North Korea's latest missile launches are a demonstration of the country's avowed ability to use nuclear force against South Korea and the mainland U.S. How immediate is that threat? North Korea claims its nuclear forces are capable of destroying its rivals, and often follows its provocative weapons tests with launch details. But many foreign experts call the North’s claims propaganda and suggest that the country is not yet capable of hitting the United States or its allies with a nuclear weapon. There’s no question that North Korea has nuclear bombs, and that it has missiles that place the U.S. mainland, South Korea and Japan within striking distance. What’s not yet clear is whether the country has mastered the tricky engineering required to join the bombs and the missiles. ___ ICBMs North Korea has demonstrated that it has missiles that could fly far enough to reach deep into the continental U.S., but it's not clear whether they can survive reentering the Earth's atmosphere on arrival. North Korea said it launched a Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile on Saturday to verify the weapon’s reliability and the combat readiness of the country’s nuclear forces. It’s one of three kinds of ICBMs the country has developed, along with the Hwasong-14 and Hwasong-17. All three are liquid-fueled, and North Korea has portrayed them all as nuclear-capable. Launched almost straight up to avoid the territories of neighbors, the weapon reached a maximum altitude of about 5,770 kilometers (3,585 miles) and flew 990 kilometers (615 miles), according to North Korean state media. The reported flight details suggest the missile could travel 13,000 kilometers (8,080 miles) or beyond if launched on a normal trajectory. “These days, North Korea has been disclosing information about its launches in a very detailed manner to try to let others believe what they’ve done is genuine,” analyst Shin Jong-woo at South Korea’s Defense and Security Forum said. “But I think that’s part of their propaganda.” There are questions on whether North Korea has acquired the technology to shield warheads from the high-temperature, high-stress environment of atmospheric reentry. A South Korean biennial defense document released last week said it’s not clear whether the missiles can survive reentry, because all of North Korea’s ICBM tests have so far been made on high angles. Read more: US urges UN to condemn North Korea; China, Russia blame US Lee Choon Geun, an honorary research fellow at South Korea’s Science and Technology Policy Institute, said a normal trajectory would cause greater stress, as a warhead would spend a longer time passing through altitudes with high air density. North Korean state media said the launch was made “suddenly” after a surprise order from leader Kim Jong Un. “The Kim regime’s claims of short-notice launches are thus intended to demonstrate not only the development of strategic and tactical nuclear forces but also the operational capability to use them,” Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said. In a military parade earlier this month, North Korea showcased around a dozen ICBMs, an unprecedented number that suggested progress in its efforts to mass-produce powerful weapons. Among them were huge canister-sealed missiles that experts say were likely a version of a solid-fuel ICBM that North Korea has been trying to develop in recent years. Solid-fueled systems allow missiles to be mobile on the ground and make them faster to launch. ___ WARHEADS North Korea likely has dozens of nuclear warheads. The question is whether they are small enough to fit on a missile. North Korea has so far performed six underground nuclear test explosions to manufacture warheads that it can place on missiles. Outside estimates of the number of North Korean nuclear warheads vary widely, ranging from 20-60 to up to about 115. In a 2021 interview with 38 North, a North Korea-focused website, renowned nuclear physicist Siegfried Hecker, who has visited North Korea’s main Yongbyon nuclear complex numerous times, said that “20 to 60 is possible, with the most likely number being 45.” Some experts argue that North Korea has likely already built miniaturized nuclear warheads to be mounted on missiles, citing the number of years the country has spent on its nuclear and missile programs. But others say North Korea is still years away from producing such warheads. “After its sixth nuclear test, people accepted that North Korea really will have nuclear weapons. But they are still debating whether it has warhead miniaturization technology,” Shin, the analyst, said. The North described its sixth nuclear test in 2017 as a detonation of a thermonuclear bomb built for ICBMs. It created a tremor that measured magnitude 6.3, and some studies put its estimated explosive yield at about 50 to 140 kilotons of TNT. In comparison, the pair of atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II — which killed a total of more than 210,000 people — yielded explosions equivalent to about 15 and 20 kilotons of TNT, respectively. The biennial South Korean defense document said North Korea is estimated to have 70 kilograms (154 pounds) of weapons-grade plutonium. Some observers say that's enough for about 9-18 bombs. The document estimated that North Korea has “a considerable amount of” highly enriched uranium as well. North Korea’s Yongbyon complex has facilities to produce both plutonium and highly enriched uranium, the two main ingredients to build nuclear weapons. Plutonium plants are generally large and generate a lot of heat, making them easier to detect. But a uranium enrichment plant is more compact and can be easily hidden from satellite cameras. North Korea is believed to be running at least one additional covert uranium enrichment facility, in addition to one at its Yongbyon complex. ___ SHORT-RANGE WEAPONS Following the collapse of diplomacy with then-U.S. President Donald Trump in 2019, Kim sped up the development of short-range solid-fuel, nuclear-capable missiles designed to strike key targets in South Korea, including U.S. military bases there. The so-called “tactical” nuclear weapons include what North Korea calls “super-large” 600-millimeter multiple rocket launchers that it tested Monday. South Korea describes the weapon as a short-range missile system. North Korean state media said its new artillery system can carry nuclear warheads, and that four rockets would be enough to wipe out an enemy airfield. The statement drew quick outside doubts about whether the weapons are indeed nuclear-capable. “The North Korean claim doesn’t make sense to some extent. ... Why do they need four tactical nuclear weapons to destroy just one airfield?” Shin, the analyst, said. “Also, which country would disclose such attack scenarios via state media?” Other new North Korean short-range systems include missiles that were apparently modeled after the Russian Iskander mobile ballistic system or outwardly resemble the U.S. MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System. Launched from land vehicles, these missiles are designed to be maneuverable and fly at low altitudes, theoretically giving them a better chance of defeating South Korean and U.S. missile defense systems. Whether North Korea has an ability to arm short-range missiles with nuclear warheads has not been independently confirmed. While North Korea may be able to place simple nuclear warheads on some of its older missiles, including Scuds or Rodong missiles, it would likely require further technology advancements and nuclear tests to build smaller and more advanced warheads that can be installed on its newer tactical systems, said Lee, the expert. North Korea also has an intermediate-range, nuclear-capable Hwasong-12 missile capable of reaching Guam, a major U.S. military hub in the Pacific. It has been developing a family of mid-range, solid-fuel Pukguksong missiles which are designed to be fired from submarines or land vehicles.

Russia’s war on Ukraine has most Americans at least somewhat worried that the U.S. will be drawn directly into the conflict and could be targeted with nuclear weapons, with a new poll reflecting a level of anxiety that has echoes of the Cold War era. Close to half of Americans say they are very concerned that Russia would directly target the U.S. with nuclear weapons, and an additional 3 in 10 are somewhat concerned about that, according to the new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. Russian President Vladimir Putin placed his country’s nuclear forces on high alert shortly after the Feb. 24 invasion. Roughly 9 in 10 Americans are at least somewhat concerned that Putin might use a nuclear weapon against Ukraine, including about 6 in 10 who are very concerned. “He is out of control, and I don’t think he really has concern for much of anything but what he wants,” said Robin Thompson, a retired researcher from Amherst, Massachusetts. “And he has nuclear weapons.” Seventy-one percent of Americans say the invasion has increased the possibility of nuclear weapons being used anywhere in the world. Read: Ukraine pleads for help, says Russia wants to split nation The poll was conducted before North Korea test-fired its biggest intercontinental ballistic missile on Friday but also shows 51% of Americans saying they are very concerned about the threat to the U.S. posed by North Korea’s nuclear program. An additional 29% expressed moderate concern. Fear of nuclear war has been a fact of life for decades. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has published its “Doomsday Clock” since 1947, showing a theoretical countdown to nuclear annihilation. The latest update, in January, put the time at 100 seconds to midnight — unchanged since 2020, but still closer than ever to Armageddon. It’s difficult to measure the public’s degree of fear over time because polls use different methodologies or pose questions in different ways. Alex Wellerstein, a nuclear historian at the Stevens Institute of Technology in New Jersey, said people often won’t bring it up on their own but list it among concerns if given the choice. The fear, naturally enough, also tends to rise and fall depending on what is happening around the world. “We have these moments that are sort of high crisis periods,” Wellerstein said. “And then they come and go, and people forget that we had them.” One particularly high point, he said, was in 1983, a time of tension between the U.S. and the Soviet Union and the year that a highly watched movie about nuclear war, “The Day After,” first aired on TV in the United States.

President Vladimir Putin ordered Russian nuclear deterrent forces put on high alert Sunday amid tensions with the West over his invasion of Ukraine. Speaking at a meeting with his top officials, Putin asserted that leading NATO powers had made “aggressive statements” along with the West imposing hard-hitting financial sanctions against Russia, including the president himself. The alert means Putin has ordered Russia's nuclear weapons prepared for increased readiness to launch. He told the Russian defense minister and the chief of the military’s General Staff to put the nuclear deterrent forces in a “special regime of combat duty.” Also read: Sanctions vs. neutrality: Swiss fine-tune response to Russia “Western countries aren’t only taking unfriendly actions against our country in the economic sphere, but top officials from leading NATO members made aggressive statements regarding our country," Putin said in televised comments. His order raised the threat that the tensions with the West over the invasion in Ukraine could lead to the use of nuclear weapons. The Russian leader this week threatened to retaliate harshly against any nations that intervened directly in the conflict in Ukraine. Also read: Russia hits Ukraine fuel supplies, airfields in new attacks

On a warm spring day in Ukraine 26 years ago, three men smiled for cameras as they planted symbolic sunflower seedlings in freshly tilled earth where Soviet nuclear missiles had once stood ready. That placid scene was, briefly, a launchpad for hope that the demise of the Soviet Union would bury the threat of great power war and mark the start of lasting peace in an undivided Europe. Today Ukraine is ground zero for worry that Russia will ignite a conflict that could engulf the region. On that early-June day in 1996, the American secretary of defense, William J. Perry, joined his Russian and Ukrainian counterparts in ceremonies marking the completion of Ukraine’s nuclear disarmament. Under Western pressure, Ukraine had agreed to give up the weapons it inherited with the breakup of the Soviet empire in exchange for a Russian and Western security guarantee. Perry likened the moment to the parting of a dark cloud of Cold War fear. READ: US and Russia try to lower temperature in Ukraine crisis “It is altogether fitting that we plant sunflowers here at Pervomaysk to symbolize the hope we all feel at seeing the sun shine through again,” he said, standing on a small concrete pad in the former missile field, where SS-19 nuclear missiles once stood in underground silos, prepared to launch toward targets in the United States. Nearby, American, Russian and Ukrainian national flags waved in a warm breeze. That hopeful moment when American, Russian and Ukrainian officials grabbed white-handled spades to plant sunflowers has given way to today’s fears of renewed conflict and a new cold war. Today, Russian President Vladimir Putin stands accused by the West of violating that deal by targeting Ukraine with 100,000-plus troops. Now it is Russia that wants a security guarantee from the West as well as legal guarantees that Ukraine never be permitted to join the NATO alliance, even as Moscow readies for a potential invasion of a neighbor with inferior military might and none of the 170-plus nuclear-tipped missiles it once held. Moscow wants a stop to NATO's eastward expansion, which it asserts Washington promised in the early aftermath of the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 in the context of the reunification of Germany. The U.S. and its NATO allies deny any such promise was given. The opportunity for countries to join NATO is enshrined in Article 10 of the organization's founding treaty, and this “open door” policy was reaffirmed in 2008 when alliance leaders agreed that Ukraine and Georgia “will become members of NATO” but set no timeline and offered them no formal path to membership. Ukraine remains without a NATO invitation, and none is likely for the foreseeable future. Ukraine gave up its inherited nuclear weapons — an estimated 1,900 warheads that at the time constituted the third-largest nuclear arsenal in the world — after getting the security assurance it wanted. It is known as the Budapest Memorandum, named for the Hungarian capital in which it was signed in 1994 by the United States, Britain and Russia. Its words seem to defy the reality of today's Ukraine crisis. The three signatory nations pledged to “respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine." They promised to “refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self defense or otherwise in accordance with the charter of the United Nations.” Thus began a long road to today's crisis in which Ukraine's future may be in doubt. It already has lost control of the eastern Donbas region bordering Russia, following a Russian intervention in 2014 in support of separatists. That same year, Russia seized and annexed Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula. After those Russian moves, the United States and NATO distanced themselves from Russia, and Washington has provided substantial — but still limited — military assistance to Kyiv. Ukraine continues to seek closer ties to the West, including membership in the NATO alliance, which Putin sees as a threat to Russia for having expanded eastward toward its borders multiple times since 1999. President Joe Biden says the United States stands with Ukraine. But he also notes that since Ukraine is not in NATO, it has no guarantee of U.S. military backing. Biden also has noted the historic significance of a nuclear-armed Russia potentially invading a neighbor that swore off nuclear weapons. READ: Russia announces sweeping naval drills amid Ukraine tensions “This will be the most consequential thing that’s happened in the world, in terms of war and peace, since World War II,” he said. Among the U.S. officials at Pervomaysk for the sunflower planting in 1996 was Ashton Carter, who years later would become secretary of defense. In a memoir, Carter recalled Ukraine's decision to disarm, which he saw as marking the true end of the Cold War that divided Europe for nearly half a century. He said it showed that even insecure nations can give up the awesome destructive power of nuclear weapons — “placing their trust instead in a world order dedicated to peace and a powerful America dedicated to international partnerships.” At the time, Perry spoke of prospects for “a permanent season of peace.” But looking back, he concluded that the spirit of goodwill was all too short-lived. “I am saddened to realize," he wrote in 2015, “that such a scene and such cooperation are unthinkable today.”

Iran launched a rocket with a satellite carrier bearing three devices into space, authorities announced Thursday, without saying whether any of the objects had entered Earth's orbit. It was not clear when the launch happened or what devices the carrier brought with it. Iran aired footage of the blastoff against the backdrop of negotiations in Vienna to restore Tehran’s tattered nuclear deal with world powers. An eighth round had been underway this week and is to resume after New Year’s holidays. Previous launches have drawn rebukes from the United States. The U.S. military did not respond to requests for comment on Thursday's announcement from Iran. The State Department, however, said it remains concerned by Iran's space launches, which it asserts “pose a significant proliferation concern" in regards to Tehran's ballistic missile program. READ: Iran nuclear talks adjourn, seen resuming before year's end Ahmad Hosseini, a Defense Ministry spokesman, identified the rocket as a Simorgh, or “Phoenix,” rocket that sent up the three devices 470 kilometers (290 miles). “The performance of the space center and the performance of the satellite carrier was done properly,” Hosseini was quoted as saying. But hours later, Hosseini and other officials remained silent on the the status of the objects, suggesting the rocket had fallen short of placing its payload into the correct orbit. Hosseini offered a speed for the satellite carrier that state-associated journalists reporting on the event indicated wouldn't be enough to reach orbit. Iran's civilian space program has suffered a series of setbacks in recent years, including fatal fires and a launchpad rocket explosion that drew the attention of former President Donald Trump. Iranian state media recently offered a list of upcoming planned satellite launches for the Islamic Republic’s civilian space program. Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard runs its own parallel program that successfully put a satellite into orbit last year. Hosseini described the launch announced Thursday as “initial,” indicating more are on the way. Television aired footage of the white rocket emblazoned with the words, “Simorgh satellite carrier” and the slogan “We can” shooting into the morning sky from Iran’s Imam Khomeini Spaceport. A state TV reporter at a nearby desert site hailed the launch as “another achievement by Iranian scientists.” READ: Satellite images, expert suggest Iranian space launch coming The blast-offs have raised concerns in Washington about whether the technology used to launch satellites could advance Iran's ballistic missile development. The United States says that such satellite launches defy a United Nations Security Council resolution calling on Iran to steer clear of any activity related to ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons. Space launch vehicles “incorporate technologies that are virtually identical to, and interchangeable with, those used in ballistic missiles, including longer-range systems,” the State Department said late Thursday. “The United States continues to use all its nonproliferation tools to prevent the further advancement of Iran’s missile programs and urges other countries to take steps to address Iran’s missile development activity.” Iran, which long has said it does not seek nuclear weapons, maintains its satellite launches and rocket tests do not have a military component. Announcing a rocket launch as diplomats struggle to restore Tehran's atomic accord keeps with Tehran's hard-line posture under President Ebrahim Raisi, a recently elected conservative cleric. New Iranian demands in the nuclear talks have exasperated Western nations and heightened regional tensions as Tehran presses ahead with atomic advancements. Diplomats have repeatedly raised the alarm that time is running out to restore the accord, which collapsed three years ago when Trump unilaterally withdrew the U.S. from the deal. From Vienna, Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani told Iranian state TV that he hopes diplomats pursue “more serious work to lift sanctions” when nuclear talks resume next week. He described negotiations over the past week as “positive.” Washington, however, has thrown cold water on Tehran’s upbeat assessments. State Department spokesperson Ned Price told reporters earlier this week that “it’s really too soon to tell whether Iran has returned with a more constructive approach to this round.” Iran has now abandoned all limitations under the agreement, and has ramped up uranium enrichment from under 4% purity to 60% — a short, technical step from weapons-grade levels. International inspectors face challenges in monitoring Tehran's advances. Satellite images seen by The Associated Press suggested a launch was imminent earlier this month. The images showed preparations at the spaceport in the desert plains of Iran’s rural Semnan province, some 240 kilometers (150 miles) southeast of Tehran. Over the past decade, Iran has sent several short-lived satellites into orbit and in 2013 launched a monkey into space. But under Raisi, the government appears to have sharpened its focus on space. Iran’s Supreme Council of Space has met for the first time in 11 years.

Information Center on Nuclear Energy in Dhaka (ICONE) has launched a special bus journey that will travel nearly 20 districts of the country to create public interest in science and technology and raise awareness about the safety of nuclear technology and its versatile use. A specially branded passenger bus started the 5-day journey from Dhaka on Thursday, said a Rosatom press release. The Ministry of Science and Technology, Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission (BAEC) and Rosatom, the Russian contractor engaged to build the 2,400 MW Rooppur nuclear power plant, have been extending their support to make the tour a success. Also read: S Korean companies to be interested in Bangladesh’s nuclear energy sector: Envoy  Science and Technology Minister Yeafesh Osman  formally inaugurated the Nuclear Bus Tour at a simple ceremony in front of the Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) Bhaban in the city. Dr. Md. Shawkat Akbar, Project Director, Construction of Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant Project and Managing Director of Nuclear Power Plant Company Bangladesh Ltd. (NPCBL) and Alok Chakraborty, Chief Administrative Officer of BAEC were present on the occasion. During the tour, different public events will be organised at different places along the route to attract people and to ensure their active participation. Also read: Steam generators installed at Unit-1 of Rooppur NPP Different plans have been chalked out including road-side public interaction, visit of schools and universities, distribution of informative leaflets, booklets, science-based quiz competition and games among others. Most active participants and winners of the competitions will be awarded with attractive souvenirs. The Nuclear Bus will return to Dhaka on December 27. This special initiative has been taken within the framework of Russia-Bangladesh joint communication plan on nuclear energy.

The new head of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization said the treaty would place a "real limit" on the further development of new weapons by nuclear-armed states if it comes into effect and becomes legally binding. Robert Floyd, who was appointed executive secretary of the preparatory commission for the CTBTO this month, told Kyodo News in a recent interview that having the test ban enter into force would also make it "practically impossible" for any non-nuclear armed states to develop such weapons in the future. The CTBT, which prohibits countries from carrying out all types of nuclear explosive tests, has been signed by 185 states and ratified by 170 after it was adopted by the UN General Assembly in 1996. For the treaty to come into effect, it must be signed and ratified by all 44 countries that had nuclear reactors for research or power generation while the treaty was under negotiation, but eight including China and the US have yet to do so. "The CTBT as a treaty enjoys really strong support by the vast majority of states in the world," Floyd said, adding that the pact is "actually already having an effect" due to the global norm against nuclear testing. With the CTBTO providing the international monitoring system, a worldwide system that detects nuclear explosions by collecting seismic data and observing radioactive particles among other verification technologies, "nobody can test without that being detected, which gives us some benefit already," Floyd said. The Australian scientist further stressed that having "a strong ban in place on nuclear testing is a really valuable and important thing" to counter moves by nuclear weapon states, such as the US and Russia, that are seemingly moving in the opposite direction by upgrading and increasing their existing arsenals. READ: Iran calls Natanz atomic site blackout 'nuclear terrorism' As for North Korea, Floyd said efforts to denuclearise the country have been taking place by the US and other countries, and he expressed hope that it would take steps toward signing and ratifying the CTBT in the future when talks progress. "That would be a powerful signal from the North Korean leadership and could be a confidence-building measure, a gesture to move towards a solution," he said.

High-ranking diplomats from China, Germany, France, Russia and Britain made progress at talks Saturday focused on bringing the United States back into their landmark nuclear deal with Iran, but said they need more work and time to bring about a future agreement. After the meeting, Russia’s top representative, Mikhail Ulyanov, tweeted that members of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, “noted today the indisputable progress made at the Vienna talks on restoration of the nuclear deal.” “The Joint Commission will reconvene at the end of the next week,” Ulyanov wrote. “In the meantime, experts will continue to draft elements of future agreement.” The U.S. did not have a representative at the table when the diplomats met in Vienna because former President Donald Trump unilaterally pulled the country out of the deal in 2018. Trump also restored and augmented sanctions to try to force Iran into renegotiating the pact with more concessions. U.S. President Joe Biden wants to rejoin the deal, however, and a U.S. delegation in Vienna was taking part in indirect talks with Iran, with diplomats from the other world powers acting as go-betweens. The Biden administration is considering a rollback of some of the most stringent Trump-era sanctions in a bid to get Iran to come back into compliance with the nuclear agreement, according to information from current and former U.S. officials and others familiar with the matter. Ahead of the main talks, Ulyanov said JCPOA members met on the side with officials from the U.S. delegation but that the Iranian delegation was not ready to meet with U.S. diplomats. The nuclear deal promised Iran economic incentives in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program. The reimposition of U.S. sanctions has left the Islamic Republic’s economy reeling. Tehran has responded by steadily increasing its violations of the restrictions of the deal, such as increasing the purity of uranium it enriches and its stockpiles, in a thus-far unsuccessful effort to pressure the other countries to provide relief from the sanctions. The ultimate goal of the deal is to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear bomb, something it insists it doesn’t want to do. Iran now has enough enriched uranium to make a bomb, but nowhere near the amount it had before the nuclear deal was signed. The Vienna talks began in early April and have included several rounds of high-level discussions. Expert groups also have been working on how to resolve the issues around the American sanctions and Iranian compliance, as well as the “possible sequencing” of the U.S. return. Outside the talks in Vienna, other challenges remain. An attack suspected to have been carried out by Israel recently struck Iran’s Natanz nuclear site, causing an unknown amount of damage. Tehran retaliated by beginning to enrich a small amount of uranium up to 60% purity, its highest level ever.

Iran's president said Thursday that there is "no limit" to the country's enrichment of uranium following its decision to abandon its commitments under the 2015 nuclear deal in response to the killing of its top general in a U.S. airstrike.

Tehran, Oct. 6 (Xinhua/ UNB) -- The spokesman for Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), Behrooz Kamalvandi, on Sunday urged the signatories to the landmark Iranian 2015 nuclear deal to take steps to protect Iran's nuclear interests.