Russia's invasion of Ukraine
Ukraine: 9,000 of its troops killed since Russia began war
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has already killed some 9,000 Ukrainian soldiers since it began nearly six months ago, a general said, and the fighting Monday showed no signs that the war is abating.
At a veteran's event, Ukraine’s military chief, Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, said many of Ukraine’s children need to be taken care of because “their father went to the front line and, perhaps, is one of those almost 9,000 heroes who died.”
In Nikopol, across the river from Ukraine's main nuclear power plant, Russian shelling wounded four people Monday, an official said. The city on the Dnieper River has faced relentless pounding since July 12 that has damaged 850 buildings and sent about half its population of 100,000 fleeing.
“I feel hate towards Russians,” said 74-year-old Liudmyla Shyshkina, standing on the edge of her destroyed fourth-floor apartment in Nikopol that no longer has walls. She is still injured from the Aug. 10 blast that killed her 81-year-old husband, Anatoliy.
“The Second World War didn’t take away my father, but the Russian war did,” noted Pavlo Shyshkin, his son.
Also read: UN: US buying big Ukraine grain shipment for hungry regions
The U.N. says 5,587 civilians have been killed and 7,890 wounded in the Russian invasion of Ukraine that began on Feb. 24, although the estimate is likely an undercount. The U.N. children’s agency said Monday that at least 972 Ukrainian children have been killed or injured since Russia invaded. UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell said these are U.N.-verified figures but “we believe the number to be much higher.”
U.S. President Joe Biden and the leaders of Britain, France and Germany pleaded Sunday for Russia to end military operations so close to the Zaporizhzhya nuclear plant — Europe's largest — but Nikopol came under fire three times overnight from rockets and mortar shells. Houses, a kindergarten, a bus station and stores were hit, authorities said.
There are widespread fears that continued shelling and fighting in the area could lead to a nuclear catastrophe. Russia has asked for an urgent meeting of the U.N. Security Council on Tuesday to discuss the situation — a move “the audacity” of which Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy decried in his evening video address.
“The total number of different Russian cruise missiles that Russia used against us is approaching 3,500. It is simply impossible to count the strikes of Russian artillery; there are so many of them, and they are so intense," Zelensky said Monday.
Western nations had already scheduled a council meeting on Wednesday -- the six-month anniversary of the Russian invasion -- on its impact on Ukraine.
Vladimir Rogov, an official with the Russia-installed administration of the occupied Zaporizhzhia region, claimed that because of shelling from Ukraine, staffing at the nuclear plant had been cut sharply. Ukrainians say Russia is storing weapons at the plant and has blocked off areas to Ukrainian nuclear workers.
Monday's announcement of the scope of Ukraine's military dead stands in sharp contrast to Russia's military, which last gave an update on March 25 when it said 1,351 Russian troops were killed during the first month of fighting. U.S. military officials estimated two weeks ago that Russia has lost between 70,000 to 80,000 soldiers, both killed and wounded in action.
On Monday though, Moscow turned its attention to one specific civilian death.
Russia blamed Ukrainian spy agencies for the weekend car bombing on the outskirts of Moscow that killed the daughter of a far-right Russian nationalist who ardently supports the invasion of Ukraine.
Russia’s Federal Security Service, the main successor to the KGB, said Monday the killing was “prepared and perpetrated by the Ukrainian special services.” It charged that the bombing that killed 29-year-old TV commentator Darya Dugina, whose father, political theorist Alexander Dugin, is often referred to as “Putin’s brain," was carried out by a Ukrainian citizen who left Russia for Estonia quickly afterward.
Ukrainian officials have vehemently denied any involvement in the car bombing. Estonian officials say Russia has not asked them to look for the alleged bomber or even spoken to them about the bombing.
Also read: Doctors stay in Ukraine’s war-hit towns: ‘People need us’
On the front lines, the Ukraine military said it carried out a strike on a key bridge over the Dnieper River in the Russian-occupied Kherson region. Local Russia-installed officials said the strike killed two people Monday and wounded 16 others.
Photos on social media showed thick plumes of smoke rising over the Antonivskiy Bridge, an important supply route for the Russian military in Kherson.
On the Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula, anxiety has been spreading following a spate of fires and explosions at Russian facilities over the past two weeks. The Russian-backed governor of Sevastopol, Mikhail Razvozhaev, ordered that signs showing the location of bomb shelters be placed in the city, which had long seemed untouchable.
Razvozhaev said on Telegram the city is well-protected but “it is better to know where the shelters are.”
Sevastopol, the Crimean port that is the home of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, has seen a series of drone attacks. A drone exploded at the fleet’s headquarters on July 31, and another was shot down over it last week. Authorities said air-defense systems have shot down other drones as well.
On Monday evening, Sevastopol residents reported hearing loud explosions on social media. Razvozhaev said the air-defense system had shot down “an object ... at high altitude."
“Preliminary (conclusion) is that it is, again, a drone,” he wrote on Telegram.
Russian President Vladimir Putin didn't directly mention the war during a speech Monday marking National Flag Day but echoed some of the justifications cited for the invasion.
"We are firm in pursuing in the international arena only those policies that meet the fundamental interests of the motherland,” Putin said. He maintains that Russia sent troops into Ukraine to protect its people against the encroaching West.
2 years ago
Global economic outlook worsens as recession looms: IMF
Still reeling from the Covid pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the global economy is facing an increasingly murky and uncertain outlook, according to the latest report of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
"The World Economic Outlook Update July 2022: Gloomy and More Uncertain," released on Tuesday, highlights the significant consequences of the stalling of the world's three main economic powerhouses – the US, China and the major European economies.
The outlook has darkened significantly since April, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, IMF economic counsellor and director of research, said. "The world may soon be teetering on the edge of a global recession, only two years after the last one."
The baseline forecast for global growth is for it to slow from 6.1 percent last year, to 3.2 percent in 2022 – 0.4 percent lower than forecast in the last Outlook update in April.
With higher-than-expected inflation – especially in the US and the largest European economies – global financial conditions are becoming tighter.
In the US, reduced household purchasing power and tighter monetary policy will drive growth down to 2.3 percent this year and one percent next year, according to the outlook.
China's slowdown has been worse than anticipated amid Covid outbreaks and lockdowns, with negative effects from Russia's invasion of Ukraine continuing.
Also, further lockdowns and a deepening real estate crisis there have pushed growth down to 3.3 percent this year – the slowest in more than four decades, excluding the pandemic.
And in the Eurozone, growth has been revised down to 2.6 percent this year and 1.2 percent in 2023, reflecting spillovers from the Ukraine war and tighter monetary policy.
As a result, global output contracted in the second quarter of this year, Pierre-Olivier said.
Read: IMF voices concern over rising bad loans in banks
Despite the global slowdown, inflation has been revised up, in part due to rising food and energy prices.
This year it is anticipated to reach 6.6 percent in advanced economies and 9.5 percent in emerging market and developing economies – representing upward revisions of 0.9 and 0.8 percentage points respectively. And it is projected to remain elevated for longer.
Broadened inflation in many economies reflects the impact of cost pressures from disrupted supply chains and historically tight labour markets, the IMF official said.
The report outlines some risks ahead, including that the war in Ukraine could end European gas supply from Russia altogether; rising prices could cause widespread food insecurity and social unrest; geopolitical fragmentation may impede global trade and cooperation.
Inflation could remain stubbornly high if labour markets remain overly tight or inflation expectations are too optimistic and prove more costly than expected.
And renewed Covid outbreaks and lockdowns threaten to further suppress China's growth.
"In a plausible alternative scenario where some of these risks materialise…inflation will rise and global growth decelerates further to about 2.6 percent this year and two percent next year, a pace that growth has fallen below just five times since 1970," said the IMF economist.
"Under this scenario, both the US and the Euro area experience near-zero growth next year, with negative knock-on effects for the rest of the world."
Current inflation levels represent a clear risk to macroeconomic stability, according to the outlook.
Responding to the situation, central banks in advanced economies are withdrawing monetary support faster than expected, while many in emerging markets and developing economies began raising interest rates last year.
The resulting synchronised monetary tightening across countries is historically unprecedented, and its effects are expected to bite, with global growth slowing next year and inflation decelerating, Pierre-Olivier said.
While acknowledging that tighter monetary policy would have economic costs, the IMF official upheld that delaying it would only exacerbate hardship.
And hampered by difficulties in coordinating creditor agreements, how and whether debt can be restructured remains unpredictable.
He argued that domestic policies responding to the impacts of high energy and food prices should focus on those most affected, without distorting prices.
Governments should refrain from hoarding food and energy and instead look to unwind barriers to trade such as food export bans, which drive world prices higher, the IMF official said.
2 years ago
Biden to lay out in Japan who's joining new Asia trade pact
President Joe Biden on Monday is set to launch a new Indo-Pacific trade pact designed to signal U.S. dedication to the region and address the need for stability in commerce after the chaos caused by the pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The White House says the new Indo-Pacific Economic Framework will help the United States and Asian economies work more closely on issues including supply chains, digital trade, clean energy, worker protections and anticorruption efforts. The details still need to be negotiated among the member countries, making it difficult for the administration to say how this framework can fulfill the promise of helping U.S. workers and businesses while also meeting global needs.
Countries signing on to the framework were to be announced Monday during Biden's visit to Tokyo for talks with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. It's the latest step by the Biden administration to try to preserve and broaden U.S. influence in a region that until recently looked to be under the growing sway of China.
Also read: Biden starts Asia trip with global issues and tech on agenda
Kishida hosted a formal state welcome for Biden at Akasaka Palace, including a white-clad military honor guard and band in the front plaza. Reviewing the assembled troops, Biden placed his hand over his heart as he passed that American flag, and bowed slightly as he passed the Japanese standard.
Biden is in the midst of a five-day visit to South Korea and Japan — the first trip to Asia of his presidency — that wraps on Tuesday. The White House announced plans to build the economic framework in October as a replacement for the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which the U.S. dropped out of in 2017 under then-President Donald Trump.
The new pact comes at a moment when the administration believes it has the edge in its competition with Beijing. Bloomberg Economics published a report last week projecting U.S. GDP growth at about 2.8% in 2022 compared to 2% for China, which has been trying to contain the coronavirus through strict lockdowns while also dealing with a property bust. The slowdown has undermined assumptions that China would automatically supplant the U.S. as the world's leading economy.
“The fact that the United States will grow faster than China this year, for the first time since 1976, is a quite striking example of how countries in this region should be looking at the question of trends and trajectories,” said White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan.
Critics say the framework has gaping shortcomings. It doesn't offer incentives to prospective partners by lowering tariffs or provide signatories with greater access to U.S. markets. Those limitations may not make the U.S. framework an attractive alternative to the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which still moved forward after the U.S. bailed out. China, the largest trading partner for many in the region, is also seeking to join TPP.
“I think a lot of partners are going to look at that list and say: ‘That’s a good list of issues. I’m happy to be involved,’" said Matthew Goodman, a former director for international economics on the National Security Council during President Barack Obama’s administration. But he said they also may ask, "Are we going to get any tangible benefits out of participating in this framework?”
It is possible for countries to be part of both trade deals.
Biden's first stop Monday was a private meeting with Emperor Naruhito of Japan at Naruhito's residence on the lush grounds of the Imperial Palace before diving into wide-ranging talks with Kishida about trade, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the North Korean nuclear threat, the two countries' COVID-19 responses and more.
The two leaders were also set to meet with families of Japanese citizens abducted by North Korea decades ago. The Japanese premier took office last fall and is looking to strengthen ties with the U.S. and build a personal relationship with Biden. He'll host the president at a restaurant for dinner.
The launch of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, also known as IPEF, has been billed by the White House as one of the bigger moments of Biden's Asia trip and of his ongoing effort to bolster ties with Pacific allies. Through it all, administration officials have kept a close eye on China's growing economic and military might in the region.
Also read: Biden co-hosting 2nd COVID summit as world's resolve falters
In September the U.S. announced a new partnership with Australia and Britain called AUKUS that is aimed and deepening security, diplomatic and defense cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region. Through that AUKUS partnership, Australia will purchase nuclear-powered submarines, and the U.S. is to increase rotational force deployments to Australia.
The U.S. president has also devoted great attention to the informal alliance known as the Quad, formed during the response to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami that killed some 230,000 people. Biden and fellow leaders from the alliance, which also includes Australia, India and Japan, are set to gather in Tokyo for their second in-person meeting in less than a year. The leaders have also held two video calls since Biden took office.
And earlier this month, Biden gathered representatives from nine of the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Washington for a summit, the first ever by the organization in the U.S. capital. Biden announced at the summit the U.S. would invest some $150 million in clean energy and infrastructure initiatives in ASEAN nations.
Sullivan confirmed on Sunday that Taiwan — which had sought membership in the IPEF framework— isn’t among the governments that will be included. Participation of the self-ruled island of Taiwan, which China claims as its own, would have irked Beijing.
Sullivan said the U.S. wants to deepen its economic partnership with Taiwan, including on high technology issues and semiconductor supply on a one-to-one basis.
Biden will wrap up his five days in Asia on Tuesday with the Quad meeting and one-on-one talks with India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Australia's new prime minister, Anthony Albanese.
The center-left leader of the Australian Labor Party this weekend defeated incumbent Scott Morrison and ended nine years of conservative rule.
Modi, leader of the world's biggest democracy, has declined to join the U.S. and other allies in levying sanctions against Russia over the invasion of Ukraine. In a video call last month, Biden asked Modi not to accelerate its purchase of Russian oil.
2 years ago
North Korea says it tested cameras for spy satellite
North Korea said Monday it tested cameras to be installed on a spy satellite, with the announcement coming a day after after its neighbors detected a new ballistic missile launch.
While North Korean state media didn't directly acknowledge any missile launch Sunday, it said the "important test” involved cameras for a reconnaissance satellite conducting vertical and oblique photography of a specific area of Earth. State media also released photos of the Korean Peninsula that appeared to be taken from space.
Read:US hits NKorean officials with sanctions after missile test
Technical details of the North Korean statement couldn’t be independently confirmed. But the statement suggests North Korea likely launched a rocket or a missile to take space-based photos.
A spy satellite is among an array of sophisticated weapons systems that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un vowed last year to develop under military modernization plans to cope with what he called hostile U.S. policies toward his country.
Putting a satellite into orbit requires a long-range rocket launch, but the United Nations has banned North Korea from such launches, since both ballistic missiles and the rockets used for satellite launches share similar bodies, engines and other technologies.
The Korean Central News Agency said “the test is of great significance” in North Korea's satellite development because it confirmed “the characteristics and working accuracy of high-definition photographing system, data transmission system and attitude control devices," by the National Aerospace Development Administration and the Academy of Defense Science
After repeated failures, North Korea successfully put its first satellite into orbit in 2012 and second one in 2016. North Korea said both were Earth observation satellites and that their launches were part of its peaceful space development program.
Outside experts questioned whether those satellites have been working normally but said the North’s past satellite launches have improved its missile programs. In 2017, North Korea performed three intercontinental ballistic missile tests and its sixth and most powerful nuclear test as part of its efforts to acquire a nuclear-armed missile capable of reaching the American homeland.
According to U.S, South Korean and Japanese accounts, North Korea launched a ballistic missile Sunday off its east coast. Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi said the missile flew about 300 kilometers (190 miles) at a maximum altitude of about 600 kilometers (370 miles) before landing off North Korea’s eastern coast.
Read:North Korea fires 2 suspected missiles in 6th launch in 2022
The missile launch was the eighth of its kind this year and the first since Jan. 30.
Some experts say North Korea may view the U.S. preoccupation with Russia's invasion of Ukraine as a chance to accelerate testing activity without receiving any serious response from Washington.
Kim imposed a self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and long-range missile tests in 2018 at the start of now-stalled nuclear diplomacy with then-President Donald Trump. But North Korea recently hinted at lifting that moratorium, raising speculation that it might perform an ICBM or a satellite-carrying rocket launch soon.
2 years ago