United News of Bangladesh

South Africa's noticeable drop in new COVID-19 cases in recent days may signal that the country's dramatic omicron-driven surge has passed its peak, medical experts say. Daily virus case counts are notoriously unreliable, as they can be affected by uneven testing, reporting delays and other fluctuations. But they are offering one tantalizing hint — far from conclusive yet — that omicron infections may recede quickly after a ferocious spike. South Africa has been at the forefront of the omicron wave and the world is watching for any signs of how it may play out there to try to understand what may be in store. After hitting a high of nearly 27,000 new cases nationwide on Thursday, the numbers dropped to about 15,424 on Tuesday. In Gauteng province — South Africa’s most populous with 16 million people, including the largest city, Johannesburg, and the capital, Pretoria — the decrease started earlier and has continued. Read:U.S. announces first recorded Omicron-related death “The drop in new cases nationally combined with the sustained drop in new cases seen here in Gauteng province, which for weeks has been the center of this wave, indicates that we are past the peak," Marta Nunes, senior researcher at the Vaccines and Infectious Diseases Analytics department of the University of Witwatersrand, told The Associated Press. “It was a short wave ... and the good news is that it was not very severe in terms of hospitalizations and deaths,” she said. It is "not unexpected in epidemiology that a very steep increase, like what we saw in November, is followed by a steep decrease.”  Gauteng province saw its numbers start sharply rising in mid-November. Scientists doing genetic sequencing quickly identified the new, highly mutated omicron variant that was announced to the world on Nov. 25. Significantly more transmissible, omicron quickly achieved dominance in South Africa. An estimated 90% of COVID-19 cases in Gauteng province since mid-November have been omicron, according to tests. And the world seems to be quickly following, with omicron already surpassing the delta variant as the dominant coronavirus strain in some countries. In the U.S., omicron accounted for 73% of new infections last week, health officials said — and the variant is responsible for an estimated 90% or more of new infections in the New York area, the Southeast, the industrial Midwest and the Pacific Northwest. Confirmed coronavirus cases in the U.K. have surged by 60% in a week as omicron overtook delta as the dominant variant there. Worldwide, the variant has been detected in at least 89 countries, according to the World Health Organization. In South Africa, experts worried that the sheer volume of new infections would overwhelm the country's hospitals, even though omicron appears to cause milder disease, with significantly less hospitalizations, patients needing oxygen and deaths. But then cases in Gauteng started falling. After reaching 16,000 new infections on Dec. 12, the province's numbers have steadily dropped, to just over 3,300 cases Tuesday. “It's significant. It's very significant,” Dr. Fareed Abdullah said of the decrease. Read: Omicron sweeps across nation, now 73% of new US COVID cases “The rapid rise of new cases has been followed by a rapid fall and it appears we're seeing the beginning of the decline of this wave,” said Abdullah, working in the COVID-19 ward at Pretoria's Steve Biko Academic Hospital. In another sign that South Africa’s omicron surge may be receding, a study of health care professionals who tested positive for COVID-19 at Chris Hani Baragwanath hospital in Soweto shows a rapid increase and then a quick decline in cases. “Two weeks ago we were seeing more than 20 new cases per day and now it is about five or six cases per day,” Nunes said. But, she said, it is still very early and there are several factors that must be closely watched. South Africa's positivity rate has remained high at 29%, up from just 2% in early November, indicating the virus is still circulating among the population at relatively high levels, she said. And the country's holiday season is now underway, when many businesses close down for a month and people travel to visit family, often in rural areas. This could accelerate omicron’s spread across South Africa and to neighboring countries, experts said. "In terms of the massive everyday doubling that we were seeing just over a week ago with huge numbers, that seems to have settled,” said Professor Veronica Uekermann, head of the COVID-19 response team at Steve Biko Academic Hospital. “But it is way too early to suggest that we have passed the peak. There are too many external factors, including the movement during the holiday season and the general behavior during this period,” she said, noting that infections spiked last year after the holiday break. It's summertime in South Africa and many gatherings are outdoors, which may make a difference between the omicron-driven wave here and the surges in Europe and North America, where people tend to gather indoors. Another unknown factor is how much omicron has spread among South Africans without causing disease. Some health officials in New York have suggested that because South Africa appears to have experienced a quick, mild wave of omicron, the variant may behave similarly there and elsewhere in the U.S. But Nunes cautions against jumping to those conclusions.  “Each setting, each country is different. The populations are different. The demographics of the population, the immunity is different in different countries,” she said. South Africa's population, with an average age of 27, is more youthful than many Western countries, for instance. Most of the patients currently being treated for COVID-19 in hospitals are unvaccinated, Uekermann emphasized. About 40% of adult South Africans have been inoculated with two doses. “All my patients in ICU are unvaccinated," Uekermann said. “So our vaccinated people are doing better in this wave, for sure. We have got some patients who are very ill with severe COVID, and these are unvaccinated patients.”

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa is receiving treatment for mild COVID-19 symptoms after testing positive for the disease Sunday, his office said. Ramaphosa started feeling unwell and a test confirmed COVID-19, a statement from the presidency announced. Read:South African doctors see signs omicron is milder than delta He is self-isolating in Cape Town and is being monitored by the South African Military Health Service, the statement said. He has delegated all responsibilities to Deputy President David Mabuza for the next week. Ramaphosa, 69, is fully vaccinated. The statement didn’t say whether he had been infected with the omicron coronavirus variant. Last week, Ramaphosa visited four West African countries. He and all members of his delegation were tested for COVID-19 in each of the countries during the trip. Some in the delegation tested positive in Nigeria and returned directly to South Africa. Throughout the rest of the trip, Ramaphosa and his delegation tested negative. Ramaphosa returned from Senegal on Dec. 8 Ramaphosa said his own infection serves as a caution to all people in South Africa to be vaccinated and remain vigilant against exposure, the statement said. Vaccination remains the best protection against severe illness and hospitalization, it said. People in South Africa who have had contact with Ramaphosa on Sunday are advised to watch for symptoms or to have themselves tested, it said. South Africa is currently battling a rapid resurgence driven by the omicron variant, health officials say. Read:Omicron may be driving S Africa's surge; wary world watches The country recorded more than 18,000 new confirmed cases Sunday night. More than 70% of the cases are estimated to be from omicron, according to genetic sequencing surveys. After a period of low transmission of about 200 new cases per day in early November, South Africa COVID-19 cases began rising dramatically. On Nov. 25, scientists in southern Africa confirmed the omicron variant, which has more than 50 mutations. Omicron appears to be highly transmissible and has quickly become dominant in the country. So far, the majority of cases have been relatively mild and the percentage of severe cases needing oxygen have been low, say doctors.

As the omicron variant sweeps through South Africa, Dr. Unben Pillay is seeing dozens of sick patients a day. Yet he hasn't had to send anyone to the hospital. That's one of the reasons why he, along with other doctors and medical experts, suspect that the omicron version really is causing milder COVID-19 than delta, even if it seems to be spreading faster. "They are able to manage the disease at home," Pillay said of his patients. "Most have recovered within the 10 to 14-day isolation period." said Pillay. And that includes older patients and those with health problems that can make them more vulnerable to becoming severely ill from a coronavirus infection, he said. In the two weeks since omicron first was reported in Southern Africa, other doctors have shared similar stories. All caution that it will take many more weeks to collect enough data to be sure, their observations and the early evidence offer some clues. According to South Africa's National Institute for Communicable Diseases: — Only about 30% of those hospitalized with COVID-19 in recent weeks have been seriously ill, less than half the rate as during the first weeks of previous pandemic waves. — Average hospital stays for COVID-19 have been shorter this time - about 2.8 days compared to eight days. — Just 3% of patients hospitalized recently with COVID-19 have died, versus about 20% in the country's earlier outbreaks. "At the moment, virtually everything points toward it being milder disease," Willem Hanekom, director of the Africa Health Research Institute, said, citing the national institute's figures and other reports. "It's early days, and we need to get the final data. Often hospitalizations and deaths happen later, and we are only two weeks into this wave." In the meantime, scientists around the world are watching case counts and hospitalization rates, while testing to see how well current vaccines and treatments hold up. While delta is still the dominant coronavirus strain worldwide, omicron cases are popping up in dozens of countries, with South Africa the epicenter. Pillay practices in the country's Gauteng province, where the omicron version has taken hold. With 16 million residents, It's South Africa's most populous province and includes the largest city, Johannesburg, and the capital, Pretoria. Gauteng saw a 400% rise in new cases in the first week of December, and testing shows omicron is responsible for more than 90% of them, according to health officials. Pillay says his COVID-19 patients during the last delta wave "had trouble breathing and lower oxygen levels. Many needed hospitalization within days," he said. The patients he's treating now have milder, flu-like symptoms, such as body aches and a cough, he said. Pillay is a director of an association representing some 5,000 general practitioners across South Africa, and his colleagues have documented similar observations about omicron. Netcare, the largest private healthcare provider, is also reporting less severe cases of COVID-19. But the number of cases is climbing. South Africa confirmed 22,400 new cases on Thursday and 19,000 on Friday, up from about 200 per day a few weeks ago. The new surge has infected 90,000 people in the past month, Minister of Health Joe Phaahla said Friday. "Omicron has driven the resurgence," Phaahla said, citing studies that say 70% of the new cases nationwide are from omicron. The coronavirus reproduction rate in the current wave - indicating the number of people likely to be infected by one person — is 2.5, the highest that South Africa has recorded during the pandemic, he said. "Because this is such a transmissible variant, we're seeing increases like we never saw before," said Waasila Jassat, who tracks hospital data for the National Institute for Communicable Diseases. Of the patients hospitalized in the current wave, 86% weren't vaccinated against the coronavirus, Jassat said. The COVID-patients in South Africa's hospitals now also are younger than at other periods of the pandemic: about two-thirds are under 40. Jassat said that even though the early signs are that omicron cases are less severe, the volume of new COVID-19 cases may still overwhelm South Africa's hospitals and result in a higher number of severe symptoms and deaths. "That is the danger always with the waves," she said.

 As the omicron variant sweeps through South Africa, Dr. Unben Pillay is seeing dozens of sick patients a day. Yet he hasn’t had to send anyone to the hospital. That’s one of the reasons why he, along with other doctors and medical experts, suspect that the omicron version really is causing milder COVID-19 than delta, even if it seems to be spreading faster. “They are able to manage the disease at home," Pillay said of his patients. "Most have recovered within the 10 to 14-day isolation period.” said Pillay. Also read: Omicron v. delta: Battle of coronavirus mutants is critical And that includes older patients and those with health problems that can make them more vulnerable to becoming severely ill from a coronavirus infection, he said. In the two weeks since omicron first was reported in Southern Africa, other doctors have shared similar stories. All caution that it will take many more weeks to collect enough data to be sure, their observations and the early evidence offer some clues. According to South Africa’s National Institute for Communicable Diseases: — Only about 30% of those hospitalized with COVID-19 in recent weeks have been seriously ill, less than half the rate as during the first weeks of previous pandemic waves. — Average hospital stays for COVID-19 have been shorter this time - about 2.8 days compared to eight days. — Just 3% of patients hospitalized recently with COVID-19 have died, versus about 20% in the country's earlier outbreaks. “At the moment, virtually everything points toward it being milder disease,” Willem Hanekom, director of the Africa Health Research Institute, said, citing the national institute's figures and other reports. “It's early days, and we need to get the final data. Often hospitalizations and deaths happen later, and we are only two weeks into this wave.” In the meantime, scientists around the world are watching case counts and hospitalization rates, while testing to see how well current vaccines and treatments hold up. While delta is still the dominant coronavirus strain worldwide, omicron cases are popping up in dozens of countries, with South Africa the epicenter. Also read: Omicron not ‘less dangerous’; it’s matter of time for Bangladesh to get a case: Experts Pillay practices in the country's Gauteng province, where the omicron version has taken hold. With 16 million residents, It's South Africa's most populous province and includes the largest city, Johannesburg, and the capital, Pretoria. Gauteng saw a 400% rise in new cases in the first week of December, and testing shows omicron is responsible for more than 90% of them, according to health officials. Pillay says his COVID-19 patients during the last delta wave "had trouble breathing and lower oxygen levels. Many needed hospitalization within days,” he said. The patients he’s treating now have milder, flu-like symptoms, such as body aches and a cough, he said. Pillay is a director of an association representing some 5,000 general practitioners across South Africa, and his colleagues have documented similar observations about omicron. Netcare, the largest private healthcare provider, is also reporting less severe cases of COVID-19. But the number of cases is climbing. South Africa confirmed 22,400 new cases on Thursday and 19,000 on Friday, up from about 200 per day a few weeks ago. The new surge has infected 90,000 people in the past month, Minister of Health Joe Phaahla said Friday. “Omicron has driven the resurgence,” Phaahla said, citing studies that say 70% of the new cases nationwide are from omicron. The coronavirus reproduction rate in the current wave - indicating the number of people likely to be infected by one person — is 2.5, the highest that South Africa has recorded during the pandemic, he said. “Because this is such a transmissible variant, we’re seeing increases like we never saw before,” said Waasila Jassat, who tracks hospital data for the National Institute for Communicable Diseases. Of the patients hospitalized in the current wave, 86% weren't vaccinated against the coronavirus, Jassat said. The COVID-patients in South Africa's hospitals now also are younger than at other periods of the pandemic: about two-thirds are under 40. Jassat said that even though the early signs are that omicron cases are less severe, the volume of new COVID-19 cases may still overwhelm South Africa's hospitals and result in a higher number of severe symptoms and deaths. “That is the danger always with the waves," she said.

Dr. Sikhulile Moyo was analyzing COVID-19 samples in his lab in Botswana last week when he noticed they looked startlingly different from others. Within days, the world was ablaze with the news  that the coronavirus had a new variant of concern, which appears to be driving a dramatic surge in South Africa, providing a glimpse of where the pandemic might be headed. New cases in South Africa have burgeoned from about 200 a day in mid-November to more than 11,500 on Thursday. In the week since omicron was discovered to be present in the country's most populous province, Gauteng, infections have surged 300%, Health Minister Joe Phaahla said Friday. The variant has also now spread to all of the other eight provinces, he added. Even with the rapid increase, infections are still below the 25,000 daily new cases that South Africa reported in the previous surge in June and July. Little is known about the new variant, but the spike in South Africa suggests it might be more contagious, said Moyo, the scientist who may have been the first to identify the new variant, though researchers in neighboring South Africa were close on his heels. Omicron has more than 50 mutations — and scientists have called it a big jump in the evolution of the virus. Read: India reports first two Covid cases of Omicron variant It's not clear if the variant causes more serious illness or can evade the protection of vaccines. Phaahla noted that only a small number of people who have been vaccinated have gotten sick, mostly with mild cases, while the vast majority of those who have been hospitalized were not vaccinated. South Africa's hospitals are so far coping with the new surge, he said. Even hospitals in Gauteng province, which accounts for more than 70% of all new daily infections, have the capacity to handle the new admissions, he said. This picture could change because most of those infected thus far have been younger people, who generally do not get as sick as older patients. But Moyo expressed hope that vaccines would not be sidelined by the new variant. "I have a lot of hope from the data that we see, that those vaccinated should be able to have a lot of protection," he said. That dovetails with what officials from the World Health Organization in Asia said Friday. While warning that cases could well rise quickly because of omicron, Dr. Takeshi Kasai, the WHO regional director for the Western Pacific, said the measures used against the delta variant — which itself caused surges the world over — should remain at the core of the response. "The positive news in all of this is that none of the information we have currently about omicron suggests we need to change the directions of our response," Kasai told reporters. Read: US reports 1st case of omicron variant in returning traveler That means continuing to push for higher vaccination rates, abiding by social-distancing guidelines, and wearing masks, among other measures, said WHO Regional Emergency Director Dr. Babatunde Olowokure. While more than three dozen countries worldwide have reported omicron infections, the numbers so far are small outside of South Africa. That has led many countries to race to impose travel restrictions on visitors from southern Africa — a move the WHO officials said may buy some time, though the agency has previoulsy urged against border closures. The travel restrictions have been severely criticized by South Africa, which says it is being punished for being transparent and moving so quickly to alert the world to omicron. WHO said it was notified by the country on Nov. 24 about the new variant. "What we must reemphasize is that while our scientists and those in Botswana were the first discover and report on the variant, no one knows where it originated," Phaahla said.

The overcast, drizzly skies match the somber mood at the Tshwane University of Technology, a hot spot in South Africa's latest surge of COVID-19 cases, apparently driven by the new omicron variant that is leading countries around the world to impose new restrictions. After several students tested positive, the university postponed some exams, and officials in the larger metropolitan area of Tshwane, which includes the capital of Pretoria, are pushing vaccinations, especially among younger adults who have been slow to get the shots. At TUT, as the university is known, few students wanted to speak about the new variant that has cast a pall. Many were not vaccinated — only 22% of 18- to 34-year-olds in South Africa are — and some seemed to be rethinking that, though notably the university's vaccination center was closed for the weekend. Manqoba Zitha, a student who has gotten the shot, said he will be pushing fellow classmates to do the same. "I'm trying to encourage them so that they can vaccinate, so they can stay away from coronavirus because it's there, it's killing people, and now numbers are rising," said Zitha. "Now when we are watching TV we can see that people are getting coronavirus. So they must vaccinate!" Nearly two years into the pandemic, the world is racing to contain the latest variant, first identified in southern Africa but popping up around the globe. Countries are imposing restrictions or bans on travelers from several countries — much to the South African government's dismay — and re-imposing measures like mask mandates that some hoped were a thing of the past. The World Health Organization named the new version of the virus "omicron" and classified it as a highly transmissible variant of concern, though its actual risks are not yet understood. Early evidence suggests it poses an increased risk that people who have already had COVID-19 could catch it again, the WHO said. It could take weeks to know if current vaccines are less effective against it. READ: What is this new COVID variant in South Africa? Still, some experts are hopeful that vaccines will be at least somewhat effective at preventing serious illness and death — and continue to encourage people to get inoculated. Gauteng province — home to Pretoria and South Africa's largest city of Johannesburg — is the center of the new surge. So far, cases there appear to be mild, according to doctors, and hospital admissions have not spiked. But experts warn the early round of infections has been among the young and the situation may become more serious if the new surge affects older, unvaccinated South Africans. In all, 41% of those aged 18 and over are vaccinated — but young people have been particularly slow to step forward. At least three South African universities — the University of Cape Town, Johannesburg's University of the Witwatersrand and the University of Free State in Bloemfontein — have announced that vaccinations will be mandatory for students starting next year. Some experts think further measures will be needed. "I do think that the decision that South Africa is going to have to make is probably around mandatory vaccination," said Mosa Moshabela, professor of public health at the University of KwaZulu-Natal in Durban. Demand for the vaccine has been so sluggish that the government recently requested slower deliveries to allow it time to use up its current stock of 19 million doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech and Johnson & Johnson shots. A new surge was long anticipated and even a new variant, but the speed with which omicron hit came as a "shock" to South Africa's health experts. While numbers of confirmed cases are still relatively low, they have been increasing at a high rate. The new spike started after some student parties in Pretoria. Numbers quickly jumped from a few hundred cases a day to thousands. South Africa announced 3,220 new cases Saturday, of which 82% are in Gauteng, according to the National Institute for Communicable Diseases. That's still well below the peak of the last wave, when more than 25,000 were confirmed in a day. READ: World races to contain new COVID threat, the omicron variant As many as 90% of the new cases in Gauteng province are caused by omicron, Tulio de Oliveira, director of the KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform, said in a tweet,  citing the results of diagnostic tests. "We did expect that we may see a new or a different variant gaining momentum in the fourth wave ... but we did not really expect to see a variant with the kind of multiplicity of mutations. And that is capable of becoming highly transmissible and escape or evade immunity at the same time," said Moshabela, the expert from the University of KwaZulu-Natal. "This was really the shock that we had." Although the current cases are concentrated in Pretoria and Johannesburg, tests show that omicron is already in all of South Africa's nine provinces. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa met over the weekend with health officials and is scheduled to address the nation on Sunday night about the increased cases. Back at TUT, Nhlanhla Africa Maphosa, a 25-year-old management student, is still trying to digest the news and what it will mean for his studies.   "It was just last week when they checked stats then they realize that so many students were affected by COVID-19 at the main campus," Maphosa said. "We're not that sure of the stats. ... But what we can say is that a high level or a high percentage of students has got COVID-19."

Worried scientists in South Africa are scrambling to combat the lightning spread across the country of the new and highly transmissible omicron COVID-19 variant as the world grapples with its emergence. In the space of two weeks, the omicron variant has sent South Africa from a period of low transmission to rapid growth of new confirmed cases. The country's numbers are still relatively low, with 2,828 new confirmed cases recorded Friday, but omicron's speed in infecting young South Africans has alarmed health professionals. "We're seeing a marked change in the demographic profile of patients with COVID-19," Rudo Mathivha, head of the intensive care unit at Soweto's Baragwanath Hospital, told an online press briefing. "Young people, in their 20s to just over their late 30s, are coming in with moderate to severe disease, some needing intensive care. About 65% are not vaccinated and most of the rest are only half-vaccinated," said Mathivha. "I'm worried that as the numbers go up, the public health care facilities will become overwhelmed." She said urgent preparations are needed to enable public hospitals to cope with a potential large influx of patients needing intensive care. "We know we have a new variant," said Mathivha. "The worst case scenario is that it hits us like delta ... we need to have critical care beds ready." READ: What is this new COVID variant in South Africa? What looked like a cluster infection among some university students in Pretoria ballooned into hundreds of new cases and then thousands, first in the capital city and then to nearby Johannesburg, South Africa's largest city. Studying the surge, scientists identified the new variant that diagnostic tests indicate is likely responsible for as many as 90% of the new cases, according to South Africa's health officials. Early studies show that it has a reproduction rate of 2 — meaning that every person infected by it is likely to spread it to two other people. The new variant has a high number of mutations that appear to make it more transmissible and help it evade immune responses. The World Health Organization looked at the data on Friday and named the variant omicron, under its system of using Greek letters, calling it a highly transmissible variant of concern. "It's a huge concern. We all are terribly concerned about this virus," Professor Willem Hanekom, director of the Africa Health Research Institute, told The Associated Press. "This variant is mostly in Gauteng province, the Johannesburg area of South Africa. But we've got clues from diagnostic tests ... that suggest that this variant is already all over South Africa," said Hanekom, who is also co-chair of the South African COVID Variant Research Consortium. "The scientific reaction from within South Africa is that we need to learn as much as soon as possible. We know precious little," he said. "For example, we do not know how virulent this virus is, which means how bad is this disease that it causes?" A key factor is vaccination. The new variant appears to be spreading most quickly among those who are unvaccinated. Currently, only about 40% of adult South Africans are vaccinated, and the number is much lower among those in the 20 to 40-year-old age group. READ: World races to contain new COVID threat, the omicron variant South Africa has nearly 20 million doses of vaccines — made by Pfizer and Johnson & Johnson — but the numbers of people getting vaccines is about 120,000 per day, far below the government's target of 300,000 per day. As scientists try to learn more about omicron, the people of South Africa can take measures to protect themselves against it, said Hanekom. "This is a unique opportunity. There's still time for people who did not get vaccinated to go and get the vaccine, and that will provide some protection, we believe, against this infection, especially protection against severe infection, severe disease and death," he said. "So I would call on people to vaccinate if they can."

WHAT IS THIS NEW COVID-19 VARIANT? South African scientists identified a new version of the coronavirus this week that they say is behind a recent spike in COVID-19 infections in Gauteng, the country’s most populous province. It’s unclear where the new variant first emerged, but scientists in South Africa first alerted the World Health Organization and it has now been seen in travelers to Belgium, Botswana, Hong Kong and Israel. Health Minister Joe Phaahla said the variant was linked to an “exponential rise” of cases in the last few days, although experts are still trying to determine if the new variant is actually responsible. From just over 200 new confirmed cases per day in recent weeks, South Africa saw the number of new daily cases rocket to 2,465 on Thursday. Struggling to explain the sudden rise in cases, scientists studied virus samples from the outbreak and discovered the new variant. In a statement on Friday, the WHO designated it as a “variant of concern,” naming it “omicron” after a letter in the Greek alphabet. After convening a group of experts to assess the data, the U.N. health agency said that “preliminary evidence suggests an increased risk of reinfection with this variant,” as compared to other variants. “The number of cases of this variant appears to be increasing in almost all provinces in South Africa,” the WHO said. WHY ARE SCIENTISTS WORRIED ABOUT THIS NEW VARIANT? It appears to have a high number of mutations — about 30 — in the coronavirus’ spike protein, which could affect how easily it spreads to people. Sharon Peacock, who has led genetic sequencing of COVID-19 in Britain at the University of Cambridge, said the data so far suggest the new variant has mutations “consistent with enhanced transmissibility,” but said that “the significance of many of the mutations is still not known.” READ: 7 cases of Indian Covid variant detected in Nawabganj: Doctor Lawrence Young, a virologist at the University of Warwick, described omicron as “the most heavily mutated version of the virus we have seen,” including potentially worrying changes never before seen all in the same virus. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the U.S.′ top infectious diseases doctor, said American officials had arranged a call with their South African counterparts later on Friday to find out more details and said there was no indication the variant had yet arrived in the U.S. WHAT’S KNOWN AND NOT KNOWN ABOUT THE VARIANT? Scientists know that omicron is genetically distinct from previous variants including the beta and delta variants, but do not know if these genetic changes make it any more transmissible or dangerous. So far, there is no indication the variant causes more severe disease. It will likely take weeks to sort out if omicron is more infectious and if vaccines are still effective against it. Peter Openshaw, a professor of experimental medicine at Imperial College London said it was “extremely unlikely” that current vaccines wouldn’t work, noting they are effective against numerous other variants. Even though some of the genetic changes in omicron appear worrying, it’s still unclear if they will pose a public health threat. Some previous variants, like the beta variant, initially alarmed scientists but didn’t end up spreading very far. “We don’t know if this new variant could get a toehold in regions where delta is,” said Peacock of the University of Cambridge. “The jury is out on how well this variant will do where there are other variants circulating.” To date, delta is by far the most predominant form of COVID-19, accounting for more than 99% of sequences submitted to the world’s biggest public database. HOW DID THIS NEW VARIANT ARISE? The coronavirus mutates as it spreads and many new variants, including those with worrying genetic changes, often just die out. Scientists monitor COVID-19 sequences for mutations that could make the disease more transmissible or deadly, but they cannot determine that simply by looking at the virus. Peacock said the variant “may have evolved in someone who was infected but could then not clear the virus, giving the virus the chance to genetically evolve,” in a scenario similar to how experts think the alpha variant — which was first identified in England — also emerged, by mutating in an immune-compromised person. ARE THE TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS BEING IMPOSED BY SOME COUNTRIES JUSTIFIED? Maybe. As of noon Friday, travelers arriving in the U.K. from South Africa, Namibia, Botswana, Lesotho, Eswatini and Zimbabwe will have to self-isolate for 10 days. European Union nations also moved quickly on Friday to ban air travel from southern Africa, and the U.S. also said it would ban travel from South Africa and seven other African nations by non-US citizens beginning Monday. Given the recent rapid rise in COVID-19 in South Africa, restricting travel from the region is “prudent” and would buy authorities more time, said Neil Ferguson, an infectious diseases expert at Imperial College London. READ: People need to be informed about Covid variants: Raushon Jeffrey Barrett, director of COVID-19 Genetics at the Wellcome Sanger Institute, thought that the early detection of the new variant could mean restrictions taken now would have a bigger impact than when the delta variant first emerged “With delta, it took many, many weeks into India’s terrible wave before it became clear what was going on and delta had already seeded itself in many places in the world and it was too late to do anything about it,” he said. “We may be at an earlier point with this new variant so there may still be time to do something about it.”

A new coronavirus variant has been detected in South Africa that scientists say is a concern because of its high number of mutations and rapid spread among young people in Gauteng, the country's most populous province, Health Minister Joe Phaahla announced Thursday. The coronavirus evolves as it spreads and many new variants, including those with worrying mutations, often just die out. Scientists monitor for possible changes that could be more transmissible or deadly, but sorting out whether new variants will have a public health impact can take time. South Africa has seen a dramatic rise in new infections, Phaahla said at an online press briefing. “Over the last four or five days, there has been more of an exponential rise,” he said, adding that the new variant appears to be driving the spike in cases. Scientists in South Africa are working to determine what percentage of the new cases have been caused by the new variant. Currently identified as B.1.1.529, the new variant has also been found in Botswana and Hong Kong in travelers from South Africa, he said. Also read: Can new variants of the coronavirus keep emerging? The World Health Organization's technical working group is to meet Friday to assess the new variant and may decide whether or not to give it a name from the Greek alphabet. The British government announced that it was banning flights from South Africa and five other southern African countries effective at noon (1200GMT) on Friday, and that anyone who had recently arrived from those countries would be asked to take a coronavirus test. U.K. Health Secretary Sajid Javid said there were concerns the new variant “may be more transmissible” than the dominant delta strain, and “the vaccines that we currently have may be less effective" against it. The new variant has a “constellation” of new mutations, said Tulio de Oliveira, from the Network for Genomic Surveillance in South Africa, who has tracked the spread of the delta variant in the country. The "very high number of mutations is a concern for predicted immune evasion and transmissibility,” said de Oliveira. “This new variant has many, many more mutations," including more than 30 to the spike protein that affects transmissibility, he said. "We can see that the variant is potentially spreading very fast. We do expect to start seeing pressure in the healthcare system in the next few days and weeks.” De Oliveira said that a team of scientists from seven South African universities is studying the variant. They have 100 whole genomes of it and expect to have many more in the next few days, he said. “We are concerned by the jump in evolution in this variant," he said. The one piece of good news is that it can be detected by a PCR test, he said. After a period of relatively low transmission in which South Africa recorded just over 200 new confirmed cases per day, in the past week the daily new cases rapidly increased to more than 1,200 on Wednesday. On Thursday they jumped to 2,465. Also read: Global Covid cases approaching 207 mln as concerns mount over Delta variant The first surge was in Pretoria and the surrounding Tshwane metropolitan area and appeared to be cluster outbreaks from student gatherings at universities in the area, said health minister Phaahla. Amid the rise in cases, scientists studied the genomic sequencing and discovered the new variant. “This is clearly a variant that we must be very serious about,” said Ravindra Gupta, professor of clinical microbiology at the University of Cambridge. “It has a high number of spike mutations that could affect transmissibility and immune response.” Gupta said scientists in South Africa need time to determine if the surge in new cases is attributable to the new variant. “There is a high probability that this is the case," he said. “South African scientists have done an incredible job of identifying this quickly and bringing it to the world's attention.” South African officials had warned that a new resurgence was expected from mid-December to early January and had hoped to prepare for that by getting many more people vaccinated, said Phaahla. About 41% of South Africa's adults have been vaccinated and the number of shots being given per day is relatively low, at less than 130,000, significantly below the government's target of 300,000 per day. South Africa currently has about 16.5 million doses of vaccines, by Pfizer and Johnson & Johnson, in the country and is expecting delivery of about 2.5 million more in the next week, according to Nicholas Crisp, acting director-general of the national health department. “We are getting in vaccines faster than we are using them at the moment,” said Crisp. “So for some time now, we have been deferring deliveries, not decreasing orders, but just deferring our deliveries so that we don’t accumulate and stockpile vaccines.” South Africa, with a population of 60 million, has recorded more than 2.9 million COVID-19 cases including more than 89,000 deaths. To date, the delta variant remains by far the most infectious and has crowded out other once-worrying variants including alpha, beta and mu. According to sequences submitted by countries worldwide to the world’s biggest public database, more than 99% are delta.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is already a veteran at surprising the world in just three years in power. He's done it again this week by announcing that, after a year of waging war, he will lead it from the battlefront. Abiy’s rule has been short in the vast sweep of Ethiopian history, but he has spent almost all his life preparing for it. Told as a child by his mother that she believed he would lead Ethiopia, he now speaks of martyrdom, if needed, to hold the nation together. Abiy rocketed to office out of seemingly nowhere in 2018 with vows of dramatic reforms to a long-repressive national government. He also announced he would make peace with neighboring Eritrea after years of bitter conflict. For that, the youthful prime minister was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. Then, less than a year later, Abiy announced his military was at war with the leaders of Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region, who had dominated the previous national government but quickly found friction with the prime minister. Political differences turned to gunfire in November 2020. Read: People fleeing Ethiopia allege attacks, forced conscription Tens of thousands of people have been killed since then, and close to half a million people inside Tigray now face the world’s worst famine crisis in a decade, one that the United States has called “entirely man-made.” The 45-year-old Abiy has now plunged into the fight, arriving at the battlefront on Tuesday, a government spokesman said. The prime minister is no stranger to war. As a teenager, he joined fighters who eventually overthrew the country’s Marxist Derg regime, then signed up for the new government's military. He took part in Ethiopia’s war against Eritrea as a radio operator, serving at the border in Tigray, and later became a lieutenant colonel. Now roles are dramatically reversed. The Tigray fighters Abiy once called friends are now the enemy, and the Eritrean soldiers he once fought have been allowed to join the war as Ethiopia's allies. Years after his career turned from the military to politics, Abiy faces a battlefield challenge he has never faced before: Commanding an army. But the prime minister is known as a man with a sense of destiny. He “clearly has a personal sense of his right to be ruler of Ethiopia and take on the responsibility it entails,” said Christopher Clapham, a retired professor associated with the University of Cambridge. Overseeing the fracture of Ethiopia, a nation with a 3,000-year history, would be a “massive blow” to Abiy, Clapham said, and by heading to the battlefront he is following the tradition of emperors. Read:Urgent efforts to calm Ethiopia as war reaches one-year mark But emperors can fall, and governments, too. The rival Tigray forces, whose advance on Ethiopia’s capital in recent weeks prompted a national state of emergency, want to see Abiy gone, by force if needed. The deeply religious prime minister came to office preaching national unity, and representing it as well. The son of a Christian and Muslim and of mixed ethnic heritage, he shocked Africa's second-most populous country by apologizing for the past government's abuses. Tigrayans have recalled cheering him on, at first. “War is the epitome of hell for all involved,” Abiy said in his Nobel address in those earlier days. Now the hardened positions by the warring sides, each believing they can be victorious, have tested the efforts of mediators from the United States and African Union. Abiy believes the Tigray forces will be pushed back into their region, U.S. envoy Jeffrey Feltman said this week. But he added, “I question that confidence.” The war front, Feltman said, is edging closer to Ethiopia’s capital, with the Tigray fighters newly on the move toward Debre Sina, less than a day’s drive from Addis Ababa. The fighters are also trying to cut off a crucial supply line from neighboring Djibouti, a further threat to Africa’s diplomatic capital. Accordingly, a growing number of countries have told their citizens to leave immediately. And the U.S. has told Americans again and again that no Afghanistan-style evacuation is coming for them. The war, Abiy said in announcing his move to the battlefront, “is a struggle that determines whether we exist or not. But we will definitely win. It is unthinkable for Ethiopia to be defeated. We are in a time when it requires to lead the country by paying the sacrifice.” He called on fellow Ethiopians to meet him there.