placed its proposals on these issues. Those proposals should be seriously considered by the international community, especially given the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine." The premier was addressing as a co-chair in a high-level thematic roundtable entitled “Enhancing the participation of Least Developed Countries (LDCs) in International Trade and Regional Integration’ held during the Fifth United Nations Conference on the Least Developed Countries (LDC-5 Conference) at Qatar National Convention Centre (QNCC) here in Doha.  Hasina said “We need to re-double our efforts to achieve the targets that we have set for ourselves in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and in the Doha Programme of Action. This requires concerted efforts at national, regional, and global levels,” She hoped that this roundtable session would assess the state-of-play of international support measures against the challenges that LDCs are currently facing.  “Our approach and commitments should be pragmatic, realistic, and well-designed to enhance LDCs' productive capacity,” she said. She said trade will continue to remain a key driver of development for graduating and graduated LDCs. “You would perhaps recall that the Istanbul Programme of Action aspired to double the LDCs’ trade share. However, their share of trade still remains as low as 1%,” she added. Read more: Bangladeshi diplomats have to be active in strengthening economic diplomacy: PM in Doha “To be competitive in the global market, LDCs must focus on enhancing their trade-related infrastructure, building productive capacity, and utilizing preferential market access. For achieving these objectives, LDCs require support and investment for connectivity, human capital, trade finance and technology transfer,” said the premier. Focusing on Bangladesh, she said her government has placed significant emphasis on improving national and cross-border connectivity by constructing a multimodal transport system. “It will reduce costs, enhance efficiency, and promote regional and international trade,” she said “We are also implementing various initiatives aimed at developing skills, increasing productivity, improving intellectual property regime, and enhancing our competitiveness,” she added. The PM said her government’s policy is to engage the private sector to participate in national development. “Working hand in hand, we have so far brought the country to the present stage of LDC graduation. Our near-term priority is to ensure smooth and sustainable graduation,” she said. President of the Republic of Burundi Évariste Ndayishimiye was another co-chair of the high-level event. Heads of state and government, and ministers from different countries, representatives of observers, relevant entities of the United Nations system and other accredited intergovernmental organizations, among others, participated in the event.  

Speakers at a discussion meeting said the proposals that had been placed in the 12th ministerial conference (MC-12) of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in Geneva were not getting prioritised due to the negligence of developed countries. They gave the opinion at a discussion titled “WTO-MC12 Outcomes: Next Steps for Bangladesh as a Graduating LDC”, organised by CPD in partnership with Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES), Bangladesh, held at the CIRDAP conference hall on Sunday. They said Bangladesh is the only country that has adequately utilised the opportunities available as an LDC. The speakers said the country has increased exports using preferential market facilities, but the question now is whether such opportunities will continue. They said the announcement of MC-12 mentions several challenges after graduation, but no promises were made to overcome them. Read: Global trade will grow a lackluster 1% in 2023, WTO predicts CPD’s distinguished fellow professor Dr. Mustafizur Rahman presented a keynote paper on the topic, highlighting that the demands of least developed countries have been ignored in the WTO-MC12. The conference prioritised important agenda for developed and wealthy countries. Dr. Mustafizur said the main agenda of Bangladesh is the LDC graduation. “Most of the six countries with earlier graduations are small economies. Bangladesh is a country that was able to take maximum advantage. But many benefits will be lost after graduation from the LDC. Almost 90 percent of the benefits in the export sector will not be there for Bangladesh,” he said. He said if export performance is to be sustained and improved, shifting from the choice-driven competition to efficiency and productivity-driven competition is very vital. He said that the government should set up a separate and dedicated cell to exclusively discuss and secure Bangladesh's interests in international trade platforms. Read: WTO Conference: Bangladesh speaks against sudden ban on food export He also said that because of the negligence of the rich countries, the graduating countries weaken. “We need to change our mindset considering the future as non-LDC developing country. Priority should be given to issues related to regional cooperation and bilateral trade agreements,” Dr. Mustafiz said. Yussuf Abdullah Harun, MP, Member, Standing Committee on Ministry of Commerce, was present as chief guest while Dr. Debapriya Bhattacharya, Distinguished Fellow of CPD, chaired the programme. Tapan Kanti Ghosh, Senior Secretary, Ministry of Commerce, Md. Jashim Uddin, President, Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industries (FBCCI), Hafizur Rahman, Director General, WTO Cell of Ministry of Commerce, and Dr. Mostafa Abid Khan, Trade specialist and former Member of Bangladesh Tariff and Trade Commission, Felix Kolbitz, Resident Representative of FES spoke at the event.

After all-night talks, members of the World Trade Organization early Friday reached a string of deals and commitments aimed to limit overfishing, broaden production of COVID-19 vaccines in the developing world, improve food security and reform a 27-year-old trade body that has been back on its heels in recent years. WTO Director-General Nzogi Okonjo-Iweala, after a pair of sleepless nights in rugged negotiations, concluded the WTO’s first ministerial conference in 4-1/2 years by trumpeting a new sense of cooperation at a time when the world faces crises like Russia’s war in Ukraine and a once-in-a-century pandemic that has taken millions of lives. “The package agreements you have reached will make a difference to the lives of people around the world,” said Okonjo-Iweala, landing what she called an “unprecedented package of deliverables” after 15 months in the job. “The outcomes demonstrate that the WTO is in fact capable of responding to emergencies of our time.” The agreements could breathe new life into a trade body that faced repeated criticism from the administration of former U.S. President Donald Trump, which accused the WTO of a lack of fairness to the United States, and was caught in a growing economic and political rivalry between the U.S. and China. In recent years, Washington has incapacitated the WTO’s version of an appeals court that rules on international trade disputes. Read: WTO Conference: Bangladesh speaks against sudden ban on food export The WTO operates by consensus, meaning that all its 164 members must agree on its deals — or at least not get in the way. The talks at times took place in backrooms or in side chats because some delegates didn’t want to be in the same space as their counterparts from Russia — as a way to protest President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, which has had fallout far beyond the battlefield, such as on food and fuel prices. Among the main achievements Friday was an accord, which fell short of early ambitions, to prohibit both support for illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing and for fishing in overtaxed stocks in the world’s oceans. It marked the WTO’s first significant deal since one in 2013 that cut red tape on treatment of goods crossing borders — and arguably one of its most impactful. “WTO members have for the first time, concluded an agreement with environmental sustainability at its heart,” Okonjo-Iweala said. “This is also about the livelihoods of the 260 million people who depend directly or indirectly on marine fisheries.” The WTO chief said the deal takes a first step to curb government subsidies and overcapacity — too many operators — in the fishing industry. More controversial was an agreement on a watered-down plan to waive intellectual property protections for COVID-19 vaccines, which ran afoul of advocacy groups that say it did not go far enough — and could even do more harm than good. “The TRIPS waiver compromise will contribute to ongoing efforts to concentrate and diversify vaccine manufacturing capacity so that a crisis in one region does not leave others cut off,” Okonjo-Iweala said of the waiver of intellectual property protections. Read: WTO holds big meeting to tackle vaccines, food shortages U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai hailed a “concrete and meaningful outcome to get more safe and effective vaccines to those who need it most.” “This agreement shows that we can work together to make the WTO more relevant to the needs of regular people,” she said in a statement. Her announcement a year ago that the U.S. would break with many other developed countries with strong pharmaceutical industries to work toward a waiver of WTO rules on COVID-19 vaccines served as an impetus to talks around a broader waiver sought by India and South Africa. But some advocacy groups were seething. Aid group Doctors Without Borders called it a “devastating global failure for people’s health worldwide” that the agreement stopped short of including other tools to fight COVID-19, including treatments and tests. “The conduct of rich countries at the WTO has been utterly shameful,” said Max Lawson, co-chair of the People’s Vaccine Alliance and head of inequality policy at Oxfam. He said the European Union, United States, Britain and Switzerland blocked a stronger text. “This so-called compromise largely reiterates developing countries’ existing rights to override patents in certain circumstances,” Lawson said. Big pharmaceutical companies weren’t happy that the vaccine waiver was approved, arguing that it sends a negative message to researchers and innovators who developed COVID-19 vaccines with blistering speed. “The decision is a disservice to the scientists that left no stone unturned and undermines manufacturing partnerships on every continent,” said Thomas Cueni, director-general of the International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers and Associations. Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal, whose tough negotiating stance had frustrated some developed countries during the talks, said the ministerial meeting was a “big boost for multilateralism” and showed progress on issues — like fisheries — that have been lagging for decades. “India is 100% satisfied with the outcome,” he told reporters in Geneva. “I am not returning to India with any worries.” The meeting also agreed to lift export restrictions that have weighed on the U.N.’s World Food Program, which is trying to offset the impact of rising food prices and fallout from the war in Ukraine on shipments of wheat, barely and other food staples from the country that is a key producer.

Commerce Minister Tipu Munshi has urged the WTO to impose an embargo so the exporting countries can’t abruptly stop export of food grains without prior notice to the importers. The minister placed Bangladesh’s position on the first day of the ministerial-level conference of the World Trade Organization (WTO), highest policy-making forum in global trade, held at WTO headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland. Tipu said, “The current situation shows a global food shortage, the food issue has become very important for human survival. It would not be right to suddenly impose an export ban on essential food items.” Also read: Reliable accreditation infrastructure crucial for strengthening export The importing countries must be alerted so they can take preparation and alternative steps, he said. The commerce minister said that to minimize risk of food security, LDC countries need to have the opportunity to stockpile food on a large scale at the government level. Bangladesh will support WTO reforms especially in the agriculture sector. Reforms must be inclusive and transparent, where the concerns of each member must be taken into account, he said. Also read: Barind region's mangoes to be marketed globally for export Speaking at a press conference on the first day of the MC-12 summit, WTO Director General Engoji Okonzo Aiwala said the Russia-Ukraine war has made the food crisis a major challenge for the world. Following the passage of the LDCs, member states have been urged to come to a consensus on other important issues, including the continuation of trade benefits and sudden ban of food grain exports. Tipu is leading the Bangladesh delegation to the 164-nation WTO meeting. Read WTO holds big meeting to tackle vaccines, food shortages

The World Trade Organization is facing one of its most dire moments, the culmination of years of slide toward oblivion and ineffectiveness. Now may be a chance to turn the tide and reemerge as a champion of free and fair trade — or face a future further in doubt. For the first time in 4 1/2 years, after a pandemic pause, government ministers from WTO countries will gather for four days starting Sunday to tackle issues like overfishing of the seas, COVID-19 vaccines for the developing world and food security at a time when Russia’s war in Ukraine has blocked the export of millions of tons of Ukrainian grain to developing nations. Facing a key test of her diplomatic skill since taking the job 15 months ago, WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala in recent days expressed “cautious optimism” that progress could be made on at least one of four issues expected to dominate the meeting: fisheries subsidies, agriculture, the pandemic response and reform of the organization, spokesman Fernando Puchol said. Diplomats and trade teams have been working “flat out — long, long hours” to serve up at least one “clean text” for a possible agreement — that ministers can simply rubber-stamp and not have to negotiate — on one of those issues, Puchol told reporters Friday. Also Read: Global trade in medical goods up 16.3% in 2020: WTO The Geneva-based body, barely a quarter-century old, brings together 164 countries to help ensure smooth and fair international trade and settle trade disputes. Some outside experts expect few accomplishments out of the meeting, saying the main one may simply be getting the ministers to the table. “The multilateral trading system is in a bad way. The Ukraine situation is not helping,” said Clemens Boonekamp, an independent trade policy analyst and former head of WTO’s agricultural division. “But the mere fact that they are coming together is a sign of a respect for the system.” Alan Wolff, a former WTO deputy director-general, sounded optimistic that members could make at least some headway. They might reach an agreement, he said, to help relieve a looming global food crisis arising from the war in Ukraine by ensuring the U.N. World Food Program receives a waiver from food export bans imposed by WTO countries eager to feed their own people. Wolff, now senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, expressed confidence in Okonjo-Iweala, saying, “I’m not willing to sell her short.” He said members “seem to be making progress” on an agreement to scale back subsidies that encourage overfishing — something they have been trying to do for more than two decades. “Do they wrap it up this time?” Wolff asked. “Unclear. It’s been a drama.’’ One problem — among many — is that the WTO operates by consensus, so any one of its 164 member countries could gum up the works. In short, the WTO has become an important diplomatic battleground between developed and developing countries, and some experts say reform is needed if it’s ever to get things done. The trade body, created in 1995 as a successor to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, has seen a slow unraveling. It hasn’t produced a major trade deal in years. The last big success was a 2014 agreement billed as a boost to lower-income countries that cut up red tape on goods clearing borders. Years ago, the United States started clamping down on the WTO’s appeals court, which in theory delivers the last word on trade disputes, such as a high-profile one between the U.S. and EU involving plane-making giants Airbus and Boeing. Then, U.S. President Donald Trump came along, threatening to pull America out of the WTO over his insistence that it was unfair to the U.S. In the end, he didn’t, and simply bypassed the WTO — slapping sanctions on allies and foes alike and ignoring the trade organization’s rulebook and dispute-resolution system. Once a champion of the WTO, the United States has rued the admission of China and insists Beijing has been violating the trade body’s rules too much. The U.S. accuses China of excessively supporting state-run companies and impeding free trade, among other things. China denies those allegations. A generation ago, the WTO drew huge, vituperative, even violent protests — notably from anti-globalists and anarchists who detested its closed-door secrecy and elites-decide-all image. William Reinsch, a former U.S. trade official, warned that the WTO is now in danger of becoming irrelevant. The best way to show that it still matters, he wrote this month, is to negotiate an agreement, perhaps on fisheries, COVID-19 vaccines or a more difficult issue: encouraging more free trade in farming. Reinsch, now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said the United States needs to be doing more — including making compromises — to ensure the WTO can reach agreement on contentious issues. “The future of the WTO is at risk,” he said. “Failure would be bad for the fish and the farmers, but it would also be bad for a rule-of-law-based global economy.” END/AP/UNB

While Bangladesh is graduating from LDC, the first and foremost priority for Bangladesh in the upcoming the 12th Ministerial Conference of the WTO should be on the extension of the transition period for 12 years, said BGMEA  president Faruque Hassan. “The LDC group has made a submission to the WTO for extending the timeline for 12 years. A consensus on this proposal will not only help us to sustain the growth momentum but also crucial to build internal capacity,” he said. Read:BGMEA for branding 'Made in Bangladesh' He made the remarks while speaking at a webinar on “Upcoming MC 12: Bangladesh’s Expectations and Possible Stance” organized by the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) on Thursday. CPD Chairman Professor Rehman Sobhan presided over the session while Syed Manzur Elahi, Treasurer of the CPD Board of Trustees, Md. Hafizur Rahman, Director General, WTO Cell, Ministry of Commerce, Dr. Nazneen Ahmed, Country Economist, UNDP, Dr Mostafa Abid Khan, former Member, Bangladesh Trade and Tariff Commission, and Dr. Khondaker Golam Moazzem, Research Director, CPD attended as panelists. Professor Mustafizur Rahman, Distinguished Fellow, CPD was the keynote speaker. In his speech Faruque Hassan said trade competitiveness is going to be crucial in the upcoming days, especially for the graduating LDCs like Bangladesh. “We have to make use of support programs like UNCDF, LDCF, UN technology bank for LDCs etc. We need to make most use of these options.” Read: BGMEA, Jetro want to expand Japan-Bangladesh trade Laying emphasis on Free Trade Agreement (FTA) he said, “While we keep engaging through multilateral trade system, given the rise in regional and bilateral FTAs, it will be very difficult for Bangladesh to cope up with competitors if we cannot make our ways through to that direction.” Along with exploring potential and emerging markets, in the upcoming days, Bangladesh will have to focus on intra-regional trade block, he added. The BGMEA President also stressed the need for capacity building for trade negotiation. “We have to work on our internal capacity building as far as trade negotiation and economic diplomacy is concerned.”

The World Trade Organization (WTO) should continue drugs patent waiver for Bangladesh as the country graduates from the club of least developed countries (LDC) in 2024. As an LDC, Bangladesh is enjoying exemption from the patent rights and conditions set by the WTO Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS). Read: WTO to start Covid-19 vaccine supply negotiations amid clash on patents After 2024, the country will need to comply with TRIPS. However, the extension of the TRIPS waiver for Bangladesh will directly benefit developed countries along with other LDCs and developing countries as they will be able to import low-cost medicines from here.  Experts said this at the "Emerging Issues in Access to Treatment for Covid-19 in Bangladesh" jointly organised by Equity BD, People's Health Movement Bangladesh and the Third World Network.   Read: More support easing vaccine patent rules, but hurdles remain KM Gopakumar, senior researcher and legal advisor at the Third World Network, said: "People in developing countries and LDCs need access to vaccines and other health products to survive the pandemic, which requires widespread availability of these health products." "TRIPS waiver offers the policy space to do away with the IP monopoly and facilitate the scaling up or production through diversification of the manufacturing base. Also, there is an urgent need to negotiate a smooth transition period for graduating LDCs to address concerns on matters affecting peoples' health," he added.