Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS) President of Major General ANM Muniruzzaman (retired) has said geopolitical tensions would increase in the Indo-Pacific and beyond, which will severely impact developing countries in the region. As the US and China are important partners of Bangladesh, the country must ensure a strategic balance amid these tensions, but that largely depends on its political and diplomatic prudence, the analyst said Thursday. He made the observation following the visit of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the third most important member of the US administration, to Taipei. Highlighting the potential geostrategic consequences of the visit, Muniruzzaman said there will be a serious downturn in the relations between the US and China. "It might hit the lowest point of bilateral ties between them." "The potential spillover effect threatens to affect trade – international trade, particularly the global supply chain," Muniruzzaman noted. He said the world is already under tremendous global political turbulence because of the Ukraine war. "It can hardly take any risk, which involves major powers like the US and China." China may implement more assertive policies against Taiwan and Taiwan will be heavily affected economically if China does so, he added. Read: Trade, Connectivity, Tourism: Bangladesh, Nepal seek greater collaboration "It may make all Taiwanese investments in China more difficult. China is Taiwan's largest trading partner ($193.51 billion). So, any disruption will have severe economic consequences for Taiwan," Muniruzzaman said. "Trade war may emerge, and as a result, other countries will face bitter economic consequences. The whole world will be drastically affected in terms of economy," he added. Taiwan is the world's largest producer of semiconductors. Any disruptions will have severe consequences on global electronic goods production, the BIPSS president said. China has already increased their military presence in maritime and airspace, which also includes the sphere of Taipei, bringing further instability to the region. This geostrategic pressure might also befall Sino-Indian border security, Muniruzzaman said. "If that happens, Bangladesh may be in a difficult position to maintain its stable economy and supply chain." Mega projects in Bangladesh will get disrupted if China prioritises the Taiwan issue, he added. China is one of the most influential trading partners of Bangladesh, Muniruzzaman said, adding that bilateral trade between China and Bangladesh stands at $16 billion. Any disruption in bilateral trade will hurt the Bangladesh economy, the BIPSS president added.

The world order, almost dictated and instigated by a wide range of factors and variables, is always evolving, leaving the realities of yesteryears in history and introducing newer dynamics, regimes and paradigms, speakers said at a discussion. They said there are always newer trends emerging on the horizon, following the inclusions of the slightest of alterations in the spheres of politics, economy and strategy. President of Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS) Major General (retd) ANM Muniruzzaman and Editor of Dhaka Tribune Zafar Sobhan harboured and showcased similar sentiments in their opening remarks at the BIPSS-Dhaka Tribune roundtable titled, “Global Trends 2022” held at a city hotel on Sunday. The roundtable was attended by a number of diplomats, scholars, security experts, and youth representatives from various disciplines. Also read: Misinformation severe deterrence to progress: BIPSS President BIPSS President Muniruzzaman highlighted the key facets and variables concerning global trends, the plausible economic shocks and the “consequences of consequences”. “We live in an interconnected world. A scenario anywhere is a scenario everywhere,” he said while also mentioning that trade, economy, security and strategy are just a few issues that we have to tackle among many. Muniruzzaman indicated that they are in the process of “global urbanisation” and talked about the emergence of megacities, especially in South Asia, and the overarching influence of this towards the global trends. He discussed the global surge in populism, introduction of a data driven world, emergence of “disruptive technologies.” Muniruzzaman elaborated that this year all need to revisit, rework and reinvigorate their relationship with the earth to overcome major pertinent security threats such as food, water and energy insecurities. He said they ought to comprehend events that will shape the future and never rule out “Black Swan” incidents, like the possibilities of incidents like solar geomagnetic events that could potentially disrupt, or even destroy communications and other technology upon which we have become so dependent.  One of the keynote speakers and CPD Distinguished Fellow Dr Debapriya Bhattacharya emphasised the major dimension in terms of economic and global trends, pandemic and vaccinations. He also highlighted the existing disparity and the possibility that the inequity in terms of vaccinations might soldier on. The economist identified the disruptiveness of the year 2020, and although things started to look up in the year 2021, that is slowly “withering away” with the emerging economic uncertainties. He identified upcoming challenges for Bangladesh in the economic spectrum and the absolute need to remain vigilant to cope with these uncertainties. Delving into the trends associated with technology and security, second keynote speaker Shafqat Munir, Research Fellow at BIPSS, highlighted the various potential flashpoints, introduction of newer domains of warfare, hybrid warfare and the unabated arms race. The potential flashpoints that came to the forefront included Ukraine and European security, showcasing the absolute tension existent between Ukraine and Russia. The Taiwan Strait also came on the front burner again with strong advocacy within Taiwan for independence, while escalating tensions with China. Tensions also evidently escalated between China and India too, which has direct implications for Bangladesh. Shafqat Munir also highlighted the other existing trends such as the unabated arms race slowly looming around the corner, the increased levels of contestation, militarization and competing strategies in the maritime domain. He discussed the recurring frequency of hybrid wars and how it’ll be a “Game Changer” and highlighted the technological trends, emphasizing upon the role of Artificial Intelligence, Robotics and Augmented reality and how this whole technological trend will completely reshape our perception of reality. He put forth the recommendation that Bangladesh ought to integrate Artificial Intelligence and Robotics into our daily lives to “Stay Ahead of the Curve.” Also read: UN roundtable on climate: PM places 5-point suggestion to protect planet Pondering upon the broader geo-political and strategic trends, the third keynote speaker, Dr. Lailufar Yasmin, Professor, at the department of International Relations, University of Dhaka, started with the emphasis of economics, the interconnected world that we live in, and the ‘Butterfly Effect’ in action, by exemplifying the outbreak of Covid-19 in Wuhan and it eventually caused political, social and economic challenges all over the world. Highlighting environmental issues, she pointed to the dangers of climate change and change in weather patterns with the onset of extreme winters and extreme summers. She also pointed out Ukraine, the Korean peninsula, China and Taiwan and their geo-political realities, the growing significance of the Bay of Bengal with mechanisms like AUKUS emerging on the scene. She also highlighted the conflicts and destabilizations, notably the recent developments in Burkina Faso. On the social front, there was a growing aging population in western countries and the potential for Bangladesh to send semi-skilled labour in order to meet the consequent demand there, rather than the practice of sending unskilled labour.  Lailufar Yasmin also pointed to mental health issues during the pandemic, including the stress of joblessness and so on. Thanking everyone, Zafar Sobhan ended on a rather ambivalent note, highlighting the change in terms of dynamic and paradigms and saying that “We can’t talk of 2022 in isolation. It is the start of a new world. The pandemic has put the world in a deep freeze from which we are now emerging.”

The participation of women in journalism is still very low for various socioeconomic drawbacks, speakers said at a dialogue.  They said the presence of women in journalism, especially in leadership roles in Bangladesh, is very negligible with the lack of ‘role model’ and ‘heroes’ which tends to have an adverse impact on women’s participation in the field of journalism.  Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS) recently organised their latest BIPSS Policy Café “Coffee@BIPSS” on "Women in Journalism: Prospects & Challenges" at a city hotel.  BIPSS President Major General ANM Muniruzzaman moderated the event, said a media release on Thursday. Also read: Misinformation severe deterrence to progress: BIPSS President Ayesha Kabir, Consulting Editor of Prothom Alo, English, was the guest speaker at the policy dialogue attended by diplomats, editors, scholars, defence personnel, academics and other dignitaries and relevant participants. The speakers highlighted the huge percentage of women within the overall population and thus they have a more than crucial role in terms of their participation towards shaping public life and national perception towards the media.  They said the surge of Covid-19 has only exacerbated the underlying complexities regarding the whole situation. They also highlighted the worrying lack of safety that a woman has to encounter while undertaking her journalistic duties and responsibilities.  The speakers focused on the role of women in journalism towards ensuring a gender sensitive national agenda, while showcasing the components that are significant towards ensuring the sensitization.  They also suggested various recommendations towards a course of actions conducive towards ensuring greater acceptance and inclusion of the role of women in journalism for the wider society, which is imperative in the age of globalisation and connectivity.  Also read: Media orientation prog on humanitarian journalism held in Cox’s Bazar Another key aspect that came to the forefront is how women bring fresh perspectives, challenges essential towards formulating a more pragmatic scenario in journalism. During the interactive discussion between the guest speaker and the audience, many key aspects concerning the issue came into the spotlight, especially an increase in terms of awareness over the role of women’s participation in journalism. 

The smaller nations like Bangladesh should avoid partisan and military engagements with the big powers in the region to uphold strategic autonomy, a webinar was told on Wednesday. The smaller independent nations in the region such as Bangladesh need to avoid any kind of partisan and military entanglements to ensure strategic autonomy and avoid escalation into a second cold war, said President of Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS) Maj. Gen. (Retd) ANM Muniruzzaman. He, however, said the nature of competition between the Quad and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is currently more economical than militaristic. Muniruzzaman said the strategic tension between the USA and China might have an adverse effect on the stability of the Asia-Pacific region.

Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS) President Maj Gen (retd) ANM Muniruzzaman has sought a more proactive role from India in resolving the Rohingya crisis. “We need a more proactive role from India in solving the Rohingya crisis,” he said while speaking at a symposium titled ‘Bangladesh-India Relations: Prognosis for the Future’ which premiered on Facebook on Thursday night. Renowned scholar-diplomat and adviser on foreign affairs to the last caretaker government Dr Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury chaired the event hosted by the Cosmos Foundation, a philanthropic arm of the Cosmos Group.  Chairman of the Cosmos Foundation Enayetullah Khan delivered the opening remarks at the event. In reply, Indian High Commissioner to Bangladesh Vikram Kumar Doraiswami, who delivered the keynote speech, said they fully support the idea of “safe, sustainable and expedited” return of the displaced people back to Myanmar. “I can’t see how it can be doubted in any way.” Also read: Doraiswami keen to push Covaxin as Covishield exports disrupted   He said the presence of Rohingyas is not in Bangladesh’s interest, not in the region's interest, and certainly it is not in India’s interest. “The point is that they need to go back.” However, former Indian High Commissioner to Bangladesh Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty said India, which shares a border with Bangladesh and Myanmar, cannot fully support Bangladesh over the Rohingya issue due to its internal problem and national interests.  “On Myanmar, my point is that India’s ambivalence should be understood in the context of India’s national inserts. We can’t swing into absolute support and favour for Bangladesh,” he said. Pinak said he will not get into details but the people who know will understand the situation. “We’ve an insurgency problem in the northeast and we’ve our own problems and difficulties in dealing with Myanmarees on the Rohingya issue,” he said.   Bangladesh and Myanmar signed the repatriation deal on November 23, 2017. On January 16, 2018, Bangladesh and Myanmar signed a document on ‘Physical Arrangement’, which was supposed to facilitate the return of Rohingyas to their homeland. Bangladesh says the Rohingyas do not trust their government, and Bangladesh gave a number of proposals to build trust among them. Bangladesh is trying in multiple ways -- bilaterally, multilaterally, tri-laterally and through the judicial system -- to find a lasting solution to the Rohingya crisis. Bangladesh proposed deployment of nonmilitary civilian observers from Myanmar’s friendly countries -- Japan, China, Russia, India and Asean countries. During her meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on March 27, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina requested India, as a member of the United Nations Security Council, to play a “strong role” in the early repatriation of the displaced Rohingyas back to Myanmar.  The two leaders reiterated the importance of safe, speedy and sustainable return of Rohingyas to their homeland for the greater security of the region. Also read: Cosmos Dialogue on Dhaka-Washington ties premieres Saturday on Facebook Modi expressed appreciation at the generosity of Bangladesh in sheltering and providing humanitarian assistance to the 1.1 million forcibly displaced persons from the Rakhine State of Myanmar. Border Killing On border killing, Doraiswami said he repeatedly said this is a complex phenomenon that requires a far greater effort, including by district governance on both sides and by border guards on both sides. He said people do need to recognise that a fair number of the people who get killed on the border, most unfortunately, are also Indian people on the Indian side of the border. Former High Commissioner Pinak said border killing is an issue of joint responsibility. “Alleging and pointing fingers at India all the time don’t help resolve the problem and don’t help create the public perception in India.” He said the main reason behind the border killing is that a huge smuggling network and a huge mafia operating on both sides of the borders which should be addressed jointly. Muniruzzaman said border killing is one of the major irritants in the bilateral relations between the two close neighbours. “It’s something which is not accepted by the people of Bangladesh.” Water Sharing Muniruzzaman said the Teesta water-sharing is a problem that needs to be addressed as it has been lying without a solution for too long. “It’s not only Teesta water sharing, we need agreements and water sharing mechanisms of all other 53 common rivers with India,” he said. On March 27, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina reiterated Bangladesh’s long-pending request for concluding the interim agreement on the sharing of the waters of the Teesta River for the fair share of the Teesta water to alleviate the sufferings of millions. It is necessary that Bangladesh receives its fair share of the Teesta water, the draft agreement of which has already been agreed upon by both governments in January 2011 to alleviate the sufferings and save the livelihoods of millions of people dependent on the Teesta river basin, she underscored. Prime Minister Narendra Modi reiterated India’s sincere commitment and continued efforts to conclude this agreement in consultation with relevant stakeholders. Muniruzzaman said Bangladesh and India have been passing through the honeymoon period of bilateral relationship as it is now at its peak. “But all the relationships need to be nurtured, and that’s a way we should follow. As we look at the future which is extremely difficult to predict, we’ll have to pave a way for a smooth relationship in the future. So, it’s necessary to analyse the current irritants in the relationship that can become obstacles as we move towards the future for bilateral relations,” he said. Muniruzzaman said the vaccine nationalism that has been seen in India is a major irritant to the people of Bangladesh and India should resolve the problem over ensuring the vaccines to Bangladesh since the country paid money for it in advance. “That’s an issue that needs to be addressed.” Also read: Cosmos Dialogue on Bangladesh's relations with Nordic countries begins in city The security expert also thinks there are India’s some internal political issues like Citizenship Amendment Act and the National Register of Citizens that can have an implication on the bilateral ties and these issues need to be addressed. He said the relationship has to be built with the people of the two countries in a more holistic and comprehensive way. Former Bangladesh High Commissioner to India Tariq A Karim said Bangladesh and India can never dream of having an adverse or a hostile relationship with each other due to their geographical positions.

President of Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS) Major General (retd) ANM Muniruzzaman on Tuesday said fake news and misinformation are severe deterrence to the progress of any nation.

President of Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS) Major General (Retd) ANM Muniruzzaman on Monday recommended counter-measures and new policy formulations necessary to decrease and eradicate gender-based violence.   

President of Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS) Major General (Retd) ANM Muniruzzaman on Thursday said Bangladesh needs to remain very careful keeping its national interest protected as the strategic landscape in the Asia Pacific region is rapidly changing.   "Strategic landscape is getting changed rapidly. We need to observe it very carefully," he said at a virtual dialogue titled “Bangladesh-China Development Cooperation: Experience and Outlook”. The objective of the event was to review Bangladesh’s economic relationship with China and discuss the outlook for future bi-lateral partnership through investment and trade.