The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has lowered Bangladesh's growth forecast for the current fiscal, with the second wave of Covid-19 posing risks to economic recovery. The regional lender, however, anticipates a sharp economic recovery in the next financial year, notwithstanding the Covid-19 headwinds. The projections were reflected in the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2021 report released on Wednesday. In January this year, the Bangladesh government revised its gross domestic product (GDP) growth projection for the current fiscal to 7.4 percent from the earlier 8.2 percent, considering the Covid situation in the country. Also Read: IMF upgrades global growth forecast to 6 pct in 2021 However, ADB has anticipated a drop in GDP growth this fiscal due to the onslaught of the Covid-19 pandemic. “The economy was showing signs of recovery with higher remittances, exports and other indicators, but the recent surge in the pandemic and the lockdown are likely to trim our GDP growth projection of 6.8% for fiscal year 2020-2021 by at least one percentage point,” ADB's Country Director Manmohan Parkash said. He said that the government managed the first wave of Covid-19 in 2020 well as the stimulus measures and economic policies have largely been effective. Also Read: ADB to provide $5.9 bn firm, $5.2 bn standby project assistance “The ongoing pandemic is an opportunity to undertake further reforms in social protection and health sector, improving the competitiveness of the private sector, reducing the cost of doing business, diversifying exports, and developing skills,” Parkash said. “Expanding social safety nets, enhancing investments, creating employment, ensuring mass vaccination, and improving the health sector are critical actions for achieving the Eighth Five-Year Plan goals,” the ADB Country Director said. According to Parkash, future economic growth will depend on recovery in domestic economic activities fuelled mainly by the implementation of stimulus packages, the strong inflow of remittances, and rebound in global trade amid projected growth in major export destinations. Read UN forecasts 4.7% global economic growth in 2021 "Current account balance is expected to cross into a surplus of 0.7% of GDP in FY2021, contributed by remittance growth. The main risk to this growth projection is further surge of Covid-19 cases and delayed availability and supply of vaccines both globally and domestically," he added. The ADO 2021 says that continued strong remittance inflow is likely to support domestic demand with growth in private consumption. Remittances from workers overseas increased by 35.1% in the first nine months of FY2021 due to the 2% cash incentive offered by the government and reduced documentation requirements. Private investment is expected to pick up as moderate growth in private sector credit improves confidence. Higher public investment is anticipated as the government expands capital spending. Read ADB praises Hasina's leadership in Covid fight Inflation is expected to reach 5.8% in FY2021 from 5.7% in FY2020 as price pressures are increasing from higher public expenditures to implement stimulus measures and a rise in global food and fuel prices due to pick up in global economic activity, according to the report. The ADO 2021 points out that a move towards universal health care is critical to ensure inclusive and sustainable development. Health care in Bangladesh can improve with more public funding and effective administration, it says. "A contributory public social health insurance scheme can help achieve universal health care. To enhance inclusion and high enrollment, participation should be mandated for all with subsidies targeted to lower-income people. Substantial strengthening of domestic resource mobilisation will be needed to mobilise increased funding for healthcare." Read Funding for vaccine procurement earmarked in deals with WB, ADB: Dr Meerjady ADB has already provided $650 million in loans and $7.23 million in grants for managing socio-economic impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic and supporting quick recovery. The organisation is also processing two programme loans of $500 million each and a $940 million loan for the government’s Covid-19 vaccine programme.  In its 47-year-long partnership with Bangladesh, ADB has mobilised around $40 billion in loans and grants, including cofinancing, to help bring better infrastructure, public services, and social development outcomes to the people of Bangladesh. ADB’s current sovereign portfolio in Bangladesh has 49 projects with around $11 billion. ADB is committed to achieving a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacific, while sustaining its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty. Established in 1966, it is owned by 68 members -- 49 from the region. Read Post-pandemic recovery in Bangladesh: ADB to accelerate project implementation.

Bangladesh’s GDP is expected to grow by 4.5 percent in FY2020 and 7.5 percent in FY2021, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said in the update report of Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2020 Supplement on Thursday.   The growth forecast for FY2020 reflects sharp decrease in economic activities in the last quarter due to COVID-19 pandemic and its outbreak in Bangladesh, according to a press release.   Bangladesh’s economy is expected to recover in fiscal year 2021 after coronavirus induced slowdown in FY2020, according to the latest ADB report of ADO Supplement.   During FY2021, GDP growth rate is expected to pick up to 7.5 percent driven by gradual recovery in the first two quarters, followed by quick recovery in the following quarters.   These forecasts rest on the assumption that it would take three months, from when the outbreak intensifies in the country, for economies to get their domestic outbreak under control and to start normalising economic activities, it said.   These forecasts also consider the impacts of the government’s containment actions, and fiscal and monetary stimulus measures.