Economies across the Middle East and Central Asia will likely slow this year as persistently high inflation and rising interest rates bite into their post-pandemic gains, the International Monetary Fund said Wednesday. The IMF's Regional Economic Outlook blamed in part rising energy costs, as well as elevated food prices, for the estimated slower growth. The report said that while oil-dependent economies of the Gulf Arab states and others in the region have reaped the benefits of elevated crude prices, other countries — such as Pakistan — have seen growth collapse after an unprecedented flooding last summer or as economic woes worsened. The regional slowdown also comes as an explosion of fighting in Sudan between two top rival generals — who only a year ago as allies orchestrated a military coup that upended the African country's transition to democracy — threatens a nation where IMF and World Bank debt relief remains on hold. Rising interest rates, used by central banks worldwide to try to stem inflation's rise, increase the costs of borrowing money. That will affect nations carrying heavier debts, the IMF warned. Also Read: IMF satisfied with progress of BBS’ GDP and inflation data updated under new method “This year we’re seeing inflation again being the most challenging issue for most of the countries," Jihad Azour, the director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the IMF, told The Associated Press. "For those who have high level of debt, the challenge of increase in interest rate globally, as well as also the tightening of monetary policy, is affecting them.” The IMF forecast predicts regional growth will drop from 5.3% last year to 3.1% this year. Overall, regional inflation is expected to be at 14.8%, unchanged from last year, as Russia's war on Ukraine continues to pressure global food supplies and affect energy markets. It will be even worse in Pakistan, where the IMF projected inflation to more than double, to about 27%. Pakistan and IMF officials have held repeated talks over the release of a stalled key tranche of a $6 billion bailout package loan to Islamabad. The IMF warned that financial conditions worldwide will tighten this year, brought on in part by two bank failures in the United States in March. The sudden collapse of Credit Suisse before it was purchased by UBS also strained markets. For Sudan, Azour acknowledged the challenge as the country faces a humanitarian crisis brought on by the weeks of fighting there. The violence has also worsened a debt crisis that has gripped the country for decades as it faced Western sanctions. “We have worked with the government of Sudan, for the Sudanese people, in order to help them by achieving a debt operation that would allow Sudan to have a debt relief of more than $50 billion," Azour said. "But unfortunately, the recent developments ... put in a halt to all of of those efforts,” he added.

The Biden administration on Tuesday pledged to support the independence of the five Central Asian nations, in a not-so-subtle warning to the former Soviet states that Russia’s value as a partner has been badly compromised by its year-old war against Ukraine. In Kazakhstan for meetings with top Central Asian diplomats, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said no country, particularly those that have traditionally been in Moscow’s orbit, can afford to ignore the threats posed by Russian aggression to not only their territory but to the international rules-based order and the global economy. In all of his discussions, Blinken stressed the importance of respect for “sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence.” The Central Asian states have hewed to a studied position of neutrality on Ukraine, neither supporting Russia’s invasion nor U.S. and Western condemnations of the war. “Ever since being the first nation to recognize Kazakhstan in December of 1991, the United States has been firmly committed to the sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence of Kazakhstan and countries across the region,” Blinken said after meeting in Astana with the foreign ministers of the so-called C5+1 group, made up of the U.S. and Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Also Read: Blinken tours Turkey’s earthquake zone, pledges $100M in aid “In our discussions today, I reaffirmed the United States’ unwavering support for Kazakhstan, like all nations, to freely determine its future, especially as we mark one year since Russia lost its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in a failed attempt to deny its people that very freedom,” Blinken told reporters at a news conference with Kazakh Foreign Minister Mukhtar Tileuberdi. Tileuberdi thanked Blinken for the U.S. commitment to Kazakhstan’s freedom, but signaled that his country was unlikely to adopt either a pro-Russian or pro-Western position. Tileuberdi said Kazakhstan would continue to act in its own national interest given “the complex international situation.” “Our country continues a balanced multilateral foreign policy,” he said. Tileuberdi noted that while Kazakhstan has very close and historic ties with both Russia and Ukraine, it would not allow its territory to be used for any Russian aggression or sanctions evasion. He added that even though Kazakhstan shares the world’s longest land border with Russia, it did not see a threat from Moscow. Blinken also held separate meetings in Astana with the foreign ministers of Kyrgyzstan, Tajiistan and Turkmenistan. After visiting Kazakhstan, Blinken arrived in Tashkent, the capital of Uzbekistan, on his first trip to Central Asia as secretary of state. None of the five former Soviet republics in Central Asia, traditionally viewed as part of the Kremlin’s sphere of influence, publicly backed the Russian invasion. Kazakhstan welcomed tens of thousands of Russians fleeing from the military call-up last fall. Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has spoken by phone with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy three times since Russian troops rolled into Ukraine last February, calling for a diplomatic resolution of the conflict in accordance with the U.N. charter and international law. However, all five Central Asian republics, along with India, which Blinken will visit next after Uzbekistan, abstained in a vote to condemn the invasion as a violation of core international principles last week at the U.N. General Assembly, on the first anniversary of the war. “If we allow (those principles) to be violated with impunity, that does open the prospect that Russia itself will continue to consider further aggression against other countries, if it sets its sights on them, or other countries will learn the wrong lesson and would-be aggressors in every part of the world will say ’well, if Russia can get away with this, then we can too,’” Blinken said. “That’s a recipe for a world of conflict, a world of instability, a world that I don’t think any of us want to live in.” “So, that’s why it’s been so important for so many countries to stand up and say, no we don’t accept this,” he said. The U.S. has for decades sought — without great success — to wean the former Soviet nations of the region from Moscow’s influence. Some, notably Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, assisted the U.S. logistically during its 20-year conflict in Afghanistan, but their ties to Russia remain deep and extend to the economic, military and diplomatic spheres as members of the Commonwealth of Independent States, a Moscow-dominated grouping of ex-Soviet nations.

India had invited the leaders of five Central Asian countries - Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan to be the collective Chief Guests at India’s Republic Day parade and celebrations on the 26th of the month, but on January 18, 2022, news broke that the ‘Stans’ of Central Asia were not coming after all. In the wake of the surge in Covid infections, India cancelled the plan and has decided to have a virtual meet instead, eports India Today. Read: Strong fundamentals and reforms helped India attract highest FDI It had been a tactical move on New Delhi’s part to invite the leaders of all five nations to be co-chief guests at the parade as the five ‘Stans’ are considered very crucial to an energy-hungry India. The Central Asian countries between them have huge reserves of oil, natural gas and uranium that India, with its very high energy import dependency, simply cannot ignore. Over the past 30 years, since the time the ‘Stans’ stopped being Soviet Socialist Republics and became independent nations in their own rights, India has tried to develop strategies to harness their resource potential. Read: India’s tourism gets a huge push at Expo 2020 Dubai India was one of the first countries to accord recognition to the newly independent ‘Stans’ and the then Prime Minister of India Narasimha Rao visited the region twice, once in 1993 and then again in 1995, and trade and security treaties were signed. But despite three decades having passed, trade between India and the region still hovers around a relatively paltry $2-billion mark where China, whose influence has been growing in the last decade, in comparison, trades goods worth over $100 billion.

Tursunjan Mamat, a practicing Muslim in western China’s Xinjiang region, said he’s fasting for Ramadan but his daughters, ages 8 and 10, are not. Religious activity including fasting is not permitted for minors, he explained. The 32-year-old ethnic Uyghur wasn’t complaining, at least not to a group of foreign journalists brought to his home outside the city of Aksu by government officials, who listened in on his responses. It seemed he was giving a matter-of-fact description of how religion is practiced under rules set by China’s Communist Party. “My children know who our holy creator is, but I don’t give them detailed religious knowledge,” he said, speaking through a translator. “After they reach 18, they can receive religious education according to their own will.” Also Read: "Xinjiang genocide" allegations against China unjustified: scholars Under the weight of official policies, the future of Islam appears precarious in Xinjiang, a rugged realm of craggy snow-capped mountains and barren deserts bordering Central Asia. Outside observers say scores of mosques have been demolished, a charge Beijing denies, and locals say the number of worshippers is sinking. A decade ago, 4,000 to 5,000 people attended Friday prayers at the Id Kah Mosque in the historic Silk Road city of Kashgar. Now only 800 to 900 do, said the mosque’s imam, Mamat Juma. He attributed the drop to a natural shift in values, not government policy, saying the younger generation wants to spend more time working than praying. The Chinese government organized a five-day visit to Xinjiang in April for about a dozen foreign correspondents, part of an intense propaganda campaign to counter allegations of abuse. Officials repeatedly urged journalists to recount what they saw, not what China calls the lies of critical Western politicians and media. Beijing says it protects freedom of religion, and citizens can practice their faith so long as they adhere to laws and regulations. In practice, any religious activity must be done in line with restrictions evident at almost every stop in Xinjiang — from a primary school where the headmaster said fasting wasn’t observed because of the “separation of religion and education,” to a cotton yarn factory where workers are banned from praying on site, even in their dormitory rooms. “Within the factory grounds, it’s prohibited. But they can go home, or they can go to the mosque to pray,” said Li Qiang, the general manager of Aksu Huafu Textiles Co. “Dormitories are for the workers to rest. We want them to rest well so that they can maintain their health.” By law, Chinese are allowed to follow Islam, Buddhism, Taoism, Roman Catholicism or non-denominational Protestantism. In practice, there are limits. Workers are free to fast, the factory manager said, but they are required to take care of their bodies. If children fast, it’s not good for their growth, said the Id Kah mosque’s imam. Researchers at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, a think tank, said in a report last year that mosques have been torn down or damaged in what they called the deliberate erasure of Uyghur and Islamic culture. They identified 170 destroyed mosques through satellite imagery, about 30% of a sample they examined. The Chinese government rejects ASPI research, which also has included reports on Beijing’s efforts to influence politics in Australia and other Western democracies, as lies promoted by “anti-China forces.” The government denies destroying mosques and allegations of mass incarcerations and forced labor that have strained China’s relations with Western governments. They say they have spent heavily on upgrading mosques, outfitting them with fans, flush toilets, computers and air conditioners. Xinjiang’s biggest ethnic minority is Uyghurs, a predominantly Muslim group who are 10 million of the region’s population of 25 million people. They have borne the brunt of a government crackdown that followed a series of riots, bombings, and knifings, although ethnic Kazakhs and others have been swept up as well. The authorities obstruct independent reporting in the region, though such measures have recently eased somewhat. AP journalists visiting Xinjiang on their own in recent years have been followed by undercover officers, stopped, interrogated and forced to delete photos or videos. Also Read: 'No Sweets': For Syrian refugees in Lebanon, a tough Ramadan Id Kah Mosque, its pastel yellow facade overlooking a public square, is far from destroyed. Its imam toes the official line, and he spoke thankfully of the government largesse that has renovated the more than 500-year-old institution. “There is no such thing as mosque demolition,” Juma said, other than some rundown mosques taken down for safety renovations. Kashgar has been largely spared mosque destruction, the Australian institute report said. Juma added he was unaware of mosques being converted to other uses, although AP journalists saw one turned into a cafe and others padlocked shut during visits in 2018. The tree-lined paths of the Id Kah Mosque’s grounds are tranquil, and it’s easy to miss the three surveillance cameras keeping watch over whoever comes in. The imam’s father and previous leader of the mosque was killed by extremists in 2014 for his pro-government stance. About 50 people prayed before nightfall on a recent Monday evening, mostly elderly men. A Uyghur imam who fled China in 2012 called such scenes a staged show for visitors. “They have a routine of making such a scene every time they need it,” said Ali Akbar Dumallah in a video interview from Turkey. “People know exactly what to do, how to lie, it’s not something new for them.” Staged or not, it appears Islam is on the decline. The ban on religious education for minors means that the young aren’t gaining the knowledge they should, Dumallah said. “The next generation will accept the Chinese mindset,” he said. “They’ll still be called Uyghurs, but their mindset and values will be gone.” Officials say those who want to study Islam can do so after the age of 18 at a state-sponsored Islamic studies institute. At a newly-built campus on the outskirts of Urumqi, the capital of Xinjiang, hundreds train to become imams according to a government-authored curriculum, studying a textbook with sections like “Patriotism is a part of faith” and “be a Muslim who loves the motherland, abide by the national constitution, laws and regulations.” “Continue the sinicization of Islam in our country,” the foreword reads. “Guide Islam to adapt to a socialist society.” Though Islam lives on, the sinicization campaign has palpably reduced the role of religion in daily life. Near Urumqi’s grand bazaar, several dozen elderly men trickled out of a mosque during an unannounced visit by an AP journalist. Prayers continue as usual, the imam said, though attendance has fallen considerably. A jumbo screen showing state media coverage of top Chinese leaders hung above the entrance. Down the street, the exterior at the Great White Mosque had been shorn of the Muslim profession of faith. On a Wednesday evening at prayer time, the halls were nearly empty, and worshippers had to go through x-rays, metal detectors and face-scanning cameras to enter. Also Read:China names Mars rover for traditional fire god Freedom of religion in China is defined as the freedom to believe — or not believe. It was a mantra repeated by many who spoke to the foreign journalists: It’s not just that people have the right to fast or pray, they also have the right not to fast or pray. “I really worry that the number of believers will decrease, but that shouldn’t be a reason to force them to pray here,” Juma said. His mosque, which flies a Chinese national flag above its entrance, has been refurbished, but fewer and fewer people come.