US presidential election
The most consequential election in US history
Outside the major international sporting events, i.e. the Olympics and the football World Cup, the US presidential election may well lay claim to being the greatest show on Earth. Every four years, it captures the world’s attention (sometimes even its imagination) unlike any other electoral race, and due to the particulars of the election schedule, we can now see it more or less dominate the news agenda for the entire year in which the election is held.
When the race is as close as the one this year between Donald Trump, representing the Republican party on the ticket for the third time in a row, and vice president Kamala Harris, representing the Democrats, it makes for an even more engrossing contest. Harris and Trump spent the closing stretch of the race crisscrossing the country - the ‘battleground states’ this time are spread across the vast landscape - to rally voters in the states that matter most. They tried to stay focused on a clear and concise closing message - although the Republican let slip on a few occasions in a manner that would’ve counted for major gaffes in any other politician’s CV. With him, there is no telling though.
As usual, each side has invested massively to drive up turnout in the final early voting period, coinciding with the campaign's finish line. And in this critical phase, the flow of misinformation intensified
By general consensus, he results on Election Day will come down to seven ‘battleground states’: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have visited them the most. Together, these states are likely to deliver the Electoral College votes needed for the winning candidate to get a majority of 270. But they are proving impossible to predict, with the candidates running almost neck-and-neck in all of them.
Nate Silver, the polling guru, writing in the New York Times over the weekend, asserts that in an election where the seven battleground states are all polling within a percentage point or two, “50-50 is the only responsible forecast”.
With the US handling of the Israel-Hamas war and conflict in the Middle East looming over the White House race this time, many American Muslim voters — most of whom backed President Joe Biden four years ago — have been wrestling with voting decisions. After US support for Israel left many of them feeling outraged and ignored, some are turning their backs on the Democrats. For voters in swing states like Georgia, which Biden won in 2020 by fewer than 12,000 votes, the weight of such decisions can be amplified.
Read: How AP has declared US election results since 1864
In 2020, among Muslim voters nationally, about two-thirds supported Biden and about one-third supported Trump, according to AP VoteCast. That Biden support has left many feeling betrayed or even guilty.
The reasons behind what is essentially a choice for the American electorate becoming a global hot button issue every four years, with stakeholders seemingly spread in every corner of the world, are many-faceted. What is common among them all is that they each derive from the US hegemony that still prevails in the world today.
That means as the world’s most powerful nation, which is only one component of its hegemony, America is uniquely placed to involve itself in global hotspots, and frequently does so. As the world’s richest nation, or at least its biggest economy, the number of people looking in its direction for reasons of trade alone far outnumber any other nation. The occupant of the White House is often described as ‘the leader of the free world’, positioning itself as the world’s leading democracy, as well as its leading defender of democracies. Last but by no means least, the cultural hegemony or ‘soft power’ that America established over the course of the 20th century means that events in the American cultural or political calendar attract global interest, and this election is no different.
This time, Trump is looking to overcome another historic candidate, after Hillary Clinton in 2016. As the daughter of a Jamaican father and an Indian mother, both highly respected academics in the liberal bastion of Berkeley, Kamala Harris represents an even more historic candidacy than Clinton. Seeking to become the first woman (among other things) to be elected president in US history, her great strength may lie in women, who are expected to outnumber men at the polling booths, buoyed by a number of issues deemed endangered under Trump, including reproductive rights.
Read more: ChatGPT being used to influence US elections, alleges OpenAI
As the hours trickle down to the closing of the first polls on Election Day in America, all eyes were on Pennsylvania - a traditionally Democrat stronghold that Trump memorably flipped in 2016, but lost in 2020 in his loss to Biden. This time again, the Keystone State’s votes in the electoral college may prove decisive in deciding his fortunes. And the fortunes of the world’s premier democracy, that in this intervening period has been caught up in a culture war between new, emerging, diverse forces, and an old vanguard not quite willing to let go. It’s all on the line, in what some are calling ‘the most consequential presidential election in history.’ May the best candidate win.
Enayetullah Khan is Editor-in-Chief of UNB and Dhaka Courier.
1 month ago
High stakes in the closest US presidential election in living memory
Outside the major international sporting events, i.e. the Olympics and the football World Cup, the US presidential election may well lay claim to being the greatest show on Earth.
Every four years, it captures the world’s attention (sometimes even its imagination, although that is becoming increasingly rare) unlike any other electoral race, and due to the particulars of the election calendar, we can now see it more or less dominate the news agenda for the entire year in which the election is held.
When the race is as close as the one this year between Donald Trump, representing the Republican party on the ticket for the third time in a row, and vice president Kamala Harris, representing the Democrats, it makes for an even more engrossing contest.
Harris and Trump are crisscrossing the country to rally voters in the states that matter most. They’re trying — with varying degrees of success — to stay focused on a clear and concise closing message. At the same time, each side is investing massive resources to drive up turnout for the final early voting period. And in these critical days, the flow of misinformation is intensifying.
This time, the results on Election Day will come down to seven ‘battleground states’: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have visited them the most.
Together, these states are likely to deliver the Electoral College votes needed for the winning candidate to get a majority of 270. Nate Silver, the polling guru, writing in the New York Times, said that in an election where the seven battleground states are all polling within a percentage point or two, “50-50 is the only responsible forecast”.
That is how close it is this time. With the US handling of the Israel-Hamas war and conflict in the Middle East looming over the White House race this time, many American Muslim voters — most of whom backed President Joe Biden four years ago — have been wrestling with who to cast their vote for this time.
Read: When polls close in battleground states on Election Day
After US support for Israel left many of them feeling outraged and ignored, some seek a rebuff of the Democrats, including by favouring third-party options for president. Others grapple with how to express their anger through the ballot box amid warnings by some against another Trump presidency. For voters in swing states like Georgia, which Biden won in 2020 by fewer than 12,000 votes, the weight of such decisions can be amplified.
In 2020, among Muslim voters nationally, about two-thirds supported Biden and about one-third supported Trump, according to AP VoteCast. That Biden support has left many feeling betrayed or even guilty.
The reasons behind what is essentially a choice for the American electorate becoming a global hot button issue every four years, with stakeholders seemingly spread in every corner of the world, are many-faceted. What is common among them all is that they each derive from the US hegemony that still prevails in the world today.
That means as the world’s most powerful nation, which is only one component of its hegemony, America is uniquely placed to involve itself in global hotspots, and frequently does so. As the world’s richest nation, or at least its biggest economy, the number of people looking in its direction for reasons of trade alone far outnumber any other nation.
The occupant of the White House is often described as ‘the leader of the free world’, positioning itself as the world’s leading democracy, as well as its leading defender of democracies. This of course has also extended, controversially, to propagating democracy in other parts of the world, even at the barrel of a gun, with the overall record being mixed at best. Last but by no means least, the cultural hegemony or ‘soft power’ that America established over the course of the 20th century means that events in the American cultural or political calendar attract global interest.
Having said that, what is also not deniable is that the gap between America and the rest of the world has been closing, with a new, multipolar order set to emerge on the horizon. US hegemony persisted through the bipolar era that emerged in the aftermath of World War II, and lasted till the disintegration of the Soviet Union. The unipolar era that followed has completely flipped the script in its manifestation, heralding a world of democratic backsliding, and capitalism beset by crises. Accordingly, despite its leading position, US power and influence around the world today are in relative decline.
Read more: Harris and Trump focus on Sunbelt states during final weekend push for votes
Throughout 2023, and in fact going back further, we saw the Biden administration deploy all the levers at its disposal, to impress upon the now deposed Awami League government that it needed to deliver a free-and-fair election, and by doing so return the country to the path of democracy. But in a sign of America’s relatively diminished stature, the government here was able to successfully resist these attempts and hold another farcical vote on January 7.
One of the most salient features of the interim government in Dhaka is the almost unanimous show of support it has received from Western governments, particularly Washington. Yet a nagging concern among Bangladeshis has been whether a changeover in Washington may occasion a change in their Bangladesh policy as well.
A tweet by Trump on Thursday, incorporating Indian talking points about the situation here, probably serves as the strongest indication yet, that such an expectation is not at all unfounded. But in choosing how to react to it, the IG will do well to also remember the limits on American power in this day and age. And instead of wedding itself to the result one way or another, the IG must forge ahead with its resolve undiminished.
1 month ago
Schumer urges Cabinet to oust Trump
Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer is calling on President Donald Trump’s Cabinet to remove him from office following Wednesday’s violent assault on the Capitol by the president’s supporters.
3 years ago
Facebook bans Trump through Biden inauguration, maybe longer
After years of treating President Donald Trump’s inflammatory rhetoric with a light touch, Facebook and Instagram are silencing his social media accounts for the rest of his presidency. The move, which many called justified following Wednesday’s insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, is also a somber reminder of the enormous power that social-media platforms can exercise when they choose.
3 years ago
Major global developments in a year of Covid-19
In a year dominated by Covid-19, many other developments including China’s crackdown on Hong Kong’s democracy, an apocalyptic explosion in Beirut, and a tumultuous US presidential election unfolded.
4 years ago
Why AP called Georgia for Biden
More than two weeks after Election Day, The Associated Press has declared Joe Biden the winner of the presidential contest in Georgia, a longtime Republican state that the Democratic president-elect narrowly won by making major inroads in suburban areas that formerly favored the GOP.
4 years ago
Joe Biden wins Georgia
Joe Biden has won Georgia and its 16 electoral votes, an extraordinary victory for Democrats who pushed to expand their electoral map through the Sun Belt.
4 years ago
After tweeting Biden 'won', Trump insists he is not conceding
Having seemed to finally admit the reality of his loss in the election held on November 3, US President Donald Trump promptly went back on it on Twitter Sunday morning (US time), repeating his claims that the election was rigged against him and doubling down on not conceding.
4 years ago
Nov 3 election most secure in US history: Officials
A coalition of federal and state officials said Thursday that they have no evidence that votes were compromised or altered in last week’s presidential election, rejecting unsubstantiated claims of widespread fraud advanced by President Donald Trump and many of his supporters.
4 years ago
What’s ahead for COVID-19 vaccines?
Pfizer’s surprising news that its COVID-19 vaccine might offer more protection than anticipated — an announcement right after a fraught US presidential election campaign — is raising questions about exactly how the different shots will make it to market.
Pfizer Inc and the maker of the other leading US vaccine candidate, Moderna Inc, have been cautioning for weeks that the earliest they could seek regulatory approval for wider use of their shots would be late November. In Britain, AstraZeneca recently said it hoped to prove its own vaccine was effective by year’s end.
Late on Monday in a series of tweets President Donald Trump accused the US Food and Drug Administration and Pfizer of waiting until after the election to announce its positive vaccine news for political reasons. Pfizer did not receive data from independent trial monitors until Sunday, however. The FDA was not involved in Pfizer’s decision to announce its early results and made no announcements of its own.
The hard truth: Science moves at its own pace. While COVID-19 vaccines are being developed at record speeds in hope of ending the pandemic, when they’re ready for prime time depends on a long list of research steps including how many study volunteers wind up getting the coronavirus — something scientists cannot control.
Here’s a look at the process:
How the study works
Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech have enrolled nearly 44,000 people in final testing of their vaccine. Neither participants, their doctors nor Pfizer know who gets the real vaccine and who gets a dummy shot. They get a second dose about three weeks after the first.
And then another week after the second dose, key tracking begins: Counting anyone who experiences COVID-19 symptoms and tests positive for the virus as participants go about their daily routines, especially in hot spots.
Late-stage testing of other vaccine candidates is similar, varying slightly in the number of volunteers and timing.
How to tell shots work
Every vaccine study is overseen by an independent “data and safety monitoring board,” or DSMB. These boards include scientists and statisticians who have no ties to the vaccine makers.
Before a study is complete, only the DSMB has the power to unlock the code of who got the real vaccine and who got placebo, and to recommend if the shots are working well enough to stop testing early.
Those boards take sneak peeks at pre-determined times agreed to by the manufacturer and the Food and Drug Administration. The first interim analysis for Pfizer came Sunday. The company reported its data monitors had counted 94 infections so far -- and that among those initial cases, the vaccine appeared 90 percent effective.
But the study isn’t stopping: To be sure of protection, it’s set to run until there are 164 infections. The more COVID-19 cases occur in the trial, the better idea scientists will have of just how protective the shots really are.
4 years ago