The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has marginally lowered its economic growth forecast for developing Asia this year amid the second wave of the pandemic. It projects a 7.2 percent economic growth for developing Asia this year compared with its 7.3 percent forecast in April, as renewed Covid outbreaks tend to slow the recovery in some economies of the region. Read: ADB praises Hasina's leadership in Covid fight However, the growth outlook for 2022 is upgraded to 5.4 percent from 5.3 percent, according to a release from the Bank. Excluding the newly industrialised economies of Hong Kong, the Republic of Korea, Singapore and Taipei,developing Asia’s updated growth outlook is 7.5 percent for 2021 and 5.7 percent for 2022, compared with the earlier projections of 7.7 percent and 5.6 percent, respectively. The supplement to ADB’s flagship economic publication, Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2021, provides updated projections for the region’s economies and inflation levels amid the pandemic. “Asia and the Pacific’s recovery from the pandemic continues, although the path remains precarious amid renewed outbreaks, new virus variants, and an uneven vaccine rollout,” said ADB Chief Economist Yasuyuki Sawada. “On top of containment and vaccination measures, phased and strategic rejuvenation of economic activities -- for instance, trade, manufacturing, and tourism--- will be key to ensure that the recovery is green, inclusive, and resilient.” The Covid pandemic remains the biggest risk to the outlook, as outbreaks continue in many economies. Read: ADB triples COVID-19 response package to $20bn Daily confirmed cases in the region peaked at about 434,000 in mid-May. They narrowed to about 109,000 at the end of June, concentrated mainly in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific. Meanwhile, the vaccine rollout in the region is gaining pace, with 41.6 doses administered per 100 people by the end of June -- above the global average of 39.2, but below rates of 97.6 in the United States and 81.8 in the European Union. East Asia’s growth outlook for 2021 is raised to 7.5 percent, from 7.4 percent in April, amid a stronger-than-expected recovery by the newly industrialised  economies of Hong Kong, the Republic of Korea and Taipei. The subregional growth forecast for 2022 is retained at 5.1 percent. The growth outlook for China is likewise maintained at 8.1 percent this year and 5.5 percent in 2022, amid steady performances by industry, exports, and services. This year’s growth outlook for Central Asia has been raised to 3.6 percent, from 3.4 percent, in the April forecast. This is mainly due to an improved outlook for Armenia, Georgia, and Kazakhstan -- the subregion’s largest economy. Central Asia’s outlook for 2022 remains at 4.0 percent. Projections for South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific for 2021 are lowered as renewed outbreaks are met with containment measures and restrictions, hampering economic activity. South Asia’s growth outlook for fiscal year 2021 is lowered to 8.9 percent from 9.5 percent. The forecast for India is downgraded by 1.0 percentage points to 10.0 percent. Southeast Asia’s 2021 outlook is revised to 4.0 percent from 4.4 percent, while the projection for Pacific economies is lowered to 0.3 percent from 1.4 percent. However, the 2022 growth forecasts for these subregions are upgraded to 7.0 percent, 5.2 percent and 4.0 percent, respectively. The inflation forecast for Asia and the Pacific this year is raised to 2.4 percent, from 2.3% in April, reflecting rising oil and commodity prices. The projection for 2022 remains at 2.7 percent.

India’s consumer digital economy which was pegged at $85-90 billion in calendar year 2020, is expected to become a $800 billion market by 2030, according to reports released by consulting firm RedSeer at its flagship event Ground Zero 5.0. The digital economy includes 60 per cent of travel, 40 per cent non-grocery retail, 30 per cent of education, 25 per cent of food and beverages services and 6 per cent of pharma/grocery going through digital channels by calendar year 2030. Read: Indian economy, hit by COVID-19, shrinks by 7.3% in 2020-21 The Ground Zero 5.0 event was attended by Amitabh Kant, CEO of Niti Ayog along with TV Mohandas Pai, chairman, Manipal Global Education Services and Sanjeev Bikhchandani, co-founder, Info Edge along with other stalwarts of the startup industry. “Over the last one decade, entrepreneurs have dedicated themselves to solve for the specific needs and pain areas of Indian consumers. Read: Indian businesses urged to explore opportunities in Bangladesh "Today, more than 50 per cent customers say they use online services because of convenience," said Anil Kumar, founder and CEO of RedSeer. "Few years back almost over 70 per cent used to say the key reason is discounting but with the hit of Covid, digital services have undoubtedly served the customers very well, which is evident in high customer satisfaction and customers willingness to keep using the digital as a key channel to fulfill their needs. "The next wave of entrepreneurs will create innovations which will make the Indian model successful globally." According to the data released by RedSeer, 88 per cent of online shoppers that will be added between 2020-2030 will be from Tier-2, 3,4 cities. Further, cumulatove incremntal online transactions are expected to be added worth $7 billion from tier-2-plus city customers over CY 20-30. Overall, more than about $150 billion cumulative incremental online retail GMV is expected to be added from Tier-2-plus city customers over CY 20-30. Additionally, kiranas are expected to achieve approximately achieve a $1.5 trillion sales by CY30. The growth will be driven by platforms that are enabling these kiranas technologically and digitally, cashless payments, book keeping. RedSeer further said that new-age logistics players created an opportunity of 500,000 employment for gig workers in 2020. E-Logistics in India has become the fastest growing market globally with over 3 billion shipments in 2020, it said. India traditionally had an inefficient supply chain with a slow and undemocratic access. Today over 90 per cent of the orders fulfilled by the online commerce get done by the new age logistics, an industry which has come up only in the last one decade and has solved for the above challenges through technology and customer centric mindset. Further, three out of the top 10 logistics players in India are today the new age (e- logistics) players. The new age logistics players are expected to deliver 2.5 billion D2C shipments by 2030. With the rise of e-commerce, the need for specialized delivery service emerged, which led to the overall growth of the logistics segment. Emergence of this sector created 500,000 employment for gig workers in 2021. New age logistics players have reduced the average time of delivery by 2/3rd in last seven years, have covered nearly all the pin codes across India through enabled deep tech solutions to serve the different type of customer needs and requirements like same day delivery, hyperlocal, service enabled etc. Other sectors in the new-age economy have also been strongly impacted by the pandemic. A number of new trends are emerging in these various sectors which will shape the ecosystem going forward. According to RedSeer research, shared mobility saw a sharp decline due to the second Covid wave-led lockdowns in the last two months. Although the autos segment recovered the fastest, the overall sector merely clocked 18 million rides, a drop from 113 million rides in January last year. However, while the shared mobility is dipping, personal mobility space is riding on a wave of strong traction seen since last year. While auto OEMs have responded with relevant offerings to democratize access to cars, tech platforms are also accelerating focus on digitizing the car ownership journey. Online used car transaction penetration is expected to grow almost nine times in the next nearly 10 years. Another category that is ripe for digital disruption is the car service and repairs market which is still a highly fragmented market which faces challenges like inefficiencies, bloated pricing and poor experience for both consumers and service workshops. This segment is expected to penetrate about 15 per cent of this highly fragmented market by CY30.   This article was first published in Rediff.com

As Asia comes to terms with the reality of a Joe Biden administration, relief and hopes of economic and environmental revival jostle with needling anxiety and fears of inattention.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday revised down its 2020 forecast for the Asian economy to a contraction of 2.2 percent, calling it "the worst outcome for this region in living memory."

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday revised down its 2020 forecast for the Asian economy to a contraction of 2.2 percent, reports Xinhua.